We’ve gone over what to look at for team win totals and we took a look at a few specific cases last week. Today, we’ll take a look at a couple more win totals and some futures.
Note: all win totals and futures lines listed are sourced through 5Dimes
Seattle Seahawks: under 9 (-130)
2018 Record: 10-6
2018 Record in one-score games: 5-5
2018 Pythagorean Win Expectation: 9.9
2019 Strength of Schedule Rank: 13th-hardest
Adjusted Games Lost to Injury: 10th-fewest
- Seattle finished 2018 21st in net success rate and 25th in net yards per play against a schedule that ranked 11th-easiest in the NFL last season. This year Seattle is expected to face the 13th-toughest schedule. Seattle got many breaks when it came to their schedule last season. They technically only played seven true road games with one game in London against the Oakland Raiders, who were considered the home team. Seattle was afforded the luxury of facing the San Francisco 49ers twice without Jimmy Garoppolo and got to face the Arizona Cardinals in Josh Rosen’s starting debut.
- In 2018, Seattle played three home primetime games, going 3-0, while they only played one on the road, a loss at Chicago. This year, they play only two primetime home games with three games on the road. In addition, they only played two road 1 pm EST games (10 am Seattle time) and in both cases, they received extra rest the week prior to those road trips. This season, however, they play four road 1 pm EST games and will only have extra rest the week prior to one of them, at Cleveland.
- In 2018, Seattle benefited from a lot of luck in a few different statistical categories. They ranked second in fumble recovery rate, first in turnover margin, seventh in lowest opponent field goal percentage and had the 10th-fewest injuries according to Adjusted Games Lost. It is going to be very difficult for the Seahawks to replicate another season where all the luck factors are in their favor.
- Russell Wilson was amazing last season, posting an outstanding 8.2 percent touchdown rate, which ranked second in the NFL behind Patrick Mahomes. This was far and away Wilson’s best touchdown rate of his career, besting his 7.0 percent rate in 2015. Most likely, Wilson will not be able to replicate this again in 2019. Not only did Seattle lose its best receiver to retirement in Doug Baldwin, but Wilson’s touchdown output should drop just based on normal regression. There have been six other instances since 2004 when a quarterback posted a touchdown rate of at least 8.0 percent (Peyton Manning twice, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Nick Foles, and Deshaun Watson each once) and in every single case, the following season they posted a much lower touchdown rate output. Only one quarterback, Aaron Rodgers in 2012, finished with a touchdown rate higher than 7.0 percent. The average touchdown rate in the following season among those six QBs was only 6.1 percent. Combine this normal regression along with Wilson’s career 5.6 percent touchdown rate and you can safely bet on a drop-off.
- Seattle was 14th in sack rate last season but 13 of their 43 total sacks came from Frank Clark, who is now on the Kansas City Chiefs. The only replacement for Clark came in the way of Ziggy Ansah who has just 18 sacks in his last 34 games and missed nine games last season due to injury. Seattle did draft L.J. Collier in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft but it remains to be seen if he will have an immediate impact to make up for the loss of Clark. A lack of a pass rush is Seattle’s number one concern going into 2019.
Washington Redskins: under 6.5 (-130) and 9-1 to finish with the worst record in NFL
2018 Record: 7-9
2018 Record in one-score games: 4-1
2018 Pythagorean Win Expectation: 5.7
2019 Strength of Schedule Rank: 13th-easiest
Adjusted Games Lost to Injury: ninth-most
- The Redskins were one of the luckiest teams in the NFL last season and mainly benefitted while Alex Smith was the quarterback, who is likely to miss the entire 2019 after he suffered a catastrophic injury in Week 10 against the Houston Texans. Washington ended up 4-1 in one-score games, including 3-0 when Smith started and finished a game. There are a lot of criticisms about Smith but the one thing he is known for is protecting the football. In his 10 starts last year, the Redskins only turned the ball over five times while they forced 18 turnovers on defense. At the time of the Smith injury, they were 6-3 and had the No. 2 ranked TO margin in the NFL but that record was very misleading. Once he got hurt the TO margin flipped and in the final six games the Skins ended the season with a -2 margin, the worst in the NFL. The Skins ended the season with only one more victory.
- Washington finished 2018 24th in net success rate and 27th in net yards per play against a schedule that ranked 13th-easiest in the NFL. They also were very lucky with the third-best fumble recovery rate and the ninth-lowest opponent field goal percentage in the NFL. Based on point differential, Washington should have finished with 5.7 wins instead of the seven they did win.
- To replace Smith, Washington traded for Case Keenum and drafted Dwayne Haskins. Keenum should resemble his non-Vikings career much more so than what he showed in Minnesota, which looks more and more like a major anomaly. Haskins has potential but is very raw after only one full season at Ohio State. Washington faces the fifth-most difficult schedule in the first five weeks of 2019, so there is a good chance Haskins may start if the team doesn’t win games early.
- Washington’s most reliable wide receiver last year was Jamison Crowder, who left for the New York Jets in free agency. Without Crowder, Washington will not only have to replace their reliable slot receiver but also must improve on the 27th-ranked explosive pass play offense.
Philadelphia Eagles to win the Super Bowl (18-1)
- See Part I of the win totals article
Atlanta Falcons to win Super Bowl (38-1, best longshot Super Bowl value)
- The Falcons get to play their first nine games and 13 of 16 games overall in a dome. Their non-road dome games are all in warm weather climates in Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Los Angeles. The Falcons will have the best environment in the NFL to rack up points on offense with talent like Matt Ryan, a revamped offensive line with two 2019 round one draft picks and, of course, Julio Jones. Based on 2018 DVOA rankings, the Falcons are looking to face the sixth-easiest schedule of pass defenses in the NFL.
- Atlanta was very unlucky in several categories last season. They allowed opponent kickers to make 100 percent of their field goal attempts last season. That is a complete anomaly and is the first time that has occurred in the NFL since the Chargers did it in 2010. Also, Atlanta recovered fumbles at the second-lowest rate in the league. When Atlanta made the Super Bowl in 2016, they recovered the fourth-highest percentage of fumbles. Every lucky bounce matters.
- The defense and the injuries to the defense were the biggest issues for the Falcons last season. Atlanta ranked 31st in defensive DVOA and allowed the second-highest third-down conversion rate in the NFL. On third downs, the defense ranked 29th in success rate throwing to running backs and 31st to wide receivers. They allowed the highest target rate and 24th-highest yards per attempt to running backs out of the backfield in the NFL on third downs. This was a major issue and the loss of both safeties, Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal, as well as linebacker Deion Jones to injuries just destroyed this defense. These three starters missed a combined 38 games last season, which derailed the unit, especially against explosive offenses within the division like New Orleans, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. The Falcons can’t afford to have similar injuries again and likely won’t.
- The biggest reason for pause for Atlanta is their schedule in 2019. They are expected to face the fourth-toughest schedule based on win total projections. Not only do they have a tough division, but they will also face good opponents in Minnesota, Philadelphia, Seattle, Indianapolis, Houston, and the LA Rams.
- Because of the schedule, I believe there is a good amount of variance in Atlanta’s season outcomes. There is a chance that the brutal schedule catches up to Atlanta and they don’t make the playoffs. But with that offense, the abundance of dome and warm weather games to go with hopefully a much heathier defense, the Falcons have good value in 38-1 to win the Super Bowl.
