• Denver and their slow pace should stay within 7 against Green Bay
  • Minnesota’s historically excellent home ats record continues vs OAK
  • Expect Trubisky to bounce back against a poor Washington pass defense

For purposes of these articles, I will list the contest line as well as the most current line using 5Dimes sportsbook. I will note if the current line is playable or not. I have personally bet all of these sides unless otherwise noted. As always, shop for the best lines. 

YTD: 4-6 (40%)

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Denver +7.5 at Green Bay (Current Line: +7.5 -120)

 

  • Green Bay has a solid defense, ranking third-best in DVOA but they are a bit susceptible on the ground (14th in DVOA rush D). Dalvin Cook shredded the Packers defense for 154 yards rushing on 20 carries and a 55% success rate. Denver should lean on Philip Lindsay to keep the defense off-balanced.
  • Green Bay’s offense has really struggled so far, ranking 23rd in DVOA. I was skeptical the offensive coordinator on that Titans team last year would come in and totally revamp this offense and so far, that looks to be the case
  • For a team struggling to move the ball consistently, laying over 7 to a team that should keep the game low scoring and ranks No. 1 in the NFL in plays per drive, is too much 
  • Vic Fangio obviously knows this Green Bay offense well from his days with the Bears
  • As pointed out here by Rich Hribar, in the last 5 years riding with teams that start 0-2 against an opponent with at least one win are 24-8 ATS (75%). 13-2 ats when an underdog >3
  • I would take Denver at anything 7 or more

 

Minnesota -8.5 vs Oakland (Current Line: -8.5 -110)

 

  • The Vikings will be fully focused following a tough loss on the road in Green Bay. They know they tossed that game away.
  • Historically, the Vikings have been excellent at home against the spread under Mike Zimmer. Overall, since Zimmer took over in 2014, the Vikings cover at a 69% clip with only the Patriots having a better ATS record during this period at 70%. To put into perspective how good this is, the third-best team covered at 58%. As a home favorite, the Vikings have covered 68% of the time in that stretch with an average margin of victory of 7.4 points.
  • The real Oakland Raiders showed up last week against the Chiefs, as they were outgained 9.4 to 4.3 on a yards per play basis
  • Oakland has not covered a 1 pm EST game on the road since September 2017 at Tennessee. They have lost five straight by an average of 14 points per game and importantly have lost by an average of 8.9 points more than the point spread.

 

Saints +4 at Seattle (Current Line: +4.5 -110)

  • I believe this is some overreaction to the Drew Brees injury
  • Teddy Bridgewater will get a full week to prepare as the starting quarterback for the first time in a long time. He won’t take a lot of chances but also won’t make many mistakes.
  • I fully expect Sean Payton to utilize Taysom Hill much more this Sunday
  • Saints still employ Alvin Kamara, Jared Cook, and Michael Thomas against a Seattle defense that was shredded by Andy Dalton in Week 1 for 418 passing yards.
  • Last season, Seattle’s defense ranked 26th in success rate to RBs in the passing game and allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt at 7.2. So far offenses haven’t tried to exploit this, but I expect a really heavy dose of targets to Kamara.
  • The Seahawks typically play close to the vest with their heavy run game offense. It’s tough to cover over 3 points when you stick to the ground game so often.
  • Seattle’s offensive line currently ranks dead last in the NFL in pass blocking, according to PFF. The Saints currently own the No. 1 pass rush grade as a team by PFF. This is a major mismatch along the offensive and defensive fronts.

 

Steelers +6.5 at San Francisco (Current Line: +6.5 -110)

  • Normally this would be a spot where the Steelers would let down after losing their starting QB and having to fly across the country. But last week they rallied around Mason Rudolph and the Steelers front office showed they are still competing by trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick. I expect a highly motivated Steelers team.
  • The biggest fear backing the Steelers is having to face the creative offensive mind of Kyle Shanahan going up against Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Keith Butler. However, the Niners losing left tackle Joe Staley is a big deal and expect those Steeler defense ends to get pressure and cause major problems for the Niners.
  • The Steelers enter this game with the second-best pass rush grade, according to PFF. The Niners have a good OL and are in the top 5 in pass blocking. However, Staley is the best pass blocking lineman for the Niners and has not allowed a single hurry, hit, or sack so far.
  • The game last week against Seattle might have had a different outcome if not for Donte Moncrief taking a football to the face and causing an interception in Steeler territory. Luckily, Moncrief is finally being demoted and expect James Washington and Dionte Johnson to help stretch the field for Rudolph
  • This also fits another case of an 0-2 underdog going up against 2-0 to start the season

 

Bears -4 at Washington (Current Line: -4 -110)

 

  • After fading the Bears in the first two weeks, I love them in this spot on Monday night.
  • As mentioned in my write-up last week when I backed Denver, Mitch Trubisky was absolutely dreadful against top 10 pass defenses last year. He faced 5 top 10 pass defenses and only threw 3 TDs with 7 INTs and 5.6 yards per attempt. 
  • Washington currently ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA and Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott combined to complete 54-of-69 passes (78%), an 8.4 yards per attempt average, and 6 TDs with 1 INT over the first two weeks.
  • In 9 starts against pass defenses last year that did not finish in the top 10, Trubisky averaged 8.3 yards per attempt with 21 passing TDs and only 5 INTs.
  • The Bears defense led by Khalil Mack will expose the weak tackles for Washington. Mack already has 10 hurries on the season. He’d have many more sacks than just one so far if it wasn’t for Garrett Bolles holding Mack often last week. He was called for four holding penalties alone, all against Mack
  • There should be plenty of Bears fans in the stands in Washington and crowd noise will not be a factor at all.
  • I think this line should be closer to -6 so there is good value here in a get-right spot for the Bears.

Other sides and totals I have personally wagered on and I still like at the current number:

  • Bengals +6 over Buffalo
  • HOU/LA Chargers over 49