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It’s safe to say the Houston Texans have turned a corner.
Gone are the days of head coaches like David Culley and Lovie Smith and their 7-26-1 combined record.
The new regime of HC DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik has already taken the team to a divisional-round playoff appearance in year one, and they are primed to make another run.
In fact, Slowik’s scheme seems to mimic that of another coach who has seen his fair share of playoff success in recent years.
how can the Texans improve in 2024?
get OC Bobby Slowik to stop replicating Kyle Shanahan to a T
SF: 49% early down run, 67% into loaded boxes
HOU: 48% early down run, 65% into loaded boxes
BUT… SF was #1 on these runs… HOU was #28
lean more into YOUR strength: CJ Stroud pic.twitter.com/PEOMR8O1Vq
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 1, 2024
Slowik coached with Kyle Shanahan ever since they were together under Mike Shanahan in Washington back in 2011.
If you look at what Slowik was trying to do, just compare the 2023 Texans to the 2023 49ers in rates and ranks for the following.
Pass rate on early downs in the first half:
- 51% – 49ers (#28)
- 52% – Texans (#27)
Rate of stacked boxes faced on early downs:
- 67% – 49ers (#2)
- 65% – Texans (#5)
Both teams were running the ball a ton despite facing stacked boxes. And they were both getting elite production from their QBs when they did choose to pass vs. these heavier box looks.
HOWEVER, there is a major difference.
Rushing efficiency on these early downs.
49ers:
- #1 in success rate (44%)
- #1 in yards per rush (5.5)
- #1 in EPA/rush (+0.06)
Texans:
- #28 in success rate (29%)
- #27 in yards per rush (3.8)
- #22 in EPA/rush (-0.15)
When you don’t have a run game at all, you can’t simply try to duplicate what Kyle is doing in San Francisco with their MUCH BETTER running back, their MUCH BETTER offensive line, and their MUCH BETTER tight ends at run blocking.
You have to study what is happening after every game. Detect the patterns. Understand the trends. Make adjustments.
Like most rookies, C.J. Stroud was extremely sensitive to pressure, which is even more reason why the Texans needed to pass more frequently on early downs rather than expecting magic on third down when the pass rush was coming.
- Clean: 20 TDs, 69% comp, 9.2 YPA
- Pressured: 3 TDs, 52% comp, 6.0 YPA
Meanwhile, what was Stroud averaging on early down passes?
- #2 in EPA/att (+0.19)
- #2 in YPA (8.7)
- #7 in success rate (48%)
The Texans have made moves in recent months to remedy some of these personnel issues.
Their second and fourth-round picks in the 2024 draft were spent on OT Blake Fisher and TE Cade Stover, Stroud’s former Ohio State teammate.
Houston also resigned TE Dalton Shultz to a three-year deal in hopes of supplying Stroud with another familiar target and keeping pocket pressure to a minimum.
Whether these adjustments allow Slowik and the Texans to take their offense to the next level or lead Stroud straight into the jaws of a sophomore slump remains to be seen.
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Texans Over/Under Wins, 2024:
The Texans are predicted to win 9.5 games in 2024, based on win totals from Vegas Odds.
Why You Should Bet the Over: Texans Win Total in 2024
#1 Reason to Bet the Over:
C.J. Stroud was spectacular last season, especially when he was kept clean.
Stroud threw for 20 touchdowns, completed 69% of his passes, and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt when unpressured last season.
Like all quarterbacks, especially young ones, he was not as good under pressure, but he should continue improving with better weapons, a better offensive line, and more NFL experience.
#2 Reason to Bet Over:
The Texans’ front office was aggressive in adding talent this offseason.
Additions like Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon as well as retaining Dalton Schultz and Nico Collins will complete this star-studded offense.
They also retooled on defense by signing Danielle Hunter and Azeez Al-Shaair.
As they should with a quarterback on a rookie contract, Houston appears to be going all in.
» Bet the Texans Win Total Over
Why You Should Bet the Under: Texans Win Total in 2024
#1 Reason to Bet the Under:
The Texans ranked #6 in run rate in the first half of games last season.
Opponents would often stack the box on early downs, which shut down the running game (3.8 yards per carry) and forced Houston into unmanageable third downs.
This style of play calling was extremely inefficient. OC Bobby Slowik must adjust his early down play calling in 2024.
#2 Reason to Bet the Under:
Quarterback matchups could cause a problem for Houston.
They played the easiest schedule of QBs and offenses last season.
In 2024, they are projected to face the 10th-hardest schedule of QBs.
Their defense will need to step up to the task.
» Bet the Texans Win Total Under
