DAL Offense vs CHI Defense:
- This is an excellent matchup of the No. 2 ranked DVOA offense in Dallas against the No. 8 overall defense in the Bears.
- Dallas has the sixth-best run offense based on success rate and has done this against the ninth-toughest set of run defenses. Ezekiel Elliott has faced six run defenses ranked in the top 10 in success rate allowed. He has averaged 4.2 yards per carry in those games. Zeke is only averaging 4.4 YPC on the season overall and hasn’t topped 86 yards in four games. The Bears rank 12th in DVOA run defense but rank 18th in the NFL in success rate allowed since Week 7.
- Dak Prescott has faced three top 10 pass defenses in the Saints, Patriots, and Bills. He has completed 63% of his passes for 6.9 YPA, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs in those games. In all other games he has been great with 68% completions, 9 YPA, 21 TD and 8 INT. The Bears pass defense ranks eighth in the NFL.
- Amari Cooper has run hot and cold all season. He has only cleared 85 receiving yards once in the last five games. Chicago ranks eighth in yards allowed to No. 1 WRs. It could be pure coincidence but, for what it’s worth, Cooper has really struggled on the road. At home he has averaged 7.8 receptions for 126 yards but on the road, those numbers plummet to 2.8 receptions and only 35 yards.
- With Cooper struggling, Elliott has become a much bigger part of the pass game offense lately and has 11 passes for 106 yards in the last two games.
- Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb have both picked up their games lately as well. Gallup is averaging 5 receptions and 85 yards in the last four games. Cobb has been Dallas’s best WR of late, averaging 4 receptions and 90 yards in his last four games.
- Cobb will most likely be matched up against Buster Skrine in the slot. Skrine has disappointed as the slot CB in place of last year’s slot CB Bryce Callahan. Skrine ranks 48th among 71 CBs in yards per snap allowed in the slot. When also factoring in Cobb’s experience playing in cold weather, there is a legitimate chance that Cobb has the best game among Dallas WRs tonight.
CHI Offense vs DAL Defense:
- We all know the Bears, and especially Mitchell Trubisky, have really struggled this year on offense. However, it should be noted Trubisky’s passing splits are clear as day when it comes to predicting when he will be successful or not. Trubisky has played five games against pass defenses ranked 20th or worse and it’s not a surprise that four of his five best passer rating games have come against those bad pass defenses. The Bears are 4-1 in games where they have faced bottom 12 pass defenses this season with Trubisky at QB and 1-4 against top 19 pass defenses. The Dallas pass defense ranks 23rd in DVOA.
| Pass D Category | GMs | Comp% | Yds/Gm | YPA | TD | INT | W/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20th or worse | 5 | 70% | 255 | 7.6 | 10 | 5 | 4-1 |
| Top 19 | 5 | 58% | 183 | 4.8 | 3 | 2 | 1-4 |
- Just like last week against the Lions, there’s not a ton to say about the Bears’ RBs. In a potential smash spot against a bad run defense in the Lions last week, David Montgomery was just ok. He ran 16 times for 75 yards and a 4.7 YPC. That was the first game in six games where he averaged over 3.5 YPC. He did catch a TD pass last week but that was his first of the season and he is barely used out of the backfield.
- The Dallas pass defense has held its own against No. 1 WRs but has struggled the most against No. 2 and No. 3 WRs. As pointed out in last Thursday’s matchups column, look again for Anthony Miller to have a good game for the Bears. He has received at least 9 targets in three straight games and has averaged 7 receptions for 77 yards in that stretch. Miller is 11th in the NFL in snap percentage in the slot at 78%. Dallas’s slot DBs, Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis, have been mediocre at best, ranking 35th and 24th in passer rating out of 51 slot CBs.
- Dallas’s No. 1 CB, Byron Jones, should be able to slow down Allen Robinson enough to force Trubisky to look elsewhere, including looking towards Miller’s way.
- Javon Wims is a guy who could pick up some of the slack in the passing game with Taylor Gabriel out. He caught 5 for 56 last week. Wims is more of a possession WR than a big play speed guy, so he will be used underneath.
Side I like tonight: (Bears +3 -110 5Dimes)
I am on the Bears +3 tonight. I don’t think Dallas would be -9 at home here and that is what this line in Chicago is assuming. I think there is enough value for me to play them here. I like that Trubisky has played much better in the last month and, as cited above, plays so much better when facing a bottom 10 pass defense like the Cowboys. Dallas, on the other hand, has faced four top 10 defenses like the Bears and have scored a combined 56 points (14 points per game) in those games. This game sets up a lot like the one where the Cowboys lost by 5 at the Jets in Week 6.
