Each week during the 2021 NFL season, Sports Info Solutions will highlight the spread of three games including Monday Night Football.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
This is by no means a marquee matchup considering both teams enter Week 8 with four losses, but hear me out on this one. This slate of games isn’t the NFL’s best, so I’ll settle for some rookie quarterback intrigue and coaching hot seat schadenfreude. Both teams’ fanbases are becoming increasingly disgruntled with their respective head coaches, so this game has potential hiring cycle implications.
Trey Lance is unlikely to get the nod Sunday since he’s been limited in practice this week, but Justin Fields will be starting and that’s good enough for me. The rookie has drawn a lot of ire for what has been called a tendency to hold onto the ball for too long. His adjusted time to throw – which contextualizes time to throw using factors like the play concept – ranks 23rd and is slower than the NFL average, but not to the extent that the narrative would suggest.
His league-high sack rate (13%) is admittedly troublesome, but the Bears’ offensive line is also ceding pressure extremely quickly this year. They’re among the worst in the league in terms of blown block rate on pass plays and allow pressure faster than average, so they haven’t been helping Fields out very much.
Meanwhile, the 49ers defense has struggled to get to the quarterback in a timely manner. They have one of the lowest pressure rates in the league and rank 23rd in average time to pressure just behind the Lions, against whom Fields recorded his best pro performance yet. That was the only start in which Fields was not sacked multiple times, and also featured his highest single-game passing yardage total yet. It remains to be seen what will happen when a stoppable force meets a movable object, but this game has the potential to showcase what Fields can do when he’s not under fire early and often.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Arguably the best game of the week, this rivalry matchup is just one of two Week 8 games featuring two playoff teams as of right now (and the other we just saw on Thursday). That said, the scale does seem to be tipped in favor of the defending Super Bowl champions.
The Buccaneers are arguably the most complete team in the NFL, as they rank first in offensive Total Points and second in defensive Total Points per game. The Saints rank 19th and 6th in those metrics, respectively.
This game figures to feature a lot of aggressive passing. The seemingly immortal Tom Brady ranks first in the league in deep attempts (15+ yards), and Jameis Winston is his normally aggressive self, ranking third in average depth of target (9.2). They’ve both experienced mixed results throwing downfield, though, as they rank 14th and 18th in Independent Quarterback Rating on deep passes, respectively.
But one of these defenses is not like the other, and the Bucs should be able to affect Winston in the pocket. They rank fourth in the NFL in pressure rate, whereas their counterparts rank just 25th. Winston has been generally turnover-prone throughout his career, and the Tampa front might be able to compound that if they make him feel the heat.
The Saints rushing attack has been a strong point for them, as they rank fourth in rushing Total Points per game. This would appear to be a favorable matchup since the Bucs rank 20th in run defense Total Points, but that’s a bit misleading because teams don’t like to run on them. They’ve seen the fewest rushing attempts of any defense in the NFL, and rank third in Points Saved/Rush, so New Orleans’ resolve to run the ball will certainly be tested in this game.
The passing game matchup when the Bucs offense is on the field will also be something to watch. Tom Brady and company have the second-best passing offense by Total Points per game this year, and the Saints defense ranks a respectable 10th.
Tampa’s embarrassment of riches at the receiving position has proven troublesome for defenses. Antonio Brown (17th) and Mike Evans (23rd) both rank in the top 25 in receiving Total Points, and their third option, Chris Godwin (43rd) isn’t too shabby either. The Saints have spent the fifth-most snaps in man coverage so far this season, so it’ll be interesting to see what schematic adjustments New Orleans makes, if any. Having Antonio Brown out of the picture with injury would do a lot to make man coverage a viable option.
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs
It’s no secret that Patrick Mahomes and the 3-4 Chiefs are having something of a down year. And while Mahomes isn’t performing up to the lofty standards he’s created for himself, tales of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. His snap-to-snap efficiency is down this year – his current EPA/pass is at 64% of his prior career average – but he still ranks 12th in Passing Points Earned per Snap. A big part of the issue has been turnovers, like Mahomes’ 3.2% interception rate, which is not terrible but is way more than we’re used to from him. Besides that, he hasn’t been bad by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, the offense has been performing just fine, ranking 5th in offensive Total Points per game.
The problem is that when your team’s success depends on having the best offense in the league, as opposed to “just” a top-five offense, things can get ugly. And ugly the Chiefs defense has been. They rank second-worst in the NFL in Total Points per game on the defensive side of the ball. An NFL-worst 32% of opponent runs are going for a first down, and opponents have thrown for 8.7 yards/attempt against them, the third-worst mark in the league.
That’s good news for the Giants’ lackluster offense, which ranks 8th-worst in Total Points per game heading into Monday night’s contest. They’re in the third year of the Daniel Jones experiment, and the former Blue Devil ranks 25th in Passing Total Points after finishing 25th last year.
Despite the murkiness of their quarterback situation, rookie wide receiver Kadarius Toney has come on really strong for them before injury forced him to miss Week 7. Toney ranks first in Total Points/Route Run (0.14) among all players with 20+ targets. Toney has split time pretty evenly between the slot and out wide, but may have more success outside this week. Kansas City’s L’Jarius Sneed ranks sixth among slot corners (min. 10 targets) in yards/cover snap (0.4) and will likely be a tougher matchup than the Chiefs outside corners.
