Laying some player groundwork for 2022, we are continuing our Dynasty Tiers for this offseason. So far, we have covered the wide receivers, running backs, and tight ends. Now, it’s time to wrap things up with quarterbacks. You can also find full dynasty rankings here.
Some real quick methodology here. If you are new to how I do tiers, I make my dynasty tiers based on a blend of age, fantasy performance, career arc, team situation, and fantasy archetype.
There is some overlap to actual player rankings, but these tiers do not specifically follow the rankings, rather those archetypes. There should be tier movement for some players here based on how free agency and the draft plays out, so check back in as news develops this offseason.
The purpose of tiers not being a carbon copy of player rankings is to spot a potential arbitrage situation and shop in different buckets based on how you are constructing your team in startups and looking for trade opportunities.
A veteran starter that can accrue points immediately based on where a current roster is and other times chasing more youth and upside for the future.
*Player Age = Age on 9/1/2022
Tier One
Patrick Mahomes (Age: 26.9)
Josh Allen (26.3)
Justin Herbert (24.5)
Josh Allen showed that all regression is not something to run from, becoming the first fantasy QB1 in overall scoring in back-to-back seasons since Drew Brees in 2011-2012 and the first QB1 in points per game in consecutive seasons since Daunte Culpepper in 2003-2004. All of Allen’s peripheral metrics took a step back from his 2020 breakout and he had more variance in his week-to-week output, but no quarterback has carried as strong as a weekly ceiling.
Allen paced the position in scoring five different weeks in 2021 (most in the league) with three other weeks as a top-four scorer. Allen added another 6.6 rushing points per game (fourth) while he has yet to average fewer than 5.6 rushing points per game in any of his four seasons in the league.
Patrick Mahomes has shown more moments of vulnerability the past two seasons, but he still has reliably been an elite scorer by the time the dust settles. Mahomes has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game in each of the past four seasons, finishing as the QB1, QB6, QB2, and QB5 in points per game over his stretch as a starter. Mahomes has seen his yards per pass attempt drop from the previous year in each of the past three seasons and he now will be without Tyreek Hill, but he still has posted a touchdown rate over 5.0% every year as a starter while averaging 2.7 rushing points per game over that span.
After a QB8 finish in points ger game as a rookie, Justin Herbert roared back as the QB2 overall and in points per game as a follow up in 2021. Herbert got off the blocks with QB26 and QB22 scoring weeks, then ripped off 12 QB1 scoring weeks the rest of the way with eight top-six scoring weeks, six in the top three, and three outright pacing the position, tied for second in the league.
Herbert is the first player in NFL history to start his career with 30 touchdown passes in his first two seasons. He also offers a touch of production with his legs, adding 3.6 and 2.8 rushing points per game to open his career. It could be short-lived, but Herbert also having attachment to the most aggressive coaching staff is an immediate positive as icing on the cake.
Tier 2
Kyler Murray (25.1)
Lamar Jackson (25.7)
Joe Burrow (25.7)
Deshaun Watson (26.9)
Kyler Murray has given us pockets in each of the past two seasons that have shown he can be the highest scorer at his position, but also has lagged to close each year. Murray has opened his career with seasons as the QB12, QB5, and the QB4 in points per game, but has picked up mid-season injuries in each of the past two years that have set him back after racing out of the gates.
Murray also had to contend with losing DeAndre Hopkins last season, which directly impacted his performance. With Hopkins on the field, Murray completed 72.1% of his passes for 8.8 yards per pass attempt. With Hopkins off the field, Murray completed 65.1% of his passes for 6.6 Y/A. As insurance for that event unfolding again, Arizona added Marquise Brown to the fold as the best compliment this offense has had to Hopkins.
We were expecting Murray’s rushing reliance to come back down in 2021 and it did. After 39.1% of his fantasy points in 2020 came directly from rushing, Murray was at 24.1%, back in line with his rookie season. That said, Murray has added 4.9, 9.2, and 5.2 rushing points per game to open his career.
Not much went right for Lamar Jackson in 2021 down to his own play, missing just about six full games due to injury, and the Ravens as a team just not being able to stay healthy as a whole. Jackson had his touchdown rate sag down to 4.2% in 2021 after 6.9% and 9.0% rates the previous two seasons while he averaged .401 passing points per attempt (19th) after ranking 10th (.522) and second (.641) his first two years as a starter.
That said, Jackson still finished as the QB9 in points per game on the strength of 7.4 rushing points per game, second in the league. Without his end-of-season injury, Jackson would have surely eclipsed 1,000 yards on the ground for the third straight season with 767 yards prior. He also had poor scoring fortune on the ground, with just two rushing touchdowns after seven each the previous two seasons.
One thing with Jackson is that his rushing has made him more of a floor player for fantasy than a spike-week option. After nine games as a top-three scoring at his position in 2019, Jackson has had just four top-three weeks since.
We have some clarity on the status for Deshaun Watson after the Supreme Court did not file criminal charges on him early in March. While Watson still potentially faces missing time due to a suspension in 2022, the Browns immediately took action in acquiring him and locking him up a long-term deal. Watson has never finished outside of the top-six scorers per game at his position and led the league in yards per pass attempt when we last saw him on the field in 2020.
Joe Burrow took off in Year 2, leading the league in completion percentage (70.4%) and yards per attempt (9.0), the first passer to lead the league in both categories since Drew Brees in 2017. Burrow had significant spikes in touchdown rate (6.5%) on his way to a QB10 finish in points per game. The only thing that took a step back was Burrow dropping from 3.2 rushing points per game as a rookie down to 1.5 per game last season, a question we had coming in after Burrow suffered an ACL injury as a rookie.
Burrow paced the position in scoring twice, but he did also have plenty of weekly variance, posting eight QB1 scoring weeks and another seven as the QB16 or lower. Attached to explosive young receivers, there is still plenty of room for scoring growth, too, especially if the Bengals can get this offensive line in order after Burrow took a league-high 51 sacks. The Bengals scored a touchdown on 31.5% of their drives when Burrow wasn’t sacked as opposed to 9.0% when he was.
Tier 3
Dak Prescott (29.1)
Russell Wilson (33.8)
Matthew Stafford (34.6)
We have a smaller tier of veteran quarterbacks, but ones that have showcased strong floors with weekly upside as fantasy QB1 options. All of these quarterbacks have plenty of meat left on the bone in today’s NFL.
Dak Prescott is the youngest of these passers. Returning to action after a devastating ankle injury in 2020, Prescott was the QB8 in points per game last season. This coming after QB7, QB14, QB13, QB7, and QB1 seasons per game at his position to open his career. Prescott threw a career-high 37 touchdowns on a career-high 6.2% touchdown rate. His previous career-high was 5.0% so we could see some recoil here.
Prescott’s ankle injury also sapped his production on the ground. He rushed for a career-low 9.1 yards per game with one rushing score. That forced Prescott to live as a passer only, which inherently made him more volatile for fantasy. Dak posted eight weeks as a top-six scorer, but also had five weeks as the QB20 or lower.
2021 left many wondering if Russell Wilson’s days as an elite fantasy quarterback are over. Wilson missed games for the first time in his career and finished outside of the top-12 scorers over the season for the first time. Wilson had just one top-six scoring week. That said, he still did hold a steady floor, finishing as the QB13 in points per game with a QB1 scoring performance in half of his starts. Wilson also averaged 13.1 rushing yards per game, by far the fewest in his career. Turning 34 in November, we are at that point of taking what rushing points we get from Wilson without counting on them.
Looking under the hood, I believe there still is upside here, however. Despite the limited counting stats, Wilson still posted a 6.3% touchdown rate, his fifth straight season over 6.0%. Wilson was fourth in the league in passing points per attempt (.531) behind Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, and Matthew Stafford. But Seattle once again was a bottom-dweller in offensive plays (dead last at 5.61 per game) and as a byproduct, last in the league in pass attempts per game (29.1). Moving to Denver, Wilson may not have top-level talent as good as D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but the depth is stronger as a whole on offense while free from the confines of an antiquated play-calling approach.
You couldn’t write a better script for Matthew Stafford in his first season with the Rams. Ending the season with a Super Bowl win, Stafford also was the QB6 in overall scoring for fantasy, scoring 19.4 points per game (the third-most of his career) while he completed 67.2% of his passes for 8.1 Y/A, 4,886 yards, and 41 touchdowns in the regular season. Stafford posted a career-high 6.8% touchdown rate, something that should come down naturally in 2022 since a league-high 80.4% of the Rams offensive touchdowns came through the air. On average over the past decade, teams over 80% in that depart decline -12.4% the following year with just two of 26 teams increasing that rate. That said, even with some touchdown regression, Stafford has multiple seasons left attached to a scheme that is tailored to his strengths and can allow him to close his career as a top passer in the league.
Tier 4
Trey Lance (22.3)
Justin Fields (23.5)
Trevor Lawrence (22.9)
Jalen Hurts (24.1)
Tua Tagovailoa (24.5)
Mac Jones (24.0)
Zach Wilson (23.1)
Kenny Pickett (24.2)
Out tier of quarterbacks on their rookie contracts that possess the upside to make jumps to Tier 2 or higher but also the volatility to crash in terms of market value with a disappointing 2022 season. If I am in a startup and miss out on a Tier 1-2 quarterback, I want to make sure I have immediate platoon options should I be buying in this tier as my first quarterback. The 2021 quarterback class was advertised as one of the strongest potentially ever, but it was a collective struggle across the board.
Trey Lance never found the field for the 49ers outside of necessity as a rookie. He took just 86 dropbacks and immediately handed the offense back to Jimmy Garoppolo without question from the staff anytime the veteran was able to play. Lance entered the NFL with the most limited resume of any first-round quarterback while sitting out 2020 and playing in an FCS program. A tempered learning curve was always a potential outcome.
That said, when we did see Lance play, he led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback (0.75) on his limited sample. In his two starts, he scored 14.6 and 19.1 fantasy points while throwing two fewer touchdown passes as a rookie as Justin Fields (on 199 fewer attempts) and four fewer than Zach Wilson (on 142 fewer passes). Lance has the rushing ability to provide a high floor even if he struggles in his first season as a starter, but he also has the surrounding talent and coaching insulation to provide a runway for more.
Justin Fields had a brutal start when he finally got to take over the starter in Chicago. His first five starts were as bad as you could draw up as Fields was the QB28 or lower in four of those games (with a high of QB18), completing 57.8% of his passes for 6.4 Y/A with two touchdown passes and five interceptions. It looked as if Fields was dead in the water, then he climbed up to competency over his final five starts completing 60.4% of his passes for 7.6 Y/A with five touchdowns. While that still leaves a ton to be desired as a passer, Fields getting more comfortable also led to more rushing and as a byproduct, fantasy points.
Fields was a QB1 scorer in four of those final five games, with the one game outside of the top-12 scorers coming in Week 11 when he left the game at halftime. Fields rushed for 56 yards per game over that stretch. Fields also pushed the football. His 7.1 air yards per completion were tops in the league when he did complete passes. Chicago still has questionable talent for Fields to work with, but they have moved on from Matt Nagy’s thumbprint on the offense in favor of Luke Getsy, who comes over from the Packers.
Trevor Lawrence had lofty expectations built up for multiple seasons on an Andrew Luck level as a franchise savior, but the initial results are a strong reminder that the NFL can be humbling for anyone. Lawrence had the most incompetent head coach in the league overseeing his initial development to derail things, but not much went right for him on the field. He ranked 35th out of 42 passers with 100 or more pass attempts in completion percentage (59.6%) while the only passers with a lower yards per attempt than Lawrence’s 6.1 Y/A were Tyler Huntley, Jacoby Brissett, Cam Newton, and Mike Glennon. In year two under Doug Pederson, there is a low bar for improvement while Jacksonville is all in with giving Lawrence what they can.
Lawrence ended the year with just 12 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions. The only games in which he threw multiple touchdowns were the season opener and final game of the year. Lawrence closed the season 31st in points per game among quarterbacks with five or more starts. The silver lining is that there is a low bar here for improvement while he will get a fresh start with Doug Pederson.
Jalen Hurts passed the first part of the test in 2020, playing at a level that has the Eagles willing to move forward with him as their starting quarterback. For fantasy, that is all we ask since Hurts being on the field provides a cushion of points. Hurts was the QB6 in points per game in 2021, 11 QB1 scoring weeks in 16 starts. 44.3% of Hurts’s fantasy output came via rushing production as he posted a league-high 9.2 rushing points per game, rushing for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns.
While Hurts is a viable fantasy starter when on the field, he still has to show growth as a passer to stay locked in as the starter for the Eagles. In regard to the passers in this tier, Hurts still has the highest probability to not be a starter in 2023 with a failed 2022 campaign since the other players here come with supreme draft investment to see through. Hurts closed 2020 41st in completion rate (61.3%) while second to last in the league in expected completion percentage. The addition of A.J. Brown provides Hurts with another major asset.
Tua Tagovailoa saw improvement across the board off his rookie numbers, but still was limited from a fantasy perspective, closing as the QB23 in points per game. Through 21 starts, Tagovailoa has four QB1 scoring weeks with two inside of the top-10.
Tagovailoa worked behind the league’s worst offensive line, ranking last in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate and last in Pro Football Focus grades. This forced Miami to go into a heavy RPO passing game and played a role in Tua’s 7.4-yard average depth of target (33rd) and 6.8 yards per pass attempt (32nd).
Miami has already added offensive linemen Connor Williams and Terron Armstead to their line to go along with offensive assets in Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Cedrick Wilson, while Tagovailoa will get to work with Mike McDaniel in a system that maximized efficiency for passers. That is all in addition to having Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki as stayovers from the previous regime.
While Tagovailoa is trending up, he still has a wide range of outcomes and there is still a tough barrier to crack as a fantasy QB1. Like Derek Carr, Tagovailoa will be a coveted QB2 at minimum, even if failing to crack into that elite tier of fantasy assets. Even with this bump, we are still elevating Tagovailoa for more things that have to do with more surrounding him than the player himself. At quarterback in fantasy, you have to extremely stand out to be a difference marker or just part of the pile of usable options.
Mac Jones was far and away the best of the 2020 rookies, but unfortunately he also has the tightest needle to thread for fantasy. Jones led all rookies with 22 touchdowns and 7.3 yards per pass attempt, but with just 12.9 rushing points all season, Jones has to make a strong jump as a passer to become a weekly option in 1QB formats. His most likely ceiling outcome is on the Kirk Cousins spectrum, which is more than fine as a strong QB2 weekly that can moonlight as a QB1 when the spike passing weeks come.
Zach Wilson was firmly on the struggle bus with the rest of the rookie passers outside of Jones. Wilson ended 2021 last among all qualifying quarterbacks in the league in success rate per pass play (38.7%), completion percentage (55.6%), and completion rate below expectation (-10.3%) while throwing for 6.1 yards per pass attempt (30th). Wilson did add 3.3 rushing points per game (11th) to keep the lights on that if he can make significant strides as a passer in year two that there is athleticism to tap into.
Kenny Pickett was the only quarterback selected in the first round this year, with a cavernous gap in investment over the next passer.
Though four years at Pitt, Pickett posted pedestrian output, never having a season with a higher completion rate than 61.6%, a higher yards per attempt than 7.7 Y/A, or more passing touchdowns than 13. Then in 2021, Pickett spiked for a 67.2% completion rate, 8.7 Y/A, and 42 touchdowns through the air.
Although Pickett will be a rookie, that late-career breakout does already have him as the second-oldest player in this tier.
His mobility is something the Steelers and Matt Canada desire to make this offense work as intended. Something they could not do with Ben Roethlisberger. Only Tampa Bay had fewer dropbacks outside of the pocket than the Steelers in 2021.
Roethlisberger also used play action on just 18.5% of his dropbacks, 36th in the league, while Roethlisberger was fourth in the league in dropbacks using shotgun.
Pittsburgh did add Mitchell Trubisky this offseason, but Trubisky only carries a dead cap hit of $2.6 million in 2023 if the Steelers need to move on, while his $10.6 million cap hit overall in 2023 is palatable for a backup with a quarterback on a rookie contract.
Tier 5
Aaron Rodgers (38.7)
Tom Brady (45.1)
Rodgers and Brady get their own tier because of where they are at this stage of his career from a performance and age perspective. Every season from this point on could be Rodgers’s last, but he is still a top option while on the field. Rodgers has won back-to-back MVP awards while finishing as the QB4 and QB7 in fantasy points per game the past two seasons. Rodgers closed the season on fire, with six straight top-10 scoring weeks. All signs point to Rodgers staying with the Packers.
Brady will turn 45 years old this August, but is coming back for one more season at least in Tampa Bay, where he has finished as the QB11 and QB3 in points per game. Even at age 44, Brady hit for fantasy, throwing for 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns while attempting 42.3 passes per game.
Tier 6
Derek Carr (31.4)
Kirk Cousins (34.0)
Ryan Tannehill (34.1)
Matt Ryan (37.3)
We have a small veteran tier here who could potentially still change teams, but I am confident that they will remain starting quarterbacks in the NFL for multiple seasons, if not the remainder of their careers.
Kirk Cousins has always taken a lot of flack for his ceiling in altering a franchise, but he has been a steady fantasy producer, closing just one of the past seven seasons outside of the top-16 scorers at his position per game while finishing as the QB12 in points per game in each of the past two seasons.
Derek Carr has thrown for 4,000 yards in each of the past four seasons while coming off a career-high 4,804 passing yards and 282.6 yards per game. He has only thrown 30 touchdown passes just once while finishing higher than QB19 in points per game just once through eight seasons. Despite the Raiders adding Davante Adams and Carr having his best supporting cast, he still is more of a floor-based QB2 with the lack of rushing and the strength at the top of the position.
With the quarterback seats getting taken up, the Colts were the latest team to solidify the direction they are going in 2022, acquiring Matt Ryan from the Falcons.
Ryan will turn 37 this May coming off his worst fantasy season over his career, finishing as the QB30 in points per game (13.1). Even with the lack of production for counting fantasy stats, Ryan did have some strong areas on solid football play, especially when you factor in the context of his offensive situation throwing to a rookie tight end, losing Calvin Ridley, and playing behind an offensive line that ranked 26th in ESPN’s pass block win rate and was 31st in pass blocking grade per Pro Football Focus. Despite those peripheral notes on his situation, Ryan was seventh in on target rate (78.9%) per Sports Info Solutions.
Ryan also played better than Carson Wentz, who was in a more optimal situation on a Colts team that was better than Atlanta in every capacity outside of quarterback play. Ryan posted an expected completion rate of 67.4%, was 1.8% above that expectation, and notched a 47.4% success rate passing. Wentz sported a 66.8% expected completion rate, was -2.0% below that mark, and posted a 46.9% success rate passing.
Ryan was pressured on 39.7% of his dropbacks (sixth) while he came out as the 12th highest graded passer from a clean pocket per Pro Football Focus while Wentz was 26th. Although Ryan is stuck as a QB2 and streamer for fantasy purposes, this is an upgrade for Ryan while the Colts also were able to upgrade from where their quarterback situation was a year ago.
Ryan Tannehill will turn 34 years old this July, which feels like it really crept on us. After back-to-back seasons as the QB10 in Tennessee, Tannehill slid down to QB16 a year ago with just five QB1 scoring weeks. Tannehill offers the most with his legs from these options, averaging 3.5, 4.3, and 4.1 rushing points per game with the Titans while rushing for seven touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. Tannehill carries a potential out in his contract next season that can save the Titans nearly $19 million, so he will need to bounce back in a big way this season, being forced to do so without A.J. Brown.
Tier 7
Jameis Winston (28.7)
Daniel Jones (25.2)
Carson Wentz (29.7)
Jared Goff (27.9)
Davis Mills (23.9)
Desmond Ridder (23.0)
Matt Corral (23.6)
Malik Willis (23.3)
Jimmy Garoppolo (30.8)
Mitchell Trubisky (28.0)
Marcus Mariota (28.8)
Sam Darnold (25.2)
Baker Mayfield (27.4)
Drew Lock (25.8)
Here is our tier of quarterbacks that are expected to be starters (or potentially draw starts) in 2022, but anything beyond that is fragile.
Another team ended their offseason speculation of direction under center as the Saints signed Jameis Winston to a two-year contract. Winston was doing everything asked of him prior to tearing his ACL in Week 8. The Saints had a 5-2 record while he was averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt with 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
Winston was actually the top quarterback in fantasy points per attempt (.601) while second in the NFL in EPA per play on his abbreviated sample. Winston also was living off a completely unsustainable 8.7% touchdown rate, but with the Saints keeping Pete Carmichael in place and finally getting Michael Thomas back on the field, Winston is set back up as a QB2 option that can build off his solid start with the Saints in 2021.
Areas of concern are Winston averaged 3.2 rushing points per game (15th), while rushing production accounted for 19.3% of his fantasy output (16th). Coming off the ACL, banking on any rushing production is compromised. Winston also received a short term deal worth $21 million, which could still leave the door open for Taysom Hill to to lurk behind any struggles that occur, but Hill never actually threatened Winston under center with Winston healthy a year ago.
The early rumor is that the Giants will not pick up the fifth-year option on Daniel Jones as they enter 2022 with an entirely new regime top down. If not, then Jones is truly in a make-or-break year. After throwing 24 touchdowns as a rookie, Jones has thrown 21 touchdown passes the past three seasons. Brian Daboll gives Jones an added pulse.
Davis Mills threw more touchdown passes (16) than every rookie after Mac Jones. Given the situation in Houston and Mills being so cheap, they should give him a full offseason to come in as the 2022 starter and see what they have. Mills was once the top recruit in the nation coming out of high school and over his final six starts, Mills turned in just one scoring week in the back half of the position with four top-12 games, throwing for 7.3 Y/A with 11 touchdowns to three interceptions over that span.
Carson Wentz was the QB17 in points per game in 2021, but he struggled so much down the stretch that his status with the Colts is in jeopardy. Wentz threw for just 6.3 yards per attempt over the final 11 games with two QB1 scoring weeks over his final eight games. If another team moves on from in back-to-back seasons, Wentz will likely have to work his way back into a starting role elsewhere.
Since being the QB10 in points per game in 2018 with 32 touchdowns and 8.4 Y/A, Jared Goff has been the QB22, QB24, and QB24 in points per game the past three seasons while throwing 22 or fewer touchdowns in all three seasons and 7.4, 7.2, and 6.6 yards per pass attempt.
The offseason campaign for Mitchell Trubisky getting another starting job was strong, and it didn’t take long for him to find a spot, signing a two-year deal with the Steelers. Unfortunately, the Steelers also went and added Kenny Pickett in the first round, likely pushing Trubisky for starts this year if the rookie does not outright win the job over the summer.
In Chicago, Trubisky did log a QB11 scoring season on a per game basis (18.8 points), surrounding QB38, QB32, and QB26 seasons per game during his tenure with Bears. For fantasy, Trubisky has averaged 3.0 rushing points per game as a starter while 21.3% of his career fantasy production has come directly from rushing.
Marcus Mariota has not started a game since 2019, but is more than familiar playing under Arthur Smith, although that did not end well. Mariota was ultimately benched during that 2019 season with Smith as the play caller, but did open that season with a pair of top-six scoring weeks over the opening month of the season before things fell apart.
Mariota does have a QB1 scoring season on his resume, coming in 2016 when he posted 17.3 points per game. He also comes with rushing production, averaging 3.3 rushing points per start in his career. In his lone game with the Raiders receiving extended playing time with Derek Carr suffering an injury, Mariota was the QB9 (25.8 points) for fantasy, tacking on 41 yards and a rushing touchdown on the ground.
As long as Mariota remains the starter, he carries rushing potential as a streamer in the same fashion of Mitchell Trubisky, albeit Mariota has much more limitations to work with currently on this Atlanta roster.
Atlanta selected Desmond Ridder in the third round this year as the QB2 in the draft.
Ridder is four-year starter, opening his career at Cincinnati starting 12 of 13 games as a redshirt freshman, averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt and 20 touchdowns to five interceptions. He closed his career out with a career-high 8.6 yards per attempt and 30 passing touchdowns to just eight interceptions.
Protecting the ball has been his best attribute in college, posting a career TD-to-INT ratio in the 73rd percentile, making up ground for a 49th percentile completion rate (62.1%) and 48th percentile yards per attempt (7.9 Y/A).
Ridder should be a solid bet to make starts this year given the probability that the Falcons won’t have a good enough record to prevent taking a look at what they have in Ridder heading into the 2023 offseason.
The same should be true for Matt Corral in Carolina. Between Sam Darnold, Cam Newton, and Phillip Walker, the Panthers were dead last in expected points added via passing in 2021 (-80.6 EPA). They ranked 32nd in team completion percentage (58.1%), 31st in touchdown rate (2.3%), 31st in interception rate (3.5%), and 31st in yards per pass attempt (6.0 Y/A).
In his first season paired with Lane Kiffin, Corral completed 70.9% of his passes for 10.2 yards per attempt with 29 touchdowns. Corral then came back in 2021, completing 67.9% of his passes for 8.7 Y/A with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions. Even with the regression off his 2020 output, Corral still closed his career in the 88th percentile in completion rate (67.3%) and 91st percentile in yards per attempt (9.1 Y/A).
Baker Mayfield could still start somewhere in 2022, but we are short on opportunities now through the opening wave of free agency and the NFL Draft. Through 59 career starts in Cleveland, Mayfield has been a fantasy QB1 scorer in just 16 of those games. Seattle might be the only remaining spot open for Mayfield to start in 2022.
Speaking of Seattle, as of right now we are looking at a slappers only quarterback battle there between Drew Lock and Geno Smith. Since Lock entered the league in 2019, he sits 33rd in EPA per dropback (-0.06), 36th in completion percentage (59.3%), 30th in yards per pass attempt (6.68 Y/A), 34th in touchdown rate (3.5%), and 31st in interception rate (2.8%).
The 49ers were expected to try and trade Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, but a recent shoulder surgery that will sideline him for the next four months has been a snag in selling him at maximum opportunity. There definitely is a non-zero chance he could return to San Francisco but carrying a $27M cap hit with just $1.4M counting as dead money, it still is a thin probability. Especially for a team looking to extend both Deebo Samuel and Joey Bosa. Garoppolo has never finished higher than QB18 in points per game for fantasy, but his real-life win-loss record and starting to conference title games over the past three seasons can carry appeal for an NFL team.
Malik Willis tumbled down draft boards this spring after generating buzz as potentially going as high as pick No. 2 to the Lions. After being selected 86th overall, Willis now has a climb for a real shot in the league, but landing in Tennessee does provide hope after 2022 should the team fall out of favor with Ryan Tannehill.
No quarterback threw a higher rate of their passes 20 or more yards downfield in this class than Willis at 20.4%. He comes off rushing for 1,822 yards and 27 touchdowns in his two seasons as a starter, giving him 96th percentile career rushing score in my prospect model. With the weight given to rushing production in fantasy football, Willis can find a path to relevancy even without passing progression, but he first needs to find the field.
Tier 8
Tyler Huntley (24.6)
Jordan Love (23.8)
Gardner Minshew (26.3)
Teddy Bridgewater (29.8)
Sam Howell (22.0)
Kyle Trask (24.5)
Taylor Heinicke (29.5)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (39.8)
Geno Smith (31.9)
Mason Rudolph (27.1)
Tyrod Taylor (33.1)
Andy Dalton (34.8)
Dwayne Haskins (25.3)
Sam Ehlinger (23.9)
Blaine Gabbert (32.9)
Our end of the draft dart throws, especially in formats where we are rostering extra quarterbacks and even brief starting quarterbacks carry currency. These players may not be projected full-season starters, but you never know when they could run into the next opportunity.
Tyler Huntley flashed some fantasy upside in his relief of Lamar Jackson and had one week as the highest scorer overall in Week 15 with 35.9 fantasy points. He also averaged just 5.8 Y/A with three touchdown passes in his four starts, so we will see if he can draw any nibbles as a potential trade piece or is tied to being Lamar Jackson’s backup.
