As we begin to lay the foundation for the 2022 offseason, here we are going to lay out Dynasty positional tiers with a synopsis of those tiers. Quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends can be found in those links while full overall dynasty rankings can be found here.
Some real quick methodology here. If you are new to how I do tiers, I make my dynasty tiers based on a blend of age, fantasy performance, career arc, team situation, and fantasy archetype.
There is some overlap to actual player rankings, but these tiers do not always specifically follow the rankings.
There is plenty of room for nuance based on whether you are drafting a team from scratch versus an established roster that should also be taken into consideration as another layer here in application to your own rosters.
The purpose of tiers not being a carbon copy of player rankings is to spot a potential arbitrage situation and shop in different buckets based on how you are constructing your team in startups and looking for trade opportunities.
A veteran starter that can accrue points immediately based on where a current roster is and other times chasing more youth and upside for the future.
There also could be tier movement for some players here based on how free agency and the draft plays out, so check back in as news develops this offseason.
*Player Age = Age on 9/1/2022
Tier 1 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase (Age 22.5)
Justin Jefferson (23.2)
There is a clear gap at the top of the wide receiver position in dynasty circles and it belongs to Chase and Jefferson, former collegiate teammates who have posted two of the most prolific rookie seasons over the past two years.
Justin Jefferson followed up an 88-1,400-7 rookie season in which he was the WR9 in points per game (17.1) to post 108-1,616-10 this past season as the WR4 in points per game (19.4).
Ja’Marr Chase scored the second-most fantasy points for a rookie wideout in league history, nearly running down Randy Moss in the record books with 81 catches for 1,455 yards and 13 touchdowns. Chase was the first rookie to ever have multiple games posting 200 yards receiving.
I believe Jefferson is slightly the better all-around receiver than Chase, but when splitting hairs at the top here, Chase has the bonus of playing the prime of his career alongside the ascension of Joe Burrow as a tie-breaker here, if forced to decide between one or the other.
Tier 2 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill (28.5)
Davante Adams (29.7)
Cooper Kupp (29.2)
Stefon Diggs (28.8)
My secondary tier of wideouts is the group of alpha WR1 options that are approaching the age apex for elite scorers at the positions. The point of no return for alpha wideouts has historically been age 32. In a startup, I am more than likely going to bypass these options for players from the next grouping, but there is still plenty of room here for this group to significantly impact fantasy titles for the next three to four years. Nearly all of these veterans are attached to strong offensive climates and above average quarterback play.
Even with Davante Adams moving to Las Vegas from Green Bay, he is still a strong fantasy asset short term, even with the downgrade from Aaron Rodgers.
Tyreek Hill was also traded this offseason, heading to the Dolphins. Coming off an up-and-down 2021, Hill has shown he elevates all quarterbacks that he plays with, but also will have an offensive climate that was not entirely as strong as the one he is leaving behind in Kansas City.
Cooper Kupp will be a talking point this offseason for anticipated regression coming off scoring the second-most points per game (25.9) for a wide receiver in league history, but even with recoil, he is in a strong position to sustain being a top-end fantasy option. Kupp will still be a heavy favorite to lead a receiving group that has a number of question marks outside of him with the injury to Robert Woods and shaky depth. Even if Odell Beckham returns, he will also be coming off a major injury.
Kupp also did not completely come out of nowhere in terms of performing at a WR1 level, as we have the front half of the 2019 season to draw back on for the upside he had in his range of outcomes. With Stafford and Sean McVay still in place, Kupp has room to concede some overall production from his 2021 totals and still be a strong fantasy wideout.
Stefon Diggs was in a similar boat as Kupp last season. After posting 7.9 catches for 95.9 yards per game in his first season in Buffalo, Diggs made averaging 6.1 receptions for 72.1 yards per game feel somewhat disappointing to gamers despite still ranking 10th and 12th at his position in those categories. Diggs also managed a career-high 10 touchdowns while averaging 9.7 targets per game (seventh). After receiving over 25% of the Buffalo targets in each of his first two seasons with the Bills, Diggs is a strong bet to once again be peppered with opportunity in 2022 attached to Josh Allen.
Tier 3 Dynasty Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb (23.4)
A.J. Brown (25.2)
DK Metcalf (24.7)
Tee Higgins (23.6)
This tier of wideouts has shown the capability to be premier WR1 options on a weekly basis over the start of their careers but have yet to put together that full fantasy campaign wire-to-wire just yet. These are the wideouts you envision having the best odds of becoming players like the tier above when they reach that stage of their careers while carrying plenty of immediate upside. In a startup, I am more inclined to shop in this tier than the one above, but the previous tier carries more instant probability in contributing to winning titles as solo contributors.
CeeDee Lamb has caught a lot of flack this offseason in fantasy circles due to the close of his second season in which he caught 32 passes for 376 yards and zero touchdowns over the final seven games in the regular season. Lamb went from averaging 17.6 points per game prior, down to 10.6 per game to close the season after that stretch.
We saw a similar close to his Year 2 season that we had seen from Metcalf in 2020. Lamb still managed to improve across the board in his second season on a per-game level with that factored in. Dallas has yet to really settle on a role for Lamb but has primarily played him out of the slot to open his career when they have a full roster at their disposal.
A.J. Brown teased us once again with the upside he holds in 2021. Brown was fourth among all wide receivers in the league in target rate per route run (29.1%), but once again missed time (four games) while being saddled in a low-volume passing offense.
Brown gave us moments that reminded us of his upside when healthy with games 10-155-1, 8-133-1, 11-145-1, and a 5-142-1 in the playoffs, but he also had another seven full games played with fewer than 50 yards receiving. Brown was able to average a career-high 8.1 targets per game, but that still forced efficiency more than his WR1 peers as it ranked 16th at the position. Brown will once again be tasked relying on efficiency to carry water for him, joining an Eagles team that found their offensive stride in 2021 when they dialed back their offense through the air.
Only four players have caught more receiving touchdowns than DK Metcalf’s 29 since he entered the league and only three caught more than his 12 scores in 2021, but Metcalf saw a significant dip in other areas last season, dropping from 5.2 receptions per game down to 4.4 while his 81.4 yards per game in 2020 sagged down to 56.9 yards per game last season. After opening the 2020 season with 90 or more yards in seven of his first eight games, Metcalf has hit that arbitrary mark in just four of 25 games since.
That said, after finishing fifth in yards per team pass attempt in 2020 (2.31), Metcalf was still ninth last season (1.95) at his position. The Seattle offense has done him no favors in being able to stack volume and leaving him touchdown reliant more than his peers as Metcalf was 38th in the league among wideouts in routes run despite playing in every game. With Russell Wilson now exiting Seattle, Metcalf has another immediate speed bump that can prevent him putting together locked-in WR1 production in 2022.
Tee Higgins also improved across the board in his second season, raising his yards per catch (14.7 yards), receptions (5.3) and yards (77.9) per game, catch rate (67.3%), and yards per target (9.9 yards) all from his rookie season. Higgins is the first wide receiver here that is clearly not the best wide receiver on his own team, but after Higgins returned from injury in Week 5, he posted an 82-1,282-6 line on 125 targets over his final 16 games played with Ja’Marr Chase while Chase notched 87-1,500-10 on 134 targets.
Tier 4 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel (26.6)
D.J. Moore (25.4)
Diontae Johnson (26.2)
Terry McLaurin (27.0)
Chris Godwin (26.5)
This next tier is older than the previous tier but has also given us a larger sample of production to latch onto. These players may never be the top-scorer at their position in a given season but have strong floors with plenty of upside of their own to produce multiple WR1 scoring seasons.
No wide receiver has had a season like the one Deebo Samuel had this past year. Samuel produced a 77-1,405-6 line through the air to go along with 365 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground as he went from being forced to operating as the alpha receiver in the passing game early in the year with George Kittle out of the lineup and Brandon Aiyuk in the doghouse, to chipping in out of the backfield as the season pressed on due to the exposed lack of talented depth of the San Francisco backfield last season.
Samuel is a one-of-one player at his position right now, but even if his unique usage remains intact, asking him to replicate his insane efficiency from 2021 is a tall ask. Samuel was fifth in the NFL in receiving yards despite ranking 54th in routes run and 26th in targets. He found the end zone a total of 16 times, with just three coming from inside of 10 yards. We certainly should expect some regression and potential volatility — especially with the range of outcomes Trey Lance can have as a first-year starter — but that said, any time that Samuel has been able to stay on the field over his first three seasons in the league, he has done nothing but be a productive and efficient player. Samuel has now played two-thirds of the snaps in 29 career games, finishing as a WR11 in 11 of those games and averaging 17.7 points per game, scoring single-digit points in just four of those games.
It finally looked as if we were going to have our D.J. Moore breakout last season when he opened the season with 30-398-3 over the opening four games, but he inevitably was caught up once again in the riptide of an offense with subpar quarterback play once Sam Darnold’s deal with the devil in September expired. From that point on, Moore found the end zone just one more time, still leaving him with four or fewer touchdowns in each of his first four seasons. The concerns about Moore’s quarterback this season and surrounding offense once again exist, but he will still only be 25-years-old to open up 2022 with 1,200 yards in each of the past three seasons. While we are still chasing a ceiling outcome, there is evidence that it does exist when conditions rise as Moore has finished eighth (2.17 yards) and 11th (1.93 yards) at his position in yards per team pass attempt the past two seasons while his runway to sustaining a high target share (he was eighth among wideouts with 9.6 targets per game) is still present.
From one player limited by quarterback play to another, Terry McLaurin was once again held back from accessing his full fantasy potential, posting 77-1,053-5 in his third season. McLaurin was completely feast or famine, posting four top-10 scoring weeks on the year and finishing WR30 or lower in every other game with eight weeks as the WR50 or lower.McLaurin ranked 13th among wideouts in targets (130) in 2021, but just 62.7% were deemed catchable, the lowest rate of all wideouts to see 100 or more targets last season.
McLaurin still has a lot of meat left on the bone, but he is older than most players heading into their fourth season and Washington still has a gaping question mark under center to correct before they end up squandering the upside McLaurin has through his apex years.
After jumping to WR22 in points per game in 2020, Diontae Johnson reached WR9 in that department in his third season, catching 107 passes for 1,161 yards and eight touchdowns. Johnson has amassed a gaudy 313 targets over the past two seasons. While some of the overall volume of targets can be credited to the limitations of the Pittsburgh offense and late-career Ben Roethlisberger, do not let that cloud the fact that Johnson is one of the league’s best wide receivers at getting open on his own merit as well. The next quarterback remains to be determined in Pittsburgh, but there is a non-zero outcome where Johnson can still improve in terms of target quality.
Chris Godwin enters the offseason coming off a run as the WR2, WR15, and WR7 in points per game over the previous three seasons, but this is a big offseason for him with potentially a ton of moving parts shaping the remaining prime of his career. Godwin will get another season with Tom Brady, but will also be coming off an ACL injury that ended his season in mid-December, pushing his recovery up against the start of the 2022 season.
Tier 5 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Jaylen Waddle (23.8)
DeVonta Smith (23.8)
Michael Pittman (24.9)
Elijah Moore (22.4)
Marquise Brown (25.2)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (22.9)
Rashod Bateman (22.8)
Jerry Jeudy (23.4)
As we move further along into the position, we are reaching the point where this tier has given us a taste of fantasy excitement, but it has been fleeting enough to still make them players that you should be looking to still cash out on while there still is plenty of buzz, or potentially still remain values that can jump multiple rungs and solidify market value with a strong 2022 campaign.
Jaylen Waddle set a new record for receptions in a season (104) by a rookie while being asked to operate as a near the line of scrimmage asset due to the position the Miami offense was forced into due to their offensive line and surrounding playmakers.
Waddle turned those receptions into a modest 1,015 yards (9.8 yards per catch) with an average depth of target of 7.0 yards, managing just 12 targets all season 20 or further yards downfield.
With Tyreek Hill now on board to compromise Waddle’s overall target share and potentially stunt his growth downfield, Waddle has added volatility as a WR2 option, especially in non-PPR formats. Waddle collected 28 more targets than the next closest Dolphin (Gesicki) while he was targeted on a team-high 23.8% of his routes as a rookie.
DeVonta Smith accounted for 43.5% of the Philadelphia wide receiver targets (sixth at his position), something surely to come down with the addition of a target-earner in A.J. Brown.
Smith (64-916-5) proved he can be lead receiver with a diverse route tree right away as he demonstrated in college. While the talent is clearly here, we still have to question whether or not his immediate situation paired with Brown and the potential schematic limitations Hurts could place on the offense is going to delay his fantasy stardom from matching that displayed talent.
Smith played in an offense that was 29th in the league in pass attempts per game and was attached to a quarterback that was 28th in the league in expected completion percentage. That combination ended up placing Smith 52nd among receivers in receptions per game (3.8) without Brown on the roster and left us with a lot of lean fantasy weeks. Smith cleared six targets in a game just six times as rookie, posting nine weeks as the WR52 or lower as a byproduct.
Elijah Moore fought through an injury-filled rookie campaign in which he missed six games, but there were some flashpoints where we saw the ceiling potential for Moore. He averaged 17.7 points per game over his final seven games while finishing as a WR3 or better in all but one of those games with three WR1 scoring weeks. We still need Zach Wilson to make a jump in play to aid Moore breaking out as Moore and Wilson connected on just 19-of-42 targets (45.2%) while Moore secured 24-of-35 targets (68.6%) from other New York passers.
Michael Pittman more than doubled his rookie season production in 2021, catching 88-of-129 targets for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns. Pittman has alpha qualities with a physical archetype, but he also plays in a run-first climate and was the only pass catcher on his roster a year ago that warranted any consideration. Despite ranking ninth in target share (24.8%), Pittman was 18th in targets per game (7.6), having six or fewer targets in eight games. The Colts will surely make additions to the passing game this season while still primarily running the offense through Jonathan Taylor to compromise a year-three target spike.
Arizona traded their first-round pick to acquire Marquise Brown from Baltimore.
The move reunites Brown with his college quarterback from 2018, when Brown caught 75 passes for 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns with Kyler Murray at Oklahoma.
Brown is coming off his best NFL season, catching 91-of-146 targets for 1,008 yards and six touchdowns. We were finally seeing the emergence of Brown as a leads wideout until the injury to Lamar Jackson torpedoed a potentially top scoring receiver season from Brown in year three. Brown was averaging 17.4 points per game through 10 games and then limped to the finish line with 8.8 points per game afterwards.
With Jackson under center, Brown caught 67.3% of his targets for 12.7 yards per catch, 8.5 yards per target, and averaged 2.03 yards per route run compared to catching 52.1% of his targets for 6.8 yards per catch, 3.6 yards per target and 0.80 yards per route.
That drop-off is a signal that Brown is not the type of wideout that can overcome and elevate a poor offense, but this move also pairs him with a quarterback that can has shown massive success downfield to start his career.
Since entering the league, Kyler Murray has completed 41.5% (34/82) of his passes of 30-plus air yards, highest rate in the league (league is 30.3%). His EPA per dropback on those throws (0.91) is second behind Justin Herbert. Christian Kirk accounted for 30 of those targets, with the next highest player (DeAndre Hopkins) coming in at 12.
Things were slow-moving for Amon-Ra St. Brown to open his rookie season. Through 11 games, St. Brown had 39 catches for 352 yards and zero touchdowns. Then, he went on an all-time heater, catching 51 passes for 560 yards and five touchdowns (with a rushing score) over his final six games, posting five top-10 scoring weeks over that span. St. Brown caught eight or more passes in all six games, just the ninth player in league history to have such a streak.
The glass half full case for St. Brown is that he was used all over the field (and backfield) during that breakout and was too good to be put back in the bottle moving forward. The glass half empty case is that the Lions were stripped down primary playmakers in T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift for the chunk of the breakout while the team is surely not done adding more pass catchers this offseason and that six-game heater goes down as a fantasy tale we highlight as the best run of St. Brown’s career. For what it is worth, I am in the former camp as his skill-set is quarterback friendly.
Rashod Bateman gave us a couple of hot spots as a rookie, but ultimately his playing time never consistently materialized while he was still extremely behind both Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown on the pecking order.
Bateman still managed to show us a floor, finishing as a WR3 or better in half of his 12 games played while only pulling in a 10.6% target share. Now with Brown leaving 146 targets (24.7%) on the table with the depth here severely lacking for the Ravens, Bateman has a runway to vault up to a fantasy WR2.
I still fully believe in the talent of Jerry Jeudy, but there are reasons to potentially not be as bullish as this time a year ago. Jeudy opened the year catching six passes or 72 yards on just 31 snaps as we appeared to be off to the races, but he suffered a brutal ankle injury that sidelined him the next six weeks. On return, he managed to top those 72 yards in the opener in just one of his nine games while failing to score a touchdown. We are still in the open of his career, but Jeudy has now appeared in 26 games and has been a top-30 scorer in four of them.
Denver also gave significant extensions to both Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick before the end of the season while his asking price is still extremely rich as a top-48 dynasty player where we are not getting much discount if he ends up a floor-based slot option. But the upside remains intact with the addition of Russell Wilson to recapture his offseason value from last year.
Tier 6 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Drake London (21.1)
Treylon Burks (22.5)
Garrett Wilson (22.1)
Chris Olave (22.2)
Jameson Williams (21.5)
The top-tier of this 2022 rookie class. I broke down all five of these prospects pre-draft here while I provided initial outlooks on their team landing spots here.
Tier 7 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen (30.3)
DeAndre Hopkins (30.2)
Michael Thomas (29.5)
Mike Evans (29.0)
This tier of wideouts is going to make a number of picks from the tiers ahead of them in startups regrettable as all are capable of WR1 production despite being in the last leg of their apex points, albeit not having as strong as a claim as the option in Tier 2. This is a tier of wideouts I am always looking to buy in leagues with established rosters because these players cannot do a lot to improve their market value moving forward due to age while also moving past the most expensive point of their career.
Keenan Allen has never been flashy or an elite touchdown scorer (and he seemingly always goes through a meandering patch each season), but he is steady as they come in full-PPR formats, catching over 6.0 receptions per game in each of his past six seasons in which he has played multiple games. He has 97 or more receptions in each of his past five seasons. Allen turns 30 this April, but he has a play style that will keep him viable with attachment to Justin Herbert for the final stretch of his apex.
There will surely be a lot of conversation around DeAndre Hopkins this offseason and what to do with him. Hopkins missed seven games in 2021 and while on the field, he averaged 4.2 receptions and 57.2 yards per game, by far his lowest totals per game since 2016. Hopkins was able to stay afloat for fantasy weekly since he still scored eight times in 10 games. 32.6% of his PPR points came via touchdown production alone, the highest rate in his career and just the second time he has been over 20%.
As a wide receiver who is not a burner and wins on the boundary, contested catches, and nuance, Hopkins comes with the fragility he may not age gracefully and last year was a warning sign to fully eject. He also was banged up, but an early-season suspension and the addition of Marquise Brown cloud Hopkins’ short-term outlook while pushing him closer to that apex age cliff.
Michael Thomas has appeared in just seven games the past two seasons while missing all of 2021, leaving him as an out-of-sight, out-of-mind fantasy entity while he will be coming back to a team without Drew Brees or Sean Payton. We do not officially know who the quarterback will be, but with Pete Carmichael staying as offensive coordinator, Thomas still has a play-caller that understands where he excels. Just 17.5% of Thomas’s career targets have come from passers other than Brees, but Thomas has remained a hyper-efficient target no matter who the quarterback has been.
We have a 12 game sample of Thomas playing without Brees (or Brees missing significant time) over the course of his career and there as some pros and cons. The first and obvious pro is that Thomas remained a target magnet. Thomas received a gaudy 32.1% of the team targets with seven or more targets in every game but one (which also happened to be the infamous Kendall Hinton game). Thomas had at least five receptions in 10 of those 12 weeks with eight or more grabs in eight games.
The downside is he has scored just three touchdowns total in those games and has never been strong at creating his own touchdowns on raw athleticism. Of his 32 receiving scores, 20 have come from inside of the 10-yard line and 15 from five yards and in. The days of Thomas being someone who pushes for the WR1 overall may have passed, but do I believe he can be a Keenan Allen-type for fantasy and is undervalued.
Speaking of undervalued, Mike Evans just continues to get there every season. Evans is coming off his eight consecutive 1,000-yard season to open his career while catching another 14 touchdown passes. It is worth noting how touchdown-heavy Evans has been during the Tom Brady years. 31.4% and 32% of Evans’s points the past two years have come via touchdowns (a mark that was 16.9% the previous five seasons before Brady) while he received just 6.8 and 7.1 targets per game, the two lowest totals of his career.
But when the Bucs lost Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin, we saw early-career Evans return with the Bucs forced to lean on him, seeing 10 and 16 targets in the postseason versus Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay, showing that there is plenty of ability there when he is tasked with carrying a passing game, having games of 9-117-1 and 8-119-1. Evans could find himself once again asked to do significant lifting for Tampa Bay in 2021 with Brown already gone, Chris Godwin’s status to be determined, and Rob Gronkowski a question mark that we believe is doubtful to return. Even with the loss of Brady, Evans should be in line for a significant target bump while we inherently know a Bruce Arians-led passing game will remain aggressive downfield.
Tier 8 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper (28.2)
Tyler Lockett (29.9)
Brandin Cooks (28.9)
Allen Robinson (29.4)
Mike Williams (27.9)
Our next tier has veteran wideouts with meat left on the bone of their careers, do not carry the same WR1 cache as the previous tier, but offer the ability to run hot in stretches and deliver spike weeks that can tilt weeks for gamers.
Amari Cooper is coming off a season in which he once again battled injuries, producing his lowest per-game totals since joining the Cowboys with 6.9 targets, 4.5 catches, and 57.7 yards per game. He finished as the WR29 in points per game (13.5), his lowest rate since 2017. From a silver lining stance, Cooper still tied for the team-lead with eight touchdown receptions. Joining the Browns, Cooper is set up to be a lead wide receiver while the Browns also just acquired Deshaun Watson.
Tyler Lockett has consistently found a path to strong final-season numbers, posting another 1,175 yards and eight touchdowns on 73 catches. Lockett was the league’s best deep-ball specialist last season, scoring a league-high 133.3 fantasy points on throws 15 yards or further downfield. With it looking like Russell Wilson is going to remain in Seattle early in the offseason, Lockett will once again be a boom-or-bust WR2 in lineups.
Brandin Cooks was one of the best values last offseason and he delivered, catching 90-of-134 targets for 1,037 yards and six touchdowns. Cooks closed as the WR22 in points per game (14.5), making him a top-24 scoring receiver per game in all but one of his eight seasons in the league. He has done so with a plethora of quarterbacks over his career now, including showing a connection with rookie Davis Mills last year. Cooks and Mills connected on 71.1% of their targets with five touchdowns and a 101.6 rating while Cooks and Tyrod Taylor connected on 58.3% with one score and an 83.0 rating.
The 2021 season was an outright disaster for Allen Robinson. Seemingly disgruntled with the organization for the outset of the season, his effort was questioned, while he also dealt with ankle, hamstring, and COVID issues during the season to go along with subpar quarterback play. All of that resulted in a tailspin that ended with 38 catches for 410 yards and one touchdown over 12 games. Just 60.6% of Robinson’s limited targets were deemed catchable (84th among wideouts) while posting 35 yards or fewer in 9-of-12 games. Joining the Rams, Robinson landed in a spot that will prevent him from being a target hog, but will provide him fantasy friendly opportunities for the first time in his career.
We finally had the breakout season we have been chasing from Mike Williams as he set career-highs in targets (129), receptions (76), and yardage (1,146) to go along with nine touchdowns. Williams started off the season looking as if he would be the crown jewel of fantasy drafts before slowly reverting to his boom-or-bust nature as the season progressed, but he did finally flash that ceiling many believed existed. Staying in Los Angeles, Williams is a true boom-or-bust WR2 with plenty of spike-week upside.
Tier 9A (non-rookies) Dynasty Wide Receivers
Gabriel Davis (23.4)
Chase Claypool (24.2)
Brandon Aiyuk (24.5)
Kadarius Toney (23.6)
Darnell Mooney (24.8)
Rondale Moore (22.2)
Back to some youth and upside, we are still trying to figure out what we have in this tier of young wideouts. You can tell yourself the story you want to hear on all of these wideouts, which is why you will see nearly all of them be selected over the previous tier, but they also have a wider range of outcomes overall, also carrying low floor potential.
I am more on the pro-side of the coin for Gabriel Davis, who is going to be a hot button this offseason. My prospect model loved him coming out of college and all he has done is produce when called upon over his first two seasons in the league. Only Jonathan Taylor (33) and Antonio Gibson (21) have scored more touchdowns than Davis (18) so far from the 2020 draft class. Davis has only played two-thirds of the offensive snaps in 14 career games to open his career but has a 50-816-11 line in those games on 87 targets while averaging 14.2 fantasy points per game.
Even removing his postseason performance this year, Davis was a top-30 scoring receiver in three of the final five weeks this regular season. The question remains on if his playing time elevation was out of necessity, or he made enough true growth in Year 2 that the organization noticed and are comfortable moving forward with as their secondary option behind Stefon Diggs, because we want attachment to Josh Allen and Davis has shown enough scoring upside to at minimal be a boom-or-bust touchdown-dependent WR3 if afforded that opportunity.
Chase Claypool did not take the step many had hoped in Year 2, especially not after the Steelers lost JuJu-Smith Schuster so early in the season. Claypool remained stagnant to his rookie efficiency, posting nearly identical catch rates, yards per catch, reception, and yardage per game. The one thing he did not roll over from his rookie season was finding the end zone. After 11 trips to the paint in 2020, Claypool scored just two times last season. Claypool’s lack of jump was not entirely Roethlisberger related, which is what makes him an intriguing case moving forward.
Claypool has struggled to separate through two years in the league and has struggled to win in contested catch situations, which is a combustible combination. 37.7% of Claypool’s targets last season were contested catches, which was sixth in the league. He secured 17-of-41 (41.5%), which was 27th out of 35 wide receivers with 20 or more contested targets. Claypool’s rookie season touchdown total is more than enough to keep the lights on, but he also could be on an early-career Mike Williams trajectory where he ultimately becomes a volatile touchdown-dependent fantasy option.
Things did not start off strong from Brandon Aiyuk this year as he was in Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse for the opening several weeks of the season. Aiyuk played just 66% of the team snaps through six games, catching nine passes total over that span. Then, Aiyuk managed to get back in the good graces of the staff and played 92% of the snaps over the final 11 games, averaging 13.1 points per game and 21.6% of the team targets over that span with seven games as a top-30 scorer.
While Aiyuk got back to showcasing a solid floor, we still have to question if he is limited short term by being the third-best pass catcher on a low-volume passing game that can spike when either Deebo Samuel or George Kittle miss time. Aiyuk still only averaged 6.2 targets per game over that solid close to the season with four or fewer receptions in seven of those 11 games while Trey Lance offers a wide range of outcomes in terms of impact on the offense.
Kadarius Toney had the most Kadarius Toney rookie season we could have gotten based on his collegiate profile. Toney was only able to appear in 10 games due to various injuries and managed more than 40 yards in just two games, but in the small sample of him receiving playing time while healthy, he jumped off the screen at his best. Toney was pressed into action due to injuries in Week 4, where he caught 6-of-7 targets for 78 yards, forcing five missed tackles. The next week, he then caught 10-of-13 targets for 189 yards and it appeared we were about to experience something Odell Beckham-esque for the remainder of the season.
But Toney suffered an ankle injury in that game that derailed the remainder of his season when he reaggravated it after catching three passes for 36 yards on the opening the drive in Week 6, appearing in just four games the rest of the season. His season was limited to just 196 routes run, but Toney was targeted on 27.0% of those routes, a mark only bested by Antonio Brown, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and A.J. Brown in 2021. The albeit tiny sample was excitement enough to see the potential in his ability while the addition of Brian Daboll will stir up more offseason excitement in harnessing that ability.
Not everything went poorly for the Bears last season as Darnell Mooney was one of the bright spots. After a 61-631-4 season as a rookie on 98 targets, Mooney caught 81-of-140 targets for 1,055 yards and four touchdowns this past season and closed as the WR31 in points per game for fantasy. Mooney has limitations in becoming a full-fledged alpha (he was dead last in contested catch rate among qualifying receivers in 2021), but there’s an easy path to seeing Mooney smoke everyone in this tier in the short-term target volume. Not only did it already exist last season but given the Bears’ roster and not having a first-round pick in the draft, Mooney could be looking at being the de facto WR1 for at least another season.
In the five games that Allen Robinson missed last season, Mooney caught five passes in all of those games while receiving 25.9% of the team targets. Mooney has sell-high qualities, but I believe his stock will rise even further during the 2022 season unless the Bears make a splash addition of receiver with their hands seemingly tied.
Rondale Moore did not do anything to alleviate the concerns we had for him transitioning to the NFL, even in an offense that was suited to get the most out of him. Moore ended the year with 54 catches for 435 yards and one touchdown. After being a near the line of scrimmage receiver in college, Moore managed a laughable depth of target of just 1.2 yards as a rookie. Just seven of his 64 targets came on throws over 10 yards downfield while 41 came at or behind the line scrimmage. I am more than skeptical on Moore’s ceiling from a fantasy stance, but Moore still carries plenty of pedigree and raft capital to have increased usage in year two and find his way as a full-PPR contributor.
Tier 9B (rookies) Dynasty Wide Receivers
Jahan Dotson (22.8)
Skyy Moore (22.0)
Christian Watson (23.6)
George Pickens (21.5)
John Metchie (22.2)
David Bell (21.7)
Wan’Dale Robinson (21.7)
Alec Pierce (22.4)
Similar to the tier split above in which we still have to tell ourselves a story in reaching an apex fantasy outcome, these are next tier of rookie wideouts that present the most immediate upside and allure in fantasy drafts.
I discussed all of them pre-draft here and here. Post draft, Skyy Moore gets the enticing attachment to Patrick Mahomes while Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the only Kansas City wideout currently signed past this season.
Heading to Green Bay, Chrisitan Watson checks a lot of boxes in terms of size, athleticism, strong quarterback play, and opportunity, all things he needs to overcome an unflattering list of recent non-early-declare, non-Power 5 wideouts selected in the second round.
George Pickens was the 11th wide receiver selected in the draft, but he falls into the most successful franchise in grooming receiving prospects. Chase Claypool and Gunner Olszewski are the only current wideouts signed in Pittsburgh beyond 2022 while the team has no tangible competition out of the box for Pickens to earn snaps in 3WR sets.
Things are wide open in Indianapolis behind Michael Pittman for Alec Pierce to contribute. Pittman had 60 more than any other Colts player in 2021. That player was Zach Pascal, who is no longer with the team while veteran T.Y. Hilton still remains a free agent.
Securing day two draft investment, David Bell keeps hope alive for the wishful comparisons to Keenan Allen and Jarvis Landry as productive wideouts with bottom-rung measurables while avoiding what happened to Tylan Wallace and Tyler Johnson the previous two seasons. The Browns have an immediate opening for Bell to play as a big slot right away while getting attachment to Deshaun Watson big picture.
Tier 10A (slots) Dynasty Wide Receivers
Hunter Renfrow (26.7)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (25.8)
Christian Kirk (25.8)
Curtis Samuel (26.1)
Jakobi Meyers (25.8)
Tyler Boyd (27.8)
Russell Gage (26.6)
After finishing outside of the top-50 scorers in each of his first two seasons in the league, Hunter Renfrow shot up to WR10 overall last season (WR17 in points per game), catching 103 passes for 1,038 yards and nine touchdowns. Renfrow’s opportunity was maximized by Darren Waller missing six games, the midseason loss of Henry Ruggs, and the failure of Bryan Edwards to make a second-year leap. In the seven games that Waller missed or exited early, Renfrow averaged 7.1 catches for 79.9 yards per game as opposed to 5.5 catches for 48.8 yards per game otherwise. In the 11 games that Waller played in full, Renfrow reached 60 yards just twice. On the other hand, Renfrow has proven that he can play and his games sets up for him to be around in the league for several more years as a contributor at minimum that can lead to spike WR2 seasons when the opportunity aligns like last season. The addition of Josh McDaniels will surely draw a number of plusses for many gamers given the success of slot receivers in his system, but his splits with and without Waller paired with the addition of Davante Adams to put some squeeze on his ceiling.
2021 provided no further clarity on JuJu Smith-Schuster potentially bouncing back as he appeared in just five games due to a shoulder injury. Prior to injury, we were getting more of the 2020 version of JuJu as he was averaging just 8.6 yards per catch and a paltry 4.6 yards per target.
I have mentioned before that Smith-Schuster’s early career reminds me a lot like Randall Cobb, where we have been chasing that early-career ride, but now we can finally officially gain clarity on how much the Pittsburgh passing game impacted his decline.
Smith-Schuster will still only be 26 years old this November, leaving a passing game that regenerate downfield usage. His attachment to Patrick Mahomes and this offense will afford him much more space in the middle of the field, giving him more than enough enticement once again as an upside fantasy option on the WR3/WR4 line.
The Chiefs also have been looking for a third wheel in the offense behind Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Over the three seasons with Mahomes as the starter, the third-leading receiver has been Sammy Watkins (673 yards), and Mecole Hardman the past two seasons with 693 and 560 yards.
Kelce and Hill are still the players that dominate action in this offense. Over the time Mahomes has been under center, Hill and Kelce have combined to account for 44.1% of the team receptions, 48.8% of the receiving yardage, and 52.3% of the receiving touchdowns.
Christian Kirk is building a solid career, but for fantasy, he has finished as the WR53, WR32, WR55, and WR34 in points per game. Arizona has changed his role frequently during his tenure, but he will hit free agency here after posting a career-high 63 catches and 809 yards out of the slot in 2021.
Joining the Jaguars, Kirk has a path to be the target leader, but also in a muddled offense that has a number if questions, while Kirk himself has struggled when tasked to carry a passing game.
2021 was a lost season for Curtis Samuel. He had a groin injury in training camp that stunted the start of his season and limited him to just 84 offensive snaps all season. Samuel is still 26 years old and turned in WR36 and WR24 the previous two seasons while he will get a ton of steam from the community this season for those pursuing any potential of finding “another Deebo” at the position for fantasy after he led all wide receivers in touches in 2020 despite Scott Turner not fully utilizing Samuel as a dual-option during his time in Carolina.
After receiving 122 targets over his first two years in the league, Jakobi Meyers racked up 126 targets as the de facto WR1 in New England, catching 83 passes for 866 yards and two touchdowns. Meyers accounted for 23.6% of the Patriot targets, something that will be put in jeopardy if they ever add a significant playmaker for Mac Jones.
Tyler Boyd felt the sting of no longer being in contention for the top receiver on his team in 2021, clearly falling behind both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins as an ancillary option in the passing game. Boyd’s 5.9 targets per game were his lowest since 2017 while his receiving yardage per game has declined from the previous season in each of the past three seasons. A solid contributor, Boyd’s fantasy ceiling is now tied to either Chase or Higgins missing time.
Russell Gage is coming off two productive seasons with the Falcons. After catching 72-of-109 targets for 786 yards for four touchdowns in 2020, Gage stepped up again this past season, securing 66-of-94 targets for 770 yards and another four scores. Gage led the Falcons with 2.84 yards per route run against man coverage in 2021 per Pro Football Focus, a mark that was 11th in the league this past season.
While Gage has been at his best needing to accrue a large dose of targets to absences on the roster, there are paths here for him to still make in impact for fantasy as the WR3 in Tampa. Gage just turned 26 years old this past January. He joins a Tampa Bay offense led by Tom Brady, that has run the most passing plays (1,402) in the NFL over the past two seasons. This past season, Tampa Bay had 595 dropbacks with three or more wide receivers on the field, which was third in the league.
Gage also can get an early season bump with the timing of Chris Godwin’s injury. Godwin tore his ACL back on December 19th, placing his early-season availability in jeopardy. With the Bucs playing for a Super Bowl or bust, expect them to ensure Godwin is fully ready before forcing him onto the field.
Tier 10B (volatility) Dynasty Wide Receivers
Corey Davis (27.6)
Courtland Sutton (26.9)
Michael Gallup (26.4)
Kenny Golladay (28.8)
D.J. Chark (25.9)
Will Fuller (28.4)
Calvin Ridley (27.7)
These wideouts are in the same age bracket as the previous tier, but are your more volatile, splash-play-dependent wideouts over stacking target volume. If you are not in a full-PPR league, you can prioritize this archetype over the previous group while this group has more options that can get by on inefficiency and spike touchdown seasons.
Courtland Sutton flashed early last season with three WR1 scoring weeks over the opening six games, but things bottomed quickly after that. Over the next 11 games, Sutton caught just 25 passes total for 305 yards. We now have a 50-game sample with Sutton over his career, producing seven WR1 scoring weeks with another five weeks as a WR2 and four as a WR3. Denver locked up Sutton with an extension before he could free agency, while getting attachment to a quarterback finally willing to push the downfield can give Sutton a runway similar to Mike Williams a year ago.
Prior to a season-ending injury after nine games played, Corey Davis was averaging 3.8 catches for 54.7 yards per game. Improvement from Zach Wilson can lift the tide for Davis, who has been the WR32 and WR36 the past two seasons on a per-game basis, but the emergence of Elijah Moore is another potential roadblock in getting to Davis as a consistent fantasy play.
We have been chasing the opportunity for Michael Gallup to develop as a 1B type of a wideout but are once again stunted in that development after he played in just nine games in 2021, while suffering a torn ACL in early January as he hits free agency. Returning to Dallas was a best-case outcomes as he has to prove his health and upside again.
Kenny Golladay’s first season with the Giants was an outright disaster, catching 37-of-76 targets for 521 yards and zero touchdowns. Just 50.7% of Golladay’s targets were catchable (lowest rate in the league) while 41.3% of his targets were contested catches (the highest rate in the league). The positive spin is Golladay averaged 9.1 yards per target from Daniel Jones compared to 4.3 yards per target from the vagabonds they played when Jones was absent. The Giants have no choice contractually to go back to Golladay as a passing game asset and there is nowhere to go but up from last year in terms of quarterback play and offensive climate.
D.J. Chark was limited to just four games before an ankle injury cut his season short in 2021. Prior to injury, Chark had secured just 7-of-22 targets for 154 yards with a pair of scores.
Over his past 22 games played, Chark has averaged 3.7 catches for 48.7 yards per game, catching 55.0% of his targets.
Quarterback play has been a thorn for Chark. Just 47.4% of his targets were deemed catchable in his small sample of 2021 after 63.0% in 2020 (113th among wideouts with 25 or more targets) and 65.8% in 2019 (81st). Quarterback play could be another issue in Detroit paired with Jared Goff, especially where Chark has shown the best of his ability, which is downfield. On throws 15 yards or further downfield, Goff has ranked 35th (31.9%), 29th (38.4%), and 30th (39.0%) in completion rate over the past three seasons.
Will Fuller also had a lost season in 2021, playing just 65 snaps due to a finger injury that was still an issue earlier this month. Fuller was only able to land a one-year deal last offseason coming off his best NFL season, so we are likely looking at a prove-it situation in free agency this season.
There is still a lot of unknown surrounding Calvin Ridley after he left the Falcons after appearing in five games this past season due to mental health issues and potentially not wanting to be a part of the team in the first place while he been suspended for the entire 2022 season due to gambling on games while away from the team. By the time Ridley can play again, he will still have some meat left on the bone for his career, but will also be a soon-to-be 29-year old player with just one season reaching 900 yards that averaged 9.1 yards per catch and 5.4 yards per target when he last played.
Tier 11 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Jarvis Landry (29.8)
Odell Beckham (29.8)
Robert Woods (30.4)
Adam Thielen (32.0)
Sterling Shepard (29.6)
DeVante Parker (29.6)
Robby Anderson (29.3)
Marvin Jones (32.5)
This tier of wideouts are better and more established players than the 9A and 9B tiers but are closing in on the age apex while nearly the entirety of the tier is coming off significant injuries or lackluster output. We still may be able to squeeze out another tangible fantasy season or two here, but each comes with red flags.
Jarvis Landry is probably the “safest” here, but he has also turned in WR38 and WR41 scoring seasons per game the past two seasons as his receptions and yardage per game have dropped from the previous year in both. Landry has never been a touchdown scorer (clearing six scores in just one of his eight seasons). Landing in New Orleans, Landry’s days of pushing 130 targets are compromised.
Odell Beckham flashed that he can definitely still play with the Rams, but a torn ACL in the Super Bowl will impact his free agency and potentially push back his availability in 2022. Beckham’s best bet is to likely take another discounted deal to stay with the Rams and try to contribute as the season progresses, but we will have to wait to see if that outcome exists for him.
After acquiring Allen Robinson and the date approaching in which Robert Woods was set to his 2022 salary fully guaranteed, the Rams were rumored to be looking to move the veteran wide receiver. He found a home with the Titans for a sixth round pick, coming off the heels of Tennessee releasing Julio Jones last week.
Woods will turn 30 years old this April, coming off suffering an ACL injury in November after appearing in nine games. Prior to injury, Woods was a slow starter playing alongside the scorching hot run Cooper Kupp began on, which never slowed down. Woods opened the year up with just 15 catches for 172 yards through four games, but was finding his way with four top-20 scoring weeks over his final five games.
Woods still only managed to top 70 yards in two of his nine games. That raises the question on his dependence in being in the hyper-efficient Rams passing game and leaving for Tennessee. The Rams were the top passing offense in the league by expected points added (237.3) compared to the Titans ranking 18th (54.4). Rams also were an aggressive offense near the end zone with, ranking fourth in red zone passing rate (59.2%), while second in pass rate inside of the 10-yard line (58.4%), and first in pass rate inside of the 5-yard line (65.9%). 79.7% of the Rams offensive touchdowns in 2021 were passing touchdowns, the highest rate in the league.
Not just the gap in efficiency, but the Rams have also thrown 361 more passes than the Titans over the past three seasons.
Woods has been a player that has made a career of outproducing expectations, but hitting age 30, coming off a major injury, and trading a great passing game for a limited one where he will clearly be behind A.J. Brown, it is tough to see a lot of upside for Woods in his move to the Titans. Schematically, Woods is one of the best run blocking wide receivers in the NFL, if not the best, which was surely appealing to the Titans as a fit in their offense.
Adam Thielen averaged a career-low 10.8 yards per catch, but he remained one of the best touchdown-or-bust fantasy options, scoring 10 times over 13 games before an ankle injury cut his season short. Thielen will turn 32 this August, leaving those gamers still holding him to hopefully make one more touchdown-heavy drive into the sunset.
Sterling Shepard opened the year strong with 16 catches and 19 targets through two games, but once again was unable to stay on the field, missing 10 games. Shepard has been a WR4 or better for fantasy in all six seasons, but he now missed 20 games the past three seasons. Shepard could be a candidate to be released and have a new home this offseason as he can save the Giants $4.5 million if released before June, and $8.5 million as a post-June 1 cut while the Giants will want to expand Kadarius Toney’s role and are locked into Kenny Golladay.
DeVante Parker fought through another injury-filled season, catching 40 passes for 515 yards and two touchdowns. Since Parker’s breakout in 2019, he has come back as the WR42 and WR46 in points per game, missing nine games. Parker still commanded a respectable 7.3 targets per game (30th) to provide a floor when on the field, a total he can hit moving to New England.
After a breakout in 2020, Robby Anderson was unable to survive the offensive climate in Carolina last season. After averaging 5.9 receptions for 68.5 yards per game in 2020, Anderson averaged 3.1 catches for 30.5 yards per game last season. The silver lining is that he still received 110 targets (28th) and the Panthers gave him a contract extension before the season that has him still set up to be the WR2 in Carolina, but a major addition at quarterback is still required.
Marvin Jones received 120 targets last year (23rd), but how static will that remain since he was not brought in by this regime? Jones averaged 11.4 yards per catch and 6.9 yards per target (his lowest rates since his rookie season), but nobody survived the Jacksonville offense last season.
Tier 12 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Van Jefferson (26.1)
Josh Palmer (22.9)
Nico Collins (23.5)
Laviska Shenault (23.9)
Mecole Hardman (24.5)
Donovan Peoples-Jones (23.5)
Marquez Callaway (24.4)
We are still trying to figure out if there is real upside here with these younger wideouts. Although their draft profiles still paint them as having an uphill battle big picture, there has been some flashes along the way that have them as intriguing players still in many circles, especially at their current cost.
Van Jefferson increased his output and production up to a 50-802-6 line in his second season as the Rams were pressed to get him on the field more than initially planned with the release of DeSean Jackson and injury to Robert Woods. It was clear that the Rams had a role for Jefferson this year as a vertical target in the offense, but he may be pressed to even further expand his game in Year 3 if injuries to both Woods and Odell Beckham prevent each from returning to the team or limit their availability. If both do return, then Jefferson likely gets squeezed in-season.
Josh Palmer is a hot name in early offseason drafts with his potential to be a big winner should the Chargers not retain Mike Williams. In the three games that Palmer got on the field for 60% or more of the snaps as a rookie, he posted games of 5-66-1 (seven targets), 5-43-1 (six targets), and 4-45-1 (nine targets). Palmer still will hold value playing as the WR3 attached to Justin Herbert even with Williams returning, but the immediate upside is tied in his role extending, leaving him as a bench option.
Nico Collins secured 33-of-60 targets ranked eighth among rookie wideouts in targets (60) and fifth in yards per target (7.4). A runway to more involvement exists, but the short term quarterback questions and offensive viability in Houston, in general, are sandbags.
Laviska Shenault took a step back in 2021, seeing his yards per catch and target, catch rate, receptions, yardage, and touchdowns all drop from his rookie season. Shenault was mismanaged this season immediately following the injury to D.J. Chark when the team forced him to play outside, but then was clearly outplayed by Laquon Treadwell to close the season when he went back inside. 2021 was no shortage of a nightmare for the Jacksonville offense as a whole while Shenault still accrued 100 targets, but he will now be on his third coaching staff in three years while the team is a strong bet to keep adding playmakers.
Donovan Peoples-Jones was tasked as a lid lifter only in his extended run during his second season. Peoples-Jones has now averaged a robust 18.8 yards per catch on an average depth of target of 16.7 yards downfield. Peoples-Jones will need some dominoes to fall in his favor to command targets before being archetypes into Cleveland’s’ version of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but the addition of Deshaun Watson is a major plus.
Tier 13 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Allen Lazard (26.7)
Tim Patrick (28.8)
Jamison Crowder (29.2)
Kendrick Bourne (27.1)
Cedrick Wilson (26.8)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (27.9)
Braxton Berrios (26.9)
K.J. Osborn (25.2)
Nelson Agholor (29.3)
This is not the sexiest tier in terms of upside, but all of these later-round options are viable players at their position in real life that will keep them on the field and as fantasy reserves that can be used in a bind. The majority of the wideouts here have been contingent for fantasy based on another player on their roster missing time.
Allen Lazard is the most intriguing option here based on everything that has fallen this offseason in Green Bay.
Lazard has never caught more than 3.3 passes per game in his career. That said, he is coming off a career-high eight touchdowns. Lazard has played four games without Adams active the past three seasons, posting games of 4-65-1 (five targets), 3-42-0 (four), 5-42-0 (five), and 6-146-1 (eight).
Tim Patrick has led the Broncos in touchdown receptions in each of the past two seasons, posting solid campaigns of 51-742-6 and 53-734-5. Patrick was an older prospect, so he will be turning 29 years old this November, but is a steady contributor signed through 2024.
K.J. Osborn chipped in a productive season in his second year in the league, catching 50 passes for 655 yards and seven touchdowns. Kevin O’Connell, who comes from an offensive tree that has lived in 11 personnel. This past season, Minnesota was 26th in the league in offensive plays with three or more wide receivers on the field (583) while the Rams were first (906).
Tier 14 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Jalen Tolbert (23.5)
Tyquan Thornton (22.1)
Velus Jones (25.3)
Khalil Shakir (22.6)
Danny Gray (23.5)
Romeo Doubs (22.4)
Calvin Austin (23.5)
Our next tier of rookie wideouts that carry more hope than the remaining veterans available at the position.
Jalen Tolbert lands on a Dallas roster that lost 25.4% of the team receptions, 29.6% of the receiving yards, and 35% of the receiving touchdowns in 2021 from Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson exiting. Michael Gallup suffered an ACL injury in early January. Only James Washington was added in free agency.
Both Khalil Shakir and Romeo Doubs land with positive offensive attachment.
Tier 15 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Terrace Marshall (22.2)
Bryan Edwards (23.8)
Jalen Reagor (23.7)
K.J. Hamler (23.1)
Dyami Brown (22.8)
Anthony Schwartz (21.9)
D’Wayne Eskridge (25.4)
Parris Campbell (25.1)
Tyler Johnson (24.0)
Denzel Mims (24.9)
There is plenty of name recognition here, but the “truthers” for the individual players in this tier have been severely tested to start.
I personally was high on Terrace Marshall during the draft last year, but absolutely nothing went right for him over the past year to invoke confidence moving forward outside of hope. He fell in the draft due to medical concerns, Robby Anderson was extended, he played poorly and lost playing time as the season went on, and the offensive coordinator that he also had in college and likely vouched for his addition in the draft was fired.
Tier 16 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Julio Jones (33.6)
Cole Beasley (33.3)
A.J. Green (34.1)
Emmanuel Sanders (35.5)
T.Y. Hilton (32.8)
Father Time comes for us all and these wideouts have given us a lot to be grateful for, but they are also on the final legs of their careers. There is not much any of these players can do to increase their value moving forward, but they aren’t completely dead yet, either.
Julio Jones still averaged 14.0 yards per catch, 9.0 yards per target, and was 25th in yards per route run (1.84), so he can still play. He is worth a look here if anyone is giving him away, but the downside is that he played missed seven games after missing seven in 2020 and played 70% of the snaps in just three games on a low-volume Tennessee passing offense.
A.J. Green also gave us some spark in 2021, averaging 15.7 yards per catch and 9.2 yards per target with the Cardinals while giving us nine top-40 scoring weeks.
Tier 17 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Zay Jones (27.4)
James Washington (26.4)
Laquon Treadwell (27.2)
Tre’Quan Smith (26.7)
Byron Pringle (28.8)
Isaiah McKenzie (27.4)
These wideouts are a lesser version of Tier 13, but all our in the same mold that they will be on rosters, get second and third contracts in the league, and can run into extended playing time through situation or injuries.
Tier 18 Dynasty Wide Receivers
Erik Ezuknma (22.6)
Kyle Philips (23.2)
Jalen Nailor (23.5)
Mike Woods (22.5)
Marquez Stevenson (24.5)
Lynn Bowden (23.9)
Amari Rodgers (22.9)
Tutu Atwell (22.9)
Tylan Wallace (23.3)
Shi Smith (23.8)
Jaelon Darden (23.6)
Ihmir Smith-Marsette (23.0)
Ashton Dulin (25.3)
Mike Strachan (25.1)
Quez Watkins (24.2)
Simi Fehoko (24.8)
Quintez Cephus (24.4)
Dez Fitzpatrick (24.7)
Jauan Jennings (25.1)
Our Hail Mary dart throws to sell yourself on making a deep swing.