Yesterday, we took a look at which players rose the most in average draft position since the NFL Draft on the two largest best ball forums. This allows us to maintain a more current pulse for where players are now being valued that were impacted by recent news. In the 2020 content hub, you can find best ball strategy and optimal roster construction per position as well as player rankings that are updated through the offseason. Throughout the offseason, we want to provide updates on player movement in best ball drafts.
After highlighting those players who climbed the charts, we are going to look at a few of the top players who were negatively impacted by the draft and where their current value now lies.
Post-NFL Draft ADP Fallers
*ADP From 4/27-5/13, prior ADP From 4/1-4/25
Right away, we see a number of running backs that were immediate losers exiting the draft and where those backs have now settled in the eyes of fantasy gamers.
Darrell Henderson was one of the largest climbers when we last looked at ADP movement following free agency. But he jumped ahead of our own rankings then and now has immediately had a decline in cost since the Rams went and added Cam Akers a full round ahead of where they traded up to select Henderson a year ago.
Henderson is still just one year in and will receive opportunities. Owner Les Snead a year ago suggested that the team could go with a “Batman and Robin” approach in limiting Todd Gurley with their backfield, but that never played out in Henderson’s favor. His age, team investment and collegiate production all do have potential in making Henderson a decent later-round dart throw should Akers have similar rookie season issues that Henderson faced, but Henderson’s overall cost still has not slipped enough since he also stands to potentially have a role that could offer zero standalone value if he’s not able to significantly build on the 46 touches he had as a rookie.
Marlon Mack, Damien Williams, and Kerryon Johnson all took substantial hits in 2020 value as their workloads have been compromised. All three of those players are still being valued higher than where I have them in top-200 rankings, so the drop for all has not quite met the cost I am currently willing to pay for the level of risk involved with each of these backs. I do believe that the inaugural-season workloads for the rookies that these teams acquired is also being oversold, but there is more downside in each of these backs here that have fallen than actual upside at this point without an injury.
What is interesting here is that D’Andre Swift also was a slight faller post-draft while nearly all of the other rookie backs rose in cost. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 games over his first two NFL seasons, but can contribute in the rushing and passing game and still has two years left on his rookie contract, whereas both Marlon Mack and Damien Williams are on expiring deals with their respective teams. Fantasy players are treating Swift’s situation as having more full-season committee potential than having a potential changing of the guard.
Another rookie that has sagged a bit since the NFL Draft has been Jerry Jeudy. After being drafted by the Broncos, Jeudy has not only dipped in cost, but so has Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton (who fell -4.5 places on Fanball and -5.9 spots in FFPC) as fantasy players are likely questioning how many stable fantasy options can Drew Lock support in 2020 despite being excited about the talent level that was put in place around him.
Even in a more open target tree in 2019 than we can expect in 2020, Sutton and Fant both struggled in their small sample of play with Lock under center. Fant posted a 10-188-1 total line in his five games with Lock while Sutton was the WR38 or lower in four of those five games played.
Curtis Samuel continues to sink well past the window in which the Panthers added Robby Anderson this offseason. Falling to WR56 at Fanball and WR60 in FFPC formats during this draft period, Samuel now has some appeal at cost, especially factoring in the best ball format of not having to set a lineup. The addition of Anderson absolutely hurts Samuel from increasing the 16.6% team target share he had in 2019, but having Anderson on the field also can alter Samuel’s deployment in a way that can help him run into more efficient targets with the opportunities that he receives.
Samuel’s depth of target has climbed from 9.4 yards as a rookie, up to 12.2 yards in 2018, and up to 14.8 yards a year ago as he has been forced to take on the role of a field stretcher in the Carolina passing game. Entering the league, Samuel was more of a near the line of scrimmage player, something that he could naturally get back to with Anderson now on the field in conjunction with Teddy Bridgewater and Joe Brady’s passing scheme.