If you have been into fantasy football as long as I have, you’ll know that fantasy rankings started when we had way less info than we do now.
Back in the 1990s and early 2000s, we all showed up for our fantasy drafts with magazines that had rankings in the back. They were our go-to guides, but they haven’t really changed much since then.
They used to work fine when most folks did just a few drafts a year, but now with best ball formats, where some of us do hundreds of drafts annually, they don’t quite cut it.
Yet most of the fantasy industry still pumps out rankings like it is 2005. These are not bad per se, but they don’t give you the texture of understanding that I try to draft with.
So, when I was asked about creating Best Ball Rankings for the Sharp Football Draft Kit, I didn’t want to stick with the old-school rankings.
That’s why I came up with these Confidence Rankings, which are designed to give you the nuance and know-how needed to ace your best ball drafts by identifying which players to target at their current ADP (average draft position).
Click here for Tod’s updated Best Ball Confidence Rankings as part of the Sharp Football Draft Kit
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How to Use Best Ball Confidence Rankings
In these rankings, you’ll see that a lot of the spaces have no color (neutral). That means you can stick with ADP or go slightly ahead or behind, depending on your draft strategy and what players you are eyeing.
Early in drafts, stick mostly to ADP for neutral players. As the draft goes on, feel free to move these players up or down as your strategy and personal likes dictate.
Most players are neutral at any given time. Another way to consider neutral is like the old-school rankings. Now keep in mind these are not my rankings but the current ADP that we cull from Underdog Fantasy each week.
This is where you are likely going to be able to draft these players, and there is no harm in taking these players or passing on them for another neutral player when you are on the clock.
Just like at a traffic light, think “go” when you see green (target). In our confidence rankings, green means you can confidently pick that player ahead of their ADP.
That might be three or four picks earlier in the early rounds. For example, Bijan Robinson in early drafting was a green pick at No. 9 overall. However, now he is at No. 5, so at that price he is a neutral pick.
Later in the draft, green players are probably undervalued by a couple of rounds. If you are trying to ramp up this player’s roster percentage, you can take him early or see if he falls to ADP.
A perfect example of this earlier this draft season was Marshawn Lloyd. I built up almost 50% roster percentage on him in my first 20 drafts but, as I will point out below, targets likely will not stay targets for long.
My current roster percentage for Lloyd through 44 drafts is down to 35% as the “field” has caught up with my early evaluation for this player.
I typically try to limit my roster percentage on players in the first and second rounds to 15% and later players to 25%, but if a player is likely to move up ADP, it is ok to build beyond those numbers through July and naturally let exposure decrease in August.
So to summarize, I am trying to build up my roster percentage on green players while I can. Historically if you are right on your green players as I was with Robinson and Lloyd, the discount narrows as other smart analysts and players come to the same conclusion.
Blue in the rankings represents value.
A value is a guy who I like a bit more than neutral. They are someone I will often take when he is available at ADP, but I don’t feel the need to reach for that player.
For blue, I am also willing to reach slightly to get them in a stack since the value you give up in ADP is repaid through the value of the stack.
Yellow is like a caution sign. It means you might want to wait a bit before picking that player. I am only taking yellow players when they fall a tier.
That doesn’t mean I necessarily like them a tier lower, but time and history have shown me that I am often wrong on players, so taking them at a discount is how I want to end up with 3-5% of this kind of player.
Another way I will take a yellow player is if they complete a stack. A perfect example of that kind of player for me right now is Dalton Kincaid. If I have Josh Allen, I will take him as long as there isn’t a blue or green player close enough.
And then there’s red. That’s a no-go.
If a player is red, they’re way overpriced, and I wouldn’t touch them at their ADP. They’re not likely to fall far enough for me to want to draft them.
Early rounds players are so talented that you might rarely see a red player that high, but there is one there now in Marvin Harrison Jr. I don’t care how talented he is, I am not taking a rookie not knowing his landing spot that early.
You will notice that while neutral dominates the rankings and blue and yellow are not uncommon, green and red are fairly rare. ADP tends to be pretty good overall, so that makes sense
Thanks for joining me on this journey. I hope these rankings make your drafting experience smoother.
And hey, I’m always up for a debate on Twitter. Nobody’s got all the answers, right?
Now, let’s get drafting!
2024 Best Ball Confidence Rankings: Top 36 Preview
Click here for Tod’s updated full rankings
- Target (Green): Undervalued at ADP
- Value (Blue): Slightly undervalued at ADP
- Neutral (No Color): Correctly valued at ADP
- Caution (Yellow): Slightly overvalued at ADP
- Avoid (Red): Overvalued at ADP
