The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Raiders and Broncos.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Denver | Rank | @ | Las Vegas | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | Spread | 7.5 | ||
| 24.0 | Implied Total | 16.5 | ||
| 23.7 | 13 | Points/Gm | 14.9 | 31 |
| 18.2 | 4 | Points All./Gm | 25.7 | 26 |
| 63.4 | 11 | Plays/Gm | 57.5 | 28 |
| 64.3 | 26 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.3 | 21 |
| 5.4 | 15 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.5 | 30 |
| 4.5 | 1 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 13 |
| 41.26% | 23 | Rush% | 38.41% | 29 |
| 58.74% | 10 | Pass% | 61.59% | 4 |
| 39.04% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 47.19% | 27 |
| 60.96% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 52.81% | 6 |
- The Broncos have a league-high +37 sack differential.
- The Raiders have a league-worst -23 sack differential.
- 42.9% of Las Vegas possessions fail to gain a first down, the highest rate in the league. The league rate is 31.6%.
- 40% of the possessions against Denver fail to gain a first down, 2nd in the league.
- 39.1% of the possessions against Las Vegas fail to gain a first down, 3rd in the league.
- Denver has allowed a league-low 30.8% conversion rate on third downs.
- Denver has allowed a league-low 39.4% red zone conversion rate into touchdowns.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Bo Nix: Nix did not come through with a spike week on Sunday night against Washington, ending the week as the QB15 (16.4 points).
Nix has now been the QB15 or lower in eight of 12 games, with his spike weeks coming against the Giants, Bengals, and Cowboys.
Nix has thrown for 295 and 321 yards in his past two games.
With some better touchdown luck, he could have had better outcomes.
That said, he needed overtime to stack that yardage on Sunday night.
Through four quarters, Nix was 25 of 41 (61%) for 250 yards (6.1 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
He then went 4 of 4 for 71 yards on the overtime possession.
Nix has completed 61.6% of his passes (27th) for 6.3 yards per pass attempt (28th) now for the season.
He has struggled to find consistency, and we have not been able to exploit some of the better matchups he has had of late.
That includes the first game between these teams in Week 10.
Nix was the QB25 (5.8 points) that night, completing 16 of 28 passes (57.1%) for 150 yards (5.4 Y/A) with a touchdown and 2 interceptions.
The Raiders pressured Nix on a season-high 44.8% of his dropbacks that night.
Under pressure this season, Nix has completed 42.7% of his passes (26th) for 4.2 yards per pass attempt (32nd) with 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
That night, Nix was 5 of 12 (41.7%) for 16 yards (1.3 Y/A!) with 2 interceptions when pressured.
Kept clean, he was 11 of 16 (68.8%) for 134 yards (8.4 Y/A) with a touchdown.
That pressure rate was an outlier for both the Denver offensive line and the Las Vegas defense.
The only quarterback that the Raiders pressured more this season was Shedeur Sanders.
Due to recent output and leaving production on the table, Nix is a matchup-based QB2.
While he let down in the first matchup between these teams, I would expect Nix to perform better in the rematch, even if we still aren't trusting him as a QB1.
The Raiders have allowed only three spike weeks this season on passes, but they have allowed a league-high 8.6 yards per pass attempt since these teams last played.
Geno Smith: Smith completed a season-high 78.3% of his passes (18 of 23) on Sunday with 2 touchdowns.
That was only the fourth time this season he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game.
Unfortunately, he threw for only 165 yards and his 14th interception, tied for the most in the league.
Smith ended the week as the QB22 (12 points), his ninth game this season in the back-half of weekly scoring.
Smith is a back-end QB2 against a front-end pass defense.
Denver has allowed a 57.8% completion rate (second), 6.3 yards per pass attempt (third), and a league-low 2.6% touchdown rate through the air.
They are allowing the fewest passing points per attempt (0.323)/
When these teams played in Week 10, Smith was the QB27 (4.4 points), completing 16 of 26 passes (61.5%) for 143 yards (5.5 Y/A) with an interception.
Smith took 6 sacks that night as part of 46 sacks taken this season, 2 ahead of Cam Ward for the most in the league.
Running Back
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More Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Lions | Thursday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Chiefs | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Chargers | Monday Night Football |
