The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Thursday night game on September 12, 2019 at 8:20pm ET.
|53.3%||30||Opp. Rush %||44.44%||24|
|46.7%||3||Opp. Pass %||55.56%||9|
- In 2018, home teams were 12-3 straight up in non-Week 1 Thursday Night games while 9-4-1 against the spread.
- Tampa Bay has lost and failed to cover five consecutive Thursday Night games.
- The Panthers have lost seven consecutive games with Cam Newton as their starting quarterback, the longest such streak since he was drafted in 2011.
- After playing a league-high 91.6% of the snaps in 2018, Christian McCaffrey played 100% of the Carolina snaps in Week 1.
- McCaffrey has averaged 156.8 yards from scrimmage over his past nine full games played (he played just 10 snaps Week 17 of last season) with over 100 total yards in each game.
- With three interceptions in Week 1, Jameis Winston surpassed Blake Bortles for the most games (17) with multiple interceptions since he entered the league in 2015.
- Winston has finished as a QB1 in just one of his seven career starts against the Panthers while averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game.
Trust (spike production for that player)
- Christian McCaffrey: He doesn’t come off the field and puts up receiving points in a Marshall Faulk-like fashion. McCaffrey posted 179 and 168 yards from scrimmage in his two games versus Tampa Bay a year ago.
- Cam Newton: Coming off a preseason foot injury, Newton’s rushing was expected to be in question (three rushes for minus-two yards). We likely still won’t get that here, but Newton has averaged 22.1 fantasy points per game as home favorite of six or more points. The Bucs allowed a league-high 35.8 points per game on the road in 2018.
On the Cusp (proxy of a player’s average)
- D.J. Moore: Received 10 targets in Week 1. Moore now has seven or more targets in eight of his past nine games dating back to last season. He only has one touchdown over that span, which has limited his ceiling, but he’s a locked-in WR2 option here at home.
- Chris Godwin: He led all Tampa Bay wideouts with six targets a week ago and carries the highest touchdown upside of the group. After leading the team with 11 targets from the 10-yard line and in during 2018, Godwin had two more end zone targets from that area of the field in Week 1.
- Mike Evans: Playing through the flu last week, it was fantasy owners who were sick at the end of the day when Evans ended Week 1 with just two catches for 28 yards. Attachment to Winston in a spot where we’re down on the quarterback is rough to expect any type of a ceiling week, but Evans only needs a play or two to hit for fantasy and he still had 114 air yards in Week 1 while the next-highest Buccaneer had just 61.
- Curtis Samuel: Newton just isn’t going to have the raw passing yardage and completions to consistently support everyone in this offense and Samuel found himself on the short end of the stick in Week 1 in which he caught just 3-of-4 targets for 32 yards. His matchup is much lighter this week as he’ll trade Aqib Talib for Carlton Davis in coverage.
- O.J. Howard: Howard had a rough Week 1 with a lost fumble and just 32 yards receiving, but he played a career-high 55 snaps (78.6 percent).
Bust (down-week production for that player’s standards)
- Jameis Winston: Always carrying one of the largest gaps between ceiling and floor, Winston squandered a favorable spot a week ago as a home favorite. This week he goes on the road against a team that held Jared Goff to a QB28 scoring week.
- Buccaneers RBs: The Buccaneers spread out snaps among Dare Ogunbowale (27), Peyton Barber (25), and Ronald Jones (22) in Week 1, fulfilling our nightmares of a full-fledged committee. Jones looked the part with 93 yards on 14 touches, but Ogunbowale handled the passing work and we still don’t know who will be getting the goal line carries. As a road dog, Jones and Ogunbowale are low-level FLEX options.
If You Must (intriguing bench option or deeper league play)
- Greg Olsen: Olsen received nine targets in Week 1, but caught just four for 36 yards. He also is already dealing with a sore back that has him questionable on a short week. The Bucs were 25th against tight ends in 2018 and allowed eight receptions to George Kittle last week. Based on the matchup and liking his quarterback, the lights are on but Olsen is a mid-TE2 option. If Olsen is held out, Ian Thomas would be in play as a fringe-TE1 option. Over the final five games of 2018, Thomas was a top-12 scorer in four of those five weeks and was fourth for all tight ends in targets per game (6.4) over that stretch.
More Week 2 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: