|Tampa Bay||Rank||@||Las Vegas||Rank|
|35.5%||3||Opp. Rush %||41.6%||16|
|64.5%||30||Opp. Pass %||58.4%||17|
- The Raiders are allowing 6.2 yards per play (29th).
- Tampa Bay is allowing a league-low 4.6 yards per play.
- The Buccaneers have held opponents to a league-high 25 drives without a first down.
- The Raiders have just seven possessions on the season without a first down, the fewest in the league.
- The Buccaneers are first in the league in both pass defense EPA (19.6) and run defense EPA (7.9).
- Just 23.0% of the rushing attempts against Tampa Bay have gained five or more yards, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 35.3%.
- The Buccaneers have allowed just five carries to gain 10 or more yards on the season, the fewest in the league.
- Tampa Bay has allowed a league-low 2.3 completions per game of 20 or more yards.
- Derek Carr’s average depth of target is 7.5 yards and he is averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt in games with Henry Ruggs active as opposed to a 7.0 depth of target and averaging 7.5 Y/A without Ruggs active.
- Opponents have scored a touchdown on 36.2% of their possessions against the Raiders, the highest rate in the league.
Tom Brady: For as good as Brady has played overall, he has been a QB1 in just two of the opening six weeks of the season. Last week’s blowout did not help his cause, but he has thrown for fewer than 7.0 yards per attempt in four of the first six weeks. This week Brady gets a good draw against a Raiders defense that is 19th in passing points allowed (16.2 per game) and 26th in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.8 Y/A).
But that said, the Raiders have yet to allow more than two touchdown passes in a game while they have both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen on their resume due in part to the fact that they have not stopped the run. The matchup does nothing to move you off Brady since predicting that rushing script is tougher to nail down, with him as a high QB2 option.
Derek Carr: Carr is coming off his first QB1 scoring game of the year prior to the bye. He has been playing well, currently ranking seventh in passing points per attempt (.57). Though that was his first high-end week in context of the position, Carr has scored at least 20 fantasy points in three of his past four games. That said, this is a tough week to elevate him based on how strong the Bucs pass defense has been. The Bucs allowed Justin Herbert to be the QB9 in Week 4, but no other quarterback has been higher than QB22 against them this season, leaving Carr as a QB2 option.
Ronald Jones: Jones has rushed for 100-yards in three consecutive games. He has now accounted for 25.3% of the Tampa Bay offensive yardage, which ranks sixth among all running backs. Jones has 26, 20, and 25 touches the past three weeks with Leonard Fournette sidelined after having 15 and nine touches Weeks 2-3 when it looked like the door was open for Fournette to make a move on a larger role. Even if Fournette does return, you would have to believe Jones has earned the right to lead the backfield, but we have been here with Jones before.
The Raiders are 28th in rushing points allowed per game to backfields (18.4) and are allowing 5.2 yards per carry to backs (30th). Jones is an RB2 with upside regardless if Fournette returns, but if he remains out, Jones is an RB1 option.
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs has RB1 and RB5 overall scoring weeks against the Panthers and Chiefs with RB24 or lower scoring weeks against the Patriots, Saints, and Bills. The Bills matchup is throwing off the matchup-bias results, but those are all also his three games without reaching the end zone. After a hot start out of the backfield through the air, Jacobs’s passing game usage has been more modest, catching 11 passes for 62 yards over his past four games.
The Bucs are allowing a league-low 2.9 YPC to running backs and the most yards rushing they have allowed to an individual back is 59 yards. They have allowed five rushing touchdowns to give some life here. They do rank 25th in receiving points allowed to the position, but we cannot count on Jacobs there. In a tougher draw, Jacobs is more of a mid-RB2 based on volume that we need to find the end zone here.
Mike Evans: Evans has now caught 19-of-27 targets for 267 yards in three games without Chris Godwin active and 4-of-10 targets for 14 yards in the three games they have played together. In two of those three games, Evans worked against Jaire Alexander and his kryptonite in Marshon Lattimore (the only WR he has guarded this year), but the 14 yards over those three games is a ridiculous floor. He has scored three touchdowns in those games to help the cause.
Evans has also been playing hurt. He has yet to miss a game, but has dealt with a hamstring to start the season and an ankle injury the past three weeks. The Raiders have faced the fifth-fewest targets per game since teams regularly lean on the run against them, but do rank 28th in yards per target (9.6 yards) and 26th in fantasy points per target (2.03) to wideouts. Evans is tough to outright bench and has shown that he offers scoring upside, but is more of a volatile WR2 option until we see his health and target volume stabilize when this offense is fully together.
Chris Godwin: Godwin has at least five receptions in all three of his games played and has been efficient, securing 16-of-20 targets. But his yards per catch have gone from 15.5 yards per grab in 2019 to 11.9 yards to start this season, which has resulted in nearly a 32 yard loss in receiving yardage per game than the pace he had a year ago.
As mentioned with Evans, the Raiders are no matchup to hide from as they have struggled per target when teams do throw, but we have had a decent sample to suggest that both of the Buccaneer wideouts or not in remotely the same offensive climate that they were a year ago. Godwin is a floor-based WR2/WR3.
Henry Ruggs: Ruggs hit on his first splash play of the season back in Week 4, but he still has had just five, three, and three targets in his games played with six total receptions. The Bucs have allowed the fewest completions of 20-plus yards per game in the league. Ruggs only needs to hit one, but is boom-or-bust WR4 that we would like to see earn more overall targets and intermediate/versatile targets out of the bye.
Raiders WRs: After having eight and nine targets Weeks 3-4 with Ruggs sidelined, Hunter Renfrow has had just two, three, and one target in his other three games. Nelson Agholor has run ahead of Renfrow and has been effective, catching 10-of-11 targets for 185 yards and a three touchdowns, but the overall targets have not been there, with four or fewer in every game.
Darren Waller: Waller comes out of the bye second among all tight ends in targets per game (9.2) and first in target share (27.5%) at the position. He has been a top-5 scorer in three of his past four games with five or more catches in four of five games. The functional tight ends to face the Bucs so far have been Jared Cook (5-80-0), Noah Fant (5-46-0), Hunter Henry (2-39-0), Jimmy Graham (3-33-1) and Robert Tonyan (3-25-0). The matchup may not be glowing for ceiling expectations, but Waller is a top tight end by default at the position based on his opportunity alone.
Rob Gronkowski: Gronk has shown signs of life after a rough start to the season. Over the past four weeks, Gronk is third among all tight ends in air yards and third in end zone targets. He also ranks third in yardage produced over that span (207) while seventh in targets (23). He has six or more targets in three of his past four. Gronk has still had a low floor, but we will take any live usage and upside we can get at the tight end position. The Raiders have faced just Travis Kelce (8-108-1) and Jared Cook (2-13-1) as tangible tight ends this season, not giving us much to work with in terms of a matchup, but Gronk is in play as a TE1 based on his downfield targets and end zone looks.
More Week 7 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: