Buccaneers vs Steelers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 6

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday afternoon game.

• Neither the Buccaneers (0-of-10) nor Steelers (0-of-14) have scored a touchdown on a first quarter possession through five weeks.
• The Steelers have two passing touchdowns, the fewest in the league.
• Those two passing scores are the fewest for the Steelers through five games of a season since 2000.
• Just 22.8% (13-of-57) of the Pittsburgh drives have reached the red zone, ahead of only the Texans (20.7%).
• The Buccaneers are forcing 5.6 sacks plus turnovers per game, the most in the league.
• Pittsburgh has allowed 28 plays of 20 or more yards, 31st in the league.
• 20.4% of the Tampa Bay rushing attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, 31st in the league.
• Just 9.8% of the Tampa Bay yardage has come via rushing the past three weeks, the lowest rate in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Tom Brady (TRUST): The Buccaneers have started to get more aggressive as they’ve gotten healthier, with Brady throwing 52 passes in each of the past two games. After being 1% below pass rate expectation over the opening three weeks this season, the Bucs have been 16% and 18% over pass rate expectation the past two weeks. It also helps that the Buccaneers have just been unable to get anything going on the ground. 

With the added passing volume, Brady has thrown for 385 and 351 yards the past two weeks. He has ended those weeks as the QB4 (25.4 points) and the QB7 (19.7 points). Last week they just didn’t close enough drives with trips to the end zone. Brady has now thrown more than one touchdown pass in just one of his opening five weeks. 

Tampa Bay should have little resistance moving the ball through the air here. Pittsburgh is allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt (26th), a 5.2% touchdown rate (26th), and 17.2 passing points per game (26th) to opposing passers. 

Kenny Pickett: Making his first career start in Buffalo, Pickett connected on 34-of-52 passes for 327 yards (6.3 Y/A) with no touchdowns and an interception. Pickett added 10 yards rushing on one carry. 

The way Pickett handled pressure in college was a major point of emphasis and it was an issue in his first career start. Pressured on 30.4% of his dropbacks, Pickett was 6-of-14 for 64 yards (4.6 Y/A) when pressured.  

After facing a sturdy Buffalo defense, Pickett gets no favors again here in his first home start against a Todd Bowles-led Tampa D. the Bucs are 11th in pressure rate (33.3%), third in sacks (19), and sixth in rate of sending five or more pass rushers (29.3%). Through the air, Tampa Bay is allowing 6.1 yards per pass attempt (fourth) and 12.3 passing points per game (12th).

Pickett will need to use his legs here to carry him as a 2QB option.

Running Back

Leonard Fournette: Fournette rushed 14 times for 56 yards (4.0 YPC) as the Bucs again struggled to generate much room against the Falcons. That now gives Fournette 153 yards rushing on 53 carries over the past four games after 127 yards rushing in Week 1.

That said, Fournette did find the end zone for his first rushing touchdown. He also has shown that when this offense does go with a pass-first approach he carries a significant role as a pass catcher. After catching seven passes for 57 yards and a score in Week 4, Fournette plucked 10 receptions for 83 yards and a score through the air this past week. 

Fournette’s route participation is way down the past two weeks (47.2% and 54.7%), but he has been targeted on 28.0% and 34.5% of his routes after a 15.1% rate over the opening three weeks.

We once again have Fournette tied to one of the largest favorites of the week. The Steelers are allowing 15.3 rushing points per game to backs (25th) to keep the door open for some added efficiency on the ground for Fournette to go along with his receiving work. Fournette remains an RB1 with added upside in full-PPR formats.

Najee Harris: Last week was more of the same for Harris as he turned 14 touches into 36 yards. Harris now has 89 or fewer total yards in every game this season. His efficiency remains non-existent, rushing for 3.2 YPC. Catching 3-of-4 targets for 16 yards on Sunday, Harris now averaging just 4.9 yards per reception while averaging just 2.6 catches per game. 

It is hard seeing things getting better for Harris here. The Bucs are allowing 4.07 YPC to backs (ninth) while also allowing 5.8 receiving points per game to backs (third). 

Harris is stuck as a volume-based RB2/FLEX.

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans (TRUST): Evans caught 4-of-8 targets for 81 yards on Sunday. Since receiving 25.9% of the team targets in Week 1, Evans has seen 19.2% and 16.0% of the team looks the past two weeks, but with the Bucs throwing the ball more, Evans has 10 and eight counting targets in those games, which is plenty enough for the top downfield and end zone target on the team. Evans has a reception of 30 or more yards in each of the past three games while leading the team with five end zone targets.

The Steelers have allowed 20.6 points per game to opposing WR1 options (29th) while ranking 31st in the league in points allowed per game to boundary wideouts (30.7). Pittsburgh has already allowed five top-12 scoring weeks and five 100-yard games.

Chris Godwin: Godwin was held to a modest 6-61-0 lie on six targets on Sunday. With the Bucs way ahead early, they openly talked about giving Godwin workload management throughout the game. Godwin ran 22 pass routes in the first half, catching five passes for 58 yards. In the second half, Godwin ran just five routes, catching one pass for three yards.

As huge favorites here again, we could see Godwin share more work, but he was a prime target while the Bucs were stacking their lead and were in their base offense. While his usage last week ahead on the scoreboard can cap his ceiling if the implied total plays out accordingly here, this is still a good spot overall for Godwin as a WR2 even if limited.

The Steelers have been an equal opportunity defense for pass catchers. They have allowed eight different wideouts to reach the end zone through five weeks. They rank 29th in fantasy points allowed through the slot while allowing 9.6 yards per target to receivers on the inside.

If looking to take deep swings on the ancillary wideouts here based on the matchup and Godwin sharing reps in a blowout, Scotty Miller is the healthiest Tampa Bay wideout after Evans and Godwin with Russell Gage dealing with hamstring and back injuries while Julio Jones continues to work through a knee injury. If all dress Sunday, we likely see a rotation, with Gage the best bet for playing time.

Diontae Johnson: After a season-low 16.0% target share in Week 4, Johnson was back up to a 25.5% rate this past week, catching 5-of-13 targets for 60 yards.

Without a touchdown on the year and topping 60 yards just once, Johnson has lived as a floor-based WR3. He has finished lower than a WR3 just once through five weeks, but also has a high-scoring week as WR22. 

It will be hard to objectively move him much higher than that area here with Pickett having such a lackluster outlook and the Bucs allowing a league-low 49.3% catch rate and 4.9 yards per target to boundary wide receivers. 

George Pickens: Catching 6-of-8 targets for 83 yards, Pickens led the Pittsburgh wideouts in yardage for the second straight game. His 15.7% target share was his lowest in a game since Week 3, but Pickens has now secured 10-of-12 targets for 154 yards with nine first downs while Pickett has been under center.

Pickens is still working behind Chase Claypool from a route perspective but has established himself as the Steeler to take a chance on outside of Diontae Johnson. The matchup is far from appealing, but like last week, the pass volume should remain high enough to provide Pickens with enough counting targets to consider as a WR3/FLEX.

Chase Claypool: Catching 5-of-9 targets for 50 yards, Claypool gave us more of the same in Week 5. He has yet to register a top-40 scoring week or hit 20% of the team targets in any of the opening five weeks. 

Claypool is 14th among all wideouts in route participation rate (94.5%) but ranks 61st in target rate per route run (16.1%). 

If looking to keep some optimism in play for Claypool as a WR4 and bye week fill-in, the Bucs have been far better defending perimeter wideouts than from the slot so far, where Claypool is running 83% of his routes.

While Tampa Bay is tops in the league in defending the boundaries, they are allowing 10.7 yards per target to opposing slot wideouts, (29th) and 15.2 yards per catch (31st) to those options. 

Tight End

Buccaneers TE: With Cameron Brate sidelined in Week 5 due to a concussion, Cade Otton ran a route on 92.5% of the Tampa dropbacks, pulling in 6-of-7 targets for 43 yards.

We will follow Brate’s status throughout the week, but the Bucs tight end position from a top-down stance has been a low-ceiling TE2 unless we get a touchdown. The Bucs are throwing it more to open the door for catches and targets here, but Brate is averaging 9.1 yards per catch and Otton 7.6 yards per grab.

The Steelers are allowing a 61.8% catch rate (eighth) with one touchdown to opposing tight ends to open the season.

Steelers TE: With Pat Freiermuth suffering his third concussion in a year, we will proceed with caution that he will be available this weekend to open the week.

With Freiermuth sidelined mid-game, Zach Gentry played a season-high 64% of the snaps, catching 5-of-6 targets for 43 yards. If Gentry is elevated as the starter on Sunday, he will be in an area similar to the Bucs TE as a floor-based TE2 we hope catches a pass in the end zone. 

Tampa Bay has allowed a 75.6% catch rate (25th) and a 4.9% touchdown rate (19th) to tight ends.

More Week 6 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:

WAS at CHI | CIN at NO | JAX at IND | MIN at MIA | NE at CLE | NYJ at GB | BAL at NYG | SF at ATL | TB at PIT | CAR at LAR | ARI at SEA | BUF at KC | DAL at PHI | DEN at LAC