Cowboys vs. Chiefs Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 13

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 13 matchup between the Cowboys and Chiefs on Thanksgiving.

Find a breakdown of every Week 13 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes has slowed down over the past month, failing to log a week higher than QB10 over his past four games.

Mahomes failed to throw a touchdown pass for the second time in three games on Sunday.

After throwing 2 interceptions over his opening seven games, Mahomes has thrown 5 over his past four games.

Mahomes did throw for 352 yards on Sunday against the Colts, but he needed overtime and a season-high 46 pass attempts to elevate things.

He threw for 175 yards in the fourth quarter and overtime with 8.8 yards per pass attempt after throwing for 177 yards and 6.8 Y/A through three quarters.

He did rush for 30 yards.

That pushed him up to 318 yards rushing, clearing his total from a year ago (307).

Mahomes has rushed for a career-high 28.9 yards per game.

While Mahomes has been more of a fringe QB1 in recent weeks, this is another game environment that could push an upside outcome as a higher-end QB1.

There is even a chance that Dallas becomes an outright pass funnel after adding Quinnen Williams.

In Week 11 against Dallas, Las Vegas had a league-high 84.5% dropback rate.

Last week, the Eagles had a 74.1% dropback rate (4th) while leading for most of the game.

The Chiefs hardly need to be pressed to throw the football.

They lead the NFL in pass rate over expectations (+7.8%).

They ran heavy last week when invited, so we will keep tabs on it if Dallas wants to play back and invite the run.

But this pass defense appears to be the weakest link, even though it has improved with all the moving parts these past two weeks.

Even though they played better after a slow start, Dallas still allowed 15.6 passing points to Jalen Hurts on Sunday (10th most of the week).

Hurts scored 30.9 fantasy points.

They are still allowing a league-high 18.9 passing points per game to quarterbacks along with a league-high 5.7 rushing points per game to quarterbacks.

That provides the bullish signal for Mahomes, so let’s at least explore the bearish side.

If Dallas is going to repeat their success in the second half from last week and in Week 11, they will have to sustain a high-pressure rate.

Dallas is fifth in the league in pressure rate (40.1%).

They have had a 42.2% pressure rate the past two weeks without blitzing (3rd).

With pressure in those games, Dallas has allowed passers to complete 8 of 14 passes for 4.5 yards per pass attempt with 4 sacks.

Mahomes has been sensitive to pressure this year.

When pressured, Mahomes has completed 42.2% of his passes (28th) with a 3.7% touchdown rate (18th).

Mahomes has a 20.2% inaccurate throw rate under pressure, which ranks 30th in the league.

The Chiefs will be without Trey Smith here on the inside as well, while Williams has had a league-high 15 pressures the past two weeks with the Cowboys.

It will be interesting to see if Dallas breaks its tendencies here.

The Cowboys play man coverage on 14.1% of snaps (29th).

Mahomes has completed 55% of his passes (22nd) for 5.5 Y/A (26th) against man coverage compared to a 71% completion rate (13th) and 8.7 Y/A (5th) against zone coverages.

Even with those splits, I am not sure Dallas has the secondary to go aggressively in that direction.

The Chiefs are also on the road in a short week after an overtime game in which they ran a season-high 91 plays.

That is the most plays run by an offense in a game this season.

Those are always spots that add volatility.

I tagged in the bossman, Warren Sharp, for this one, but since 2000, teams on the road during a short week after overtime are 4-16 straight up (and against the spread).

Only seven of those teams were favorites.

Those teams were 2-5 (0-7 ATS) and averaged 6.25 points per game below expectations.

That is not anything I would lean on as religion here in determining the outcome, but it is a unique situation that does not come up often.

Dak Prescott: Prescott overcame a rough early interception in the end zone to complete 23 of 36 passes for 354 yards (9.8 Y/A) with 2 touchdowns and a rushing touchdown against the Eagles.

That was the most passing yards against a Vic Fangio defense since Josh Allen in 2023 (359).

He ended last week as the QB3 (27.1 points).

Prescott had a great game on Sunday against a front-end defense, which instills some extra confidence here that this game could be high-scoring and he can get over as a QB1 in another tough draw.

The Chiefs are allowing 11.1 passing points per game, fifth in the league.

The Cowboys will also be without an offensive lineman here, with Tyler Guyton expected to miss this week with an ankle injury.

Prescott’s three lowest-scoring games this season have come on the road.

Prescott is averaging 23.8 points per game at home, third in the league.

The Chiefs have been a bit more vulnerable defensively on the road, allowing a 69.7% completion rate (27th) and an 8.2 yards per pass attempt (30th), but have saved face by allowing only a 3.2% touchdown rate (8th).

Kansas City has also been vulnerable to the play-action pass.

The Chiefs are allowing 10.5 Y/A on play action passes (31st) compared to a league-low 5.8 Y/A on passes without play action.

Prescott has used play action on 28.4% of his dropbacks (sixth highest).

Using play action, Prescott has a 143.4 rating (2nd), completing a league-high 81.4% of his passes for 9.2 Y/A (5th) and an 11.5% touchdown rate (2nd).

On non-play-action passes, Prescott is 25th in rating (85.1), completing 64.6% of his passes (19th) for 6.7 Y/A (20th) and a 3.5% touchdown rate (28th).

As noted earlier, teams coming off overtime on the road during a short week have been vulnerable.

Albeit a small sample, six of those seven favorites have allowed their opponents to score more points than their implied team total.

Running Back

Javonte Williams: Williams rushed 20 times for 87 yards on Sunday, adding 2 receptions for 14 yards.

That volume-based RB2 range is where Williams resides.

He has averaged an RB18 per week over the past nine weeks, becoming more reliant on rushing efficiency and touchdowns to boost his fantasy upside.

Williams has only had 15 receptions over his past eight games and has had more than 16 yards receiving in one game this season.

His 0.41 yards per route run is 46th out of 51 backs with 100-plus routes this season.

The good news is that his rushing workload remains high, and he still is dominating the playing time in a high-scoring offense.

Despite the low output as a receiver, Williams has run a route on 59.6% of the dropbacks (RB5).

He has 74.4% of the backfield opportunities, RB8 on the season.

The Chiefs are allowing 73.3 rushing yards per game (fourth) while being battle-tested.

They have faced James Cook (114 yards), Saquon Barkley (88), Jahmyr Gibbs (65), Jonathan Taylor (58), Travis Etienne (49), Omarion Hampton (48), Derrick Henry (42), and Ashton Jeanty (21).

Kareem Hunt: Hunt accrued a massive workload Sunday, racking up 33 touches for 130 yards and a touchdown.

His 30 rushing attempts were a career high, while the touches matched a career best.

It was the most rushing attempts by a Kansas City back since Knile Davis had 32 attempts in Week 3 of 2014.

The Chiefs ran a season-high 91 plays to sustain that volume, but they also had a 61.2% neutral-script dropback rate, their second-lowest of the season.

Isiah Pacheco logged some practice time last week and is expected to return on Thursday.

Chasing Hunt’s high-touch game on a short week is not enticing, but if Pacheco remains out, we have not seen Brashard Smith receive any tangible touches.

Hunt has 70.6%, 87.5%, and 75% of the backfield touches in Pacheco’s absence.

If Pacheco remains out, Hunt is a back-end RB2/FLEX.

If Pacheco is back, Hunt is a touchdown-dependent FLEX, and Pacheco is also a touchdown-dependent FLEX.

Either way, I do believe we will need a touchdown for any of these backs to get over for fantasy.

We are still trying to see how good this Dallas run defense is, but we know they acquired the highest-graded interior run defender in Williams.

Over the past two weeks, they have allowed 43 rushing yards on 19 running back runs (2.3 YPC).

They have allowed -0.79 yards before contact on those runs.

That was against a terrible Las Vegas offensive line and a Philly team missing Lane Johnson, but those are noteworthy rates.

Wide Receiver

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