The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Falcons and Commanders.

Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

WashingtonRank@AtlantaRank
-2.5 Spread2.5
24.0 Implied Total21.5
26.77Points/Gm14.031
19.012Points All./Gm19.713
61.316Plays/Gm66.75
62.322Opp. Plays/Gm52.32
5.86Off. Yards/Play5.121
5.317Def. Yards/Play4.33
45.11%10Rush%45.00%11
54.89%23Pass%55.00%22
43.32%16Opp. Rush %45.86%22
56.68%17Opp. Pass %54.14%11

  • 3.5% of Atlanta's plays have gained 20 or more yards, ahead of only the Saints (1.9%).
  • Atlanta is averaging 1.31 points per drive, ahead of only the Texans (1.19).
  • 25% of Atlanta's possessions have reached the red zone (or scored prior), 29th in the league.
  • 24.1% of the possessions against Atlanta have reached the red zone (or scored prior), the second-lowest rate in the league.
  • Washington has scored a touchdown on 28.1% of their drives, sixth in the league.
  • Washington has allowed a 28.6% conversion rate (12 of 42) on opponents' third downs, the best rate in the league.
  • Washington is averaging 2.0 more yards per rushing play than their opponents, the best differential in the league.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Washington QB: Jayden Daniels remains “day-to-day” with a knee sprain.

Last week, Dan Quinn said that Daniels needed to practice in full to be able to play, so we will have to follow his status throughout the week.

If Daniels does get back on the field, there could be some restrictions on his mobility, but he would be back into the QB1 mix if he is healthy enough to start.

If Daniels does miss another game, then Marcus Mariota will be in line for another start against a former team.

We have now seen Mariota play extended time in three games for Washington, closing those weeks as QB8 (19.6 points), QB6 (26 points), and QB6 (20.3 points).

Mariota completed 15 of 21 passes for 207 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, rushing 6 times for 40 yards and a score.

Things could have been better, as Washington lost an offensive possession due to a punt return touchdown, had a 56-yard touchdown run, and Mariota himself lost a touchdown on a questionable call where Terry McLaurin was ruled down at the one-yard line.

Washington ran in a score on the next play.

In his limited time with Washington, Mariota has completed 75.4% of his passes for 8.8 yards per pass attempt and a 7.7% touchdown rate.

Should Mariota draw another start, he is back in play as a QB1 and streaming option.

This appears to be a tougher spot than the defenses he has faced in his three appearances, particularly while on the road.

Especially if Mariota will be without McLaurin this week.

Considering those factors, I would not be as bullish on Mariota as I was a week ago.

However, Mariota's system fit and rushing ability offer high-floor potential.

Carolina just woodshedded Atlanta, but their pass defense was still on par with what we have seen early this season.

Bryce Young only had 5.0 yards per pass attempt.

Atlanta has allowed 5.8 yards per pass attempt through three weeks, sixth in the league.

They have faced Young and J.J. McCarthy the past two weeks, so apply any grains of salt, but they also held Baker Mayfield to 5.2 Y/A in Week 1.

They have allowed 167, 158, and 121 passing yards so far over three games.

There is some overlap between what Atlanta is doing and what Mariota just saw a week ago.

Atlanta has played Cover 3 on 47.8% of their snaps, the second-highest rate in the league.

The only team ahead of them is the Raiders (55.4%).

Against the Las Vegas Cover 3 looks last week, Mariota was 8 of 11 (72.7%) for 9.9 yards per pass attempt.

Michael Penix: Sunday was the worst start for Penix in his early career.

He connected on only 18 of 36 passes for 172 yards (4.8 Y/A) with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions, one of which was a pick-six.

19.4% of his throws were inaccurate, 31st in the league last week.

Penix was only 4 of 16 on throws 10 yards or further downfield on Sunday, which has been an early-season issue.

Through three weeks, Penix has completed 32.4% (11 of 34) of his throws 10 or more yards downfield, which is ahead of only Cam Ward (32.1%).

This was only the sixth start of Penix’s career, so we will not completely run away, but he has now completed fewer than 60% of his passes in half of his early career starts.

Penix made his second start of his career in this matchup a year ago.

In that game, he completed 19 of 35 (54.3%) passes for 223 yards and a touchdown with an interception.

He was QB25 (11.2 points) in scoring that week.

Penix is a QB2 here, but this Washington defense could be severely banged up on Sunday, opening the door for some added upside.

Washington exited Week 3 with a plethora of injuries in their secondary.

Will Harris suffered a broken fibula and will be out for a while.

Trey Amos (calf) and Percy Butler (hip) also left the game.

The team brought in Darnell Savage as a free agent this week.

We will follow the availability of the injured pieces here, but Washington could be short-handed in the secondary this week.

Washington allowed 9.4 yards per pass attempt to Jordan Love in Week 2 and then 10.0 Y/A to Geno Smith last weekend.

We will put Penix’s downfield issues to the test as Washington has struggled to defend vertical passing to open the year.

On throws 10 or more yards downfield, Washington has allowed a 57.5% completion rate (23rd) for 502 yards (30th).

The one concern here, on top of Penix’s own faults, is that Washington can rush the passer.

They are fourth in pressure rate (46.9%).

When pressured, Penix is averaging 4.9 yards per pass attempt (23rd).

Running Back

To continue reading this article

and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of Rich's regular fantasy content, click below to learn more about our Fantasy Package.

Learn More
Already a Subscriber?Log In

More Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:

MatchupTime
Seahawks @ CardinalsThursday Night Football
Vikings vs. SteelersSunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET
Commanders @ FalconsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Saints @ BillsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Browns @ LionsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Panthers @ PatriotsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Chargers @ GiantsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Eagles @ BucsSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Titans @ TexansSunday -- 1 p.m. ET
Colts @ RamsSunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET
Jaguars @ 49ersSunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET
Ravens @ ChiefsSunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET
Bears @ RaidersSunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET
Packers @ CowboysSunday Night Football
Jets @ DolphinsMonday Night Football
Bengals @ BroncosMonday Night Football