In addition to all our detailed fantasy football breakdowns here at Sharp Football Analysis, you can also do your own research using our NFL Stats and Visualized Data tools.
To help you out, each week we’ll use these tools to highlight a few potential DFS stacks and value plays you may want to target for the upcoming slate of games.
All references to DFS salaries and scoring will refer to DraftKings. All betting spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
DFS GAME STACK TO TARGET: TENNESSEE TITANS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Seattle Seahawks’ passing game was fairly aggressive last week, which bodes well for their pass-catchers in a Week 2 matchup against the Tennessee Titans.
Using our NFL team receiving tracker, we can see Russell Wilson targeted D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the deep ball a combined five times.
Preventing big plays was an issue for Tennessee in 2020 and it appears to be a problem again. After Week 1, our explosive play rankings show the Tennessee defense ranked 29th, allowing 18% of pass attempts to go for 20 or more yards against the Arizona Cardinals.
Knowing both teams had a propensity to end up in shootouts last year 一 six Seattle games and seven Tennessee games topped 60 combined points 一 this could be a game to target in stacks.
Pairing Wilson with one of his deep threats, and throwing in one of the Titans’ top targets (Julio Jones or A.J. Brown) could prove to be a profitable stack. Or, if you’re expecting a Titans victory, go ahead and roster Derrick Henry on the Titans side of that stack.
DFS VALUE: ATLANTA FALCONS RUNNING BACK MIKE DAVIS
After posting 10.2 fantasy points in Week 1, Atlanta Falcons running back Mike Davis will probably be off the radar for most DFS players this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
That could give him added value as a contrarian play, especially on an affordable $5,400 salary.
While Davis didn’t produce at a high level against the Philadelphia Eagles, some trends did emerge which should allow us to consider rostering him even with the Falcons as heavy underdogs.
Our offensive target rate tracker shows the Falcons targeted their running backs on 27% of pass attempts last week, with six targets going to Davis.
With Atlanta also producing a solid 56% success rate on those running back targets, it will probably remain a feature of this offense.
DFS VALUE: MINNESOTA VIKINGS WIDE RECEIVER K.J. OSBORN
Minnesota Vikings second-year receiver K.J. Osborn was one of the surprise breakout performers of Week 1 with 14.6 fantasy points on nine targets.
One of the reasons his production was so unexpected was Minnesota’s tendency to only put two receivers (Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson) on the field in passing situations.
Our personnel grouping frequency tracker shows Minnesota threw the ball from 11 personnel only 35% of the time in 2020, the lowest rate in the league.
In Week 1, however, that rate shot up to 55%, allowing Osborne to get on the field at a consistent rate and finish with 46 routes run, according to Sports Info Solutions.
Perhaps this personnel shift was partially influenced by the game script 一 Minnesota trailed for the majority of the contest against the Cincinnati Bengals 一 but a similar script can be expected against this week as the Vikings are 4.5-point underdogs against the Arizona Cardinals.
Additionally, we have to consider the possibility of the injury to tight end Irv Smith Jr. forcing Minnesota to use more 11 personnel, as their tight end depth has been severely depleted. Smith will be out for at least a few more weeks and is eligible to return in Week 4.
Despite Osborn’s consistent usage, his salary remains near the floor at $3,300. With good reason to believe his usage remains similar to a week ago, we should consider him an excellent value in both cash games and tournaments.
