In addition to all our detailed fantasy football breakdowns here at Sharp Football Analysis, you can also do your own research using our NFL Stats and Visualized Data tools.
To help you out, each week we’ll use these tools to highlight a few potential DFS stacks and value plays you may want to target for the upcoming slate of games.
All references to DFS salaries and scoring will refer to DraftKings. All betting spreads and totals are from BetMGM.
DFS STACK: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
It’s probably time to start stacking lineups for Kansas City Chiefs games on a weekly basis. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) and company are weekly threats on offense, but the Chiefs defense is an abomination and there will be few easy wins for Kansas City this season.
In this particular matchup, stacking Chiefs weapons with Washington running back Antonio Gibson ($6,500) looks like a smart move.
Given the Chiefs’ explosive offense, it always makes sense for opponents to lean more heavily on the run game to minimize Mahomes’s possessions. And the Chiefs’ run defense has been among the most friendly in the league.
According to our explosive play tracker, the Chiefs’ defense is allowing explosive runs (10 or more yards) at the second-highest rate in the league.
Since Washington falls in the middle of the pack in success rate against tight ends, that doesn’t eliminate Travis Kelce ($7,000) from consideration, but there definitely appears to be an edge for Hill.
DFS VALUE: CINCINNATI BENGALS RUNNING BACK CHRIS EVANS
There’s no question Joe Mixon is the workhorse in the Cincinnati Bengals’ backfield, but since he’s dealing with an ankle injury, his workload has been diminished. Mixon played just 28% of the team’s snaps last week.
Mixon is not expected to miss this week’s game, but a reduced role is likely to continue, especially if the Bengals have the luxury of playing with a lead.
The Bengals are 3.5-point favorites over the Detroit Lions, which could lead to a positive game script for Cincinnati’s running backs. When playing with a lead, Cincinnati runs the ball at a 60% rate, among the highest in the league.
The next man up behind Mixon is Samaje Perine ($4,900) but Perine was placed on the COVID-19 injury list due to contact tracing. Perine is potentially eligible to return after two negative tests, but in his absence rookie Chris Evans ($4,000) would be in line for a larger role.
DFS VALUE: CHICAGO BEARS RECEIVER DARNELL MOONEY
Since Justin Fields took over as the Chicago Bears’ quarterback three weeks ago, Darnell Mooney ($4,300) leads the team with a 28.1% target share.
It would not be surprising if Allen Robinson ($5,300) re-emerged as a reliable weapon in this offense, but it’s clear Fields has some chemistry with Mooney.
Since Mooney already demonstrated a strong ceiling with Fields (21.5 fantasy points in Week 4) he should definitely be on our radar in this matchup with the Green Bay Packers.
Fields’s production has been inconsistent, but his primary issues appear to stem from an inability to handle pressure. According to Sports Info Solutions, Fields has generated -36.0 EPA on dropbacks versus pressure, compared +13.3 EPA when not pressured.
Since the Packers generate pressure at the seventh-lowest rate (34%), this could be one of the better matchups Fields will face, allowing him to connect with Mooney throughout the game.
