Falcons vs Bengals Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 7

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 7 Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals Sunday afternoon game.

Atlanta	Rank	@	Cincinnati	Rank
6		Spread	-6
20.75		Implied Total	26.75
24.3	8	Points/Gm	23	15
22.7	19	Points All./Gm	19.2	10
58.8	26	Plays/Gm	67.2	6
65.3	24	Opp. Plays/Gm	64.7	21
5.5	14	Off. Yards/Play	5	25
5.9	26	Def. Yards/Play	5.2	10
57.22%	2	Rush%	37.72%	22
42.78%	31	Pass%	62.28%	11
36.22%	4	Opp. Rush %	39.43%	10
63.78%	29	Opp. Pass %	60.57%	23

Atlanta is averaging a first down or touchdown once every 3.1 plays, fourth in the league behind the Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens.
Cincinnati is averaging 1.2 fewer yards per rushing play than their opponent, 31st in the league.
Atlanta is averaging 61.2 more rushing yards per game than their opponent, the largest differential in the league.
The Falcons are running 70.2% of the time on first down, the highest rate in the league.
Atlanta is averaging 122.9 fewer passing yards per game than their opponent, the worst differential in the league.
The Falcons are allowing 37.7 yards per drive, 30th in the league.
25.9% of the scoring plays against the Bengals have been touchdowns, the lowest rate in the league. League average is 57.8%.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Joe Burrow (TRUST): Burrow is coming off his best game of the year, completing 28-of-37 passes for 300 yards with three touchdowns, tacking on 25 yards and a rushing score on his way to being the highest scoring quarterback in Week 6.

Our own Dan Pizzuta highlighted how the Bengals finally swerved into running an offense that catered to Burrow’s strengths out of the shotgun. As a byproduct, the Bengals also had a passing rate 21% over expectation, their highest rate in a game this season.

We have seen Zac Taylor have these moments and they have ended up fleeting in the past, but an aggressive approach while moving away from early down, ineffective runs is something we have been clamoring for.

Cincinnati should do the same here as Atlanta is allowing a 69.0% completion rate (31st), 7.2 yards per pass attempt (21st), and a 4.1% touchdown rate (17th) to opposing passers. That cocktail has them allowing 16.9 passing points per game (27th). The Falcons are also 30th in the league in pressure rate (24.2%) and dead last in sack rate (3.2%).

Marcus Mariota: Mariota has given us back-to-back QB1 performances for the first time this season coming off a QB5 (24.2 points) against the 49ers.

Mariota was a hyper-efficient 13-of-14 passing for 129 yards with a pair of touchdowns while rushing six times for 50 yards and his third rushing touchdown on the year.

Mariota has thrown for fewer than 150 yards in each of the past three weeks and has a season-high of 229 yards passing, but he is now third in the league in rushing points at the position (38.6) behind Jalen Hurts (65.3) and Lamar Jackson (57.1).

Mariota will need to use his legs again here as a floor-based QB2 as the Bengals are allowing 10.7 passing points per game (seventh) and 0.29 passing points per attempt (fourth).

Running Back

Joe Mixon (TRUST): Mixon had a season-low 12 touches this past week, but he managed to catch his first touchdown pass on the year to smooth out his workload and 68 total yards.

Mixon only carried the ball eight times, but he was once again efficient on those runs, averaging 5.6 yards per carry for the second consecutive week. 20 of Mixon’s 22 carries over the past two games have come out of the shotgun, where he is averaging 6.2 YPC, with 3.3 yards per carry before contact.

For the year now, the Bengals are 16th in EPA per rush out of shotgun (-0.06) compared to 31st in EPA per rush (-0.23) under center. Atlanta is 29th in the league in yards per carry allowed (5.97) to runs out of shotgun.

We will see how sticky these changes the Bengals have made are, but there isn’t anything they should change here. Tied to a high team total and a home favorite, Mixon has one of his best outlooks of the season.

Falcons RBs: Atlanta has not had a top-30 scorer in the past two weeks since losing Cordarrelle Patterson.

Tyler Allgeier led this backfield in snaps for the second straight week, rushing 15 times for 51 yards. Despite being out-snapped by Allgeier, Caleb Huntley led the backfield with 16 carries, rushing for 59 yards of his own. Allgeier has run the most pass routes each week, but since Atlanta has minimal interest in actually passing or targeting their running backs when they do, Allgeier does not have a reception in either game.

Through six games, Atlanta running backs have 12 total receptions.

Both Allgeier and Huntley are low-ceiling FLEX plays as road underdogs, but we do know Atlanta will stick with the run by nature of their approach. The Bengals allow 9.3 rushing points per game (third) to opposing backfields.

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase: After four straight weeks as the WR29 or lower, Chase had a coming out party revisiting the Superdome. Chase snagged 7-of-10 targets for 132 yards and a pair of scores. Chase had a depth of target of 10.8 yards downfield while playing in the slot on 32.5% of his snaps, which was a season-high.

Even through the fantasy drought, Chase has consistently commanded targets. With another 27.8% of the targets this past week, Chase has now received over 25% of the team looks in five of six games this season. His 28.0% target share sits ninth among all wideouts while his 37.4% share of the team air yards is 10th.

While Chase can win against anyone as a WR1, we do want to see those slot snaps have some rollover this week. Atlanta is allowing 7.4 yards per target to wideouts on the outside (ninth) compared to 8.4 yards per target to slot receivers (18th).

Tee Higgins: Higgins only managed 47 yards on his six receptions Sunday, but we still came out of things positively after only logging one limited practice all week entering the game.

Higgins did have a season-low 6.1 aDOT without a deep target in the game, which is where his ankle injury could have impacted performance and usage.

That said, the fact that he was a full-time player and did suffer a setback was still a positive exiting the week. Higgins ran a route on 90.5% of the team dropbacks and still received 10 targets, the same number as Chase. Higgins has now matched or bested Chase in targets in three of his four full games played.

As noted above, Atlanta has allowed more efficiency to interior wideouts than on the outside, but they have allowed six touchdowns to perimeter wideouts (27th) to offer scoring upside for Higgins as a fringe WR1, who plays 80% of his snaps on the outside.

Drake London: London was once again a victim to the limited passing volume from the Atlanta offense, catching 3-of-4 targets for 40 yards.

London did once again have 28.6% of the team targets and was targeted on 23.5% of his routes, but his front-end rate stats only go so far when the Atlanta passing game hasn’t had more than 20 team targets available in each of the past four weeks.

London is being forced to live on efficiency and touchdown production in this offensive climate. Atlanta should be pressed to throw the football more here as a road underdog to help boost the low volume we have seen over the past four weeks, but this is also a tougher draw. The Bengals have not allowed a perimeter wide receiver to score a touchdown this season, where London runs 91.0% of his routes. They are also allowing 6.8 yards per target to boundary wideouts, fourth in the league.

London is a touchdown-dependent WR3.

Tyler Boyd: Catching all six of his targets for 66 yards, Boyd had his first double-digit PPR scoring week without a touchdown on the year. His 16.7% target share was a season-high, which has been his primary thorn since the team has run through Chase and Higgins a year ago.

Boyd’s primary fantasy appeal is still tied to contingent value, but he can be used as a floor-based WR4/FLEX in full-PPR formats through the bye weeks, especially with Burrow in a good spot overall. As mentioned earlier, Atlanta has also been spotty to slot wideouts, where Boyd played 83% of his snaps.

Tight End

Kyle Pitts: Pitts scored his first touchdown of the season and his first since Week 5 a year ago. Never mind that Pitts still only had three catches for 19 yards, take this small victory in what has been a terrible run out for those who invested an early-round pick here.

Pitts now has 13 catches for 169 yards on the season, topping 25 yards in just one of his five games this season.

Like London, Pitts has underlying good metrics, but this passing game is just so inherently small that there is limited opportunity overall. Pitts has been targeted on 25.0% of his routes (third among tight ends) with 1.69 yards per route run (eighth), but the Falcons have averaged 21.4 team targets per game when Pitts has been active.

You are hoping this week forces increased passing volume because you have to keep submitting lineups with Pitts locked in. The Bengals also offer some matchup appeal, allowing 7.9 yards per target (25th) to opposing tight ends.

Hayden Hurst: Catching three passes for 21 yards this past week, Hurst continued to be a limited fantasy option. His highest scoring week in a game without a touchdown has been TE13 while his 0.89 yards per route run rank 38th among all tight ends, leaving him as a touchdown-dependent TE2. Atlanta has allowed a 1.8% touchdown rate to opposing tight ends (seventh) if chasing that score in his revenge game.

More Week 7 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: