The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 4 Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers Monday Night Football game.
| Atlanta | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 25.25 | Implied Total | 32.75 | ||
| 30 | 6 | Points/Gm | 40.7 | 1 |
| 36 | 32 | Points All./Gm | 28.3 | 21 |
| 71.3 | 5 | Plays/Gm | 67 | 13 |
| 72.3 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 55 | 2 |
| 37.4% | 25 | Rush% | 46.3% | 8 |
| 62.6% | 8 | Pass% | 53.7% | 25 |
| 35.0% | 3 | Opp. Rush % | 38.2% | 11 |
| 65.0% | 30 | Opp. Pass % | 61.8% | 22 |
- Green Bay games have averaged a league-high 69.0 combined points per game through three weeks.
- The Packers’ 122 points scored are a franchise record over their opening three games of a season and the sixth-most all time.
- Green Bay has scored a touchdown on a league-high 48.1% of their offensive drives.
- Atlanta has allowed opposing teams to score a touchdown on a league-high 38.9% of possessions.
- Aaron Rodgers has been under pressure for a league-low 16.9% of his dropbacks through three weeks.
- Rodgers is averaging 1.14 passing points per attempt on deep throws, third in the league behind Josh Allen (1.30) and Russell Wilson (2.16).
- 8.1% of the offensive plays against Atlanta have gained 20 or more yards, the highest rate in the league.
- The Packers are third in non-passing fantasy points per game (96.4) while the Falcons are fifth (89.7).
- Atlanta is allowing a league-high 106.9 non-fantasy passing points per game through three weeks.
- The Packers are first in the NFL in yards per play (6.9) and last in the league in yards per play allowed (6.6).
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers (TRUST): Rodgers is hot to start the year, throwing for at least 8.0 yards per pass attempt in all three games with nine touchdowns to zero interceptions. He should get Davante Adams back this week while the Falcons have allowed the most passing points in the league through three weeks. Allowing the top scorer in the league the first two weeks to Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott, they then allowed 28.8 fantasy points to the Mitchell Trubisky/Nick Foles combo last week.
Matt Ryan: We highlighted last week that the Bears were a potentially lousy passing matchup while Ryan then lost Julio Jones mid-week and then Russell Gage in-game on his way to his lowest-scoring game (11.4 points) of the season. We still do not know if Jones will return this week while Gage will surely be on the doubtful side of things while in concussion protocol. Obviously, those two pieces are important for Ryan’s floor and ceiling. If Jones returns, the matchup is back in a favorable direction. Green Bay is 26th in passing points allowed through three weeks with multiple touchdowns passes allowed to Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, and Drew Brees. Keep tabs on the availability for Jones and Gage throughout the week to determine if Ryan is a QB2 option or a solid QB1 option.
Running Back
Aaron Jones: Was Aaron Jones supposed to score fewer touchdowns this season? I thought so too. So far, Jones has scored in every game this season and has been a top-15 scoring back in all three weeks despite having fewer than 90 yards in two of his three games. The Falcons have started the year out eighth in yards per carry to backfields (3.64 YPC), but are 25th in receiving points allowed to running backs with four touchdowns surrendered to backs through three games. With the way the Packers are scoring points as a team, Jones is a locked-in RB1 option.
Todd Gurley: Gurley has increased his yardage from 57 to 61 to 82 yards over the start of the season, but is still completely rushing dependent. Gurley has just three catches for three yards. In the two games Gurley has scored a touchdown, he has been the RB20 and RB18 and in the one he failed to reach the end zone was the RB50. The positive news is that the Packers are 23rd in rushing points allowed, the lowest team that Gurley has faced so far. Gurley is still a touchdown dependent RB2 option until he starts getting targets in the passing game.
Wide Receiver
Calvin Ridley: Ridley has reached 100 yards in all three games this season and leads the NFL in air yards by 176 over the next closest player. Without Jones active, Ridley received a career-high 35.1% of the team targets last week. The Packers have allowed the lead wideout on the opposing offense to score a touchdown in each of the opening three games, but only one wideout has topped 56 yards against them so far. With or without Jones, Ridley is a high-end WR1.
Julio Jones: Taking last week off and having an extra day in Week 4, Jones is on track to return to the lineup Monday Night. After dropping 9-157-0 in Week 1, Jones dropped a touchdown in Week 2 and could only muster a 2-24-0 line on four targets. Those four targets were his fewest in a game since Week 4 of the 2017 season after Jones had received eight or more targets in each of his previous 11 games played dating back to last season. As mentioned with Ridley, the Packers have limited opposing yardage to wideouts, but in the game that has the highest-game total in all of Week 3, you are plugging Jones right back into a WR1 spot.
Russell Gage: Gage is in concussion protocol, but as we seen with Sammy Watkins last week, that extra day to be available may make a difference despite players regularly missing the following week after being placed in protocol. We will monitor his status and if he unable to be cleared, Brandon Powell would take on his role in the passing game.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: After a WR12 scoring week in Week 1 (4-96-1), Valdes-Scantling has been the WR50 (3-64-0) and the WR113 (1-5-0). But with both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard now sidelined indefinitely, MVS is thrust into a larger role in the offense with Malik Taylor and Derrius Shepherd filling in behind him. Even through the down Week 3, Valdes-Scantling still leads the Packers in Air Yards (313) and carries an 18.4-yard average depth of target. Valdes-Scantling is now a boom-or-bust WR3/FLEX option against a soft Atlanta secondary while Rodgers is running so hot. The Falcons have been an equal opportunity passing defense, surrendering five top-24 scoring weeks to opposing wideouts and pairs of teammates to have top-36 scoring weeks in all three games this season.
Tight End
Hayden Hurst: Hurst has scored in each of the past two games, but has received 9.3% (3-38-0), 21.6% (5-72-1), and 8.1% (1-1-1) of the team targets through three games. Last week’s usage was particularly concerning factoring in the losses of Jones and Gage. Hurst has seen his routes run dip each week, running a pass route on 80.4%, 78.6%, and 65.0% of the team drop backs through three weeks. The Packers have allowed 11 catches for 139 yards and zero touchdowns to tight ends through three games facing the Vikings, Lions, and Saints. Hurst is in a high volume offense, but is a boom-or-bust TE2 until his usage stabilizes.
Robert Tonyan: Tonyan still has an edge over Jace Sternberger and Marcedes Lewis in routes run as he has run 23 and 20 pass routes the past two games to 12 total for Lewis and 12 for Sternberger. Tonyan has scored the past two weeks with an end zone target in each and is coming off a season-high five catches for 50 yards and a score on five targets. The Falcons have been giving to tight ends so far, allowing 4-24-1 to Greg Olsen in Week 1, 9-88-1 to Dalton Schultz in Week 2, and 6-60-2 to Jimmy Graham a week ago. Tonyan is a low-volume target, but a flier for those hurting at the position or playing the MNF slate in DFS.
More Week 4 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
DEN at NYJ| LAC at TB | CLE at DAL | PIT at TEN | SEA at MIA | MIN at HOU | IND at CHI | NO at DET | ARI at CAR | BAL at WFT | JAX at CIN | NYG at LAR | NE at KC | BUF at LVR | PHI at SF | ATL at GB
