Fantasy Football ADP, 2023: Updated Underdog ADP & Analysis

Average draft position (fantasy football ADP) is one of the most important tools in fantasy football.

Not only is it important to know where targeted players are likely to be drafted, but ADP offers a great look at how the field is valuing each position and player, opening up the opportunity to find value.

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Fantasy Football ADP 2023, Half-Point PPR:

*Underdog Fantasy ADP — Updated 9/1
*Previous ADP — 8/25

Top 10 Fantasy Football ADP Risers Late August:

1. Deon Jackson
2. Marvin Mims
3. Adam Thielen
4. Evan Hull
5. Tyjae Spears
6. Sam Howell
7. Kenny Pickett
8. Jaylen Warren
9. Juwan Johnson
10. Zack Moss

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Top 10 Fantasy Football ADP Fallers Late August:

1. Kyler Murray
2. Zamir White
3. D’Onta Foreman
4. Jonathan Taylor
5. Jerry Jeudy
6. Rondale Moore
7. Greg Dulcich
8. Jameson Williams
9. Michael Gallup
10. Zach Ertz

Undervalued Players in Fantasy Football ADP, 2023:

• Geno Smith (114.6 ADP, QB15)
• Brandin Cooks (84.3 ADP, WR41)
• Juwan Johnson (152.2 ADP, TE16)

The public appears to be sleeping a bit on a Seattle passing attack that finished top 12 in yards and touchdowns with a nearly 60% pass rate last season.

That pass rate was not a fluke. Seattle was 1.5% over their expected pass rate and finished fifth in situation-neutral pass rate.

The Seahawks did add another running back in the second round, but they also spent a first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, suggesting this new emphasis on the passing game is not a passing phase.

Smith finished as the QB9 in per-game scoring last season among quarterbacks who made multiple starts and finished as a QB1 in 10 of his 17 games with rate stats almost exactly the same as his small sample from 2021.

Now he is being drafted as the QB16 despite three of his wideouts landing inside the top 35 of receiver ADP.

Smith may regress back to his early-career form, but his QB16 draft cost will not be that damaging even if he busts.

Cooks is a veteran receiver nearing the age plateau, but few receivers saw their situation improve as much as Cooks did this offseason.

He cratered last year, putting up a 57-699-3 line in 13 games, but he was playing in one of the worst offenses in the league and for a team he no longer wanted.

Now he is entering a Cowboys offense that has over 200 targets to replace and is quarterbacked by Dak Prescott, who still finished ninth in EPA per dropback last season in what was a down year.

There are Mike McCarthy concerns for this offense after he spent the offseason talking about his desire to “run the damn ball.”

Still, this has been a good passing game with Prescott, Dallas has a lot of targets to replace, and Cooks has topped 1,000 yards in all but three seasons in his career.

If he is the No. 2 option in the passing game, it would be a shock if Cooks does not return value at this cost.

Choosing a tight end beyond the top guys is essentially just throwing darts, but Johnson makes a lot of sense as a late tight end flier.

A receiver in college, Johnson finally earned a role in the Saints’ passing game last year, finishing with a 42-508-7 line that was good enough for the TE13 spot.

After signing a two-year, $12 million deal to stay in New Orleans, Johnson will get a quarterback upgrade in the form of Derek Carr, who supported the breakout of fellow receiver turned tight end Darren Waller with the Raiders.

The Saints made an investment in Johnson, still have questions outside of Chris Olave in the receiver corps, and upgraded their quarterback situation.

Like most tight ends, Johnson will likely remain a touchdown-or-bust fantasy option, but there is at least the upside for better.

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Overvalued Players in Fantasy Football ADP, 2023:

• D’Andre Swift (85.1 ADP, RB29)
• Deebo Samuel (34.3 ADP, WR18)

Joining one of the best running games in the league, there is a chance Swift meets and exceeds his RB29 cost, but he is being drafted nearly 30 spots ahead of Rashaad Penny, who the Eagles also added this offseason, and nearly  60 spots ahead of Kenneth Gainwell, who has been getting first-team reps in camp.

Drafting Swift that high could pay off, but that price suggests a level of certainty that simply does not exist in Philly’s backfield without even considering Swift’s injury concerns.

A fair argument for Swift at RB28 is who else is there to take at that point in the draft? The situation is similar with Samuel at WR18, but there are good reasons to believe he is more of a mid-range WR3 than a solid WR2.

Unable to recreate the wild efficiency from 2021, Samuel fell back to the WR25 in per-game scoring last season as his touchdown luck ran out.

Samuel did set career lows in yards per touch (8.8) and yards per route run (1.69), giving him some bounce-back upside from an efficiency standpoint, but his overall fantasy production matched his usage — 4.31 air yards per target and 10 opportunities in goal-to-go situations.

Injuries make it easy to explain away last season, but that might just be who Samuel is as a fantasy player when he is not wildly outpacing his expected touchdown numbers.