The first major domino of the 2025 offseason fell during the Combine with news the 49ers are trading Deebo Samuel to the Commanders.
Things were always expected to move quickly after the 49ers granted Samuel permission to seek a trade in early February, and rumblings of an impending deal picked up over the last week.
Samuel’s trade will affect the fantasy value of several 49ers – changes that could be magnified if Brandon Aiyuk is also moved this offseason – but let’s start with how this deal affects the Commanders.
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Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin 2025 Fantasy Value
The Commanders leaned on Terry McLauin in the passing game last season.
He earned 23.2% of the team’s targets (16th among qualified receivers) and 40.3% of Washington’s air yards (5th).
That second number offers some insight into how McLaurin and Samuel might fit together in Washington.
McLaurin has averaged 12.3 air yards per target thus far in his career including 13.3 last season.
Samuel, on the other hand, has averaged 6.29 air yards per target in his career with a 7.44 average last season.
That area of the field was dominated by a host of different Commanders in 2024.
Zach Ertz: 7.54 AY/T, 91 targets
Olamide Zaccheaus: 6.34 AY/T, 64 targets
Dyami Brown: 7.33 AY/T, 40 targets
Luke McCaffrey: 7.08 AY/T, 24 targets
Jamison Crowder: 8.31 AY/T, 13 targets
That is a combined 232 targets that happened while McLaurin was commanding a solid target share.
Samuel is not going to get all of those, obviously.
Zach Ertz is a free agent, but even if he walks, Washington will have someone out there running routes at tight end.
Samuel has not been used in the slot a ton in his career (24.8% career rate), so there is still room for a player to occupy that spot in the offense.
But the Commanders did utilize that part of the field often last season, which bodes well for the ability of Samuel and McLaurin to co-exist as fantasy options.
There are also some interesting splits for the two against man and zone coverage.
Samuel has been much better against zone throughout his career (2.53 yards per route run against zone, 1.55 against man), and at least some of that is down to target rate.
Samuel has been targeted on 19.8% of his routes against man in his career but 25.2% against zone.
McLaurin does not have as pronounced splits and performed well against zone last season, but he has been targeted on 23.9% of his career routes against man and 21.1% against zone.
McLaurin had a 26.4% team target share against man last season and a 21.9% target share against zone.
The Commanders were only midpack in neutral dropback rate last season, but they were ninth over the second half of the season.
If both guys stay healthy, neither player is likely to threaten the top of the target leaderboard, but there is room here for McLaurin to maintain or perhaps even build a little on his target share from last year with Samuel also getting enough work to be a fantasy starter.
That said, McLaurin lived on inflated touchdown numbers a season ago – he nearly doubled his expected touchdowns based on target location – and now has Samuel on the roster with him.
McLaurin’s current WR14 price in Underdog drafts feels pricey, but it also will likely fall following this trade.
Conversely, Samuel’s is likely to rise now that we have certainty about his 2025 team, and despite everything laid out above about his likely role, Samuel will need to be better than he was in 2024 to return value on that usage.
Samuel saw a marked decrease in his ability to command targets last season.
He had a 19.5% target rate per route in 2024. That number was 24% in his first five seasons.
Samuel was still good after the catch, though, ranking near the top of the league in yards after catch over expected according to Next Gen Stats.
That’s a promising sign given his expected usage, and he is not quite to the usual age cliff for receivers.
There is reason to think last year was more of a blip in terms of earning targets, but it is something to keep in mind.
Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall 2025 Fantasy Value
It is difficult to make definitive statements about the 49ers receiving corps because so much remains undecided.
When will Brandon Aiyuk return from his injury?
What team will he be playing for when that happens?
Either way, it appears likely Aiyuk will miss some time early in the season, opening up the top spots on the depth chart.
Jauan Jennings should be the favorite to serve as the No. 1.
Jennings commanded a 27.8% target share while running a route on 86.5% of 49ers dropbacks after he returned from injury in Week 10.
That target share ranked 10th among qualified receivers over that span, though that usage did not result in massive fantasy numbers.
Jennings was only the WR28 in fantasy points over that span as the 49ers struggled to score points.
San Francisco was 19th in points per drive over the second half of the season, a sharp decline from their juggernaut offenses of the past and even where they were at the start of 2024.
If the 49ers can bounce back and Jennings can maintain that target share, at least early in the season, he should be in good shape, and we have a much larger track record of the 49ers being elite on offense than what we saw late last season.
Jennings also held his own from a target perspective when Aiyuk was healthy last year.
The pair only ran 46 routes together on the field with Samuel on the sidelines, but Jennings had 12 targets to 17 for Aiyuk.
Even when (if) Aiyuk returns, Jennings should maintain a big role in the offense.
Of course, the 49ers did spend a first-round pick on a receiver last year, and Ricky Pearsall was able to establish himself over the final two games in 2024.
In those two games, he had just 2 fewer targets than Jennings and easily out produced him.
Pearsall went for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns in those games, averaging 2.63 yards per route run.
Both Jennings and Pearsall will see their ADPs increase with Samuel now gone, and there will be potential usage questions for both if Aiyuk sticks around and can return healthy.
There are also upside cases for both, however, especially if they remain outside the top 30 receivers in ADP.
As one more note, there is no need to steam George Kittle, who is already going as the TE3 behind Brock Bowers and Trey McBride in early fantasy drafts.
That said, Kittle was targeted on 19% of his routes over the last three seasons with Samuel on the field.
That number jumped to 24.7% with Samuel on the sidelines, and that is with Aiyuk, Jennings, and Christian McCaffrey running routes on most of those plays.
