There were rumors Pete Carroll would reunite with Russell Wilson in the immediate aftermath of Carroll taking the Raiders job, but a different one of his former signal callers will be leading the charge in Las Vegas this season.
Days before the start of the free agency period, the Raiders acquired Geno Smith from the Seahawks in exchange for a 2025 third-round pick.
The deal leaves Sam Howell atop the depth chart in Seattle, but the Seahawks are rumored to be in the mix for Sam Darnold.
Let's examine the fantasy ramifications of this trade for both the Raiders and the Seahawks.
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Geno Smith 2025 Fantasy Outlook
While he struggled with interceptions in 2024 and did not make the playoffs each of his final two years as a starter, Smith had an exceptional four-year run in Seattle in the context of how his career started.
Over the last three seasons, Seattle was 14th in points per drive and ninth in yards per play in the NFL.
Geno Smith Stats, 2021-2024
| Games | Passing Yards | YPA | Comp% | TDs | TD% | INT | INT% | Pressure Rate | Off-Target Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 702 | 7.4 | 68.4% | 5 | 5.3% | 1 | 1.1% | 39.6% | 6.3% |
| 17 | 4282 | 7.5 | 69.8% | 30 | 5.2% | 11 | 1.9% | 34.2% | 6.8% |
| 15 | 3624 | 7.3 | 64.7% | 20 | 4.0% | 9 | 1.8% | 40.8% | 7.6% |
| 17 | 4320 | 7.5 | 70.4% | 21 | 3.6% | 15 | 2.6% | 38.6% | 6.7% |
Geno Smith was extremely accurate over those four years, finishing first among all qualified quarterbacks in off-target throw rate and fourth in completion rate.
The Raiders finished 26th in off-target throw rate in 2024 while Brock Bowers was 29th of 36 qualifying tight ends in inaccurate target rate and Jakobi Meyers was 63rd of 103 qualified receivers in the same metric.
DK Metcalf was 25th and Jaxon Smith–Njigba was 13th in inaccurate throw rate a season ago.
At the very base level, Smith should at worst provide Bowers, Meyers, and the other receiver they are likely to add in free agency or the draft with more accurate throws than they saw in 2024.
That said, some of that accuracy can be explained by target depth.
Over that same four year span, Smith was 34th of 39 qualified quarterbacks in air yards per target and 30th in the rate of his throws that traveled 10 air yards or more.
That said, he was still successful when he threw in that area of the field.
Smith was third among that same group of quarterbacks in off-target rate on throws of 10 air yards or more and 10th in completion rate.
Expanding that to 20 air yards or more, Smith was again third in off-target rate and fourth in completion rate.
That suggests there could be some meat on the bone down the field if the Raiders push Smith to attack those areas and acquire a receiving talent that can work downfield.
The pass rush was a consistent problem for Smith in Seattle.
He was pressured at the ninth highest rate over those four years and the third highest rate last season.
Pressure can be a quarterback stat, but the Seahawks ranked near the bottom of the league in pass block win rate each of the last two seasons.
The Raiders did not fare a ton better than Seattle last year and just released Andre James, so they will need to bolster that front line to keep Smith clean.
If they can do that and add another receiving option, it is fair to expect much better passing results in Las Vegas this season.
That said, that might mean more for the fantasy value of Bowers, Meyers, and whoever they add than it does for Smith.
It has been eight seasons since Chip Kelly last called plays in the NFL, and his offense should look different than what NFL fans remember.
Ohio State was near the bottom of the nation in plays per game and seconds per play under Kelly last season, and that would seemingly fit well with what Carroll traditionally has wanted from his offense.
That could make volume a concern for Smith, and while he did run a little more in 2024 than he did in 2023, he ranked 17th among qualified quarterbacks in rushing fantasy points per game over the last three seasons.
It is tough to live in fantasy as a lower volume thrower who does not stack points with his legs.
If we are right about those expectations, it would mean Smith should fall in the same QB2 bucket he was in last season with weekly upside when the matchup presents itself.
As for Bowers, most of the concern about his fantasy value coming out of his rookie season came down to quarterback play.
That is no longer a concern, and he is a worthy occupant of the TE1 spot in both seasonal leagues and Dynasty formats.
As for Meyers, the story is yet to be written because of the expectation the Raiders will add some receiver help in the offseason.
If they don't, though, he should once again be in a good spot to soak up targets in what could be a much better passing environment per throw even if the volume is not quite there.
Seahawks 2025 Fantasy Outlook
Much like with Meyers, it is impossible to make definitive statements about the Seahawks offense in the wake of this trade.
Tyler Lockett is gone.
Geno Smith now plays for the Raiders.
DK Metcalf has requested a trade.
Given the Seahawks do not pick until No. 18 in the first round, their best-case scenario is likely Sam Darnold, who they are reportedly targeting in the wake of this move.
The way Darnold ended last season lives large in our collective memory, but he performed like a top quarterback for much of the year.
Darnold was especially good using play action in Minnesota, finishing fifth among qualified quarterbacks in yards per attempt and second in touchdown rate.
While new Seahawks OC Klint Kubiak does not come from the same coaching tree as Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell, he comes from a similar system that should fully utilize play action and work into Darnold's strengths in that area.
Of course, Darnold has not signed yet.
Until he does or the Seahawks find someone else, we are in wait and see mode for Seattle's passing attack.
