Christian Kirk appeared to be headed to free agency as a cap casualty, but the Texans swooped in and made an inter-division trade with the Jaguars to add the veteran for a seventh-round pick in the 2026 draft.
This is a solid move for the Texans, who needed a wide receiver.
Tank Dell’s availability is in question for the 2025 season after a brutal knee injury suffered late in the season.
Dell just had a second knee surgery to repair the ACL component of that injury last Wednesday.
Stefon Diggs is a free agent and will come off a torn ACL suffered in the final week of October.
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Christian Kirk Fantasy Outlook
Asking Kirk to be a proxy for what Houston was getting from Diggs before his injury is well within reason.
Kirk is a younger player capable of filling the slot role vacated by Diggs.
Before his injury, Diggs was averaging 5.9 receptions for 62.0 yards per game.
He can take advantage of playing next to a true alpha receiver in Nico Collins and will be attached to viable quarterback play.
It is important to recall that Diggs had some elevation due to the absence of Collins.
He ran 139 routes with Collins off the field last year, drawing a target on 25.2% of his routes with 2.05 yards per route run.
On 131 routes run with Collins on the field, Diggs averaged 1.63 yards per route run with a target on 22.3% of his routes.
Dell has also had wide splits with and without Collins, but the good news for the Texans is that those splits for Diggs with and without Collins do align with Kirk’s recent output and usage rates.
Christian Kirk Advanced Stats
| Year | Age | Tm | Yds/Rt | Tar/Rt | ADOT | YAC/Rec | 1D/Tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ARI | 1.72 | 19.8% | 9.62 | 5.2 | 30.9% |
| 2019 | 23 | ARI | 1.42 | 21.6% | 9.99 | 4.2 | 28.7% |
| 2020 | 24 | ARI | 1.22 | 15.5% | 11.84 | 3.6 | 38.0% |
| 2021 | 25 | ARI | 1.81 | 19.0% | 11.66 | 3.2 | 42.7% |
| 2022 | 26 | JAX | 1.79 | 21.5% | 9.14 | 4.3 | 40.6% |
| 2023 | 27 | JAX | 2.08 | 22.4% | 9.91 | 4.3 | 40.0% |
| 2024 | 28 | JAX | 1.73 | 21.5% | 13.7 | 3.7 | 38.3% |
Kirk also had more downfield ability to cover a portion of Dell’s vacated usage, not only the slot stuff that Diggs leaves behind.
John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson still have meat left on their rookie contracts, but both have been underwhelming assets to this point.
Metchie and Hutchinson have combined 60 receptions in the past two seasons despite the Houston wide receiver room suffering multiple injuries in both seasons.
Houston was going to upgrade the position.
I doubt they are also done in that department, with Kirk potentially a one-year rental for this upcoming season and the lack of proven production this depth chart has accrued to this stage.
He has some potential contingency value since Collins has missed multiple games in the past two seasons.
Kirk himself comes with some bad injury luck.
He has missed time the past two seasons with an abdominal injury and a broken collarbone.
This is a positive move for C.J. Stroud on all fronts.
In his second season, Stroud took a step back across the board, completing 63.2% of his passes (27th) for 7.0 yards per attempt (22nd) and a 3.8% touchdown rate (29th).
He ended the season averaging only 13.0 fantasy points per game (QB28), which was right on par with Kirk Cousins.
One of the exciting aspects for Stroud coming into his second season was that he would be throwing to Collins, Diggs, and Dell.
Well, he only threw 66 total passes last season with all three of those receivers on the field.
He averaged 7.8 yards per attempt on those plays with a 4.5% touchdown rate, which are good numbers.
He also ended the season with fewer pass attempts (182) than in 2023 (190), with Collins and Dell on the field.
Kirk insulates them from having to aggressively play a lackluster free agent market.
This is certainly not a negative for Kirk’s fantasy appeal, but it is more of a situation that allows him to tread water as a fantasy WR3/WR4.
While this is a good “real” football move, the fantasy football community's initial reaction could be a bit overblown if he ends up as a top-48 draft pick.
We have to see where his ADP climbs after opening the offseason around WR60.
Christian Kirk Career Stats
| Year | Age | Tm | Games | Tgt | RecYds | RecTD | PPR PPG | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ARI | 12 | 68 | 590 | 3 | 10.3 | 53 |
| 2019 | 23 | ARI | 13 | 108 | 709 | 3 | 12.9 | 32 |
| 2020 | 24 | ARI | 14 | 79 | 621 | 6 | 10.5 | 55 |
| 2021 | 25 | ARI | 17 | 103 | 982 | 5 | 12.2 | 34 |
| 2022 | 26 | JAX | 17 | 133 | 1108 | 8 | 14.2 | 19 |
| 2023 | 27 | JAX | 12 | 85 | 787 | 3 | 12.5 | 34 |
| 2024 | 28 | JAX | 8 | 47 | 379 | 1 | 8.9 | 60 |
Kirk has finished higher than a WR3 in points per game once over his seven-year career. That was his best season in terms of touchdown production.
It will be hard to oust those scoring targets from Collins, who accounted for 57.9% of the team's end zone targets when he was on the field last year and 37% in 2023.
I am open to Kirk as a potential value, but two fantasy tropes are applicable in this transition.
The first is that while I expect him to be drawing live to match and potentially better his ADP if he settles in that WR3/WR4 range, he is a decent bet to be a “better in best ball” type of asset than a weekly winner.
If he settles in that ADP range, that will put him in a price range where I am targeting more overall upside on the position.
My rosters will have their starting spots filled at that stage of most drafts, so I prefer to target younger players on rookie contracts who can massively outproduce their draft slots as the season ends.
This was another hotbed for that a year ago, with Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr, Ladd McConkey, Jaxon Smith–Njigba, and Jameson Williams all in that area of the draft.
The premise behind those picks is that you already have an initial strength at the position, so you can wait for the progression of those younger assets to spike in season.
This is not a one-year anecdote, either.
I wrote about why targeting younger players at WR3-plus costs has consistently paid dividends.
The short story is that I am not overly scared of Kirk beating me even if he ends up as a value in relation to cost.
The second trope that is true here applies to Dynasty formats.
Any time a player has something positive happen for them, the initial reaction is to “sell that guy immediately.”
That is, unfortunately, true here.
Kirk has had one season so far in which he has been a week winner.
The Texans could add another wideout this offseason, and he could outright be a one-year rental and back on the free agent market heading into his age-30 season.
If a contending team wants to buy Kirk for a third-round rookie pick, that is a flip to make.
One of the things I want to acquire this offseason is second and third-round picks in this rookie draft to take multiple bites at the running back and wide receiver depth available.
While the latter section dampens some initial excitement, everything here is based on cost.
If Kirk ends up closer to WR50 in drafts or you cannot get a draft pick for him, you know you have a viable player who is a proven asset for floor-based production.
