5 Things to Know for Fantasy Football Week 4

As the editor here at Sharp Football, I am blessed to read every word of the best NFL betting and fantasy analysis on the internet every week.

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This great analysis often leads to me deep-diving into topics that could play a big role in the NFL week to come.

With that in mind, here are five interesting fantasy football situations or storylines heading into Week 4 of the NFL season.

1. Stefon Diggs stands out in a great game environment

No one needs a reason to start Stefon Diggs, but he appears to be in a particularly good spot this weekend.

Unsurprisingly given new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s history, the Dolphins have played zone at an above-average rate, ranking 11th at 72.8%.

As Rich Hribar notes in his Worksheet preview of Bills vs. Dolphins:

“Diggs has been targeted on 30.3% of his routes versus zone coverage as opposed to a 20.6% rate against man coverage.”

That said, this is a somewhat new development. Last season, it was Gabe Davis who thrived against zone coverage.

Diggs was still awesome against zone in 2022, recording 2.53 yards per route run and earning a target on 24.1% of his routes.

Davis also excelled, however, averaging 1.8 yards per route run and earning a target on 18.1% of his routes.

Those numbers were 0.78 and 12.4% for Davis against man coverage last year.

Davis will not get as much DFS attention as other pieces in this game, and this looks like a good spot for him based on his numbers from a season ago.

This is not cutting-edge analysis, but the game environment should also be good for both Diggs and Davis to rack up targets.

Like the Dolphins, the Bills rank near the top of the league in zone coverage against passing plays (10th) and blitz at the lowest rate in the league.

Tua Tagovailoa has eaten up every defense so far this season, but he has been particularly good in those two situations.

Even with last week’s demolition of the Broncos removed, Tagovailoa is averaging 10 yards per attempt against zone so far this season and 9.9 yards per attempt when not blitzed.

The Bills adjusted last season, blitzing Tagovailoa on 30.8% of his dropbacks, well above their 2022 baseline.

But that kind of strategy is not in their wheelhouse, and Tua still had 8.8 yards per attempt against Buffalo last season despite some lackluster fantasy performances.

2. DK Metcalf dominates against the blitz

Unlike the Bills, who as mentioned above blitz at the league’s lowest rate, the Giants are not afraid to send extra guys.

They currently rank second with a blitz on 55.8% of the pass plays they have faced so far this season.

The league average is 27.3%.

They have gotten pressure on 45.3% of those blitzes so far this season, which ranks 15th among all teams.

So while they send an extra rusher often, it does not get pressure at more than a league-average rate.

That could be a concern this week against the Seahawks.

As Rich Hribar notes in his Worksheet preview for Giants vs. Seahawks, Geno Smith has been good against the blitz so far this season:

“Regardless of pressure, Smith is sixth in the NFL with a 121.0 rating against the blitz, completing 18-of-26 passes for 222 yards (8.5 Y/A) and two touchdowns.”

When Smith is blitzed, the ball tends to find its way to DK Metcalf.

Since the start of the 2022 season, Metcalf has a 29.3% target share, has averaged 2.02 yards per route run, and has been targeted on 30.1% of his routes on plays the quarterback was blitzed.

Metcalf is also the most common target against man coverage, which the Giants play at the sixth-highest rate in the league.

Against man coverage since the start of the 2022 season, Metcalf has a 33.3% target share, has averaged 2.85 yards per route run, and has been targeted on 32.4% of his routes.

On the other side, this should be a good spot for Darren Waller to get going.

As I wrote about with Amon-Ra St. Brown a couple of weeks ago, the Seahawks are most vulnerable in the middle of the field, something that will only become more true if Tariq Woolen can return this week.

The Seahawks are giving up 168 passing yards per game between the numbers, the third-highest mark in the league.

They are only allowing 7.0 yards per attempt in that area, which is above average, but teams are consistently attacking that part of their defense.

Waller leads the Giants with 14 targets between the numbers, turning those looks into 10 catches and 102 yards.

3. Ja’Marr Chase is set up for another big game

The Bengals fed Ja’Marr Chase on Monday night, and he responded with 141 yards on 12 catches.

He was targeted on 29.4% of his routes against the Rams and earned 32.6% of the team’s targets.

If that happens again this week, Chase should be in for another great game.

As mentioned when discussing Deshaun Watson last week, the Titans pass defense is one to target in fantasy.

They currently rank:

• 29th in yards per attempt allowed (8.4)
• 23rd in pressure rate (31.1%)
• 29th in fantasy points allowed to receivers per game (44.87)

This could also be a great spot to get Chase going down the field.

As Ryan McCrystal noted in his over/under column, teams are throwing deep against the Titans at a league-high rate.

• 10+ yards downfield: 35.5% of attempts, seventh-highest rate
• 20+ yards downfield: 16.8% of attempts, the highest rate

Chase currently sits 50th among 67 qualified receivers in the rate of his targets that have occurred at least 20 yards down the field this season (9.4%).

With it unlikely the Bengals will be able to run against Tennessee’s front, the volume should be there for Chase, and he could get a few more chances down the field as well.

That is a good recipe for DFS.

4. Kenny Pickett has another shot to right the ship

There are warm feelings in Pittsburgh after the Steelers offense looked better in Las Vegas on Sunday night football, but it was still not a perfect day for Kenny Pickett.

Pickett did average 8.4 yards per throw thanks in large part to the 72-yard touchdown to Calvin Austin, but he completed just 57.1% of those passes.

As a team, the Steelers averaged 5.5 yards per play, 15th among all Week 3 offenses, in a great matchup.

It was a good step forward, but some meat could still be on the bone.

The great news is he gets another shot this week against a Texans defense that should play to his strengths.

As Warren Sharp noted in his betting preview for Texans vs. Steelers, the Texans have played zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate so far this season.

For his career, Pickett has been much better against zone than man coverage.

• Against Man: -0.27 EPA/att, 32% success, 40% completion rate, 4.0 YPA, 38% pressure rate
• Against Zone: -0.01 EPA/att, 44% success, 72% completion rate, 6.5 YPA, 30% pressure rate

The Texans rank 20th in yards per attempt allowed and rank 19th in pressure rate. Add in the zone element, and this could be a good spot for Pickett and his pass catchers.

On the other side, C.J. Stroud continues to impress, especially when the Texans keep him clean.

When not facing pressure, Stroud ranks second in EPA per attempt and eighth in yards per attempt.

The Steelers do have a solid pressure rate so far this season (38.1%, 10th), but they have been vulnerable when they do not get home.

If he continues his good performances, Stroud should be able to create plays against this Steelers defense, creating the possibility of a sneaky shootout.

5. George Kittle should smash if Deebo Samuel sits

Deebo Samuel is truly questionable for this week’s game against the Cardinals. While he was seen running on a side field during Friday’s session, he missed nearly if not the entire week of practice with knee and rib injuries.

If he sits, that should be great news for George Kittle’s fantasy prospects, even with Brandon Aiyuk scheduled to make his return.

Since the start of last year, Kittle has a 16.3% target share and has been targeted on 16.5% of his routes when both Samuel and Aiyuk are on the field.

With either Samuel or Aiyuk not on the field, Kittle has a 23.8% target share and has been targeted on 25.4% of his routes.

With just Samuel off the field, those numbers climb to 23.8% and 26%, and he has eight touchdown catches.

We saw that effect last week when Kittle set season highs with 9 targets, 7 catches, and 90 receiving yards.

The Cardinals have not been as bad against tight ends so far this season, but they did allow 6 catches and 76 yards to Darren Waller in Week 2.

Playing in a game DFS players might overlook, Kittle could be a hammer in tournaments this week if Samuel ends up sitting.