NFL Showdown is not about who you play as much as how you play them.
Median projections are a tool in the toolbox, but they are to be trusted far less than they would be on the main slate. This is because of the large ramifications associated with a single player underproducing or overproducing relative to their projection.
The most likely outcome is only one of infinite outcomes.
When ownership dictates that the field has the game figured out, lean into builds around a different scenario.
The term “any given Sunday” should be the mantra for successfully building Showdown lineups.
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The Philadelphia Eagles are heading to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs as 2.5-point underdogs. The total is set at 45.5.
Chiefs-heavy builds will project much better on this slate, but that’s mostly to do with their plethora of low-salary receivers without projectable volume.
11 weeks into the season, Kansas City still doesn’t have a wide receiver rotation they feel comfortable with. While the Chiefs dominate the optimizer, it will be no easy feat to decide which cheap receivers to pair with Mahomes.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Eagles project slightly worse and are mostly top-heavy.
While Noah Gray and Justin Watson will be prevalent in most of the fields’ builds, the Eagles have Jack Stoll in a similar price range to help make Philadelphia lineups work.
Dallas Goedert – Forearm – Out
Philadelphia Eagles Offense
Tier 1 DFS Showdown Plays:
Jalen Hurts $11,000 –
Hurts has accounted for multiple touchdowns in every game since Week 1. He’s also averaging an additional 3.5 points per game as a rusher. While he and Patrick Mahomes project similarly, it is Hurts who has the more reliable path to success. Mahomes lands in more lineups using an optimizer because he has so many cheap receiving options, but it is important to remember that there is a reason they are cheap.
A.J. Brown $10,200 –
Brown is one of the few receivers in the league averaging over a 30% target share. He’s managed over 125 yards in 6 of his 9 starts. Travis Kelce will be featured more often because of stacking with Mahomes, but Brown has the higher ceiling and is hitting it often.