- The majority of the league’s offensive touchdowns are still coming through the air, although that rate has been coming down.
- Since 2010, 77.4% of teams that were above the league average in passing touchdown reliance experienced a decrease in their passing touchdown share the following season.
- The Bengals led the league with 79.6% of their touchdowns coming through the air.
As we approach July and head further downhill towards the 2025 fantasy season, we will extend our top down approach by analyzing team performance and output.
The goal is to have covered all corners of the fantasy Earth by late August, from a team, player, position, and game theory standpoint, to accurately calibrate our draft strategy for the upcoming season.
| 2025 Fantasy Football Odds & Trends |
|---|
| Draft Kit Hub |
| League Trends |
| Quarterback Trends |
| Running Back Trends |
| Wide Receiver Trends |
| Tight End Trends |
| NFL Team Per Drive Trends |
| Touchdown Trends |
| NFL Yardage to Touchdown Trends |
| NFL Red Zone Trends |
| Red Zone points over expected: Quarterbacks (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Running Backs (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Wide Receivers (Coming Soon) |
| Red Zone points over expected: Tight Ends (Coming Soon) |
We are now examining the types of touchdowns the NFL is scoring as a whole, and then we will analyze team performances.
League Offensive Touchdown Splits Since 2010
| Year | PaTD% | RuTD% |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| 2023 | 61.6% | 38.4% |
| 2022 | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| 2021 | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| 2020 | 62.1% | 37.9% |
| 2019 | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| 2018 | 65.9% | 34.1% |
| 2017 | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| 2016 | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| 2015 | 69.8% | 30.2% |
| 2014 | 68.0% | 32.0% |
| 2013 | 66.2% | 33.8% |
| 2012 | 65.3% | 34.7% |
| 2011 | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| 2010 | 65.3% | 34.7% |
The majority of the league’s offensive touchdowns are still coming through the air, although that rate has been coming down.
61.3% of the passing or rushing touchdowns scored last season were through the air, trailing only the 2022 season in the sample above as the lowest rate.
Outside of 2022, you have to go back to 2008 to find a lower rate of the league’s touchdowns coming through the air.
When looking at the whole table, you can spot the trend with the rise in rushing scores, even if we should still expect more touchdowns to come through the air.
I have mentioned this a few times in the past few weeks, but I believe this is an extension of the rise in mobile quarterbacks and their increasing usage rates of running the ball near the end zone.
This will be highlighted further below.
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NFL Teams Facing Passing Touchdown Regression in 2025
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