The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Patriots and Panthers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Carolina | Rank | @ | New England | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | Spread | -5.5 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 24.5 | ||
| 20.7 | 19 | Points/Gm | 20.0 | 21 |
| 17.7 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 22.7 | 18 |
| 64.3 | 10 | Plays/Gm | 64.7 | 9 |
| 59.0 | 9 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 54.3 | 3 |
| 4.3 | 30 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 16 |
| 5.7 | 24 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.8 | 26 |
| 38.34% | 25 | Rush% | 39.18% | 22 |
| 61.66% | 8 | Pass% | 60.82% | 11 |
| 43.50% | 18 | Opp. Rush % | 39.88% | 7 |
| 56.50% | 15 | Opp. Pass % | 60.12% | 26 |
- The Patriots have allowed 14 passing plays of 20 or more yards, the most in the league.
- The Panthers have gained 10 or more yards on a league-low 11.4% of their offensive plays.
- The Patriots have gained 10 or more yards on 21.6% of their offensive plays, fifth in the league.
- Carolina has one running back rush for 10 or more yards, the fewest in the league.
- 32.8% of the runs against the Patriots have failed to gain yardage, the highest rate in the league.
- New England has turned the ball over on 20.7% of their possessions, 30th in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Drake Maye: It has not been clean through a “real football” lens, but Maye has turned in back-to-back QB1 scoring weeks after a letdown in Week 1.
Maye has thrown multiple touchdowns the past two games while rushing for 31 yards (with a touchdown) and 45 yards in those contests.
After a 5.7% scramble rate in Week 1, Maye has scrambled on 11.7% of his dropbacks these past two weeks.
We would love to see the Patriots establish a downfield threat for Maye.
Over these past two games, he has averaged 5.7 air yards per attempt (33rd) with only 20% of his passes traveling 10 or more yards in the air (35th).
When Maye has pushed the ball downfield these past two weeks, he leads the NFL with a 156.3 rating, connecting on 9 of 12 passes for 182 yards and 2 touchdowns.
New England also kept up the increased rate of pre-snap motion.
After a 28.3% motion rate in Week 1, Maye has used motion on 56.7% and 55.3% of his dropbacks the past two weeks.
When using motion this season, Maye has a 117.6 rating (6th), hitting 36 of 48 passes (75%) for 391 yards (8.1 Y/A) and 4 touchdowns.
Without it, Maye has an 87.9 rating (21st), completing 70.7% of his passes for 6.8 Y/A with 1 touchdown.
While Maye has also taken advantage of two of the best matchups the early portion of the season has revealed, he lands in a spot as a firm home favorite with the highest team total of his early career.
While Maye is in the back-end QB1 pool based on those notes, Carolina has not been giving away passing production early this season.
Carolina has allowed the second-fewest passing points (7.9 per game) to open the year, facing Trevor Lawrence (QB24), Kyler Murray (QB23), and Michael Penix (QB31).
If you want to apply a grain of salt to those opponents, I won’t stop you, but they have not given those passers a free pass to points, either.
Even accounting for per-play metrics, only the Chargers have allowed fewer passing points per attempt than the Panthers (0.242).
I definitely do not buy Carolina as a top-five pass defense, but they have allowed only 2 passing touchdowns with 4 interceptions.
The Panthers are last in pressure rate (24.3%) and have the lowest sack rate (1%).
When Maye has been kept clean, he has completed 79% of his passes (7th) for 5 touchdowns and 1 interception.
When pressured, he has completed 52% of his passes (17th) with 0 touchdowns and taken 12 sacks (second to last).
Bryce Young: Carolina did not need to ask much out of Young last week in a blowout win against Atlanta.
Young did have a rushing touchdown, but he still ended as QB25 (11.6 points), completing 16 of 24 passes for 121 yards with no touchdowns.
He has completed 60.5% of his passes (28th) for 5.3 yards per pass attempt (34th).
Young’s scrambling rate (5.6%) is down from last year’s 8.2%.
While Young is QB2, there is matchup appeal for him if you are platooning options in 2QB formats.
The Patriots are 24th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.524).
They have allowed a 74.2% completion rate (30th) for 9.2 Y/A (31st) and a 5.6% touchdown rate (24th).
Running Back
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More Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Seahawks @ Cardinals | Thursday Night Football |
| Vikings vs. Steelers | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Jets @ Dolphins | Monday Night Football |
| Bengals @ Broncos | Monday Night Football |
