Fantasy Football Quarterback Tiers, 2023

One remaining obstacle we face in the fantasy community as content providers and consumers is understanding that rankings, projections, tiers, and average draft positions are all different and serve different purposes.

I wrote a primer highlighting the use of player projections combined with rankings and ADP, but there is so much more on the table.

My season-long rankings and projections focus on the probable outcomes for a player based on top-down production on a per-play basis and projected game script.

Player production is based on that team volume. We can tweak volume and efficiency for a range of outcomes per player, but that is the simplest explanation of how the projection sauce is made.

While those projections give us a range of season-long production and have implications for listing players in a linear format (rankings), even when those full-season numbers are accurate, they fail to capture the weekly impact and the pockets of production that are relevant to our weekly game of fantasy football.

Projecting Joe Mixon for 1,255 yards and nine touchdowns on 270 touches (his 2021 totals) paints a nice picture of his season-long outlook, but any gamer who rostered Mixon will also tell you that in no way did he fulfill those season-long numbers in creating a balanced weekly impact. This happens to all but a handful of players during every NFL season.

That is an anecdotal example to make a larger point, but there is a litany of examples that fits the point I am making.

There are very few players at each position that just smash weekly over the course of the fantasy season, and we are hopeful to be in on the remainder of the players when they strike the hottest.

That is where player tiers come in.

A lot of player tiers are just rankings chopped up into sections.

While the rankings are more focused on a probable tally of season-long output for a week-to-week game, I prefer to structure my tiers based on how similarly players accrue their fantasy points and by the archetypes of players.

By doing this, it allows me to notice actionable gaps in player pricing per tier which in turn allows for arbitrage in fantasy drafts.

It also highlights some longer-odds players who have more potential than originally perceived.

Arbitrage in fantasy football is driven strongest by how production is accrued, and the order of those players (rankings) is driven by the opportunities (on a player and team level) that each player receives.

Our projections are inherently going to be wrong on those projected opportunities often. Team situations are influenced by a plethora of things. The game script, injuries to the player himself, injuries to surrounding teammates, ineffective play, player breakouts, and so on. That is just the game.

Understanding how a player is used allows us to find prospects who could benefit from that variance. If we are wrong on the opportunity projection, then a lower-tiered player could be an arbitrage opportunity.

While there is not a direct overlap to the individual player rankings, the order of these tiers is how I prioritize drafting the positions from an archetypical stance.

While that can be confusing for a player ranked highly on a linear list versus a specific tier he is in, I will do my best to incorporate detailed thoughts regarding draft capital in those events throughout the player breakdowns.

One final bit of housekeeping, I will be updating and adding analysis to these tiers all summer long.

• Running Back Fantasy Football Tiers
• Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Tiers
• Tight End Fantasy Football Tiers

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• Tier 1
• Tier 2
• Tier 3
• Tier 4
• Tier 5
• Tier 6
• Tier 7
• Tier 8

Tier 1 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Jalen Hurts
• Josh Allen
• Patrick Mahomes

Our first tier of quarterbacks is the trio that has the best odds to finish as the QB1 in overall scoring for the season.

Jalen Hurts has raised his completion percentage and yards per pass attempt while simultaneously lowering his interception rate from the previous season each year in the NFL.

Hurts climbed up to 14.9 passing points per game last season (10th) while still popping for 10.3 rushing points per game (second).

With 13 rushing scores, Hurts was the first quarterback in league history to have back-to-back seasons with double-digit rushing touchdowns.

Coming off of the easiest schedule in the NFL last season and the loss of Shane Steichen, I do expect some regression for the Philadelphia offense, but a more challenging outlook will also press the Eagles to be more aggressive for 60 minutes per week in 2023.

What Hurts did as a passer was largely done in just two quarters of football each week.

Philadelphia dropped back on 64.8% of their first-half plays last season (eighth), which signaled that they were going to be an aggressive offense. Hurts led all positions in fantasy scoring (249.2 points) in the first half of games despite missing two full games last season.

In the second half of games, he ranked 26th in scoring output while ranking 45th in fourth-quarter scoring.

In the third quarter, that dropback rate for the Eagles fell to 14th (58.9%) and then down to dead last in the fourth quarter (38.6%) since the Eagles put games away early.

Hurts was eighth in the NFL in first-half pass attempts, 24th in second-half passes, and 32nd in fourth-quarter pass attempts.

Hurts threw just 60 passes in the fourth quarter all last season. For context, that was the same total as Cooper Rush.

The Eagles outscored their opponents by a league-high 121 points in the first half of games in 2022.

As a byproduct, Philadelphia ran just 106 plays all season trailing in the second half of games, the fewest in the NFL.

Just 60 of those came in games in which Hurts played because the Eagles trailed in the second half of just two games with Hurts active.

When you look at last season, Gardner Minshew threw more passes (31) trailing in the second half than Hurts (22).

54 NFL quarterbacks threw more passes than Hurts trailing in the second half last season.

While there will be some regression in the first-half performance for Hurts and this offense, we are going to get more 60-minute games as well. Pair that with how aggressive the Eagles told us they want to be as an offense, and Hurts has a runway to be the highest-scoring player in fantasy this season.

Consider the Eagles schedule this season.

From Week 6 on, they face Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott (twice), Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. They also play the 49ers, Seahawks, and Giants over that span. Teams that have potential to press them.

Look at last season’s opposing quarterback schedule.

The best quarterbacks they faced were Jared Goff (73 total points scored), Aaron Rodgers (73 total points), Dak Prescott (without Hurts, but 74 total points), and Mahomes (73 total points).

Josh Allen finished as the QB3, QB1, and QB2 in points per game over the past three seasons.

I still view Allen as having the best combination of passing and rushing upside in fantasy.

2022 was the third consecutive season in which Allen threw at least 35 passing scores with over 4,000 yards through the air.

From a rushing perspective, Allen added another 762 yards and seven scores via his legs. He has rushed for at least six touchdowns in all five of his years in the league.

Allen played half of the season with a partially torn UCL in his throwing elbow, which did have an impact on his play.

Allen suffered the injury in Week 9 against the Jets. Here was his splits pre and post-injury:

There have been some whispers the Bills are going to pull back on Allen running the football, but that type of commentary is extremely nebulous. Teams often say things like that, but Allen is who he is as a player.

When feet hit the fire, we often see this type of commentary get thrown out of the window. If the Bills want to take away a spade that they have on offense, then shame on them.

There is no fantasy asset at the position as secure as Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes has been a top-six scorer in points per game in all five seasons as a starter.

Even after the trade of Tyreek Hill and working with a rotating motley crew of pass catchers outside of Travis Kelce, Mahomes led the NFL in passing yards (5,250), touchdowns (41), and expected points added per dropback (0.27).

It will be hard for the Kansas City wide receivers to have worse output than last season. They ranked 31st in the NFL in target rate to their wide receivers (48.9%). No wide receiver caught more than four touchdown passes.

Mahomes even added a career-high 3.5 rushing points per game last season. Mahomes has increased his rushing points per game from the previous season in each of the past three seasons.

Over his five seasons as a starter, Mahomes has been a QB1 scorer in 75.3% of games while his lowest-scoring week in 2022 was QB13.

Mahomes scored 129.7 fantasy points inside of the 10-yard line, the second-most for a quarterback ever behind only 2020 Aaron Rodgers (133.9 points).

Mahomes led the NFL with 27 touchdown passes inside of the 10 (the next closest player had 19) and led the league with 17 of those scoring throws coming from inside of the five. For good measure, he also tacked on three rushing scores from inside of the 10.

Patrick Mahomes Career Production Inside of the 10-Yard Line:

If Mahomes throws another 20 touchdowns inside of the 10 this season, he will be the first quarterback to toss 20 or more scores in that area of the field in three consecutive seasons.

We talked about how last season the Chiefs were forced to recalibrate their offense after the trade of Tyreek Hill. That led to Mahomes averaging a career-low 12.2 yards per touchdown pass.

He and the Kansas City offense were able to counter that by leading the NFL with 41 touchdown passes, but we also did highlight several instances where this offense should run into touchdown regression in 2023 based on their 2022 efficiency in terms of red zone output, converting yardage into touchdowns, and the rate of scoring plays that were touchdowns.

Mahomes has been a consistent performer over expectations in the red zone, but this was his highest season over expectations in the red zone as a whole since his rookie season. His career numbers have been +55.5 points scored, +4.9, +13.3, and +9.1 in that area before last season’s +29.2 points scored.

That does not mean we have to run and hide from an elite talent such as Mahomes and that he will not once again be strong in the context of the upcoming 2023 season like he has throughout his career, but as highlighted multiple times throughout that series, we have been here before with the 2018 Chiefs and had some immediate recoil.

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Tier 2 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Lamar Jackson
• Justin Fields

Things start to get interesting at quarterback after the opening tier. QB4 in drafts is going to have a good amount of variance.

While the tier after this one provides more safety through the air, both Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields can offer so much weighted production on the ground that they are drawing better odds at being the overall QB1 if they run into an apex passing ceiling. They also come with high floors if they even land on above-average passing campaigns.

Jackson opened 2022 on fire with 12 total touchdowns over the opening three games. Then the wheels fell off. Jackson had just eight total touchdowns throwing and rushing over his final nine games of the season.

He has missed 11 games over the past two seasons and has failed to recapture the 2019 magic that made him the fantasy MVP that season.

After 11 top-six and nine top-three scoring weeks in 2019, Jackson has combined for 11 top-six and six top-three scoring weeks over the past three seasons.

While the outcomes have been subpar the past two seasons through injuries, performance, and lack of surrounding talent, the Ravens have finally fully invested in Jackson this offseason.

There was posturing on both sides, but the Ravens and Jackson finally agreed on a long-term deal this spring.

For his career with the Ravens, Baltimore has a 48-19 record in games that Jackson has started. Over the past two seasons, the Ravens are 15-9 in his starts as opposed to 3-8 without him.

The entire Baltimore offense the past two seasons has been carried as far as Jackson could lift lackluster surrounding talent. In the 11 games that Jackson has missed the past two seasons, the Ravens have:

• Scored a touchdown on 15-of-112 drives (13.4%), which is dead last in the NFL (with Jackson that rate is 22.1%, which is 14th)
• Converted 34.7% of their third downs, which is 31st in the league (with Jackson that rate is 41.1%, which is 12th)
• Averaged 5.3 yards per passing play, which is 31st in the league (with Jackson it is 6.2 yards, which is 16th)

Also, consider what the Ravens have had on the field for Jackson.

Here are all of the players that have run 300 or more pass routes in the regular season with Jackson on the field as a starter since he entered the league:

• Mark Andrews – 1,410
• Marquise Brown – 1,124
• Willie Snead – 705
• Devin Duvernay – 702
• Miles Boykin – 419
• Nick Boyle – 398
• Patrick Ricard – 376

That’s it. That’s the list. The Minnesota Vikings had five players run 300 or more pass routes in 2022 alone.

With the hire of Todd Monken, Jackson will work with a new offensive coordinator for the first time in his career.

From a personnel stance to go along with Monken, Baltimore is attempting to field a real wide receiving unit this season.

In 2022, Baltimore wideouts collectively were dead last in the NFL in targets (198), 31st in receptions (124), last in receiving yards (1,517), and 29th in touchdowns (seven).

To further highlight how bad the Ravens were down at the position last season, Demarcus Robinson led the position in targets (75), receptions (48), and yards (458), and he just joined a new team last week.

Not only will the team be getting Rashod Bateman back after playing just six games last season, but the team added Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers, and Nelson Agholor.

While there are still question marks on Bateman staying healthy, what Beckham has left in the tank, and what we can expect from a rookie receiver, collectively this unit is the most talented receiver room Jackson has had in his career.

And he still has Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely as viable tight end targets.

Jackson has the best objective layout of his career to turn in another high-scoring season and threaten to be the QB1 in fantasy.

2023 is a huge inflection point season for Justin Fields.

He can cement his market value with a step forward as a passer and compete to be the QB1 as a fantasy option if that happens.

If not, the Bears still have a window in which they do not have a long-term commitment to Fields.

Chicago has done enough this offseason to provide the surrounding pieces around Fields to gain clarity on him moving forward by adding D.J. Moore and Darnell Wright.

Fields was the best rushing quarterback for fantasy last season. He rushed for 1,143 yards in 15 games, pacing all quarterbacks in rushing points per game (10.8).

If the addition of Moore can provide the type of spark that Josh Allen received when the Bills added Stefon Diggs or Jalen Hurts last season got via the addition of A.J. Brown, then Fields can be a fantasy supernova.

To get there, Fields also has a lot to clean up this season and will have no excuses if he fails again as a passer.

He is historically the worst quarterback through two years of their career in taking sacks (something that was also an issue for him in college when pressured). Fields has been sacked on 13.4% of his dropbacks through two seasons, which is the highest rate for a passer over his first two seasons in the league.

Fields has taken a sack on 32.5% of his pressures to start his career. The league average over the past two seasons is 20.0%, so this is not just an offensive line issue.

If you do not think that matters much, consider this. Last season when the Bears did not have a sack on a drive, they were 12th in NFL in points per drive (2.30) and 11th in scoring rate per drive (42.7%). When they had a drive with a sack, they fell to 31st in points per drive (0.50) and 29th in scoring rate per drive (12.0%).

We also have some inaccuracy issues to clear up.

There have been 58 quarterbacks who have thrown 100 or more passes in the past two NFL seasons. Fields ranks 51st in inaccuracy rate per TruMedia among those players. The only passers below him are P.J. Walker, Tim Boyle, Desmond Ridder, Trey Lance, Marcus Mariota, and Zach Wilson.

We are going to need the passing accuracy to rise and fewer sacks to be taken because how Fields accrued his rushing production is not exactly stable, even if he does have a high floor in overall output.

Fields had the most rushing yards ever in a season for a quarterback on runs of 20 or more yards (429), which was more than both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts combined last year.

I am the most hesitant on Fields at his 2023 cost, but the Bears do have our No. 7 easiest passing schedule, and Fields is the archetype of a quarterback that can put together a monster season if everything comes together.

Fields was the QB10 in red zone fantasy points while checking in as the QB13 in expected points scored on opportunities.

Now, you are probably assuming that Fields was here because of his historic season rushing, but believe it or not, Fields actually overachieved near the end zone because of how he maxed out the red zone passing attempts he had.

Fields led all quarterbacks with a touchdown pass on 37.5% (12-of-32) of his red zone pass attempts and did so with only four of those touchdown passes coming from inside of the 10-yard line, the same number as Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush, and Teddy Bridgewater. Fields threw the same number of passes inside of the 10-yard line (11) as Desmond Ridder.

Fields had a touchdown rate of 36.4% on throws 10-19 yards away from the paint, which led the league. The league average was 14.7%. His averaged length of red zone touchdown pass was 11.9 yards, the highest in the league.

Fields had 70% (7-of-10) of his red zone pass attempts that went into the end zone be caught for scores, which led the NFL. The league rate was 35.3%.

While we do not have many passing metrics in which Fields was above the fold, we should expect there to be some regression in his efficiency in this area, needing more passing volume near the actual end zone in 2023.

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Tier 3 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Justin Herbert
• Joe Burrow
• Trevor Lawrence

This next subset of quarterbacks is more passing driven for their fantasy production. They are not complete zeros in the rushing department, but for any of these quarterbacks to compete for the highest-scoring quarterback over the full season, they are going to have to run ultra-hot and post a pantheon passing season.

This trio is unlikely to make a number of my rosters in 1QB leagues simply because of the cost and their true odds of pacing the position in scoring, but you are getting strong odds that each of these passers is a rock-solid QB1 for the season.

Everything that could go wrong in 2022 for Justin Herbert did go wrong.

He averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, 9.9 yards per completion, and took a sack on 5.2% of his dropbacks. All the worst rates of his early career.

After touchdown rates of 5.2% and 5.7% over his first two seasons, Herbert posted a 3.6% touchdown rate this past season.

From a rushing perspective, Herbert rushed the fewest times per game over his first three years in the league (3.2 attempts per game). He averaged 2.7 yards per rush after 4.3 yards and 4.8 yards per run in his first two seasons.

Herbert suffered a chest fracture in September that he played through and then a torn labrum in January.

Outside of his injuries, the Chargers had all of Rashawn Slater, Corey Linsley, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams on the field together last season for just 20 total plays.

Allen missed seven full regular season games and had two other games in which he only played 33% and 32% of the snaps due to ongoing hamstring issues. Williams also missed four full games last season.

With their primary wideouts missing so much time, Austin Ekeler led the team in targets (127) followed by Josh Palmer with 107. Palmer ran the most pass routes (618) followed by DeAndre Carter (496). As a byproduct, Herbert averaged just 6.4 air yards per pass attempt, ahead of only Daniel Jones and Matt Ryan last season.

But for the small sample size with this offense having healthy weaponry, Herbert was still excellent. He took just 175 dropbacks last season with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the field. On those plays, he posted:

• 0.17 expected points added per dropback (would have ranked third over the full season)
• 50.8% success rate (would have ranked second)
• 7.9 yards per pass attempt (would have ranked third)
• 77.1% completion rate (would have led the league)
• 106.4 rating (would have ranked second)

The Chargers swapped Joe Lombardi for Kellen Moore and, to give Herbert an added weapon and more depth behind Allen and Williams, used their first-round pick on Quentin Johnston.

Joe Burrow was the QB4 in points per game last season (21.9) and showcased a higher floor than during his breakout the year prior.

He had seven top-six scoring weeks in 2022 after just three in 2021.

Working with attachment to the best trio of wideouts in the league (including attachment to a top-five fantasy pick overall in consensus ADP), Burrow avoided taking sacks as the season went on while the Bengals added another offensive line upgrade in Orlando Brown this offseason.

As mentioned with Fields, sack avoidance is significant, and it has been for the Bengals just as well. Over the past two seasons, when Burrow has not been sacked on a drive, the Bengals are third in the league in points per drive (2.78) and scoring rate per drive (48.5%) as opposed to 14th in points per drive (1.04) and scoring rate per drive (22.8%) when Burrow has been sacked.

Through eight weeks, the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence were struggling, with many questioning him living up to his hype entering the league.

Jacksonville had a 2-6 record at the time with Lawrence completing 62.5% of his passes (27th) for 6.6 yards per pass attempt (23rd). Lawrence’s 84.8 rating was 22nd over that span, sandwiched between Kyler Murray and Matt Ryan.

Lawrence had 10 passing touchdowns and six interceptions over his opening eight games.

Any questions were premature as then Lawrence tapped into the upside that made him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Over the final 11 games of the season, the Jaguars sported an 8-3 record, rallied to win the AFC South, and even won a playoff game.

During that span, Lawrence completed 67.7% of his passes (seventh) for 7.1 Y/A (17th) with 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions. His 97.5 rating was seventh in the league over that span while ranking fifth among all quarterbacks in expected points added per dropback (0.14).

Lawrence had eight QB1 scoring weeks over his final 12 regular season starts.

Considered in the same breath as Burrow and Herbert as a prospect (if not regarded higher), Lawrence is set up to compete with that tier of younger passers in fantasy this season.

Jacksonville has the layout of young pass catchers and plays in a division that could facilitate big fantasy scores.

2022 also gave us an indication that Lawrence is a talent elevator with all of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram having the best seasons of their careers all at once with the common denominator being Lawrence. Now, Jacksonville gets to add Calvin Ridley to this offense.

I do have some initial concerns about the state of the Jacksonville offensive line, but Lawrence’s sturdy second half of the season paired with his surrounding pass-catching corps being one of the deepest in the league provides added security.

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Tier 4 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Deshaun Watson
• Anthony Richardson
• Dak Prescott
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Geno Smith
• Daniel Jones
• Russell Wilson

By and large, the opening three tiers will be how the position plays out to open fantasy drafts this summer, even if there are some musical chairs with the order of when those passers come off of the board.

Things start to get interesting here.

This tier of quarterbacks represents the upside options. They each have a red flag or two and take some projection, but all of these passers have the potential to turn in front-end fantasy seasons if a few elements come together.

There is no way to sugarcoat anything, Deshaun Watson was downright rough when he was finally able to play last season.

Over his six starts to close the season, Watson completed a career-low 58.2% of his passes. He also would have had career-low marks in yards per pass attempt (6.5), yards per completion (11.1), and touchdown rate (4.1%) while his 2.9% interception rate was his highest rate since his rookie season.

Over that span, Watson ranked 24th in the league in expected points added per play (-0.12) among quarterbacks, right below Desmond Ridder, Baker Mayfield, Mac Jones, and Tyler Huntley. Watson was a touch better in success rate, checking in at 19th (39.4%).

The question that comes from that performance is how much do we stock that five-game sample versus his early career?

You have to go back to Daunte Culpepper to find a quarterback who was as good as Watson was to open his career and then just never regained that production.

Watson had missed two full seasons of playing time, logged two of those starts in bad weather, and the Cleveland offensive line was missing starters by that point of the season.

While those can end up looking like excuses if Watson does not regain his early-career output, Watson has a full offseason to recalibrate himself moving forward in this offense.

It is a step of blind faith that Watson can recapture his previous fantasy success, but he is the archetype of quarterback we still look to invest in for fantasy when the price dips. Watson still rushed for 29.2 yards per game, eighth among passers with multiple starts.

Cleveland has obvious monetary commitments to make this work, but they have made personal additions this offseason to improve the weaponry in the passing game. The team traded for Elijah Moore, drafted Cedric Tillman, and added veteran Marquise Goodwin to give this offense much more depth than a year ago when it was only Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones at wide receiver.

The Browns are still a heavy running team, but they have slowly started to move towards incorporating more wideouts on the field under Kevin Stefanski.

Cleveland used 11 personnel on 70.9% of their passing plays in 2022. That was 20th in the NFL but well up from the 53.4% (29th) and 45.4% (31st) rates the team deployed in Stefanski’s first two seasons.

That 11 personnel rate climbed up to 76.8% of the passing plays with Watson under center compared to a 68.0% rate with Jacoby Brissett.

When talking about fantasy football, Anthony Richardson’s trump cards can create a high floor while his ceiling can rival the front end of the position.

Richardson made major noise at the Combine when he checked in at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds. Not only was he built as a create-a-player in Madden, but Richardson also checked out of Indianapolis with the highest athletic score I have ever registered in my prospect model at the position.

At that size, Richardson ran a 4.43 forty, logging the second-best speed score (accounting for player size) behind Robert Griffin. For good measure, Richardson then tacked on the highest vertical (40.5 inches) and broad jumps (11-foot-9) for any quarterback ever at the Combine.

Cam Newton, Robert Griffin, and Justin Herbert are the only rookie passers to clear 300 fantasy points since the merger in 1970. Richardson has the rushing potential to match the output we saw from Newton and Griffin as rookies.

If Richardson is declared the Week 1 starter, then we should be drafting him as a fringe QB1 with an upside for a higher outcome.

But throwing the football is where the projection comes fully in for Richardson. In terms of all Combine invites since 2000, here are Richardson’s career core passing metrics:

• 7.9 yards per pass attempt (50th percentile)
• 1.6 TD:INT ratio (13th percentile)
• 54.7% completion rate (third percentile)

Richardson’s passing inefficiency raises many of the same questions surrounding Malik Willis from a year ago. The difference, of course, is that Richardson remained in the SEC through college while having a significant spade in terms of size and physical traits.

Per Sports Info Solutions, Richardson was pressured on a class-high 37.1% of his dropbacks but was sacked on a class-low 10.1% of those pressures.

If you are thinking that Richardson invited much of that pressure due to his playing style, Pro Football Focus credited Richardson for being responsible for just 19.4% of his pressures, which was a lower rate than both Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud and the sixth-lowest rate in this class.

Richardson will need to work on his turnovers but was tremendous at avoiding negative plays on sacks.

We have already mentioned the importance of sacks for players such as Justin Fields and Joe Burrow, but check out the full numbers for teams that avoid taking sacks and their drive performance compared to when sacks are taken:

Have been making rounds stating how undersold it is that Anthony Richardson was elite at avoiding sacks and that alone gives his O a higher floor than assumed despite his issues.

Here are the past 5 years of drive performance when a team is sacked vs not. Just a massive impact. pic.twitter.com/4e7XkqIcMb

— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) April 20, 2023

Whereas both Stroud and Young will have to retain a level of high passing efficiency to compete for QB1 output in fantasy, Richardson has much more leeway in that department.

If the passing efficiency does come along, then his ceiling breaks through the roof.

Now that he was selected as pick No. 4 overall, we should anticipate Richardson playing more than expected and, he should compete to start Week 1 with only Gardner Minshew in his way.

Minshew’s teams have a 2-10 record with him as a starter over the past three seasons including a 1-3 record with the Eagles.

His 44.5% success rate ranks 34th among passers over that span who have 100 or more pass attempts.

Paired with new coach Shane Steichen and his familiarity with maxing out Jalen Hurts with the Eagles, Richardson should have a high floor once he is on the field with the upside to be greater for fantasy should his passing production come along.

Coming off the worst fantasy season of his career, Dak Prescott was the QB16 in points per game (16.6).

Prescott’s 7.3 yards per pass attempt and 238.3 passing yards per game were his lowest in a season since 2017.

Turning 30 this July, Prescott has had his rushing output fall off the map, which adds more dependence on having his passing efficiency rebound.

The good news is that the Cowboys have added Brandin Cooks as a direct target upgrade over the loss of Dalton Schultz to aid a potential bounceback.

After throwing 27 touchdowns over his first two years in the league, Tua Tagovailoa tossed 25 scores last season as he led the NFL with a 6.3% touchdown rate.

After passing for 6.3 and 6.5 yards per pass attempt over his first two seasons, Tagovailoa led the league with 8.9 yards per attempt in 2022.

From an expected points-added stance, only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen provided more EPA per dropback than Tagovailoa (0.18) while he closed the season fifth in success rate (47.4%) as a passer.

For fantasy, the question is how reliable can Tua’s efficiency be when tasked to punch up with the consistency of other front-end fantasy scorers?

Tagovailoa got fat over three weeks versus the Lions (QB1), Bears (QB4), and Browns (QB3) last season but had just one other top-10 scoring week over his other 10 starts.

This year, Miami opens the year with games against the Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, and Bills. All teams that will test his ceiling ability.

Geno Smith was one of the best stories of the 2022 season.

At age 32, Smith led the NFL with a 69.8% completion rate, throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 passing touchdowns.

Over his previous eight seasons in the league, he had just 34 touchdown passes.

Only Patrick Mahomes matched Smith in games last season with multiple passing touchdowns (12).

There was some regression along the way as Seattle went 3-6 over their final nine games after opening the season at 6-3.

Over the opening nine games of the season, Smith completed 73.1% of his passes for 7.8 yards per pass attempt. He had a 48.0% success rate as a passer (seventh) while averaging 0.05 expected points per dropback (ninth).

Over the final nine games, Smith completed 67.0% of his passes for 7.2 Y/A. He had a 44.9% success rate (11th) while averaging -0.05 EPA per dropback (21st).

Despite some in-season regression, Smith was a big winner this offseason and appears to be one of the better values among fantasy quarterbacks early this summer.

He inked a three-year extension, and Seattle did not draft a rookie quarterback to push him. They also added Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round as another pass-catching weapon.

Seattle used 11 personnel on just 63.0% of their passing plays in 2022, which was 26th in the league. Expect that rate to rise in 2023, especially as the season progresses.

Daniel Jones enjoyed a breakout in his first season under Brian Daboll, finishing the season as the QB10 in points per game (18.1).

Under Daboll, Jones was finally unleashed as a runner. He rushed for a career-high 44.3 yards per game (fifth) and seven touchdowns (tied for third).

Jones had just two QB1 scoring weeks over his opening nine games in 2022 but then posted five over his final seven games of the season.

We are still looking for another step under Daboll as a passer to max out more of a fantasy ceiling since Jones was 30th in passing points per game (11.1), but his floor has risen tremendously as a QB2 than can flirt with QB1 scoring weeks.

Jones has improved at turning the ball over less frequently and last season had a career-low 1.1% interception rate, but the Giants also just did not ask him to do anything that would allow him to be aggressive with the football.

Jones averaged 6.5 air yards per throw, which was 53rd in the NFL among all quarterbacks to throw 100 or more passes last season.  Just 27.3% of his passes were 10 or more yards downfield, which was 50th among the same group while only Matt Ryan (5.2%) had a lower rate of throws traveling 20 or more air yards last season than the 6.1% rate for Jones.

The Giants also moved Jones around to compensate for the offensive line and lack of full-field weaponry. Only Patrick Mahomes (192) had more dropbacks outside of the pocket than Jones (172).

With all of the changes made by the Giants in adding Darren Waller and Jalin Hyatt as potential field stretchers, it will be intriguing to watch how Brian Daboll calibrates what Jones does in his second season together.

After scoring 72.0 total fantasy points in the red zone over the 2020-2021 seasons, Jones was eighth among all quarterbacks in red zone points last year.

Daboll finally used Jones as a runner near the end zone, something we had been clamoring for and something Daboll did with Josh Allen in Buffalo.

Jones rushed 13 times inside of the 10-yard line after nine total attempts inside of the 10 over his first three seasons in the league. Seven of those attempts came inside of the five-yard line after Jones had just three total rushing attempts inside of the five over his first three seasons.

Not only did Jones get a boost through rushing output near the end zone, but he also ran above expectation on the limited pass attempts he had in that area of the field, which played into how the Giants had such a lofty touchdown conversion rate in the red zone last season.

Jones only threw 11 total passes into the end zone last season. That was 31st in the league while only 2.3% of his overall pass attempts were thrown into the end zone, the lowest rate in the NFL. But seven of those 11 attempts were touchdowns. The league rate of conversion on those throws was 37.1%.

Jones only threw 20 passes inside of the 10-yard line last season, but 55.0% went for touchdowns. The league base rate was 35.7%.

While Jones does have the rushing ability to buy himself him outs, I do have major concerns about his schedule this season.

At his cost, you are drafting him to be your quarterback and not a platoon player.

Jones had seven QB1 scoring weeks last season. Those came against the Jaguars, Colts, Lions, Bears, Vikings, Commanders, and Eagles. The Eagles were the only team in that group that were higher than 17th in passing points allowed per attempt while the Commanders (26th), Colts (30th), Bears (31st), and Lions (32nd were at the bottom of the league).

Jones played just four games against top-10 defenses for fantasy versus the pass and in those game shad one week higher than QB17, which was the Philadelphia game in which was the QB11 with 8.6 rushing points.

This season, the Giants have our hardest projected passing schedule.

The Giants play the Cowboys twice (Week 1 and Week 10), 49ers, (Week 3), Dolphins (Week 5), Bills (Week 6), and Jets (Week 8) over their opening 10 games of the season. Those are going to be tough weeks to bank on playing him in 1QB formats based on passing upside while needing a static rushing floor.

There is not much good to say about Russell Wilson’s first year in Denver.

He had career lows in completion rate (60.5%) and touchdown rate (3.3%) while his 7.3 yards per pass attempt were the second-lowest rate of his career.

Wilson ranked ahead of only Davis Mills, Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz, Kenny Pickett, and Zach Wilson in success rate as a passer.

Denver scored on just 14.6% of their drives, ahead of only the Jets, Texans, and Colts.

For fantasy, he was the QB20 in points per game (15.0).

In his first year outside of Seattle, Wilson posted a career-low 15.6% touchdown rate, nearly half of his career 30.5% rate entering last season.

Inside the 10-yard line, Wilson had just a 21.7% touchdown rate, matching that of Stafford and ahead of only Kenny Pickett. It was the first time that Wilson had a touchdown rate below 40% inside of the 10 since 2016 as he had a career rate of 41.7% entering the season.

Where Wilson has to do a better job moving forward under Sean Payton is adapting his game to how the current NFL is played.

NFL teams are playing more zone coverage, blitzing less, and adapting to prevent big plays through the air.

Wilson has always been a big-game hunter at quarterback.

Even though Nathaniel Hackett takes the brunt of what went wrong in Denver last season, Wilson and his offenses always end up looking the same. No matter how many times we have heard the “let him cook” narrative, Wilson himself needs to calibrate his game to the way teams are playing defensively.

Wilson threw the ball deep on 16.6% of his passes, second in the NFL. He was 27th in throw rate between the numbers (40.5%) and 26th in short throw rate (44.3%).

Wilson just has to do a better job of making easier plays on early downs. There is hope that Sean Payton can be the one to facilitate that change while Denver still has a deep stable of talented pass catchers for Wilson to work with and the team has made strides in adding to the offensive line this offseason.

As bad as things were, Wilson did still provide some hope to end the season, closing the season with three top-five scoring weeks over his final four starts, so we know the ceiling is still here even when things are not perfectly clean.

And they were not clean those weeks.

There is a floating narrative that Wilson was a different quarterback after Hackett left the team, but while he was excellent for fantasy those two weeks, he still left meat on the bone as a passer. In Week 17 Wilson only threw for 5.8 yards per attempt, but added 14.7 rushing points. In the Week 18 performance he did average 11.8 Y/A with three touchdowns, but only completed 54.2% of his passes, his lowest rate over his final seven games.

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Tier 5 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Jared Goff
• Kirk Cousins
• Aaron Rodgers
• Matthew Stafford
• Derek Carr

There is nothing wrong with the quarterbacks here at this stage of position. This group just happens to be where we hit our pocket passers that have to live either through elite passing efficiency or post league-leading counting stats to punch up from a fantasy perspective due to their lack of rushing output.

All of the quarterbacks here are viable streamers, sturdy QB2 options, and could even flirt with back-end QB1 seasons, but due to the nature of how the position is scored, their weekly ceilings are not as high as the previous tiers.

After three straight down seasons, Jared Goff bounced back with a solid season.

He threw 29 touchdown passes (the second most of his career) while setting a career-low in interception rate (1.2%).

His 7.6 yards per pass attempt were his most in a season since 2018. For fantasy, Goff closed as the QB15 in points per game (16.7). He particularly came on strong to close the season, finishing as a top-six scorer in four of his final six starts of the season.

Goff also opens the season with a strong early-season draw versus the Chiefs, Seahawks 9who he scored 33 points against last season), and Falcons.

Minnesota won the most games (13) of any season since they acquired Kirk Cousins in 2018.

Ironically, Cousins had one of his worst seasons from an efficiency stance.

Cousins had his lowest completion rate (65.9%) and touchdown rate (4.5%) since joining the Vikings while his 7.1 yards per pass attempt matched his low in Minnesota.

Even if a down season compared to prior years through an efficiency lens, Cousins still ended the season right above the fold for leaguewide standards. He was 14th in expected points added per dropback (0.03) and 14th in success rate (45.4%).

For fantasy, we know exactly what we have with Cousins.

He has finished QB16, QB19, QB12, QB12, and QB14 in points per game over his five seasons in Minnesota.

Some slight caution on only being the QB14 in points per game last season since he also had a career-high 698 dropbacks to go along with that finish, but Cousins still has an attachment to the WR1 in fantasy in Justin Jefferson while we are hoping that the addition of Jordan Addison is an immediate upgrade over what Minnesota got out of Adam Thielen in 2022.

After back-to-back MVP campaigns, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game took a major step backward last season after trading Davante Adams.

Rodgers was the QB28 in points per game (14.1) and averaged 13.4 passing points per game, the fewest of his career.

Rodgers undoubtedly took a step back last year, but Green Bay’s struggles were not all on him.

His on-target throw percentage was higher than it was in 2021, and PFF calculated his 2022 adjusted completion rate as roughly the same as it was the year before.

That is not a surprise considering Rodgers tied for the league “lead” with 40 dropped passes, easily the highest number of his career.

This situation has an almost identical overlap to what we saw with Tom Brady three years ago. Like Brady leaving New England, Rodgers is coming off his worst season and outright appeared to be uninterested at times with the offense.

Now, he gets paired with last season’s Rookie of the Year, Breece Hall, and a bunch of functional ancillary pieces attached to one of the league’s best defenses. Rodgers no longer has the rushing juice to knock on the door of the opening tier, but if closed his career out with lower-end QB1 seasons we should not be surprised.

We should not expect a hot start, though.

The front of the New York schedule is rough.

The Jets open the season with the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, Broncos, and Eagles all prior to their Week 7 bye.

Matthew Stafford started the season with issues surrounding the elbow on his throwing arm and then only lasted nine games into the season due to a spinal contusion.

Before being shut down, Stafford was having arguably the worst season of his career:

• The Rams had a 3-6 record while Stafford had just 10 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions.
• His 3.3% touchdown rate was tracking to be his lowest since 2012.
• His 6.9 yards per pass attempt was his lowest rate since 2018.
• His 10.1 yards per completion was his lowest since 2010.
• On top of all of that, he was also sacked on 8.7% of his dropbacks, the highest rate of his career.

That regression pendulum moved swiftly as Stafford had a 17.5% red zone touchdown rate. That rate was not only 31st in the NFL but the lowest of Stafford’s entire career. His career rate prior was 24.7%.

Inside the 10-yard line. Stafford posted a 21.7% touchdown rate (32nd) compared to a 39.1% career rate.

Stafford turned 35 this February, and Sean McVay has already stated that he will have “no limitations” coming into this offseason. Despite that, there is not much to be overly excited about given the current state of the Rams organization.

Having Cooper Kupp and McVay still in place does give a healthy Stafford more runway to be a better player than what we saw in 2022, but he has a hard road pushing out of the QB2 zone for fantasy purposes this summer.

Derek Carr is coming off a disappointing season with the Raiders.

His 60.8% completion rate was his lowest since his rookie season while he posted a career-high 2.8% interception rate.

His 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 234.8 passing yards per game were his lowest in a season since 2017.

Through nine NFL seasons, Carr has finished higher than QB19 in points per game just once.

While that leaves Carr as QB2 for fantasy, New Orleans fielded one of the most efficient receiving groups in the league last season. As a team, the Saints were third in the NFL in yards per route run (1.45), seventh in yards per catch (11.7), and 11th in the rate of targets to result in a first down or touchdown (36.7%).

While Carr is coming off a disappointing season that forced his exit from Las Vegas, asking Carr to be as efficient as a 35-year-old Andy Dalton is not exactly asking for a ton, either. The Saints also have our No. 2 easiest passing schedule this season.

Tier 6 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Kyler Murray

We will see fluctuation with Murray’s ADP this offseason based on a more accurate timeline for his return over the summer.

For now, this is an area where I would be comfortable entertaining him in 2QB formats (or best ball leagues drafting three quarterbacks) until we get more clarity.

But in 1QB leagues, there is no reason at all to sink into drafting him at this stage.

Murray had surgery on his ACL and torn meniscus on January 27th, meaning we should not anticipate him to be ready for the start of the season. There are even whispers that he may not play until closer to midseason.

2023 appears to be a tough season for Arizona on paper, and they will need more out of Murray moving forward on his contract than what they received in 2022 when he was healthy.

Out of 33 qualified passers for league passer rating, Murray was 17th in EPA per dropback (0.02) and 23rd in success rate (42.7%). He posted early-career lows in yards per pass attempt (6.1), yards per completion (9.1 yards), and touchdown rate (3.6%).

Murray particularly struggled to push the ball down the field last season, an area where he had previously had success.

On throws 10 yards or further downfield, Murray completed just 42.1% of his passes (28th). His 40.4% success rate on those passes was ahead of only Carson Wentz, Kenny Pickett, and Zach Wilson.

On throws 20 or more yards downfield, Murray completed just 24.5% of his passes, ahead of only Jimmy Garoppolo.

Murray was just 1-of-14 (7.1%) on throws 30 or more yards downfield, the lowest rate in the league.

That 2022 performance was far and away off from his output in 2021. In 2021, he completed 53.1% of his passes 10-plus yards downfield (sixth), 47.3% of his passes on throws 20 or more yards downfield (third), and 42.9% of his throws 30-plus yards downfield (fifth).

For as bad as things were for Murray in 2022 as a passer, he was still the QB9 in points per game (18.2) and was a QB1 in seven of his 10 full games played.

Factoring in replacement value at the position, if Murray even was a baseline QB1, a half  of season paired with that replacement value is still someone pushing the front-half of the position in overall scoring.

The rub is that we cannot count on any type of rushing floor coming off his injury.

Last season he overcame his play and environment in part to 29.8% of his points coming via rushing, something we have to heavily question remaining intact even when he does return to the field this season.

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Tier 7 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks:

• Kenny Pickett
• Bryce Young
• C.J. Stroud
• Desmond Ridder
• Jordan Love
• Mac Jones
• Sam Howell
• Brock Purdy

While this group of younger, unproven quarterbacks is buried down the line behind the other tiers, there is still plenty of upside for fantasy down here at the back end of the position.

I am certain that a few players here will exceed expectations. While there is not a ton of potential for these passers to pop in 1QB formats, you will want to take some swings in this area of the position in 2QB formats in hopes of running into value.

The Steelers used the 20th pick in last year’s draft in hopes that Kenny Pickett would provide a smooth transition for the Ben Roethlisberger era.

Pittsburgh went 7-5 in Pickett’s 12 starts as a rookie, closing the season on a positive note by winning five of their final six games.

While they won games to end the year, Pickett himself still left plenty on the table for growth moving forward. He was 23rd out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in expected points per dropback (-0.02) and 24th in success rate (42.5%).

Pickett completed 63.0% of his passes (23rd) for 6.2 yards per pass attempt, which was 32nd out of those 33 passers. None of those quarterbacks had a lower touchdown rate than Pickett’s 1.8% on the season.

Where Pickett has to improve is working the ball down the field.

On throws 10 yards or further downfield, Pickett completed just 38.3% of his passes (31st), ahead of only Carson Wentz and Zach Wilson. He was 31st in EPA per dropback on those attempts (0.11) and ahead of only Wilson in success rate (37.2%) on those throws.

Last season, the Steelers scored just two touchdowns from outside of the red zone, the fewest in the NFL. Only two teams since 2000 have scored fewer in a season.

Pittsburgh averaged 6.8 yards on their touchdowns in 2022. No team over the past 30 years has averaged fewer.

On that alone, the Steelers are a good bet to have regression to mean, which has value for us given the prices of the players in this offense.

There is nowhere to go but up for Pickett in the touchdown department. When comparing the surrounding talent available in 2023 for Pickett compared to other younger options down here, there is more appeal in Pickett having viability in a QB2 platoon and being a usable QB2 on his own.

Bryce Young is a decorated quarterback from one of the largest programs in the country.

He won the Heisman Trophy in 2021 and then followed that up last season as the only quarterback in Alabama history to throw for more than 3,000 yards in back-to-back seasons.

From a career production stance, Young ranks in the 98th percentile in career passing production in my prospect model.

Unlike C.J. Stroud, Young was at his best outside of the play structure. He is one of the best prospects in terms of moving behind the line of scrimmage and that shows up objectively. Outside of the pocket in 2022, Young had a class-high 14.9% touchdown rate while throwing for 7.7 yards per pass attempt (second).

His 7.8 yards per pass attempt under pressure in 2022 were also second in this class. Young is almost inviting pressure due to his playstyle. Per Pro Football Focus, 32.4% of the pressures Young had this season were credited to himself, the highest rate of any quarterback in this class.

Young can and will move around to avoid that pressure, scrambling for 592 yards the past two seasons.

At 5-foot-10 and 204 pounds at the combine, does Young use his playstyle as a way to compensate for his lack of size?

If Young did not have the production, I believe we could raise those questions to a higher degree.

In the pocket on throws over the middle of the field over his career, Young has completed 72.1% of his passes for 10.5 yards per pass attempt.

Young may not be built in the laboratory, but he has done nothing but produce at every level thus far while his career metrics throwing the football are objectively better than both Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson, two passers with similar measured physical stature.

Carolina has gone through quarterback hell the past two seasons, so a major swing on a premier prospect was finally warranted.

Over the past two seasons, Carolina quarterbacks collectively were 31st in the NFL in completion rate (58.2%), 30th in yards per pass attempt (6.5), and dead last in touchdown passes (30) and quarterback rating (73.6).

For fantasy, rookie quarterbacks have been a mixed bag with relatively lower odds to hit as week winners right away. Cam Newton, Robert Griffin, and Justin Herbert are the only rookie passers to clear 300 fantasy points since the merger in 1970.

While Young is mobile, he is not at the level of runners of Newton or Griffin.

Can he be the type of passer that Herbert was as a rookie?

The way the Panthers are currently constructed, that will be a lot to ask since Carolina is lacking playmakers at wide receiver, has a strong offensive line, and has a viable young defense.

I would anticipate the Panthers to be a relatively low-volume passing game in neutral game scripts this season, which places more emphasis on Young being efficient out of the box to make a fantasy impact.

His mobility should lead to some spike weeks, but Young will be in a deeper bucket of streamers in 1QB formats for 2023 and best served in QB2 platoons in SuperFlex formats.

Even for Ohio State standards, the amount of passing production from C.J. Stroud accrued over the past two seasons was lofty. Starting 25 games the past two seasons, Stroud threw 85 passing touchdown passes to just 12 interceptions.

Comparing Stroud to all quarterback prospects to be invited to the combine since 2000 puts him among the elite company at his position:

• 9.8 career yards per pass attempt (98th percentile)
• 7.1:1 TD: INT ratio (97th percentile)
• 69.3% completion rate (96th percentile)

Stroud thrived in the play action-heavy approach that the Buckeyes incorporated. With the use of play action in 2022, Stroud averaged 12.4 adjusted net passing yards per attempt with a 139.8 rating, the highest rate in this draft class.

Stroud also led this class with a 9.1% touchdown rate under pressure.

When he was not pressured, Stroud led the class with an 11.0% touchdown rate while throwing for 10.2 yards per pass attempt (second to Hendon Hooker).

In the pocket, he led the class with 10.0 yards per pass attempt while no quarterback in this draft class had a higher rating this past season (129.6) on throws 10 yards or further downfield than Stroud.

On throws 10 yards or further downfield outside of the numbers, Stroud led this class with an on-target rate of 65.2%.

Where Stroud takes some heat is playing out of the play structure, but he posted a 72.1% on-target rate on throws outside of the pocket (fourth in this class) while averaging 6.9 yards per pass attempt (third).

When we last saw Stroud play against Georgia in the playoffs, he completed 5-of-9 passes for 75 yards and two touchdowns outside of the pocket. In that game against the No. 5 defense in the country, Stroud completed 23-of-34 passes (67.6%) for 348 yards and four touchdowns.

We also saw Ohio State use him in the run game in November when they played Northwestern in heavy winds. I do believe we will see Stroud run more in the NFL (and have more designed runs than Bryce Young), he just did not have to run much due to the infrastructure of the Ohio State offense and the surrounding talent.

He scrambled just 34 times in the past two seasons for 189 yards. Stroud has the size and athleticism to create with his legs — he scrambled six times for 66 yards in that game against Georgia.

Joining the Texans, Stroud does not have a ton to work with to start his career.

Houston currently has a wide receiver room led by Robert Woods, Nico Collins, John Metchie, Tank Dell, and Xavier Hutchinson to squeeze production out of. Houston does have a baseline tight end in Dalton Schultz, but Stroud is going to have to do some elevation for the surrounding pass catchers out of the box.

Like Young, Stroud is in a similar bucket as a platoon QB2 in SuperFlex formats and streaming out of the blocks in 1QB formats.

The Falcons have told us that they are going to give Desmond Ridder a shot this season to prove that he can be their starting quarterback.

As a third-round pick (74th overall) last season, the Falcons can cash in on significant contractual leverage if Ridder does prove himself to be that option moving forward.

The Falcons went 2-2 in Ridder’s four starts as a rookie. Over that span, Ridder was 17th in expected points added per dropback (-0.08) and 20th in success rate (38.6%) throwing the football. Atlanta made sure to ease him into things. Ridder used play action on a league-high 41.7% of his pass attempts over that span while he was under center for just 26.1% of his dropbacks (23rd).

We only got to see Ridder make four starts to close out last season, finishing as the QB27, QB25, QB29, and QB10 in those games.

Ridder only attempted 28.8 passes per game in those weeks and Atlanta has done nothing this offseason to make us believe that they are going to open this offense up. Atlanta threw the ball -13.0% below expectation on all downs (31st in the league) with a rate of -18.0% on 1st and 10 situations (32nd).

Remaining a ball control offense, Ridder will have to be a hyper-efficient passer and run more than he showed last season to be a weekly starter in 2QB formats.

We will finally see what we have here in Jordan Love after he was blocked by Aaron Rodgers.

Love has thrown just 83 passes in the NFL. He at least looked the part much better last season when he had clean-up duties compared to 2021.

The Packers were not a fantasy-friendly offense last season due to running one of the slowest paces in the league. Even with Rodgers under center, the Packers were 18th in pass rate over expectations (-3.0%) and that rate was 23rd on first downs (-6.0%).

Their strength through their backfield and defense may also make Green Bay double down on a ball-control offensive style with Rodgers moving on to New York.

If looking for positives, Love and the Packers have our No. 1 easiest projected passing schedule. Love also does come with some athleticism, rushing for 403 yards in 33 career starts in college.

If Sam Howell were guaranteed to start the entire 2023 season, I would be more bullish on him, but I am interested in him in 2QB formats.

I had him as the QB2 in the 2022 Draft, and Washington has plenty of pass catchers in place to offer upside.

Howell made just one start last season in Week 18, finishing as the QB7 (18.3 fantasy points). He is going to push the ball downfield and offers some mobility. In that game, he rushed five times for 35 yards and a touchdown.

As a prospect, Howell was the youngest quarterback of the 2022 class, turning in a productive three seasons at North Carolina in which he threw for 9.2 yards per pass attempt with 92 touchdowns to 23 interceptions.

For all prospects since 2000, Howell ranks in the 93rd percentile in career yards per attempt and in the 88th percentile in TD-to-INT rate.

While those marks are strong, he is not squeaky clean as he ranks in the 65th percentile in career completion rate, closing his final season out in the 41st percentile.

There is no quarterback battle in San Francisco with Brock Purdy’s recovery ready to play to open the season.

During his five starts to close the regular season, Purdy averaged 18.2 fantasy points per game. He was the QB7 in overall scoring over that span.

Now, that small sample was inflated by a massive 8.8% touchdown rate. There is no way that is remotely sustainable. For context, Patrick Mahomes led the NFL with a 6.3% touchdown rate over the full season.

We have seen this system coax efficiency out of several passers above their perceived talent level, but we also do not have a large sample of Purdy having to punch up when he started.

It was not until the postseason that Purdy faced one elite pass-rushing defense last season. Before facing Dallas in the playoffs, just one of Purdy’s six starts came against a defense that was higher than 15th in pressure rate while three of those six starts came against teams 20th or lower in pressuring the opposing passer.

That is relevant because when Purdy was pressured as a rookie, we saw a different outcome.

Out of 47 passers to throw 100 or more passes last season, Purdy was ahead of only four in accuracy rate when pressured while seeing dramatic drop-offs across the board.

It probably was not a coincidence that Purdy looked like a completely different quarterback against the one defense that he faced that could rush the passer. It is a bummer that we did not get to see him face the Eagles the following week at full strength.

But Purdy’s performance when tasked to punch up was similar to the issues that San Francisco ran into big picture with Jimmy Garoppolo.

This is an offensive system that can decimate weaker opponents with baseline quarterback play, but when forced to get out of structure quarterback play against front-end defenses, does going from Garoppolo to Purdy end up being a lateral move in the end?

They have proven that you can compete for championships with that caliber of play in this system, but can you get over the hump of cashing one in when you have to match elite quarterback performances on the other side?

This is what forced their hand in drafting Trey Lance in the first place.

We are only working with a small sample in both directions, but there is at least some concern with a passer having a small sample size of success dictated by throwing from only clean pockets.

This system has made players like Nick Mullens, Brian Hoyer, and C.J. Beathard look better than their actual talent level for short spurts before things caught up to them.

The good news is that this offense is littered with surrounding talent regardless of whoever wins and keeps the job.

Mac Jones has opened the first two years of his career as the QB29 and QB33 in points per game.

Jones took a full step backward in 2022.

He ended the season 29th out of 33 qualifying passers in expected points added per dropback (-0.09) and 29th in success rate (37.5%). After a 67.6% completion rate, 4.2% touchdown rate, and 7.3 yards per pass attempt during his rookie season, Jones completed 65.2% of his passes with a 3.2% touchdown rate and 6.8 Y/A.

To give Jones some benefit of the doubt, he missed three starts with an ankle injury, the Patriots once again lacked firepower among their pass catchers, and most importantly of all, the team entered last season not only without an offensive coordinator but let the offense run through Matt Patricia and Joe Judge.

While that is a good amount of excuse-making for Jones in 2022 and he ultimately needs to play better, he now will be onto his third offensive coordinator in three seasons with New England bringing back Bill O’Brien.

There have been reports that New England was shopping Jones this offseason. 2023 will be a major season in finding out what we have here in Jones before they have the decision of picking up his fifth-year option entering the 2024 season.

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Tier 8 Fantasy Football QBs:

• Jimmy Garoppolo
• Ryan Tannehill
• Baker Mayfield
• Trey Lance
• Will Levis
• Gardner Minshew
• Colt McCoy
• Clayton Tune
• Jacoby Brissett
• Kyle Trask
• Andy Dalton
• Sam Darnold

Our final tier of quarterbacks is filled with options that we are expecting to make starts or are drawing live to make starts in 2023. While all could start games this season, everyone here comes with fragility in making a full season’s worth of starts.

Jimmy Garoppolo is the best bet to make here in terms of getting a full season.

Jimmy G is reuniting with Josh McDaniels, who was the offensive coordinator for the Patriots for Garoppolo’s first three years in the league.

Garoppolo is the poster child for quarterback wins (40-17 in his career as a starter) and the number one quarterback that gets pushback when it comes to spreadsheet analysis for quarterback efficiency numbers.

For fantasy purposes, we do not need to fight those battles. Garoppolo has never been higher than QB18 in points per game and has been a QB1 scorer in just 24% of his career starts.

Ryan Tannehill will turn 35 this July and only started 12 games last season due to ankle injuries at different points of the season. In the final season of his contract and with Tennessee potentially not being good enough to remain in the playoff race, we should see the Titans give Will Levis a look during the season. Tannehill was 19th in expected points added per dropback (0.02) and 20th in success rate (43.6%) as a passer.

Given where the Titans appear to be as a franchise, what we saw from Malik Willis last season, and trading up in the front of the second round to select Levis, I would expect that Levis gets a call to start some games in 2023 so that Tennessee can access that they have moving forward.

Levis has several passing concerns paired with what is arguably the worst pass-catching group in the league, but he does offer athleticism. The number of sacks that he took dragged his 2022 rushing output into the abyss, but he did scramble 62 times for 338 yards in the past two seasons.

In an attempt to bridge the gap over a full tear down of this veteran roster, Tampa Bay brought in Baker Mayfield on a one-year deal to compete with Kyle Trask for the starting job in 2023.

Mayfield’s deal is for $4 million guaranteed with up to another $4.5 million in incentives.

The former No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 draft has done nothing but step backward after his initial success as a rookie.

In 2022 with the Panthers and Rams, Mayfield was 31st among 33 qualifying passers in expected points added per dropback (-0.16), 30th in success rate (35.6%), and 29th in yards per pass attempt (6.5).

If looking for a silver lining, at least Mayfield will be throwing to multiple viable wide receivers when all that he had in 2022 was D.J. Moore for his stint with the Panthers before taking over a Los Angeles offense down Cooper Kupp.

The Bucs selected Trask in the second round of the 2021 draft. While he has been buried behind Brady, it was extremely odd that the organization let Blaine Gabbert in the game before him in Week 18 last season when there was a clear opportunity to finally give him some real action. Trask has thrown just nine passes in the NFL.

We still have no clue what we have in Trey Lance as he has thrown 420 total passes since graduating high school. His lone full game in 2021 was played in a monsoon before making it 16 snaps into Week 2.

Sam Darnold  has a larger sample of subpar quarterback play than good over his five years in the NFL, but he will still be just 26 years old at the start of the season, has pedigree, and has never worked with an offensive coach at the level of Shanahan. What Geno Smith did last season is not going to become the norm for career turnarounds, but Darnold still has positives in his corner.

If you recall, Smith played well in his short sample filling in for Russell Wilson in 2021. Well, Darnold did the same last season when he played.

Reclaiming the starting job in Weeks 12-18 last season, Darnold was fifth in the NFL in fantasy points per dropback (0.58) and second in yards per pass attempt (8.2).

Colt McCoy is the favorite to start for Arizona initially while waiting for Kyler Murray to return to the field.

McCoy has made six starts for Arizona over the past two seasons, with the team posting a 3-3- record. There have been 58 passers to attempt 100 or more passes in the past two seasons and McCoy’s 5.7 air yards per attempt rank dead last among that group. His 6.6 yards per attempt ranks 41st while his 9.3 yards per completion ranks 53rd.

Although McCoy could open as the favorite to start the season, Arizona should take the opportunity they have to see what they have in Clayton Tune.

Tune is a fifth-year senior with 1,497 career pass attempts. He had modest production, exiting college with a 68th percentile TD:INT ratio (4.0:1) paired with a 76th percentile completion rate (67.0%) in his final season.

Per SiS, Tune had the highest on-target rate (78.1%) in this draft class with the highest on-target rate (79.5%) in the pocket. Only C.J. Stroud had a higher on-target rate than Tune’s 62.4% on throws 10 yards or further downfield and outside of the numbers.

Tune was also a strong athlete at the Combine, logging a 90th-percentile athletic score. Not only did Tune throw for 4,074 yards this past season, but he added 544 rushing yards, which was fourth in this draft class.

Gardner Minshew is at least drawing live to open as the Colts’ starter in 2023.

If he does, then that at least gives him some late-round appeal at the position in 2QB leagues, especially for those who get frozen out at the position and are grasping on anyone making starts. Minshew will not have the luxury of working with the talent that the Eagles had on the field, but he is familiar with the system and has an average weekly finish as QB18 over his 24 career starts.