- Over our 173-week sample, just four QB1 overall scorers threw fewer than two touchdown passes while none of them had zero passing touchdowns.
- Efficiency-based metrics make up five of the bottom six metrics when it comes to stability.
- Passing touchdown rate is the one efficiency-based metric that matters significantly because that is tied to the influence of touchdowns overall.
We are pushing into August and further downhill towards the 2024 fantasy season.
With most fantasy drafts approaching these final weeks before the season, we have one last series to run this week before laying out the positional draft plans next week.
This week, we will dive into the stats that matter the most for weekly fantasy output and which have the largest rollover year over year.
Quarterback Fantasy Related Articles:
- Quarterback Tiers
- Quarterback Rankings
- Quarterback Trends
- Red Zone Points vs Expectation: Quarterback
- What We Can Learn From ADP: Quarterback
Highest Correlation to Weekly Fantasy Points Scored For Quarterbacks
| CATEGORY | CORRELATION |
|---|---|
| Total TD | 0.8108 |
| PaTD | 0.6858 |
| PaTD% | 0.6523 |
| PaYds | 0.6363 |
| Completions | 0.4783 |
| PaAtt | 0.3865 |
| Y/A | 0.3071 |
| Comp% | 0.2417 |
| RuAtt | 0.1441 |
| RuYds | 0.1379 |
| RuTD | 0.1178 |
We are looking at weekly scoring for quarterbacks over the past 10 years in our top-down sample.
When we are talking about the final line for fantasy output for passers, on a weekly level, it comes down to the impact of touchdown production firsthand (spoiler alert, this will be a common theme all week).
Total touchdowns (passing and rushing scores combined) have by far the highest correlation to total fantasy points, which of course makes a ton of inherent sense.
If you have a lot of touchdowns, you are going to score points.
It is as simple as that.
Chasing touchdowns overall is a tricky thing to do, which is why we see so many different quarterbacks post viable starting weeks in fantasy compared to the other positions.
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Over the timeframe of this sample, the top 12 weekly scorers at quarterback averaged 2.4 passing touchdowns per game while the top six weekly scorers averaged 2.9 passing scores.
The top scorer overall in all of the weeks in the sample has averaged 3.6 passing touchdowns per game.
Over this entire 173-week sample, just four of those QB1 overall scorers threw fewer than two touchdown passes while none of them had zero passing touchdowns.
You just are not going to pace the position in scoring unless you throw at least multiple touchdown passes that given week.
While touchdowns themselves are harder to predict, we can use all of this information to our benefit to make more educated decisions on a weekly level when it comes to setting lineups and playing DFS.
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