The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card matchup between the Rams and Lions.

Find a breakdown of every Wild Card NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

LA RamsRank@DetroitRank
3.5 Spread-3.5
24.0 Implied Total27.5
22.219Points All./Gm23.223
63.415Opp. Plays/Gm61.06
5.67Off. Yards/Play5.93
5.319Def. Yards/Play5.526
40.17%8Opp. Rush %39.34%7
59.83%25Opp. Pass %60.66%26

Against the Spread

  • Lions: 12-5
  • Rams: 10-6-1
  • Lions ATS at Home: 5-3
  • Rams ATS Away: 5-3-1
  • Lions ATS as Favorite: 10-4
  • Rams ATS as Underdog: 4-3-1

Game Overview

The Sunday night game has something for just about everyone.

We have a dash of narrative with Matthew Stafford returning to Detroit and Jared Goff facing the team that moved on from him for actual stakes.

Bake in Ben Johnson working under Sean McVay and Brad Holmes and his attachment to the Rams and there is a cocktail brewed as strong as any #RevengeGame lover could look for.

We also have an underdog story for those who just outright root for the downtrodden.

This is the first playoff game in Detroit since the 1993 season.

The Lions have not won a playoff game since the 1991 season. That is not only the longest drought without a playoff win in the NFL but all of the four major sports.

On the fantasy side, this game also has the highest game total (51.5 points) of the opening weekend of the postseason.

The Lions entered this season with tangible expectations, and they lived up to them.

Detroit went 12-5, their most wins in a season since that 1991 season.

We talk about the Cowboys and their home splits often, but the Lions led the NFL with a touchdown on 35.2% of their possessions at home this season.

Detroit averaged 6.2 yards per play at home (fourth).

While the Lions matched the lofty expectations placed on them this offseason, the Rams massively outkicked theirs.

The Rams won 10 games this season while their projected win total sat at 6.5 in most offseason books.

Los Angeles was 3-6 heading into their Week 10 bye coming off getting smoked in Dallas and then having an anemic showing in Green Bay without Stafford.

They then came out of their bye to win seven of their final eight games, with their only loss being an overtime defeat in Baltimore.

Exiting their bye, the Rams were fourth in the NFL in yards per play on offense (5.9) and sixth in points per drive (2.41).

A huge component of their success was winning on early downs compared to early in the season.

Over their final eight games, just 41.8% of the Los Angeles set of downs reached third down, the third-lowest rate in the league behind the 49ers and Ravens.

Heading into their bye, that rate was 51.2%, 24th in the NFL.

The Rams went from averaging 5.3 yards per play on early downs (15th) up to 5.9 yards per play (fifth) pre and post-bye.

Getting their offense healthy was the catalyst for that jump.

On 386 snaps this season with all of Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua on the field, the Rams averaged 6.8 yards per play.

For some context, the 49ers with all of Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle on the field averaged 7.3 yards per play.


To continue reading this article

and gain access to The Worksheet and Warren Sharp's postseason betting recommendations, click below to purchase our NFL Postseason Package.

Already a Subscriber?Log In

More Wild Card Weekend fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: