The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Wild Card matchup between the Bills and Steelers.

Find a breakdown of every Wild Card NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

PittsburghRank@BuffaloRank
10.0 Spread-10.0
12.75 Implied Total22.75
17.928Points/Gm26.56
19.16Points All./Gm18.34
60.526Plays/Gm65.65
63.214Opp. Plays/Gm59.73
522Off. Yards/Play5.75
5.423Def. Yards/Play5.111
47.33%5Rush%45.92%6
52.67%28Pass%54.08%27
42.27%15Opp. Rush %40.30%9
57.73%18Opp. Pass %59.70%24

Against the Spread

  • Bills: 7-10
  • Steelers: 10-7
  • Bills ATS at Home: 4-4
  • Steelers ATS Away: 5-3
  • Bills ATS as Favorite: 6-8
  • Steelers ATS as Underdog: 6-4

Game Overview

Buffalo won their final five games of the season to run down another AFC East title and the No. 2 seed in the playoffs.

The Buffalo offense was largely the same as ever.

They closed the year fifth in the NFL in points per drive (2.38) and fifth in touchdown rate per drive (28.2%).

Where Buffalo made their final push was on defense.

After allowing 37 points to the Eagles in Week 12 before their bye, Buffalo came out and allowed 22 points or fewer in their final five games.

The Bills allowed 4.9 yards per play (ninth), 1.51 points per drive (eighth), and a touchdown on 15.7% of opponent drives (third) over that span.

Buffalo led the league with a +30 sack differential over their opponents, with a +22 sack margin in home games.

Buffalo went 5-1 against 2023 playoff teams with their lone loss to the Eagles.

Since the NFL expanded the playoffs, this is the third time that Buffalo is the No. 2 seed and hosting the No. 7 seed.

The Bills won each of those games but did allow the only two covers by No. 7 seeds, winning each game by 3 points despite being favored by 7 and 13.5 points in those games.

Pittsburgh once again could not be killed off this season.

After losing back-to-back home games to New England and Arizona and then being dusted in Indianapolis Weeks 14-16, the season appeared to be all but over, but a three-game winning streak and some help propelled them into the postseason.

Pittsburgh led for just 25.9% of their snaps this season, 25th in the league and the lowest rate of any team in the postseason.

They averaged 5.0 yards per play on offense (22nd), 1.48 points per drive (28th), and scored a touchdown on 14.9% of their drives (28th).

All of those rate stats rose the final three weeks under Mason Rudolph, but they also faced two of the worst defenses to close the season in Cincinnati and Seattle and played a Baltimore team operating at half-mast in the season finale.

While Rudolph played the best of any Pittsburgh quarterback this season, this will be their first test in actually punching up with him under center.

This is another Wild Card game that is expected to have inclement weather.

Early reports are this game will be played in the wind and snow.

The game opened with a 43.0-point game total and then plummeted down to 35.5 points.

If that holds throughout the week up until kickoff with the Bills still as 10-point favorites, Pittsburgh will have the lowest implied team total of any playoff team since the NFL expanded to 32 teams back in 2002.

Quarterback

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