The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Chiefs and Ravens.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Baltimore | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
| 25.5 | Implied Total | 23.0 | ||
| 37.0 | 1 | Points/Gm | 20.0 | 21 |
| 32.0 | 31 | Points All./Gm | 18.7 | 9 |
| 52.3 | 30 | Plays/Gm | 60.7 | 20 |
| 72.0 | 32 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 60.3 | 14 |
| 6.3 | 2 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.2 | 19 |
| 5.8 | 25 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 13 |
| 43.95% | 15 | Rush% | 39.01% | 23 |
| 56.05% | 18 | Pass% | 60.99% | 10 |
| 42.13% | 13 | Opp. Rush % | 47.51% | 26 |
| 57.87% | 20 | Opp. Pass % | 52.49% | 7 |
- This is the first time that Patrick Mahomes has been an underdog in back-to-back home games.
- The Ravens are 1-5 against the Chiefs with Lamar Jackson.
- The Ravens are 20-4 under Jackson following a loss, the best record in the NFL following a loss since he entered the league.
- The Chiefs have scored on 48.1% of their drives, fifth in the league.
- The Chiefs have scored a touchdown on 22.2% of their drives, 17th in the league.
- Baltimore has scored on 54.5% of their drives, third in the league.
- The Ravens have scored a touchdown on 39.4% of their drives, second in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: Jackson has picked up this season where he left off a year ago.
He has been the best fantasy football quarterback in the league since Baltimore added Todd Monken.
Jackson has opened the year with scoring weeks as QB4, QB3, and QB3.
He has multiple passing touchdowns in all three games.
Jackson is coming off a game in which he only rushed 13 yards, took a career-high 7 sacks, and completed a season-low 65.5% of his passes, and he still scored 26.3 fantasy points.
Jackson is a front-end QB1, but he has not been at his best in this rivalry as a passer.
Jackson is no stranger to Steve Spagnuolo.
He has only completed 57.2% of his passes for 6.5 yards per pass attempt against Spagnuolo defenses over his career.
Jackson has not thrown multiple touchdown passes against the Chiefs since 2018.
In this matchup last year in Week 1, Jackson completed 63.4% of his passes (his sixth-lowest rate last season) for 6.7 Y/A (third lowest) and 1 touchdown.
He still managed to reach 25.1 fantasy points by rushing 16 times for 122 yards, both season highs a year ago on the ground for Jackson.
Jackson has used his legs heavily in this matchup.
He has rushed for 79.8 yards per game in those six meetings, with 67, 46, 83, 107, 54, and 122 yards in those contests.
Patrick Mahomes: It has been an uphill battle for Mahomes and this passing game to open 2025.
Missing multiple core pieces of this passing game, Mahomes has thrown for 6.6 yards per attempt or fewer in all three games.
He has completed 59% of his passes (28th) and leads the NFL with a 21% inaccurate throw rate.
The Chiefs have stuck with their offseason plan, which revolves around throwing the ball downfield.
Mahomes has averaged 8.6 air yards per attempt (8th) and has a deep throw rate of 14.3% (7th).
That is his deepest depth of throw since 2019 and his highest rate of throws 20 or more yards since 2018.
The rub is that he has only completed 4 of 15 (26.7%) of those deep shots, ranking 22nd in the league.
For the first two weeks this season, Mahomes was getting by for fantasy through scrambling.
We questioned if he could keep that up, and on Sunday night, he only ran for 2 yards.
As a result of not having that early-season rushing crutch, the floor for Mahomes revealed itself.
He was QB18 (13.2 points).
Mahomes is QB26 in passing points per attempt (0.350) and QB22 in passing points per game (12.3).
Without that rushing output, he is a clear QB2 in this version of the Kansas City offense.
He does have that scrambling ability he showcased in Week 1 and Week 2, but it is not consistent to the degree of Jackson’s rushing ability.
Even factoring that in, Mahomes is a volatile fantasy starter in 1QB leagues.
There are a few pros here still if you are throwing Mahomes out there because you don't want to pivot or use the roster space on another quarterback.
The first is that despite their struggles, the Chiefs will continue to run this offense through Mahomes.
Kansas City has a league-high 68.9% dropback rate in neutral game situations.
The Chiefs have thrown the ball 8% more than expected.
Another factor at play is that the Baltimore defense has been inconsistent to start the year.
Outside of facing Joe Flacco in Week 2, the Ravens allowed Josh Allen to complete 71.7% of his passes for 8.6 yards per pass attempt and Jared Goff to complete 71.4% of his passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt.
The Ravens have had multiple early-season injuries on defense.
Jaire Alexander has not played since Week 1.
Nnamdi Madubuike and Kyle Van Noy missed Monday night.
We do not know if any of those three will be available this week.
The Ravens had a 28.3% pressure rate without Madubuike and Van Noy, which would be 27th in the NFL.
Running Back
To continue reading this article
and gain access to The Worksheet as well as all of Rich's regular fantasy content, click below to learn more about our Fantasy Package.
Learn More
More Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Seahawks @ Cardinals | Thursday Night Football |
| Vikings vs. Steelers | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Jets @ Dolphins | Monday Night Football |
| Bengals @ Broncos | Monday Night Football |
