Continuing the same approach we took during the regular season; I am using this space to highlight my favorite discounted options in DFS.
We are throwing out the arbitrary pricing thresholds to diagnose our defined “value” since the slates are so short, but we still primarily focus on the options that are outside of the top tier plays. So you will not find Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, or Stefon Diggs here.
There will also be some contrarian plays. Players that necessarily do not have a great objective matchup or layout since we will have to take some swings here.
I do not have enough space to talk about every player in my complete player pool this weekend, so make sure you check out the Wild Card Round Worksheet to see my full thoughts on every player this week. Also make sure to cross-reference those thoughts with weekly rankings in the Sharp Football rankings hub.
Philip Rivers ($6,900/$5,400)
The early game on Saturday has a 51.5 point total, much higher than the other two games. As 6.5-point underdogs against the league’s hottest offense, the Colts are going to have to score points and project to be put in a game script to put the ball in the air.
Rivers is a bit on the contrarian side since he hit 20 fantasy points just three times on the season, but the Colts also were an underdog just once on the season and trailed for just 35.7% of their snaps this season, which was the seventh-lowest rate. With the afternoon and late games potentially being slugfests, Rivers has a path to be a top-two scorer at his position for this slate.
Cam Akers ($6,100/$5,100)
Even playing through a high ankle sprain, Akers returned right back to dominating the Rams backfield, playing 65.8% of the snaps and accruing 25 of the 29 backfield touches for 86 yards. Over his past four games played, Akers has 94 touches while all other Rams backs have totaled 19.
Darrell Henderson is still out with his own high-ankle sprain, so nothing should change this weekend.
Seattle allowed 3.93 YPC to back in the regular season (10th) and 11.4 rushing points per game (10th) while allowing the Rams backfield to total 122 yards and three rushing touchdowns on 26 touches in Week 10 and 97 yards on 20 touches in Week 16 when Akers was absent.
J.D. McKissic ($4,800 DraftKings)
Tampa Bay allowed a league-low 8.3 rushing points per game and 3.2 YPC to opposing backs.
Washington faced five other teams that ranked in the top-10 in rushing points allowed to backs (LAR, BAL, SF, PIT, and SEA) with their backs rushing 91 times for 293 yards (3.2 YPC) with three rushing touchdowns.
While Washington struggled to run the football against those tougher run-stopping opponents, they targeted their running backs 26.4% of the time in those games. McKissic accounted for 40 of those 55 running back targets, catching 34 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown while having at least six receptions in all of those games but one.
Tampa Bay is excellent versus the run, but did allow 10.9 receiving points per game to opposing backs (28th) and a league-high 6.0 receptions per game to backs.
Nyheim Hines ($4,700 DraftKings)
Hines versus McKissic will be quite the battle at their price range. Even with Jonathan Taylor’s ascension, Hines has sustained value in PPR formats as he is 11th among all running backs in routes per team dropback (45.8%), reaching double-digit PPR points in seven of his past 10 games. We have not seen the Colts trail outright by a lot often this season, but if the game hits the projected script, then we could see him on the field more late In the game. Hines is second on the team in target share (14.3%) while trailing.
Antonio Brown ($6,500/$6,100)
With Mike Evans forced from the game Sunday, Brown received a season-high 34.2% of the team’s looks, catching 11-of-14 targets for 138 yards and two touchdowns. Brown has now reached the end zone in each of his past three games. Brown has hit 70 yards in just his two games (both versus Atlanta), but if Evans is limited in any capacity, the addition of Brown is magnified.
Washington is overall excellent versus wideouts, ranking third in points per target (1.61), fourth in yards per target (7.4), and third in touchdown rate allowed (3.3%) to receivers. But when they have gotten beat, it has been on the outside and downfield. Only six wideouts posted 20-plus PPR points against Washington this season with those being Marvin Jones, Amari Cooper, Brandon Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Curtis Samuel. The only slot option to have success versus them was Tyler Boyd (9-85-0) with just two of their 10 touchdowns allowed to opposing wideouts coming out of the slot, which could make Brown and the outside wideouts for the Bucs better swings than Chris Godwin.
John Brown ($5,700/$4,700)
After sitting out since Week 10, Brown returned to the lineup in Week 17 to play 30 snaps (47%), catching all four of his targets for 72 yards and a touchdown, his first score since Week 2. Over his past three appearances, Brown has turned in lines of 8-99-0, 6-72-0, and 4-72-1. Brown has only played more than half of the offensive snaps in seven games this season, receiving 18.5% of the team targets those weeks. The Colts are allowing 8.9 yards per target to opposing wideouts (26th) and 1.87 points per target to the position (23rd) while the status of Cole Beasley is still up in the air for Saturday.
Zach Pascal ($5,300/$4,700)
Pascal has not had more than six targets in a game since Week 6, but has had a recent spike in usage, receiving 17.6% of the team targets over the final three games of the regular season (10-184-3) after having fewer than 10% of the team targets in the four games prior. Pascal’s season-highs for a game are five catches and 79 yards, but he runs 74.9% of his routes from the slot. That is a team-high and where the Bills have been the most vulnerable this season. Pascal had a 44-629-5 line this season with 30-360-4 coming from inside.
Josh Reynolds ($4,800/$3,600)
With Cooper Kupp out last week, John Wolford targeted Van Jefferson a team-high eight times (4-50-0) and Josh Reynolds six times (4-29-0). Kupp is expected to return, so stocking Jefferson’s role and usage will be tough to latch onto.
But Reynolds himself had the most success versus Seattle among all the Rams wideouts, turning in games of 8-94-0 (10 targets) and 6-65-0 (10 targets).
Reynolds also finds himself as more of a contrarian play since he may not have Jared Goff at quarterback and although Seattle has not faced an overly strong stretch of opposing games, but have not allowed a wide receiver to catch a touchdown pass or reach 100 yards in a game since Week 9.
Scotty Miller ($4,700/$3,400)
While Antonio Brown gets the largest opportunity bump should Mike Evans be limited, do not overlook the potential for Miller to make a big play.
Miller ran a pass route on 39.5% of the team dropbacks in Week 17, his highest rate since Week 8, the last game played prior to Brown joining the team. Miller leads the team in depth of target (16.4 yards) and yards per catch (15.2). His role could make an impact here.
Washington has allowed the league’s fewest amount of passing points on throws within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage (0.28 per attempt), but does sag slightly down to 15th against deep passes (0.73). Grain of salt for strength of schedule, but Brady’s deep ball has picked up, attempting a league-high 41 passes on throws over 15 yards downfield from Week 12 on. On those throws, he has completed 56.1% for seven touchdowns, 18.1 Y/A and a 120.2 rating as opposed to 41.1%, four touchdowns, 11.5 Y/A and a 76.0 rating prior.
Trey Burton ($4,700/$2,800) and Jack Doyle ($4,500/$2,900)
The Bills and Colts project to be the most popular game on Saturday, but the tight ends in this game project to be the least popular at their position in this game. With the Colts tight end situation cannibalizing itself, splitting exposure to both Burton and Doyle is a way to get unique when blocking off this game.
The last time a Colts tight end even reached double-digit PPR points in a game was in Week 12 when Burton had 3-42-1. For the season, Burton and Doyle each caught three touchdown passes while each had four end zone targets. Burton also added two rushing touchdowns, something we have not seen in a while from their red zone offense.
Opposing teams targeted their tight ends 23.6% of the time against Buffalo (the fourth-highest rate in the league) with Buffalo checking in 20th in yards allowed per target (7.64 yards) and 19th in points allowed per target (1.86) on those looks.
Dawson Knox ($4,900/$3,200)
Similar thought process from above applies to Knox. He has reached double-digit PPR points just twice all season with more than two receptions in just two games. But he was third on the team in end zone targets (five) if chasing a touchdown opportunity attached to Allen. Since their Week 7 bye, the Colts have allowed 7.3 yards per target to opposing tight ends after 3.7 yards per target prior.
