One remaining obstacle we still face in the fantasy community as content providers and consumers is understanding that rankings, projections, tiers, and average draft positions are all different and serve different purposes.

My season-long rankings and projections focus on the probable outcomes for a player based on top-down team production and projected game script.

Then player opportunity production is based on that team volume.

We can tweak volume and efficiency for a range of outcomes per player, but that is the simplest explanation of how the projection sauce is made.

While those projections give us a range of season-long numbers and have implications for listing players in a linear format (rankings), the one thing that is missing is that even when those full-season numbers are accurate, they fail to capture the overall weekly impact and the pockets of production that are relevant to our weekly game of fantasy football.

Projecting Davante Adams for 103 receptions, 1,144 yards, and 8 touchdowns (his 2023 totals) paints a nice picture of his season-long outlook, but any gamer that rostered Adams last season will also tell you that there was a lot of weekly variance.

That is an anecdotal example to make a larger point, but there is a litany of other examples we can lay out that fit into the top-down point I am making.

There are very few players at each position that just smash weekly throughout the fantasy season at the highest level, and we are hopeful to be in on the remainder of players when they strike the hottest.

That is where player tiers come in.

2024 Fantasy Football Tiers

A lot of fantasy football tiers that you will find out there are just rankings chopped up into sections.

While the rankings are more focused on a probable tally of season-long output for a week-to-week game, I prefer to structure my tiers based on how similarly players accrue their fantasy points and by their archetypes.

By doing this, it allows me to notice actionable gaps in player pricing per tier which in turn allows for arbitrage in fantasy drafts while also highlighting some longer-odds players who have more potential than originally perceived.

Arbitrage in fantasy football is driven strongest by how production is accrued, and the order of those players (rankings) is driven by the opportunities (on a player and team level) that each player receives.

Our projections are inherently going to be wrong on those projected opportunities often.

Team situations are influenced by a plethora of things.

The game script, injuries to the player himself, injuries to surrounding teammates, ineffective play, player breakouts, and so on. That is just the game through injuries, performance variance, and fluctuation.

Understanding how a player is used allows us to find prospects who target that variance in performance and opportunities. If we are wrong on the opportunity projection, then a lower-tiered player could be an arbitrage opportunity.

While there is not a direct overlap to the individual player rankings, the order of these tiers is how I prioritize drafting the positions from an archetypical stance.

While that may be confusing for a player ranked highly on a linear list versus a specific tier he is in, I will do my best to incorporate detailed thoughts regarding draft capital in those events throughout the player breakdowns.

One final bit of housekeeping, I will be updating and adding analysis to these tiers all summer long,

With that intro to the methodology used with tiers in place, let us roll into the actual player analysis.

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Tier 1 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey

Bye: Week 9

No intro to the tier since we have one player clearly at the top.

McCaffrey is approaching the age cliff and does have a career history of soft-tissue injuries, but he is still the best player at his position in a vacuum.

In the past four seasons that McCaffrey has played in full, he has finished as the RB2, RB1, RB2, and RB1 in overall scoring.

In the two seasons he was limited by injuries during that frame, he was the RB1 and RB5 in points scored per game.

McCaffrey has always been an excellent fantasy asset, but paired with Kyle Shanahan that has been accelerated to pantheon levels.

McCaffrey led the NFL in touches (339), rushing yards (1,459), yards from scrimmage (2,023), and tied for the league lead with 21 touchdowns last season.

He was third among all players in red zone fantasy points in his first full season with Kyle Shanahan.

Only Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts scored more points in the red zone than CMC.

In terms of expected points in the red zone, only Dak Prescott and Allen were higher.

McCaffrey led the league with 79 opportunities in the red zone.

He set career-highs with 63 red zone rushes and 16 red zone targets.

McCaffrey has now played 33 games with the 49ers, scoring 39 touchdowns (with a passing touchdown) in those games.

He has played in just six games with the 49ers in which he has not scored a touchdown.

If I were a betting man (it turns out that I am), I would wager on the field being closer to McCaffrey this season than they were in 2023, which means he will not provide quite as much positional leverage as he did a year ago.

The RB2 in full-PPR formats only scored 74.2% of the points that McCaffrey posted last season.

Over the past 30 seasons, there have only been two seasons in which RB1 had a larger gap over the next player in scoring.

The average production of the RB2 compared to the RB1 over those 30 years is 93.8%.

Ironically, McCaffrey also does have one of the other two seasons providing the most fantasy leverage ever for an RB1 over the field.

I do believe Shanahan when he says that the 49ers want to preserve McCaffrey and could alleviate his workload in a better fashion this season and potentially get closer to where it was in 2022 after he joined the team. Elijah Mitchell was never healthy last season, and the team did not trust their depth.

Mitchell is far from a strong bet of staying healthy again as the clear RB2, but the addition of Isaac Guerendo does add another piece to the board.

That is not going to move McCaffrey down as the best fantasy asset perhaps ever at his position, but it is a caution that we could see the reserves in San Francisco get more work than they did a year ago.

If the 49ers are in a position to ease McCaffrey’s workload, you can also make a strong bet that he played a part in establishing the game conditions for his rest.

Tier 2 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Bijan Robinson
  • Breece Hall

While Christian McCaffrey is the best three-down asset at his position, we have a pair of young running backs that we believe have the apex outcome of becoming players of similar ilk.

Bijan Robinson

Bye: Week 12

Robinson was as advertised in year one, turning in 1,463 and 8 touchdowns himself on 272 touches.

Only five other running backs had more total yards than Robinson had a year ago, and he did that on 50.6% of his backfield touches. The others ahead of him in total yards gained had 69.5%, 72.1%, 62.2%, 76.0%, and 76.1% of their backfield touches.

Although Tyler Allgeier is a solid player, I am betting that grasp on the Atlanta backfield rises for Robinson in year two while the offense as a whole is more productive with the additions made this offseason of Kirk Cousins and Zac Robinson.

It is not hard to envision a Todd Gurley-esque year-two jump for Robinson.

Robinson had a gain of 10 or more yards on 14.0% of his rushes as a rookie, eighth in the NFL among 49 running backs with 100 or more attempts.

The down-to-down efficiency is the only minor quibble if we are picking nits with Robinson’s first year in the league.

Robinson ranked 18th in rate of runs to result in a first down or touchdown (23.4%) and 38th in success rate (33.2%) among those same 49 backs.

He made up for some of that with production through the air.

Robinson accounted for 16.9% of the Atlanta targets as a rookie, which trailed only McCaffrey (17.6%) at the position.

Robinson ended his rookie season with 58 receptions (sixth among running backs) for 487 yards (fourth) and 4 touchdowns (tied for third).

I have gone back and forth on Robinson versus Breece Hall as my RB2, but I believe if we are splitting hairs here, Robinson has a better offensive line, a softer schedule, and a cleaner history of injury to cut the difference.

The Falcons had our second-highest rank among offensive lines as a staff this season while the Jets came in at sixth.

Atlanta has our easiest-ranked rushing schedule in the preseason while the Jets are 28th.

I also just recently did a show with ESPN’s injury expert Stephania Bell. In that episode, she highlighted a study that the NFL did in which repeat ACL injuries increase within 22 months of the initial injury. That does not mean Hall is necessarily a high-risk player, but Robinson has a clean resume in that department.

Breece Hall

Bye: Week 12

Returning from an ACL injury that cut his rookie season short in 2022, Hall still managed to post strong counting stats in this offense a year ago.

Hall turned 299 touches into 1,585 yards from scrimmage and 9 touchdowns.

Only Christian McCaffrey finished with more total yards than Hall did among running backs last season despite a slow start in terms of playing time and operating in one of the league’s worst offensive climates.

In the passing game, Hall was second on the team in targets (95) and receptions (76) while catching a team-high 4 touchdowns.

Hall did not even play 50% of the offensive snaps in a game until Week 5.

While the top-down efficiency from his full campaign is lacking given the limitations that this offense faced through quarterback and offensive line play, Hall showcased his immense upside to close the season.

Over the final three weeks of the season, Hall logged his three highest snap shares at 77%, 71%, and 89%.

  • WK16 vs WAS: 32 touches for 191 yards with 2 touchdowns.
  • WK17 @ CLE: 22 touches for 126 yards and a TD
  • WK18 @ NE: 39 touches for 190 yards and a TD

Hall has now been the RB8 and the RB6 in points per game over his first two seasons in the league.

Entering 2024 fully removed from his ACL injury, with Aaron Rodgers returning and significant pieces added to the offensive line, Hall is set up strongly this upcoming season.

Last season, the Jets' most frequently used combination on the offensive line was on the field for just 143 plays.

That was 13.6% of their total snaps, the lowest rate in the NFL last season.

This offseason, the Jets have added Tyron Smith, John Simpson, Morgan Moses, and Olu Fashanu as core pieces up front while hoping to keep Alijah-Vera Tucker on the field more than the previous two seasons.

If you are making a case for Hall over Robinson, I have little pushback outside of what was highlighted above.

Hall should have a wider gap in leading his backfield than Robinson since the reserves for New York are littered with questions and jostling for placement on the depth chart. None of those players have produced to the level of Tyler Allgeier.

Tier 3 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Saquon Barkley
  • Jonathan Taylor
  • Derrick Henry

There is a consensus for the top three running backs this season, but then things get nebulous.

I do consider these next two tiers to be split into subsections, but the next six players fit into a similar pocket of draft cost.

I would not get hung up on the designation of Tier 3 or Tier 4 in that regard.

I am giving these first three backs the edge based on a better body of work than the next tier and a stronger physical profile. There is no question that they will share much backfield work at all with the depth on their rosters.

Their ceiling touchdown potential carries so much scoring weight. I would not blink if you told me that any of these running backs scored double-digit touchdowns.

But these veteran backs also come with some potential issues in playing alongside mobile quarterbacks, which can impact receiving and goal-line opportunities. While all of these backs have immense ceiling outcomes in the touchdown department, they also each have some fragility there as well.

The largest issue that I run into when selecting any of the backs from Tier 3/Tier 4 is that the gap from those running backs to Tier 5 is thinner than where the wide receiver position falls off in drafts.

That could change over the summer as the final ADP aligns, but that is the largest reason why I am taking wide receivers in the area where these players go off the board.

In auction formats, you can mitigate that opportunity cost.

Saquon Barkley

Bye: Week 5

After two injury-filled seasons in 2020-2021, Barkley has bounced back as the RB5 and RB13 in overall PPR scoring in each of the past two seasons.

Despite having a career-high rate of runs against light boxes in 2023 (32.4%), Barkley still ranked 36th in success rate and 21st in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards.

The Giants won more than six games just once since drafting Barkley and have never finished higher than 15th in points per game over that stretch. The Giants were 30th or worse in scoring three times over those six seasons.

The Eagles have finished 12th, third, and eighth in scoring over the past three seasons with Jalen Hurts as their quarterback.

Barkley has not played with an elite offensive teammate since Odell Beckham, and that came for just one season.

The Eagles have been third and first in yards before contact per running back rush the past two years.

Philadelphia was first in the NFL in run block win rate (77%) per ESPN in 2023. Per Pro Football Focus, the Eagles were third in collective run blocking grade.

The Giants were 31st in ESPN’s run block win rate (67%) and ranked 30th in run blocking grade as a team per PFF.

Even with the retirement of Jason Kelce, this is a massive step up in offensive line talent for Barkley.

The Eagles also have our fourth-easiest rushing schedule projected for the season.

While the offensive environment is a collective win for Barkley, will he be given a plethora of scoring opportunities that come with attachment to a high-scoring offense?

In 2023, Philadelphia running backs had zero rushing attempts from the one-yard line. They were the only team in the NFL without one.

Their quarterback had a league-high 13.

In 2022, Philadelphia running backs only had three rushes from the one-yard line, which was 24th in the league.

Their quarterbacks led the NFL with 12.

I do believe that Barkley will get more scoring chances than previous lead-backs in this offense, but there is no reason for the Eagles to abandon the tush push unless Kelce was the key to success.

Hurts has a league-high 24 rushing touchdowns from the 1-yard line over the past three seasons on 31 attempts (77.4%).

The league success rate on those runs over that span is 58.2%.

The last area where Barkley could be squeezed out of viable fantasy touches is in the passing game.

Since entering the league, Barkley has been targeted on 21.5% of his routes run.

D’Andre Swift dropped to a career-low 2.4 catches per game with the Eagles last season after averaging over 3.4 per game in each of his first three seasons.

The Eagles are not a high-attempt team and they have more target earners at wide receiver and tight end than Barkley has played with to this point.

All of that said, there is some overlap to Barkley that reminds me of when Christian McCaffrey went to San Francisco.

When CMC was traded, there was a contingency who suggested that it was actually “bad” for his fantasy output since the 49ers had so many many options to limit McCaffrey's touches and that Kyle Shanahan did not throw to his running backs.

The acquisition of Barkley here for the Eagles (a team that has never invested into running back under Howie Roseman) is outright a signal that things are going change in terms of their running back usage.

Even if not, from Weeks 2-12 last season before their 1-7 finish to the season, Swift was the RB5 in total PPR points and the RB5 in expected points.

If the Eagles are an effective team and offense, there is just an element to overthinking things with Barkley. If the Eagles are hitting as a team, then we make a good bet that he is part of the ride.

Barkley will no doubt be an RB1 for fantasy football in my eyes based on his apex outcome, but I do believe he has thinner odds to be the RB1 in overall scoring than his immediate ADP peers in early drafts.

If I can land Barkley in a position after I have already landed an elite WR1, those roster builds become enticing.

Jonathan Taylor

Bye: Week 14

After destroying box scores in the 2021 season, the past two years for Taylor have been marred by injuries and a contractual dispute.

In that 2021 season, Taylor turned 372 touches into 2,171 total yards and 20 touchdowns.

Over the past two seasons since, he has 408 touches for 1,898 total yards and 12 touchdowns.

After missing six games in 2022 dealing with ongoing ankle issues, Taylor did not play in the first four games of 2023 due to a holdout looking for a trade or a new contract.

It took another three weeks for Taylor to play more than 50% of the team snaps.

He then suffered a torn ligament in his thumb in Week 12 which forced him to miss the following three weeks.

At least when he was on the field, Taylor showed a bounce back in multiple areas compared to his 2022 season which was limited by that ankle issue.

Out of 49 running backs with 100 or more runs last season, Taylor ranked…

  • 10th in the rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (13.6%)
  • 11th in success rate (40.8%)
  • 11th in the rate of runs to result in a first down or touchdown (24.9%)
  • 13th in yards after contact per carry (3.12)

He also capped the season with 188 yards rushing on 30 carries in the season finale with the season a playoff spot on the line.

Taylor will look to start the 2024 season off with a clean slate.

Losing Zack Moss during free agency, the Colts do not have much-proven production behind Taylor.

We only saw Taylor play two snaps all season with Anthony Richardson on the field, so that dynamic is a wild card.

Richardson should help Taylor’s efficiency rebounding, but we do not know the impact that Richardson will have on Taylor’s receptions and scoring opportunities.

It was an extremely small sample, but Richardson only targeted running backs on 13.6% of his throws, which ranked 51st out of 56 quarterbacks to throw 50 or more passes.

Catching passes has never been a large part of Taylor’s game.

Through four NFL seasons, just 28.4%, 23.6%, 28.9%, and 24.8% of his PPR scoring output has come via receiving.

We did not get to see Richardson and Taylor play together near the end zone last season, but Richardson did account for three of the seven runs in goal-to-go situations when available. Inside of the five-yard line, Richardson had 50% of the team rushes when he was on the field.

Derrick Henry

Bye: Week 14

Henry’s outlook is our first example of why tiering players by archetype can be beneficial over rankings.

Both Barkley and Taylor are better bets than Henry based on where each is on the age spectrum, but in a phone booth, Henry has a ton of overlap in top-down offensive situations and fantasy usage but is selected with a larger gap between those players.

Henry is coming off a season in which he scored fewer fantasy points per game for the second consecutive season.

His RB16 rank in points per game was the first time since 2018 that he was not an RB1 in that category.

Henry rushed for a career-low in yards per carry (4.2).

He also played just 53% of the snaps last season, his lowest rate in a season since the 2018 season.

Over his previous four seasons, Henry played 64%, 66%, 71%, and 67% of the snaps.

But make no mistake, Henry was still a workhorse back.

Despite giving away more snaps in 2023, Henry still led the NFL in rushing attempts for the fourth time over the past five seasons.

He got there because when Henry was on the field, he was getting the football.

The Titans ran the ball on 58.2% of the snaps that Henry played last season.

The only running back with a higher rate who also played more than 200 snaps was Tyler Allgeier (60.6%).

If looking down the board a few pegs, Gus Edwards sported a 54.3% rate, which was the sixth highest among running backs.

Although Henry did have some peripheral decline, he also still managed to clear 1,000 yards rushing and rush for double-digit touchdowns for the sixth consecutive season.

He averaged 19.4 PPR points per game in his weeks with a touchdown.

He averaged just 5.5 per game in his weeks without a touchdown.

In his eight games without a touchdown, Henry was a top-24 scorer just twice.

That said, touchdowns should be an available resource here when joining the Ravens.

Henry found paydirt that many times on a Tennessee team that ranked 27th in points per game (17.9) and was 26th in points per drive (1.65).

He is joining a Baltimore team that was fourth in the NFL in points per game (27.7) and sixth in points per drive (2.35).

The Ravens had 74 red zone possessions in 2023 (fifth) while the Titans had 48 (23rd), and Henry still found his way to double-digit touchdowns.

The Ravens ran the football 59.6% of the time in the red zone, which was second in the league behind the Eagles (63.0%).

The difference between the Ravens and the Eagles, however, is that their mobile quarterback did not bogart all of the scoring opportunities.

Baltimore running backs accounted for 20 total rushing touchdowns in 2023, with Edwards leaving 13 scores behind in his final season with the Ravens.

Ravens running backs had 40 rushing attempts in goal-to-goal situations last year (fourth in the league).

Inside of the five-yard line, Baltimore backs were third in the NFL with 25 rushes.

We highlighted how the Philadelphia running backs had zero rushes from the one-yard line while Jalen Hurts had all of them.

The Ravens backfield carried 8 of 10 rushing attempts from the one-yard line.

We just saw Edwards score 13 touchdowns.

Running backs at age 30 or over have accounted for just 8.3% of the RB1 scoring seasons over the past 30 years, but we did have Raheem Mostert there last year at age 31 on the strength of touchdown production.

Mostert scored 21 times with 18 of them on the ground.

If he can stay healthy the entire way in 2024, Henry should be able to push 15-plus touchdowns on the ground given his career output in a far worse offense paired with the scoring opportunities that Baltimore has provided.

In 2019, the Ravens signed Mark Ingram as he was hitting age 30, and Ingram found his way to 15 touchdowns and 1,265 yards.

Henry just turned 30 years old this January, so a peripheral decline is expected in terms of his efficiency and his reduced snap count cutting out the empty calorie snaps he played.

Going further under the hood, Henry’s explosive run rate was a career low.

At his age, we should expect some recoil in that area.

But Henry remained a bulldozer, ranking eighth in the league in yards after contact per rush (3.32 yards) out of 49 running backs to carry the ball 100 or more times.

The Titans were 21st in the league in ESPN’s run block win rate while the Ravens were fifth.

Tennessee fared better with an 18th-ranked run blocking grade at Pro Football Focus, but Baltimore was far higher at sixth in the league.

While this should be an upgrade for Henry, it should be noted that Baltimore has a lot in motion up front right now.

They lost guards Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson in free agency, who led their offensive line in snaps last year.

Ronnie Stanley has not played a full NFL season since being drafted in 2016.

They will start rookie Roger Rosengarten at right tackle.

The only concrete lineman they have right now is center Tyler Linderbaum.

Tier 4 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Jahmyr Gibbs
  • De’Von Achane
  • James Cook

As noted, I do believe these three backs are in the same range as the previous three overall.

The difference here is that all of these backs are sub-sized options that project to share their backfields.

A decade ago, this archetype of running back would have been limited for fantasy success, but the game has changed with fewer three-down running backs across the league.

With the way the NFL is using their running backs, the field has opened a spot for these “satellite-plus” backs to have more stability as fantasy options, even if they never push for more than 250 touches in an NFL season.

When the league has opened up to this type of player being their lead back, there is a wealth of fantasy upside. Christian McCaffrey is the extreme example, but we have also just had Austin Ekeler rip off a great run as a sub-sized back given the keys to his backfield.

If any of these three backs get close to front-end backfield splits, they can have monster fantasy seasons, but inversely from the previous tier, I would not blink if you told me that all of these players had disappointing touchdown campaigns.

For full transparency, this subset of backs is the group I have drafted the least based on where their draft costs have been this offseason.

Jahmyr Gibbs

Bye: Week 5

Detroit took some flak for selecting Gibbs 12th overall last spring, but Gibbs turned 234 touches into 1,261 total yards and 11 touchdowns as a rookie.

Both David Montgomery and Gibbs missed time over the front half of the season, but from Week 10 on, the Lions had both available and utilized both in creating one of the best tandems in the league.

Detroit RBs From Week 10 On

Running BackSnapsTouchesScrimmage YardsTDs
Gibbs3381306979
Montgomery2411356817

Gibbs had the edge in overall snaps due to his role in the receiving game. Gibbs ran 191 pass routes over that span compared to 91 for Montgomery.

Outside of Gibbs having a lock on running routes, this was a true 1A and 1B backfield where the interchanged parts.

Inside of the 10-yard line over that span, Gibbs totaled 17 touches while Monty had 15.

Inside of the five-yard line, Montgomery had 9 touches to 7 for Gibbs.

In spots where the team needed only 1-3 yards for a first down, Gibbs and Montgomery each had 24 touches.

Over those final nine games of the regular season with both backs sharing the backfield, Gibbs did have four weeks as the RB24 or lower, but his contingency value for any time this backfield is his can rival that of even McCaffrey.

In the three games that Monty missed last year, Gibbs scored 27.6, 29.9. and 26.2 PPR points.

This is why Gibbs has such a lofty ADP despite some fragility overall when the Detroit backfield is at full strength.

Detroit has our top-ranked offensive line, plays a plethora of indoor games, and loves to use their running backs near the end zone.

In three seasons under Ben Johnson, Detroit is eighth in running rate inside of the red zone and fourth in the league in run rate inside of the 10-yard line.

While those rates are great, the total numbers are even better.

Under Johnson, their running backs have a league-high 246 red zone runs over that period with 40 red zone targets (12th).

Detroit running backs have a league-high 147 rushes inside of the 10-yard line.

De’Von Achane

Bye: Week 6

I believe Achane is the hardest player to correctly gauge for fantasy coming into the season.

Miami selected Achane in the third round last spring and found offensive lightning.

He totaled 997 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns on just 130 touches, averaging an unimaginable 7.8 yards per rush.

No other running back in league history has ever averaged more than 7.0 yards per carry with 100 or more rushes in a season.

Achane had a run of 10 or more yards on 21.6% of his runs as a rookie.

The only other player with a higher rate in the 2000s was Alvin Kamara back in 2017.

Achane scored 8 rushing touchdowns.

His expected scoring rate was 3.6 rushing scores.

Just three of his rushing touchdowns came inside of the 5-yard line while four came from 10 or more yards out.

Achane was 10th among all running backs in red zone fantasy points scored despite ranking 31st in expected points scored.

He only had 12 total touches inside of the 10-yard line, but he scored a touchdown on six of them. That 46.2% touchdown rate on touches inside of the 10-yard line was only behind Kareem Hunt and Saquon Barkley (53.3% each).

Achane only had six opportunities (targets and runs) inside of the 5-yard line. Five of them resulted in touchdowns.

He caught 3 touchdowns versus 1.9 expected receiving scores.

While there is 100% pending regression for all of that efficiency, no player simultaneously produces more FOMO when passing on him in drafts.

Over the eight games in which he reached double-digit touches, Achane averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game. He was RB8 or better in six of those eight games.

While a healthy version of Achane looks bonkers if you could extrapolate his 2023 efficiency, his size (5-foot-9 and 188 pounds) could be a restrictor plate on him ever being maxed out with immense volume.

While Achane was electric whenever he was available, that availability was an issue as a rookie.

He had a shoulder injury in the preseason that put him behind the curve to open the season, had an MCL sprain that caused him to miss four weeks in the middle of the season, then he re-aggravated that injury in his first game back after just three total snaps. Achane then closed the season with a toe injury.

At the end of his rookie season, Achane missed six total games and had two other games in which he totaled nine snaps.

The Miami backfield was rarely healthy last season.

I don’t believe we ever saw Miami operate under their presumed plan of attack entering the year and constantly calibrating based on what was available.

After the Denver explosion game, Achane and Raheem Mostert only played two games the rest of the season in which both were on the field for half of the team plays.

They only had five games after the Denver game in which both players made it completely through the game.

In that five-game sample, Mostert out-touched Achane 73 to 63 overall and 11 to 3 inside of the five-yard line.

We are picking apart thin samples trying to diagnose the future of this backfield no matter what we cut it.

To top that all off, the team added Jaylen Wright to the mix in the draft, whom I had as one of the top backs available.

While I cannot pretend that I know how the touches will be dispersed when everyone is healthy, I do believe that Mostert will be the goal-line back.

I believe Achane is going to be on the early-career plan that we have seen from players such as Jamaal Charles, so regardless of the split, Achane is going to have to remain electric in scoring long-distance touchdowns.

The running back position is at the bottom in terms of the gap between the highest scorer at the position and the positional baselines.

Factoring in those requirements means that having a high-scoring running back is still the biggest edge you can have in fantasy football on the weekly and seasonal levels. High-scoring weeks play a larger role in winning your fantasy games than low-scoring games play in losing your weeks.

Achane is one of those running backs that has volatility but also an immense weekly ceiling even while limited and a legendary ceiling under an apex outcome. If you are starting your drafts with elite wide receiver play, that ceiling becomes alluring when paired with wide receivers capable of posting crooked numbers in unison.

James Cook

Bye: Week 12

Cook does not get thrown in with Gibbs and Achane because he has yet to produce any rushing touchdowns (they are fragile for this archetype and Cook has a cap here playing with Josh Allen), but his apex outcome is just as high if he ever does run into touchdown luck.

He is already priced well below Gibbs, but this is another example where there is potential arbitrage through tiering.

The inverse is also true.

I would also suggest that this is the most probable outcome and why this subset is extremely hard to pay the iron price for if you aren’t locked into a situation like Ekeler was in his final three years with the Chargers.

If Cook stays on a similar path but Gibbs and Achane run colder in the scoring department, this is where they will be.

Overall, Cook made significant strides in his second season.

After 110 touches for 687 yards and 3 touchdowns as a rookie, he turned 281 touches into 1,567 yards and 6 touchdowns last season.

Only Christian McCaffrey and Breece Hall had more total yards on the season than Cook, and he did that on 62.2% of the backfield touches, which was 11th in the league.

While that is a feather in Cook’s cap, we still need to get more money touches for him in fantasy moving forward.

Including the playoffs, Cook has just 5 rushing touchdowns through two NFL seasons compared to 5 receiving scores.

His rushing touchdowns have come from 24, 27, 1, 24, and 12 yards out.

Whereas both Gibbs and Achane play with quarterbacks who are not running, Cook has to contend with Allen stealing scoring opportunities.

Allen rushed a team-high 14 times inside of the five-yard line during the regular season while Cook had four rushes in that area of the field.

Allen rushed six times from the one-yard line while all of the Buffalo running backs combined for eight runs (Cook had one of those).

Cook did see increased usage after Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, but we need those short-scoring opportunities.

Over those nine games, Cook had 17 red zone touches while the other Buffalo backs totaled 16. He had 8 of 12 backfield touches inside of the 10-yard line over that stretch.

Outside of dealing with Allen near the end zone, the Bills outright did not use Cook as a thumper near the goal line or in short yardage.

Latavius Murray out-snapped Cook 25 to 13 inside of the five-yard line last season.

Murray also out-snapped Cook 75 to 60 in situations needing 1-3 yards for a new set of downs. Murray out-touched Cook 38 to 32 in those situations.

Cook was the average RB29 weekly in his 12 games without a touchdown in 2023, posting just two RB1 scoring weeks in those games.

The Bills will be throwing two rookie running backs behind Cook this season, which leaves the door open for Cook to carve out more of those opportunities, but Allen’s presence is what is holding back Cook from pushing the top players in this tier.

Tier 5 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Isiah Pacheco
  • Kyren Williams
  • Travis Etienne
  • Joe Mixon
  • Aaron Jones
  • Rachaad White
  • Alvin Kamara

After breaking up the front end of the position into smaller tiers, we finally hit a stretch of flat land.

This is our first larger tier, made up of starting running backs that have already provided fantasy worth.

All of these backs come with a wart or two, which has them as fringe-RB1 draft picks and considered potential “dead zone” backs, but also can be viable weekly RB1 options for fantasy.

Isiah Pacheco

Bye: Week 6

Building on the way he finished his rookie season in 2022, Pacheco turned 249 touches into 1,179 yards and 9 touchdowns over 14 games in his second season.

Pacheco has been a mixed bag as a runner in the NFL, but the top-down results are there.

Already getting over 2,000 total yards and 14 touchdowns through two seasons of a seventh-round pick is a net win, regardless of how he got there.

In 2023, Pacheco ranked 25th among running backs in success rate as a runner (37.1%) and 24th in explosive run rate (9.8%).

What is alluring about Pacheco from a fantasy stance is his attachment to the Kansas City offense as a whole creating scoring opportunities paired with how the Chiefs have handled this offseason.

We have made a case for Patrick Mahomes and this passing attack being stronger in 2024 after a down season.

Even in a season that was a mixed bag for this offense in 2023, Kansas City still ranked seventh in the NFL in red zone possessions and was second in goal-to-go plays.

Pacheco accounted for 10 of the Kansas City runs inside of the five-yard line while the rest of the running backs on the roster combined for five.

He was sixth among all running backs in expected points inside of the red zone while operating as a part-time player.

The status of this depth chart is what gives Pacheco the most appeal taking a step forward as a fantasy RB1.

After running a route on just 20.4% of the team dropbacks as a rookie in 2022, Pacheco climbed up to a 37.3% rate last season.

In the five games that McKinnon missed last season, Pacheco ran a route on 47.5% of the team dropbacks. That rate would have ranked as RB13 for the full season.

In the 10 games in which Pacheco ran a route on 40% or more of the team dropbacks, he averaged 17.6 touches and 15.3 PPR points per game.

In the three games in which he hit 50% or more, he scored 6.6, 25.9, and 29.5 points in those games.

Andy Reid has already suggested that Pacheco will be a three-down asset this season, but the addition of Samaje Perine is another veteran back capable of filling that McKinnon role while insulating the lackluster depth overall here.

Those snaps could be the difference between Pacheco having a shot at even being the RB1 overall in a lofty outcome versus a fringe RB1 that needs to score touchdowns.

Pacheco played 70% of the snaps in three games last season.

In those games, he ended those weeks as the RB4, RB8, and RB2 in weekly scoring.

Any time that Reid has utilized a back as a three-down player, that player has been extremely profitable for fantasy purposes.

There have been 72 games in which a Kansas City running back has hit a 70% snap share in a game while Reid has been the Head Coach.

Those players have averaged 18.9 PPR points per game.

We are not just talking guys like Jamaal Charles and Kareem Hunt as well.

Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, Knile Davis, Damien WIlliams, and Darrel Williams are part of the sample that has turned in front-end RB1 scoring weeks as the lead backs in Kansas City.

Kyren Williams

Bye: Week 6

After posting just 215 total yards on 44 touches over 10 games as a rookie, Williams exploded in year two for 1,350 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns on 260 touches over 12 games.

Out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes last season, Williams ranked:

  • 5th in yards per rush (5.0)
  • 2nd in EPA per rush (0.11)
  • 2nd in success rate (46.9%)
  • 4th in the rate of runs that failed to gain yardage (12.3%)
  • 7th in the rate of runs to result in a first down or touchdown (27.2%)
  • 12th in the rate of runs for 10 or more yards (11.4%)

For fantasy, he was the RB2 in points per game behind only Christian McCaffrey.

All of that should make Williams are smash for fantasy purposes, right?

The only blemish was that he missed four games due to an ankle injury and was also banged up in the team’s playoff game with a hand injury, which led to offseason surgery.

Through two NFL seasons, Williams has had multiple foot and ankle injuries.

He is not the biggest back in the league at 5-foot-9 and 194 pounds, so his frame paired with the injuries could compromise his workload moving forward.

Williams accounted for 90% or more of the backfield touches in six games last season, tied for the most in the NFL among running backs. The player he was tied with (Joe Mixon) played all 17 games.. Williams played in just 12.

With Williams off the field last season, the backup running backs for the Rams were 25th in the NFL in EPA per rush and dead last with 3.3 yards per carry.

With their depth chart exposed when Williams was unavailable, the Rams were always going to upgrade their depth.

No big deal, right?

Blake Corum may kill two birds with one stone as being a viable way to reduce the workload for Williams without giving up a ton of efficiency like a year ago when every non-Williams back touched the football.

We have seen previous Rams rookie backs such as Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers take time to carve out touches in the NFL, and they were selected with higher capital than Corum. Those backs were also fighting for touches alongside Malcolm Brown, not only each other.

This is one of the few spots where Corum could have landed for opportunity paired with having a physical profile that is not much worse than the incumbent.

Corum’s physical profile is nearly identical to that of Williams entering the NFL.

We inherently have wanted the lead back in this offense.

There have been 66 games under Sean McVay in which a running back has gotten 60% of the team rushes.

In those games, those backs have averaged 19.3 PPR points per game with a 55% hit rate as an RB1 scorer in weekly output.

Even reducing Williams down to 55% of the team rushes and 10% of the targets, he still projects strongly.

Williams also should still project to retain his role near the end zone.

He had 31 touches inside of the 10-yard line, which was fourth in the league despite the time he missed.

Only McCaffrey and Raheem Mostert scored more red zone fantasy points than Williams did last season despite all of that missed time.

That is why he still represents a value this summer.

The trepidation around Williams does not have much to do with projection, however, it has more to do with his range of outcomes from a player that fits a profile that has burned fantasy gamers in the past.

We have seen late-round running backs pop for career seasons and then fizzle out when it is time to pay the iron price for fantasy.

We all have been victim to one of Justin Forsett, Peyton Hillis, Andre Ellington, Thomas Rawls, or James Robinson to name just a few backs that have spiked as low-leverage fantasy picks or grabbed off the waiver wire to help win fantasy titles only to be left holding the bag when those players cost viable draft capital the following season.

Running into the next Arian Foster is a thin needle to thread.

McVay has rotated several backs since Todd Gurley left, and Williams was not a prospect with tons of collegiate pedigree.

There is also no receiving out in place here.

Matthew Stafford targeted running backs on a league-low 12.9% of his passes last season.

When it comes to selecting Williams, I do not want to completely fade him. Just pick the right spots and cost.

I believe he best fits teams outside of auctions going WR-WR to open snake drafts when he hits the third round but remains one of the larger risk versus reward picks we have on the board early in drafts this season.

Travis Etienne

Bye: Week 12

Etienne amassed 1,484 total yards and 12 touchdowns on 325 touches in 2023, his first full season as a workhorse back after posting 1,441 yards and 5 touchdowns on 255 touches in his first season in 2022.

It is an arbitrary mark, but here is the list of players with at least 1,400 yards from scrimmage in each of the past two seasons:

  • Travis Etienne
  • Christian McCaffrey
  • Tyreek Hill
  • CeeDee Lamb
  • A.J. Brown

That’s the list.

And Etienne has done that in his first two seasons playing in the NFL.

The track record for running backs to eclipse 1,400 yards in each of their first two seasons for the remainder of their careers is solid.

Suffice it to say, he probably is not a question mark for talent, but his surrounding environment may still play a role in his rushing efficiency.

His production in 2023 was more of a result of sheer volume over efficiency.

Etienne was efficient in 2022 with 5.7 yards per touch compared to last season (4.6 yards per touch), so the blame for last year’s decline is not entirely on him.

Out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes last season, Etienne was modestly 26th in yards after contact per rush (2.87 yards) but was 40th among those same players in yards before contact per rush (0.91 yards).

In 2022, Etienne averaged 2.02 yards before contact per rush.

The Jaguars ended the season ranking 29th in ESPN’s pass block win rate and 27th in run block win rate (68%).

At Pro Football Focus, they were 21st in overall pass-blocking grade and 31st in run-blocking grade as a team.

Jacksonville is largely running back the same starters from a year ago up front aside from the addition of Mitch Morse at center, so they are looking for players such as Cam Robinson, Brandon Scherff, Ezra Cleveland, and Anton Harrison to improve their quality a play from a year ago.

It does not help the cause that the Jaguars have our hardest rushing schedule.

Six of his final seven games of the fantasy regular season come against teams that were top-10 in yards allowed per carry to running backs in 2023 while he also has a bye week mixed in over the stretch.

Etienne accounted for 76.1% of the Jacksonville backfield touches, which was the second-highest rate in the league behind Joe Mixon last year.

We should expect that rate to come back to the pack in 2024, but it is hard to see it being reduced significantly despite how much Doug Pederson wants to unless someone behind Etienne steps up.

On a team competing for the postseason with a lot on the line after their collapse a year ago, it is hard not to bet on Etienne having a significant workload again this season.

Tank Bigsby was one of the worst running backs per snap as a rookie, and the team still only has D’Ernest Johnson (51 touches in 2023) and rookie Keilan Robinson to compete for opportunities.

Alvin Kamara

Bye: Week 12

Kamara is an intriguing case this summer.

His 89.2 yards from scrimmage per game were a career low.

He averaged a career-low 4.5 yards per touch in 2023.

As a runner, Kamara was 35th out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes with 3.9 yards per carry.

The explosive runs for Kamara have disappeared in recent seasons.

Kamara had a run of 10 or more yards on 8.3% of his runs, 34th on that same list of players.

Over the past three seasons, his 8.7% explosive run rate ranks 65th at the position after he posted a 13.6% rate over his career to that point.

Kamara’s 2.51 yards after contact per rush were the fewest of his career, a number that has gone down from the season prior in five consecutive seasons.

The touchdowns have dried up a bit as well.

Kamara has 10 total touchdowns over the past two seasons and has rushed for five or fewer touchdowns in three consecutive seasons.

That aligns with the emergence of Taysom Hill near the end zone.

Last year, Hill had as many runs inside of the five-yard line (8) as Kamara did with four of those runs coming at the one-yard line compared to three for Kamara.

Kamara will turn 29 this summer, approaching the age cliff gamers take notice of.

Despite a plethora of red flags, Kamara still closed the season as the RB3 in points per game in PPR formats (17.9) and the RB5 in half-PPR leagues (15.0).

He got there on the strength of staying active as a receiver.

He caught 75 passes in just 13 games, averaging a league-high 5.8 catches per game at his position.

Kamara did average a career-low 6.2 yards per catch, but those receptions were enough to carry his totals for fantasy.

His receiving role was easy to diagnose as well.

Kamara averaged 8.8 targets and 7.7 receptions per game in seven losses compared to 4.0 targets and 3.5 receptions per game in wins.

He had a league-high 17.9% team target share among running backs when New Orleans trailed on the scoreboard compared to an 11.1% target share when the Saints were tied or ahead (which was 16th among backs).

The Saints have not added hardly any receiving threat to this offense, so I would expect Kamara to hang around the leaderboards as a pass catcher in this offense.

Just due to that, he is going to look like a value when comparing projections to ADP.

But the fact that he was so sensitive to game scripts as a pass catcher paired with sharing goal line work as a runner makes him a fragile back to be aggressive with.

The good news there is that gamers have priced the bulk of those concerns in. In full-PPR formats, I have no issues grabbing Kamara as a safety net when landing a strong wide receiver to open. In non-PPR formats, he is a back I am largely bypassing unless he falls below ADP.

Joe Mixon

Bye: Week 14

Mixon has been a back that has left meat on the bone for his career as a runner, but he is a reliable workhorse.

Turning 28 this summer, Mixon has posted over 1,200 total yards in five of the past six seasons.

He has 37 total touchdowns over the last three years.

Last season with Cincinnati, Mixon led all running backs with 80.8% of his backfield rushes while accounting for a league-high 78.8% of the backfield touches overall.

While Mixon has been able to accumulate counting stats playing in good offenses (something he has in place again here), his peripheral metrics have not been as strong.

Even last season, his underlying metrics look similar to what Houston got out of Devin Singletary.

2023 Joe Mixon vs Devin Singletary

2023YPCEPA/RushSuccess%Explosive%Stuff%YAC/Att
Mixon 4.0-0.0636.6%10.5%16.0%2.51
Singletary4.2-0.0735.6%10.6%16.2%2.85

Mixon also had those stats running into light boxes on 35.4% of his carries while Singletary only ran into light fronts on 26.4% of his runs.

Mixon has been more of a “don’t go broke” fantasy pick over being a league winner, but at his current cost, you can stack good wide receivers and still add a workhorse to those rosters.

Mixon also does have a few more added outs for upside based on his new landing spot.

He has already played in a great offensive environment and has still fallen short of being an elite fantasy option, but he is getting out of the AFC North where division games have been blood baths, and he is entering a new rushing scheme.

Mixon has been a back that has steadily run out of shotgun settings.

Since he entered the NFL, 63.6% of his runs have come out of shotgun. Over the past two seasons, that rate is 78.1%.

Houston is certainly going to run 11 personnel at a higher rate this season based on the quality of the wide receiver room, but Mixon is going to have more run with the quarterback under center and with a fullback on the field than ever before.

Houston was 28th in the NFL in shotgun run rate (28.2%) on running back runs.

Mixon has just 20 career runs with another back on the field.

Houston was fifth in the NFL last season in runs with a fullback on the field (198).

Under Slowik, Houston was fourth in the NFL in run rate from 21 personnel (28.7%).

We should expect more 3WR sets from Houston this season, but Slowik is not going to scrap the fullback from the run game.

The last piece is that this offensive line will be better than in 2023 solely based on better health.

Houston’s most frequently used offensive line combination last season was on the field for 20.2% of their offensive snaps, which was 28th in the league.

This offensive front should be improved with just better fortune staying healthy.

Shaq Mason was the only lineman to play in all 17 regular-season games.

Only three other players played in 10 or more games. Of those three, Laremy Tunsil is the only one currently on the roster.

2022 first-round pick Kenyon Green missed the entire season with a shoulder injury that he suffered in the final preseason game.

His backup Kendrick Green only played three games.

Tytus Howard only appeared in seven games.

The team selected Juice Scruggs in the second round last season. He didn’t play until Week 12 due to a hamstring injury in the preseason.

Just running into a better fortune in keeping their players healthier this season will go a long way in this unit playing better in 2024.

Rachaad White

Bye: Week 11

White turned in a solid season in his second year, amassing 1,539 yards and 9 touchdowns on 336 touches.

He ended as the RB10 in PPR points per game (15.8) and the RB14 in half-PPR leagues (13.9 points per game).

What has gamers cautious about White going into 2024 is that he accumulated those top-down counting stats through receiving efficiency and a lack of competition in the backfield.

Out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes, White ranked:

  • 40th in yards per rush (3.6)
  • 45th in EPA per rush (-0.20)
  • 47th in success rate (26.1%)
  • 38th in the rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (7.7%)
  • 42nd in yards after contact per rush (2.53)

On a positive note, only 13.2% of his runs failed to gain yardage, which was the sixth-best among the same group.

This offensive line did not help matters in that area, either.

In 2023, Tampa Bay was dead last in ESPN’s run block win rate.

At Pro Football Focus, they were 29th in overall run block grade.

It is hard to say that the team objectively improved greatly in that area as they sit 19th in our preseason offensive line rankings.

If you are backing White at his cost, it is largely based on playing the part of rushing efficiency (or in this case, inefficiency) not being as sticky as volume.

White accounted for 76.0% of the Tampa Bay backfield touches, which was the third-highest rate for back last season.

White had 75.6% of his backfield rushes, which was second in the NFL behind Joe Mixon.

Overall, there is not a ton on the surface to challenge White having a high workload again in 2024.

The Bucs did add Bucky Irving during the draft, but Irving was a Day 3 pick and an undersized back.

At 5-foot-9 and 192 pounds, Irving does not profile as a back that will garner a high workload rushing and he does not have the top-end measured athleticism like say De’Von Achane to offer a trump card to counter being undersized.

White also has a calling card as a pass catcher, and he did not disappoint in that area in 2023.

He was fourth among all running backs with 64 receptions and third in receiving yards (549).

His 8.6 yards per reception were 11th among all running backs with double-digit catches on the season and higher than both backs that had more receptions than him (Breece Hall and Christian McCaffrey).

While White does carry some fragility in conceding touches should he remain inefficient as a runner, he could also improve in that area while remaining a viable pass catcher.

White as your RB1 is an uncomfortable spot to be, but if you can land White as an RB2 without being aggressive versus the wide receiver position, that is a sweet spot to make a bet on his floor paired with a potential efficiency spike.

Aaron Jones

Bye: Week 17

Jones will turn 30 during the upcoming season and is coming off a season in which he missed six games due to injury.

Jones suffered a hamstring in Week 1 after posting 127 total yards and 2 touchdowns.

He never got right until late in the season, returning to the lineup on two different occasions only to reaggravate that injury and miss more time.

Jones finished ahead of only Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, and Austin Ekeler in points scored below expectations last season in the red zone.

Jones converted a career-low 4.6% of his red zone opportunities (2-of-44) after setting a new career-low the year prior (13.2%).

He had more touchdowns in the red zone in one playoff game against Dallas than he did over the entire regular season.

Jones becomes an interesting case because, over the past two seasons when his touchdown totals have dropped way off, the Packers favored A.J. Dillon at the goal line.

Jones only has two carries from the 1-yard over the past two seasons while Dillon received eight.

Inside of the 5-yard line, Jones only has eight total runs over the past two seasons while Dillon received 17.

Ty Chandler has a non-zero chance to be involved at the goal line. He converted all three of his runs inside of the 5-yard line for touchdowns last season.

The Vikings have continuously suggested this offseason that Chandler will be involved more.

But Chandler (204 pounds) is a back that is in a similar archetype as Jones physically whereas Dillon’s size is something that coaching staffs can’t help but throw into short-yardage opportunities.

Before 2022, Jones had converted 19-of-34 (55.9%) of runs inside of the 5-yard line for touchdowns.

For an added layer of intrigue, the Vikings are a team that we identified as having a more balanced touchdown rate this season that was undoubtedly influenced by the performance that Alexander Mattison had in that area of the field last season.

There is certainly fragility here, but when Jones was healthy last season, he was still a solid running back.

He closed the season on an absolute tear.

Over the final five games of the season, Jones went over 100 yards rushing in all five of those games. That was the longest streak of 100-yard rushing games in franchise history.

Over that span of games, Jones had an explosive run on 20.6% of his rushes and averaged 4.14 yards after contact per rush.

The Vikings only have Chandler behind Jones, so we could see a higher workload for him than even projected.

Minnesota also has issues at WR3 and will be without T.J. Hockenson to open the season, which opens up a lane for Jones in the receiving game, something he is good at.

Jones stands to be undervalued from a ceiling stance, with the primary concerns of his age and playing alongside a rookie quarterback being largely priced in as an RB2.

Tier 6 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Josh Jacobs
  • Kenneth Walker
  • James Conner
  • David Montgomery
  • Najee Harris
  • Rhamondre Stevenson

This tier of backs is just a stone’s throw from the previous tier, but this group projects to share more offensive opportunities with another back in the offense.

For the most part, those touches are in the receiving game, which makes this group of backs more reliant on rushing efficiency and scoring opportunities to lift their fantasy lines. Many weeks when these backs fail to reach the end zone, their fantasy lines are hollow.

Josh Jacobs

Bye: Week 10

The Packers were aggressive in free agency, shaking up their backfield by signing Josh Jacobs to a long-term deal.

A year after leading the NFL in rushing in 2022, the bottom fell out on Jacobs in 2023.

Jacobs only had five games higher than RB20 in weekly scoring before suffering a quad injury in Week 14 that sidelined him for the remainder of the season.

He had a career-low season in just about every department as a runner.

From an advanced metric perspective, it was even worse than it looked in the counting stats department.

Out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes in the regular season, Jacobs only bested Kareem Hunt in the rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards. His 3.9% explosive run rate was by far the lowest rate of his career.

The only running back on the same list to have a lower rate of runs gaining a first down or touchdown was Dameon Pierce.

The only running backs with a lower rate of yards after contact per carry were Pierce, Hunt, and Jamaal Williams.

Going back to the last offseason, I was concerned about Jacobs coming off a season in which he led the NFL with 393 touches.

Here is what I wrote about Jacobs coming off his robust 2022 campaign:

“Over the past 10 years, Jacobs is just the 13th running back to clear 375 touches in a season. Just one of those running backs came back and scored more PPR points per game in the following season. Just three matched their per-game touch totals.

Going back to 1992, there have been 71 seasons in which a back has cleared 375 touches.

67.7% of those running backs had a decline in points per game the following season with an average loss of -2.7 points per game. 77.5% of those backs averaged fewer touches per game the next season with an average loss of -3.2 touches per game.”

Jacobs had one of the steepest declines of that group.

There is a thin line in doing what Derrick Henry has done for his career.

There is a level of concern that Jacobs’ 2022 season ends up like DeMarco Murray’s 2014 season.

Jacobs just turned 26 a month ago, so we should have runway left for him, but he has just one great season surrounded by RB2-caliber campaigns.

The other component here is that Jacobs has been more of an RB2 for his fantasy career while getting immense volume.

The Packers drafted MarShawn Lloyd in the third round, who was one of my favorite backs in this class.

Regardless of what I think about Lloyd, Matt LaFleur has already openly come out and stated that he is “a big believer that you need multiple running backs to carry the ball.

With the Raiders, Jacobs did not play on third downs, something we are already expecting Lloyd to do.

But Jacobs also did not share touches despite that.

Jacobs has averaged 69.7% of his team rushing attempts per game played for his career to this point.

Last year before injury, that rate was 77.5%.

Over his five years with Green Bay, LaFleur has had a running back account for 75% or more of the team runs just five times in a regular season game. Just 14 times over those 83 games has a back had two-thirds of the team runs in a game.

Now, Jacobs was not a part of those teams, but we are betting that Jacobs does not have as large of a backfield share in Green Bay as the one he had with the Raiders, which means we are now betting on the new environment generating efficiency and scoring opportunities that cover the reduction of touches.

**INJURY UPDATE***

With MarShawn Lloyd expected to open the season on IR and miss the opening four weeks, Jacobs has the initial runway to distance himself and start the year hot.

Green Bay plays a host of viable offenses over the opening half of the schedule to push the scoreboard.

Jacobs would be someone that you target for opening production and then sell off as the season progresses and Lloyd works himself back.

Kenneth Walker

Bye: Week 10

After turning 255 touches into 1,215 yards and 9 touchdowns over 15 games as a rookie in 2022, Walker turned 248 touches into 1,164 yards and 9 touchdowns over 15 games last season.

Walker had a dip across the board in nearly every efficiency metric as a rusher, going from 4.6 YPC as a rookie down to 4.1 YPC last season. His explosive run rate went from 12.7% down to 11.0% last season.

That was not all his fault as we covered the offensive line issues for Seattle when discussing the issues that plagued Geno Smith last season.

After averaging 1.45 yards before contact per rush as a rookie, Walker averaged 1.20 yards before contact per run last season.

Walker’s rookie season and year two look eerily similar to how Najee Harris opened his career.

Harris lost immediate snaps in year two (and then again in year three), something that happened to Walker when Seattle added Zach Charbonnet.

Charbonnet already carved into a third-down role in the offense as a rookie, playing 122 third downs compared to 35 for Walker.

Walker is a more explosive back than Harris is to give him added outs on fewer opportunities, but also may never run into enough three-down usage to be a consistent RB1.

Through two seasons, Walker is averaging 19.8 points per game in weeks with a touchdown as opposed to just 8.6 points per game in his weeks without a score.

James Conner

Bye: Week 11

Conner anchored the run game with one of the most efficient seasons of his career.

Among 49 running backs to have 100 or more rushes in 2023, Conner ranked:

  • 4th in EPA per rush (0.07)
  • 6th in success rate (43.3%)
  • 6th in yards per carry (5.0)
  • 4th in the rate of runs for 10 or more yards (14.9%)
  • 6th in the rate of runs to result in a first down or touchdowns (27.4%)
  • 2nd in yards after contact per rush (3.93)

Conner averaged 5.1 yards per touch, his highest rate since 2018.

Of course, Conner also missed four games.

He has now missed multiple games in all of his seven NFL seasons.

Over the four weeks that Conner missed in 2023, Arizona running backs were 21st in the league in EPA per rush (-0.19) and 20th in success rate (34.3%).

Their lack of viable depth paired with the consistent absences of Conner led them to draft Trey Benson as the second running back off the board in the third round this spring.

As was the case with Kyren Williams and the Rams adding Blake Corum, the addition of Benson is a potential solution on multiple fronts for the Cardinals.

While Benson could just be an ancillary component to this offense before ramping up for a lead role in 2025, his addition does cut into Conner’s projected work while Conner himself is a strong bet to miss games.

When Conner played last season, he accounted for 72.9% of the backfield touches.

That would have made him fourth among all running backs last season.

David Montgomery

Bye: Week 5

Montgomery turned 235 touches into 1,132 total yards and a career-high 13 touchdowns in his first season with the Lions.

Montgomery has now gone over 1,100 total yards in all five of his NFL seasons.

We already showcased how Montgomery split work close to evenly with Jahmyr Gibbs when both were together down the stretch.

Detroit RBs From Week 10 On

Running BackSnapsTouchesScrimmage YardsTDs
Gibbs3381306979
Montgomery2411356817

The only element in play for Montgomery was that his ceiling was not as high as Gibbs' while being tied into touchdown production at a higher degree.

Montgomery was a fantasy RB1 in just one of those final nine games of the season.

37.6% of his fantasy points were solely from touchdowns (fourth among all running backs) while Gibbs was at 27.3%.

We also did highlight that Monty had an edge over Gibbs near the end zone and this offense has regularly utilized their backs near the paint.

With a sturdy offensive line and a great schedule layout, Montgomery can still be a better touchdown-driven asset than most backs of that archetype end up being.

But the real thing holding up Montgomery’s fantasy upside is that his contingency value is supreme.

His weekly ceiling was not as high as what we saw from Gibbs when he led this backfield, but any time we have had a true RB1 in Detroit under Ben Johnson, that player has been a fantasy stud.

When Gibbs missed Week 5, Montgomery scored 20.9 PPR points, accounting for 72.4% of the backfield touches and seeing a season-high six targets.

Najee Harris

Bye: Week 9

Harris has gone over 1,200 total yards with 8 touchdowns in each of his first three seasons in the NFL.

But his touches have also decreased in all three seasons.

Harris has gone from 86.4% of the backfield touches as a rookie in 2021 to 67.7% in 2022 and 57.3% last season.

Harris has only averaged 4.2 yards per touch over his three seasons, and the Steelers just declined his fifth-year option.

While those are concerning elements, this Pittsburgh running game should be the focal point of the offense under Arthur Smith paired with the lack of quality pass catchers.

Over his five seasons with Atlanta and Tennessee, Smith’s backfields combined for 538, 508, 459, 501, and 415 touches in those seasons.

While Harris has given up ground to Jaylen Warren, it was still Harris who controlled the scoring opportunities.

Harris out-touched Warren 45 to 22 in the red zone and 22 to 9 inside of the 10-yard line.

Rhamondre Stevenson

Bye: Week 14

After amassing 1,461 total yards on 279 touches in 2022, Stevenson only managed 857 total yards on 194 touches before being shut down for the final five weeks with an ankle injury.

After averaging 5.0 and 5.2 yards per touch in his first two seasons in the league, Stevenson averaged only 4.4 yards per touch in 2023.

Stevenson went from second in the NFL in yards after contact per rush in 2022 (3.81) down to 32nd last season (2.80).

He ranked 42nd out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes in explosive run rate (6.4%) after ranking sixth in 2022 (14.3%).

The New England offense line was a major issue last season, but there was relatively little change in what Stevenson was generating before contact, which is concerning.

Stevenson averaged 1.17 yards before contact per rush in 2023, 1.14 before contact per run in 2022, and 1.30 yards before contact in 2021.

Despite his sturdy contract extension this offseason, we also have to consider that Stevenson could concede a chunk of passing work to Antonio Gibson.

Stevenson has caught a strong number of passes in the NFL, but in a Leonard Fournette-esque fashion, Stevenson has done very little with those catches.

He has averaged just 6.1 and 6.3 yards per catch over the past two seasons.

Gibson has increased his receptions and yards per reception every season in the NFL.

We are going to need Stevenson to retain his long down and distance role, something that he may have held out of necessity given his competition for that role the past two seasons.

If we lose out on that, that is a major issue since New England is already projected to compete for the No. 1 pick next season, plays the hardest schedule in the league, still has question marks on their offensive line, and does not project to score many points.

While the cost of Stevenson is more than affordable, it feels like we are attempting to thread a tight needle with all of the potential hang-ups.

Tier 7 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Jonathon Brooks
  • D’Andre Swift
  • Tony Pollard
  • Nick Chubb
  • Zack Moss
  • Devin Singletary
  • Raheem Mostert
  • Brian Robinson
  • Zamir White

While the previous tier of backs has a few red flags, their projected workloads are relatively safe outside of injury.

That cannot be said for this next group.

There is a bull case to make for each of these backs finding significant work and being underpriced this summer, but also a trap door is in place for each of them to have a low floor.

Jonathon Brooks

Bye: Week 11

Brooks was buried behind both Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson during his first two years at Texas, but he excelled when allowed to carry the workload this past year for the first time.

Only one running back in this class had fewer career touches in college than Brooks does.

Brooks only logged 64 total touches over his first two seasons but was impressive with 7.0 and 7.3 yards per touch on those plays.

Ramping that touch-sample up to 212 opportunities this past season, Brooks still sustained a gaudy 6.7 yards per touch, producing 1,425 yards to go along with 11 touchdowns.

Brooks rushed for 6.2 yards per carry against heavy boxes (third in this class) while 54.5% of his runs came against those fronts.

I believe Brooks was the best running back in this class, and Carolina made him the first running back selected in the draft this spring.

But Brooks is also returning from a torn ACL in November.

Brooks did check in at 6-foot and 216 pounds at the NFL Combine, but that injury prevented him from doing any physical drills.

Brooks is more of an end-of-season bet as an upside RB2/bench player, but we know that Dave Canales wants to run the football, the team invested in the offensive line, and both Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard are fragile incumbents.

His situation is not overly appealing at first blush, but we just saw what Breece Hall did in an offensive dystopia to close last season returning from his ACL injury.

While Brooks may not be the league-winner that Hall was to close last season coming off his ACL injury, he should be playing his best to close the season.

D’Andre Swift

Bye: Week 7

Swift set career-highs with 268 touches and 1,263 yards with the Eagles last season.

After failing to rush for more than 617 yards in any of his first three seasons in Detroit, Swift ran for 1,049 yards in his first season in Philadelphia.

Swift had a 42.8% success rate rushing, which ranked seventh out of 49 running backs to run the football 100 or more times.

More importantly, Swift stayed healthy for the first time in his career.

He played a career-high 630 snaps and only missed the final week of the regular season due to rest.

If there were nits to pick with Swift last season, he did have a career-low explosive run rate (9.6%) while his yards after contact per carry (2.42) ranked 45th among that same group of running backs.

Both Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert should stay involved to a degree, but Swift has a strong look at being a lead back in an offense we believe is ascending.

The potential setbacks stem not only from Johnson and Herbert cutting into more work than expected but Swift’s pass-catching and scoring role still being compromised for fantasy output.

Swift averaged a career-low 2.4 receptions per game last season, something that could be impacted by Caleb Williams extending plays while joining another loaded passing game.

Even if Williams is willing to check down, can Swift jump any of D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, or Cole Kmet on the target tree?

Swift does not have to be concerned about the “tush push” here, but Williams was also excellent as a runner in the read option game near the end zone in college, something that can impact Swift’s touchdown totals again.

Williams led this draft class with seven of his 11 rushing touchdowns in 2023 coming inside of the five-yard line.

Tony Pollard

Bye: Week 5

Pollard was one of the larger fantasy letdowns in 2023.

He ended the season as the RB23 in PPR points per game (13.1) and the RB14 in overall scoring after he closed 2022 as the RB9 in points per game (15.6) and RB8 in total scoring output.

Despite amassing a career-high 307 touches, Pollard’s new role as a workhorse back produced a career-low 4.3 yards per touch and 6 touchdowns.

His previous career-low in yards per touch was 4.9 yards in 2020.

Among 49 running backs to run the football 100 or more times last season, Pollard ranked:

  • 23rd in success rate (37.3%)
  • 25th in rate of runs to result in a first down or touchdown (22.2%)
  • 34th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (8.3%)

Pollard had tightrope surgery for a fractured foot in the offseason, something that he said limited him from feeling right until Week 11.

If we are taking his word, there was an improvement to close the season.

From Week 11 on, Pollard ranked in those same categories:

  • 12th in success rate (41.0%)
  • 12th in rate of runs to result in a first down or touchdown (24.8%)
  • 25th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (9.4%)

The real notes here for Pollard in terms of future fantasy outlook is that he trading in a workhorse opportunity in one of the best offensive environments in the NFL for a potential timeshare (at least to a larger degree than he had in 2023) in a situation littered with question marks.

Dallas averaged a league-high 30.1 points per game in 2023.

Tennessee averaged 17.9, which was 27th.

This Titans offense is going to be much different moving forward with the departure of Derrick Henry paired with the addition of Brian Callahan as head coach, but there is zero doubt that what Dallas has currently built on offense compared to Tennessee is far more attractive in producing points in 2024.

With Henry, Tennessee ran the football out of 11 personnel just 34.5% of the time (28th in the NFL).

As a byproduct, the Titans ran the football against eight or more defenders in the box on 42.3% of their running back runs, which was the third-highest rate in the league.

With Callahan calling plays in Cincinnati, the Bengals ran the ball out of 11 personnel 64.8% during his tenure, which was second in the NFL only to the Rams.

Over his span with the Bengals, Callahan’s run game ran against loaded boxes for just 33.9% of their running runs (23rd in the league).

For his career, Pollard has averaged 5.2 yards per rush against non-loaded boxes, eighth in the NFL over that span.

On runs out of 11 personnel, Pollard has averaged 4.9 YPC, 13th in the league.

The questions here are whether Pollard can return to his early-career efficiency paired with the potential that he may have squandered his only shot at being a bell cow back in the NFL.

Tyjae Spears not only is more competition than what Pollard had in Dallas last season, but Spears has an overlapping skill set, which could make this a truly muddy situation.

We have already heard new offensive coordinator Nick Holz refer to these backs as “interchangeable”.

That alone makes Pollard a risky investment while making Spears more attractive at a lower cost.

Nick Chubb

Bye: Week 10

After 32 touches for 191 yards (6.0 yards per touch), Chubb suffered a severe knee injury just 18 snaps into Week 2 that forced him to miss the remainder of the season.

Chubb then had surgery on his MCL in September.

Waiting for that injury to heal, he then had a second surgery in mid-November to repair his ACL.

That second surgery will push right against nine months from surgery by the time the start of this season hits.

Cleveland is already preparing to ease Chubb back into the lineup and wait for him to be ready to play.

If looking for some reason to bet on Chubb, if the Browns were truly going to chalk up Chubb’s 2024 season, they could have released him with zero penalties and saved $11 million against the cap for this season.

But instead, they restructured his contract for 2024 with guaranteed money in an effort for Chubb not to push himself back too soon trying to make a run at one more payday in the NFL and making things worse.

Cleveland also has our third-best rushing schedule for 2024 and still fields one of the top offensive lines and defenses in the league.

That said, the Browns still do not know if Chubb will be the same running back again or when he will be 100% back in action this season.

Chubb will turn 29 this December and already suffered a major knee injury in college.

Outside of extreme zero-RB teams and best ball darts, Chubb is just a player that I am going to make beat me, letting other gamers in my leagues take on the risk versus reward that Chubb can bounce back for an RB1 run to close the season.

Zack Moss

Bye: Week 12

Moss is coming off his best season in the league, turning 210 touches into 986 total yards and 7 touchdowns for the Colts.

If Moss can replicate his 2023 efficiency, he is essentially a cheaper version of what the team received from Mixon a year ago.

Zack Moss vs Joe Mixon 2023

PlayerYPCEPA/RushSuccess%Explosive%Stuff%YAC/Att
Moss4.3-0.0640.4%10.4%18.6%2.81
Mixon4.0-0.0636.6%10.5%16.0%2.51

Schematically, Moss also can make a seamless transition.

94.8% of the runs that Moss had in 2023 came out of shotgun, the highest rate in the NFL.

Mixon was eighth at 83.0%.

Now, Mixon was a proven workhorse while Moss has yet to clear 210 touches in an NFL season, but that discrepancy is reflected in Moss’s contract.

The Bengals will also be looking to get Chase Brown more snaps and touches in year two, but this is a veteran roster pushing for Super Bowl contention. I do believe that the Bengals will look at Moss’s experience as a plus in earning opportunities, but will those only be tied to early downs?

Moss has been a sketchy pass protector (lightly) over his career with a limited resume as a pass catcher.

Brown only was used in pass protection for 8 total snaps as a rookie.

Devin Singletary

Bye: Week 11

In part of the efforts to replace Saquon Barkley, the team added Singletary, who was with Brian Daboll in Buffalo when he was drafted.

Singletary does not get a lot of love, but he has gone over 1,000 total yards in each of the past three seasons.

Last year with Houston, he handled a career-high 246 touches for 1,091 yards and 4 touchdowns.

As a runner, Singletary was 26th among all rushers with 100 or more rushes in EPA per rush (-0.07), and 30th in success rate (35.6%).

While his efficiency was still pedestrian, both of those rates were above Barkley's last season.

For as bad as Singletary’s offensive line was in Houston, this one in New York could be worse.

Singletary averaged 1.31 yards before contact per rush last season while Barkley averaged 0.98 yards.

After contact, Barkley averaged 2.91 yards while Singletary averaged 2.85 yards.

But Singletary is objectively trading out a far worse offensive climate going from Houston to New York.

The Texans scored 20.9 offensive points per game (15th) while the Giants scored 14.0 (29th).

Singletary also was never used as an outright workhorse under Daboll in Buffalo.

There is nothing on the current depth chart that looks like a current threat to Singletary leading this backfield in 2024, but Tyrone Tracy Jr. could be a threat to receiving work, which we will need if the Giants' offense overall compromises scoring opportunities.

Raheem Mostert

Bye: Week 6

At age 31, Mostert set career highs with 234 touches, 1,187 total yards, and 21 touchdowns.

The only running backs to ever score more touchdowns in a season at age 30 or older were Priest Holmes in 2003 (27 touchdowns at age 30) and John Riggins (24 scores at age 34) in 1983.

The initial plan for Mostert to get as much work as he did last year was likely much lower than the outcome, but Miami dealt with players in and out of the lineup in their backfield all season long.

Mostert himself even missed two games to close the season.

Coming off of back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in Miami, the Dolphins added a year to his contract, which was originally set to expire after this season.

We talked about trying to diagnose the expected usage for the Miami backs earlier with De’Von Achane.

While that is tricky to navigate, I do expect Mostert to be the leading candidate for goal-line opportunities, even though we should expect his total touchdowns to fall.

Mostert scored 18 times on the ground, which was 6.5 times over expectations, but he also was still fourth among all running backs in expected touchdowns.

47.1% of his fantasy points were scored directly via touchdowns.

Not only was that the highest share for a running back in 2023, but it was also the highest rate of touchdown dependency any fantasy RB1 has had over the past 30 years.

That surpassed 2016 LeGarrette Blount, who went from 14.6 points per game that season down to 6.7 in the next.

Mostert should not be expected to have that type of decline since Blount changed teams, but it is hard to bet on replicating the scoring output that he had last season while his overall usage is a question mark with Achane and Jaylen Wright in place to take on touches in the offense.

Brian Robinson

Bye: Week 14

After posting 857 yards and 3 touchdowns on 214 touches as a rookie in 2022, Robinson came back in year two and totaled the same 214 touches but this time produced 1,101 total yards and 9 touchdowns on those opportunities.

Robinson ranked ninth among all running backs with a first down or touchdown on 26.4% of his runs.

A reliable clasher, Robinson converted 69.0% of his short-yardage runs into a first down or score, which ranked 14th among 49 running backs with 100 or more attempts on the season.

Robinson also made a nice jump in the passing game.

After catching just nine passes for 60 yards as a rookie, he caught 36 passes for 368 yards and 4 touchdowns last season.

Washington knows what they have in Robinson, who complements what we are expecting from Austin Ekeler.

We have a very clear potential usage tree here with Robinson doing the grunt work and Ekeler going back to more of a change-of-pace rusher and pass-catching role.

We know Washington is going to try and run the football with Anthony Lynn on board, even with Kliff Kingsbury as the new offensive coordinator.

Kingsbury deservedly took a lot of grief for his initial run as a coach in the NFL with the Cardinals, but one of the most surprising aspects of his run in Arizona was his ability to establish a productive running game despite his notoriety in the passing game before taking the job.

Under Kingsbury 2019-2022, the Cardinals were fifth in the NFL in EPA per rush with their running backs (-0.03) and seventh in success rate (40.3%).

That said, Ekeler has never run the ball more than 206 times in a season. I would wager he lands near or below the 150 rush mark in 2024 unless Robinson misses time.

Robinson only ran a pass route on 29.6% of the dropbacks last season despite his spike in receptions. That rate was 39th at the running back position.

For Robinson, Ekeler thwarts him from extending his role as a pass catcher.

Even in the 2023 season, Robinson was still dependent on reaching the end zone.

Robinson only had three RB1 scoring weeks (two of those were as the top scorer overall).

He averaged 10.0 PPR points per game in his weeks without a touchdown with just two of those seven games scoring double-digit fantasy points.

Robinson finished higher than RB23 in just one of his seven games without a touchdown.

Zamir White

Bye: Week 10

White has a runway to retain the role that he had in the offense to close last season after the Raiders let Josh Jacobs leave via free agency and did not add an early-down option outside of Alexander Mattison.

Over the final four weeks of the season, White closed those weeks as the RB12, RB16, RB16, and RB19 in scoring.

White ran the ball 84 times over that stretch, tied for the league lead.

In the half-season sample with what we saw from Antonio Pierce, we know what he is out to do.

Over their games under Pierce, the Raiders posted a 47.9% dropback rate when leading on the scoreboard, which was 29th in the league.

When trailing, that rate spiked up to 64.6%, which was 18th in the league.

That makes White a fragile volume-based RB2 that is going to be game-script-dependent.

White only caught nine passes over those four games.

Ameer Abdullah out-snapped White 43 to 11 on third downs in those games.

When White was on the field for the Raiders, they ran the football 52.2% of the time.

With Jacobs, that rate was 46.0%.

When leading and White was on the field, the Raiders ran the ball 61.0% of the time.

The only running backs with a higher run rate per snap when leading were Najee Harris (71.0%), Tyler Allgeier (68.9%), Kenneth Walker (63.6%), and Derrick Henry (63.6%).

Only 11 of White’s 93 touches over those games came trailing in the second half while he was outsnapped by Abdullah in those situations.

The Raiders had one quality win versus a real quarterback while Pierce was the interim coach, so there is some concern that they roll over neutral game scripts.

Outside of a win against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, the other quarterbacks that the Raiders beat under Pierce were Tommy DeVito, Zach Wilson, Easton Stick, and Jarret Stidham.

In 2024, the Raiders are 24th in our overall strength of schedule.

Their 6.75 implied win total is ahead of only the Titans, Broncos, and Patriots.

That is problematic for a running back who still stands to concede receiving downs to another back while depending on positive game scripts to keep his volume propped up.

White is a classic back that will look solid based on full-season projections paired with ADP, but should the market overcorrect with Jacobs leaving town, he will be a tough click for any top-down approach to building fantasy rosters.

Tier 8 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Jaylen Warren
  • Tyjae Spears
  • Austin Ekeler
  • Antonio Gibson
  • Chase Brown
  • Ray Davis
  • Jaleel McLaughlin

Our upside tier of “satellite plus” backs.

Nearly all of these backs carry a useful projection of having a role in their offense. The majority are already locked into pass catchers alongside an early-down banger.

There is added contingency value for these backs if any of those early-down backs were to miss time.

This archetype of running back typically has front-end efficiency metrics to go with pass-catching ability.

That said, their career rushing efficiency metrics to this point can be inflated due to the circumstances in which they carry the football.

Most of their career rushing opportunities have come against light boxes or in passing situations. That can make their efficiency to this point tough to extrapolate if given access to full work, something we just experienced with Tony Pollard a year ago.

While there is potential for major upside if any land a three-down role, there is still some top-down fragility that another back on the roster can compromise them getting leading work even with an injury.

Jaylen Warren

Bye: Week 9

Warren doubled his touches from his rookie season (210) for 1,154 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Arthur Smith could not have landed in a better spot to achieve what he looks to set out and do in the running game.

The Steelers were already 31st in the NFL dropback rate in 2023, one spot below the Falcons.

The Atlanta backfield led the NFL with 450 rushing attempts while the Steelers were sixth (404).

We already highlighted that Smith’s backfields in the NFL have averaged 484.2 touches per season over his five years at the front of the offense.

Out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes last season, Warren ranked:

  • 3rd in yards per rush (5.3)
  • 18th in EPA per rush (-0.04)
  • 13th in success rate (40.3%)
  • 3rd in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (16.1%)
  • 19th in rate of runs that failed to gain yardage (16.8%)

The deployment between Warren versus Harris carried a lot of weight in how those efficiency metrics shook out.

Harris ran against light boxes on just 20.8% of his runs, which was 40th among that same group.

Warren was at 30.2%, which was 26th.

38.0% of the runs that Harris had were against eight or more defenders in the box while Warren was at 24.2%.

When Harris was in the game, the Steelers ran the football 54.7% of the time. Only Tyler Allgeier (60.6%), Derrick Henry (58.2%), and Javonte Williams (54.8%) had higher run rates when on the field than Harris.

The Steelers ran the ball 36.9% of the time with Warren in the game, which was 41st among those same 49 running backs.

This is a backfield that worked in unison. The way Harris was used made Warren more efficient and vice versa.

Will Smith do the same?

The way Warren has been used so far has turbo-charged his efficiency but also capped his fantasy ceiling.

Through two seasons, Waren has only three RB1 scoring weeks, all games with a touchdown.

He only has 5 touchdowns through two seasons as Harris once again dominated goal-line work.

Harris out-touched Warren 45 to 22 in the red zone and 22 to 9 inside of the 10-yard line.

Four of those five career rushing scores for Warren have come from 13 yards or further out.

Zero of them have come while Pittsburgh has been ahead in the game.

Warren has the size (215 pounds) to take on more grunt work if afforded the opportunity, something we need for him to take the next step as a fantasy asset.

**INJURY UPDATE***

Warren suffered a hamstring injury in Week 2 of the preseason and is expected to miss 2-4 weeks. That compromises his start to the season and ups his re-injury rate. If splitting ties within this tier, use caution on a player already dealing with an injury.

Tyjae Spears

Bye: Week 5

As a rookie, Spears averaged 5.5 yards per touch, turning 152 touches into 838 total yards and 3 touchdowns.

Year two should open up far more diversity in usage for Spears now that Derrick Henry and the specific usage that he required are no longer on the roster.

Spears and Tony Pollard can do a lot without tipping off the defense in one direction.

Spears faced a lightbox on 41.0% of his runs (second in the league), averaging 5.1 yards per rush on those attempts (15th out of 49 qualifiers) with an explosive run on 17.1% of those carries (ninth).

The Titans only ran the ball 28.8% of the time when Spears was on the field, something that can significantly change moving forward.

Henry out-touched Spears 182 to 73 when the Titans were tied or had the lead.

While Pollard’s addition helps Spears get more rushing opportunities in the base offense, his arrival could also inversely lower his grip on targets before even accounting for the additions of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd.

Spears was third on the team with 70 targets in 2023.

He was sixth among all running backs in team target share (14.6%) overall while Henry only had 36 targets all season.

Spears had a 12.6% target share with the Titans tied or ahead (11th) compared to a 16.7% share when Tennessee was behind (2nd among running backs).

The Titans have already hinted that they view Pollard and Spears as interchangeable players at the position, something that makes this backfield completely nebulous and tougher to predict week-to-week versus other truly compartmentalized backfields.

I have been drafting more of Spears than Pollard because he is the cheaper option, but the gap between the two has tightened over the summer. I will likely always play this situation based on cost, but both of these backs should have each of their ceilings capped with the other in play.

Austin Ekeler

Bye: Week 14

Washington went out in free agency and added Ekeler on a two-year deal to complement Brian Robinson.

The Commanders brought in Anthony Lynn as part of their new coaching staff this offseason as their new running game coordinator.

Lynn had Ekeler from 2017-2020 when he was the head coach of the Chargers and was there as a first-time head coach the year that team signed Ekeler as a rookie free agent.

Ekeler will turn 29 this May and is coming off the worst season of his career.

His 3.6 receptions per game were his fewest in a season since 2018.

After averaging at least 6.2 yards per target in each of his opening five years in the league, Ekeler has averaged 5.7 and 5.9 yards per target the past two seasons.

Ekeler’s 3.9% rate of runs that gained 10 or more yards ranked 47th out of 49 running backs to run the ball 100 or more times during the regular season.

His previous career-low was a 10.7% explosive rate back in 2021.

A couple of things are noteworthy when looking at Ekeler’s 2023 season.

The first is that Ekeler suffered a major ankle injury the first week of the season.

In that same game, Ekeler had 161 total yards on 20 touches.

In that game, Ekeler had two explosive runs on his 16 rushes.

He then missed the next three weeks.

Returning from injury, he had just five runs of 10 or more yards on his final 163 rushes of the season.

Watch Ekeler’s opening game against Miami and then get in the open field later in the season against Green Bay.

That is the same human in the same season.

There is not a complete apples-to-apples overlap, but Ekeler’s 2023 rate stats on the ground look a lot like Jonathan Taylor’s 2022 season when he attempted to play through an ankle issue that eventually forced him to miss the rest of that season.

Ekeler may be on the downswing even if we do not hand out a hall pass for his injury last season, but his skill set does make a solid fit paired with Robinson.

Robinson only ran a pass route on 29.6% of the dropbacks last season despite his spike in receptions.

Ekeler is going to come right in and take over passing work in this backfield.

The rub is that he is going to play with a mobile quarterback that may not check down over scrambling.

That said, Ekeler is also not drawing zero to threaten Robinson’s rushing workload.

This is a player who led the NFL in touchdowns in each of the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

We also touched on Kliff Kingsbury and how his time in Arizona fielded a solid rushing attack.

All of the negatives of Ekeler’s age, going to Washington playing with a mobile passer, and potentially losing goal line work are being priced into his cost this summer.

None of the potential positives are.

This offense is going to play fast, and Ekeler has potential standalone value if he takes on a larger rushing role paired with contingency value should anything happen to Robinson.

Antonio Gibson

Bye: Week 14

The Patriots went out in free agency and added Gibson on a friendly three-year deal with outs as early as next season.

Gibson is coming off a career-low 113 touches last season in Washington, but he did average a career-high 5.8 yards per opportunity on those touches.

With Rhamondre Stevenson signing a sturdy extension, Gibson is clearly in a position behind him.

Outside of handcuff potential, Gibson’s best path to initial value is pushing Stevenson for passing work.

We walked through the potential of that scenario earlier with Stevenson.

After rushing for 1,037 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2021, Gibson has only rushed for 811 yards and 4 touchdowns over the past two seasons, but he remained active as a good pass catcher.

Gibson has increased his receptions from the year prior in all four of his seasons in the league, catching 36, 42, 46, and 48 passes out of the backfield.

New England is projected to be in negative game scripts often this season, something that could open the door for Gibson stacking receptions should he inherit that role in the offense.

Chase Brown

Bye: Week 12

The Bengals will be looking to get Brown more snaps and touches in year two.

Brown was an all-or-nothing producer per touch as a rookie but only had 58 total touches.

He only played 93 offensive snaps, but he received a touch or target on 63.4% of his snaps played, the highest rate of any running back in the league.

When he entered the game, the Bengals had a designed play call for him two-thirds of the time.

Brown is everyone’s favorite dart throw at running back.

He plays in an offense we know has upside and is behind a running back who has never completely led a backfield to his point in his career.

For Brown to maximize his opportunity by cutting Zack Moss’s workload or leapfrogging him on the depth chart, he will have to be a more consistent player.

Brown only had a 25.0% success rate as a runner (81st out of 88 running backs with 25 or more runs), but he also had an explosive run on 11.4% of those rushes (25th).

This was the story for Brown in college.

When he was given a runway, he exploded.

When he was forced to create on his own, he was a zero.

Going back to his 2022 season entering the NFL, Brown forced a missed or broken tackle on just 17.3% of his carries on inside runs, which was 19th in this class. When hit at or behind the line, Brown forced a missed tackle 19.8% of the time, which ranked 16th in that class.

He also will have to earn more reps as a pass protector after only blocking eight times as a rookie.

Moss also has not been good as a pass protector in the pros, which could make Trayveon Williams a wild card in long down and distance situations for this team.

Ray Davis

Bye: Week 12

Davis was everywhere in college.

He produced 1,117 yards and 10 touchdowns as a freshman at Temple back in 2019.

After only playing in seven games over the 2020-2021 seasons due to a toe injury and a COVID season, Davis produced 1,211 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2022 at Vanderbilt before churning out his best college season this past year at Kentucky.

In 2023, he amassed career-highs in total yards (1,452), touchdowns (21) and yards per touch (6.3).

At 5-foot-8 and 211 pounds, Davis has a tweener profile, but James Cook was only 199 pounds at the Combine, something that has prevented him from earning short-yardage opportunities so far in the NFL.

Latavius Murray out-snapped Cook 25 to 13 inside of the five-yard line last season.

Murray also out-snapped Cook 75 to 60 in situations needing 1-3 yards for a new set of downs. Murray out-touched Cook 38 to 32 in those situations.

If Davis immediately takes on those opportunities, he has more than a contingency upside should something happen to Cook.

Davis is also a better pass catcher than Murray was last season, something that could create more of a backfield split than initially assumed if Davis is productive.

He was one of just eight running backs in this class to average more than 2.0 receptions per game in college while ranking sixth this past season among this class with 2.5 receptions per game.

While it is easy to create a runway for Davis, there is also the potential that we end in a Tank Bigsby situation, assuming too much for a player yet to play in the NFL.

One thing that is interesting about Davis is that his college coach last season, Liam Coen, joined the Buccaneers this offseason as their offensive coordinator.

The Bucs had an opportunity to select Davis and instead picked Bucky Irving, a player with a far worse collegiate profile.

Coen may not have had any say in that selection, but it is fair to question if he had any critique of Davis if he was up for consideration.

Jaleel McLaughlin

Bye: Week 14

McLaughlin was a nice find for Denver last season as an undrafted free agent.

He averaged 5.3 yards per touch, turning 107 touches into 570 yards and 3 touchdowns.

He led the team with a 40.8% success rate as a runner, which also ranked 17th among all running backs with 50 or more rushes.

His 15.8% rate of runs for 10 or more yards was fifth on that same list.

McLaughlin had the efficiency-boosting aid of not having to take on a lot of gritty work as a rookie.

36.8% of his runs came against light boxes while Javonte Williams was at 18.4%.

His 2023 season looks similar to what we saw from Jaylen Warren from Pittsburgh as a rookie, but the element that blocks McLaughlin's big picture is that he is much smaller than the other backs mentioned in this tier.

At 5-foot-7 and 187 pounds, it is hard to carve out a clear path for McLaughlin to take over this backfield without multiple injuries.

But at full strength, we know Sean Payton loves to use backs in specific roles.

McLaughlin can be a Pierre Thomas-light if he can get on the field for passing work, something he did not do as a rookie due to his limitations in stature hindering pass protection.

He only played six downs in pass protection all season.

All of that puts McLaughlin on the bottom of this tier for me, but if Denver releases Samaje Perine over the summer, the year-two back gains more intrigue.

Tier 9 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Ezekiel Elliott
  • Gus Edwards
  • Javonte Williams

This short tier of backs is not far off from the Tier 7 backs, but this group takes more initial faith for top-down touches in their offense while lacking a strong case to be made for their ceilings even if they do hit.

Each also comes with plenty of fragility overall in bottoming out.

Ezekiel Elliott

Bye: Week 7

Elliott meant so much to the Cowboys that they now have two different contracts of his on the books for the 2024 season.

He took a year away from the Cowboys, averaging only 4.1 yards per touch with the Patriots.

He has rushed for more than 4.0 yards per carry just once over his past three years in the league.

We should anticipate that Rico Dowdle will play a larger role in the offense in 2024, but the Dallas depth chart is thin while Elliott should be the best bet to receive goal-line looks for one of the highest-scoring teams in the league, which now has a worse defense.

Elliott had 16 rushes inside of the five-yard line with Dallas back in 2022, which was third in the NFL.

Tony Pollard had 13 such rushes a year ago, which was eighth in the league. Pollard was fifth among running backs in expected rushing touchdowns (11.0), opening the door for Elliott‘s scoring chances.

That said, we should expect scoring regression for the Cowboys this season while they may not be completely done adding another piece to this backfield before the season.

Gus Edwards

Bye: Week 5

Edwards is reuniting with Greg Roman with the Chargers.

Since Edwards entered the NFL in 2018, there have been 44 running backs with 500 or more rushes.

On his 699 runs, Edwards ranks among that group sixth in yards per carry (4.9 ), 12th in rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (11.6%), and first in the lowest rate of runs that fail to gain yardage (11.4%).

Edwards has also converted 74.0% of his short-yardage runs (needing 1-3 yards) over his career, first in the league.

Edwards is coming off a career season with the Ravens.

Boosted by another injury to J.K. Dobbins early in the season, Edwards set career highs in touches (210), total yards (990), and touchdowns (13).

The Chargers depth chart is thin at running back behind Edwards.

His primary competition early on will be Dobbins coming off an Achilles injury and rookie Kimani Vidal, who was selected in the sixth round.

While Edwards is the clear favorite here, he also will be 29 and has been used as a compartmentalized back for the majority of his career, including conceding passing downs to Justice Hill a year ago.

Edwards has cleared 153 touches just once over his five seasons with a max of 210 coming last season.

He has never played 70% of the offensive snaps in any career game and has hit 60% of the snaps in just five of his 76 career games played.

One of the most touchdown-sensitive backs for his fantasy career, Edwards has reached double-digit PPR points in just three games in which he failed to reach the end zone.

Edwards scored 42.7 fantasy points from the 1-yard line alone, which trailed only Jalen Hurts.

Those rushes from exactly one yard away accounted for 48.5% of Edwards’ total red zone points.

He converted all seven of his carries from the 1-yard line for touchdowns.

No other running back with more than three runs from the 1-yard line converted all of them for touchdowns while running backs in total converted 52.5% of those rushes for scores.

Before last season, Edwards had converted 5-of-8 career rushes from the 1-yard for touchdowns.

Overall, Edwards converted 12-of-19 rushes (63.2%) inside of the 5-yard line for touchdowns last season after converting 5-of-17 (29.4%) for his career entering the season.

If you are in non-PPR formats, he gets a boost as a touchdown-driven fantasy asset.

Javonte Williams

Bye: Week 14

Returning from a torn ACL, LCL, and PCL in 2022, Williams was not the same player last season that he was to open his career.

Williams averaged a career-low 3.8 yards per touch, turning 264 opportunities into 1,002 total yards and 5 touchdowns.

No running back with as many touches as Williams averaged fewer yards per opportunity.

The only running backs with 100 or more touches to average fewer yards per touch were Miles Sanders, Kareem Hunt, Dameon Pierce, and Jamaal Williams.

Out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes, Williams ranked:

  • 25th in the rate of runs to gain 10 or more yards (9.7%)
  • 37th in yards after contact per rush (2.71)
  • 40th in EPA per rush (-0.17)
  • 41st in yards per carry (3.6)
  • 43rd in yards before contact per rush (0.86)
  • 44th in success rate (30.0%)

A tackle-breaking machine exiting college and early in the pros, the 2.71 yards after contact per rush was the lowest rate of his early-career sample.

After forcing a missed tackle on 31.6% of his rushing attempts before injury, Williams only forced a missed tackle on 15.7% of his rushes last season.

Williams will only turn 24 years old this April and will be a full year-plus removed from his injury, but also enters this season in the final year of his rookie contract while Denver has a host of bodies to push for snaps.

Sean Payton has never been shy about using multiple backs.

We could see Audric Estime immediately push Williams for early down work if he does not regain his early-career form.

Tier 10 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Trey Benson
  • Zach Charbonnet
  • MarShawn Lloyd
  • Blake Corum
  • Kimani Vidal
  • Tyler Allgeier
  • Kendre Miller
  • Ty Chandler
  • Rico Dowdle
  • Tyrone Tracy Jr.
  • Khalil Herbert
  • Roschon Johnson
  • Jaylen Wright
  • Bucky Irving
  • Audric Estime

We are now into the handcuff and largely pure contingency portion of the position.

We have a large number of rookie backs that could carve out roles in the base offense for their organization, but not many of these backs have much standalone value to lean on entering the season, meaning we are going to need some doors opened along the way through injuries or lackluster play from their incumbents.

Trey Benson

Bye: Week 11

Benson stands out as the best bet for contingency value because James Conner has never played a full season in the NFL.

Benson also joins one of the most surprising rushing attacks from a year ago.

The running game was the bright spot of this offense in Drew Petzing’s first season as offensive coordinator.

As a team, Arizona was sixth in the NFL in EPA per rush (0.02) and second in the league in yards per carry (5.0).

Benson logged back-to-back seasons with over 1,100 yards at Florida State after transferring from Oregon. He scored 24 touchdowns in the past two seasons.

At 6-foot-2 and 216 pounds at the NFL Combine, Benson then ran a 4.39 forty (a 94th percentile speed score) paired with a 62nd percentile explosion score in the jumping drills.

Playing behind a limited offensive line, Benson was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 46.2% of his rushes in 2023. That was the fourth-highest rate in this draft class per Sports Info Solutions.

That gives him somewhat of a hall pass, but Benson ranked 15th in this class in yards after contact per carry (3.1 yards).

He ranked 14th in missed tackle rate per rush (21.8%) and 25th in rate of runs to result in a first down or touchdown (24.4%).

On inside runs, Benson averaged 2.2 yards after contact per rush, second to last in this class.

Just 21.2% of those inside runs resulted in a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate of this class.

On outside runs, he averaged 3.5 yards after contact per rush, which was eighth.

Benson’s measured speed does show up in games. He can hit home runs and, as noted, received the majority of his runs on the perimeter.

59.3% of Benson’s rushing yardage in 2023 came on breakaway runs, which was the third-highest rate in this class.

Zach Charbonnet

Bye: Week 10

As a rookie, Charbonnet turned 141 touches into 671 yards and a score.

Charbonnet already carved into a third-down role in the offense as a rookie, playing 122 third downs compared to 35 for Walker. With DeeJay Dallas now gone via free agency (Dallas played 52 third downs), Charbonnet can extend that role even further.

But with Walker on the field, Charbonnet was limited as an ancillary piece of the offense, with his fantasy value tied to whether or not Walker was available.

Walker out-rushed Charbonnet 13-to-2 inside of the 5-yard line in the games in which both played.

When Walker missed nearly all of Weeks 11-13, Charbonnet accounted for 75%, 85.7%, and 95% of the backfield touches.

In the other weeks, he accounted for 26.7% of the backfield touches, hitting double-digit opportunities in three of those 13 games with a high of 10.

Blake Corum

Bye: Week 6

Corum’s initial role is intriguing to see if he is more than a handcuff bet or a player that is going to cause a true split with Kyren Williams.

We already highlighted the injuries that Williams had early in his career paired with his size constraints, but Corum’s actual split in this offense could be overstated for having fantasy relevancy without another injury to Williams.

With Williams off the field last season, the backup running backs for the Rams were 25th in the NFL in EPA per rush and dead last with 3.3 yards per carry.

Corum may kill two birds with one stone as a viable way to reduce the workload for Williams without giving up a ton of efficiency like a year ago when every non-Williams back touched the football.

We have seen previous Rams rookie backs such as Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers take time to carve out touches in the NFL, and they were selected with higher capital than Corum was. Those backs were also fighting for touches alongside Malcolm Brown, not only each other.

That said, any time a Rams running back has been a bell cow, that player has thrived for fantasy, giving Corum significant value as a reserve should Williams miss any time.

There have been 66 games under Sean McVay in which a running back has gotten 60% of the team rushes.

In those games, those backs have averaged 19.3 PPR points per game with a 55% hit rate as an RB1 scorer in weekly output.

I similarly view Corum as someone like Brian Robinson coming out of college. He may not be electric, but coaches are going to view him as a reliable player.

This is also one of the few NFL landing spots where Corum could land and rival the incumbent back from a physical profile.

He was 5-foot-8 and 205 pounds at the NFL Combine. He participated in every drill outside of the broad jump and logged a 67th-percentile athletic score.

Corum only registered a 40th percentile speed score (4.53 forty) which backed his lack of explosive runs, but he stood out with an 88th percentile agility score.

MarShawn Lloyd

Bye: Week 10

Lloyd finds himself in a spot to fill a void left over by Aaron Jones, a player he very much resembles entering the league.

Josh Jacobs has conceded third downs and long down and distance work in the past, and Matt LaFleur has talked up the importance of using multiple backs this offseason.

Those are solid signals that Lloyd is part of Green Bay’s offensive plans, but it remains to be seen just how many opportunities Lloyd is truly getting since Jacobs will be the clear lead option.

Lloyd was arguably my favorite runner in this class, but he takes a step of faith in terms of opportunities.

He did not have more than 129 touches in any season at South Carolina and then USC.

His 11.6 touches per game this past season ranked 24th in this class.

But the good for Lloyd in 2023 was really good.

He led this draft class with 8.2 yards per touch in 2023.

66.1% of his runs did come against light boxes (fourth highest in this class), but he led this class in yards per carry against seven or more defenders in the box (7.1) as well.

Lloyd forced a missed tackle on a class-high 37.1% of his rushes a year ago.

Lloyd was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 41.4% of his runs (5th highest) behind a banged-up offensive line.

When hit at or behind the line of scrimmage, Lloyd rushed for a class-high 2.9 YPC.

When he was allowed a clear lane, Lloyd also rushed for 10.0 YPC on runs in which first contact came beyond the line of scrimmage, which only trailed Jaylen Wright.

Where Lloyd takes some squinting in terms of extended opportunity versus his limited collegiate resume, he also had some issues in pass protection.

He only played 35 snaps in pass pro but allowed an 8.6% pressure rate on those plays, which was 25th in the class.

**INJURY UPDATE**

Lloyd suffered a hamstring injury in the first preseason game.

Expected to open the season on IR, Lloyd would miss the first four games of the season.

This moves Lloyd to only an option for Zero-RB rosters in deep formats since he will require an IR spot himself to open the year.

In shallow rosters without an IR, he is someone to monitor picking up a few weeks into the season.

Kimani Vidal

Bye: Week 5

Vidal was selected with lower-end draft capital in the sixth round, but he joins a backfield that has lighter competition with Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins ahead of him on the initial depth chart.

Edwards will be 29 this April and has cleared 153 touches just once over his five seasons with a max of 210 coming last season.

Dobbins will still only be 26 this December, but he has been completely snakebit over the start of his career and is a roll of the dice at this stage.

Dobbins has appeared in just nine games since his rookie season in 2020.

He tore his Achilles in the season opener last season after missing nine games in 2022 with a knee injury and all of the 2021 season with a torn ACL, LCL, and meniscus.

We know that the Chargers are going to run the football.

When Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman were together in San Francisco from 2011-2014, the 49ers were 30th in the NFL in dropback rate (54.0%) and 31st in passing plays per game (30.7).

Vidal is a workhorse who stacked touches and yardage in college.

In 2023, Vidal was second in the country last season with 1,661 rushing yards and led college football with 295 rushes.

Vidal increased his touches every season in college.

At 5-foot-7 and 213 pounds, Vidal also showed up with an 81st percentile athletic score at the NFL Combine, being one of the few backs to participate in all drills.

58.6% of Vidal’s runs were inside runs, which was the third-highest rate in this class.

He also was hit at or behind the line on 44.4% of his runs, which was the fourth-highest rate in the class.

On those runs, he was fourth in the class in yards per carry (2.1) and forced a missed tackle on 31.1% of those runs (third in the class) when hit at or behind the line.

Tyler Allgeier

Bye: Week 12

Allgeier posted 876 yards and 5 touchdowns of his own on 204 touches in 2023 even after Atlanta added Bijan Robinson with premier draft capital.

That said, Allgeier went from 44.5% of the backfield touches in 2022 down to 37.9% in his second season.

That is a trend I expect to continue as the new regime gets Robinson more work in his second season.

Allgeier is still one of the better contingency backs to take a shot on as a potential arbitrage for teams that miss out on their one shot to draft Robinson in fantasy drafts.

Kendre Miller

Bye: Week 12

The Saints selected Miller in the third round last year to infuse some explosion in the run game.

This was a team that had zero runs of 20 or more yards from their running backs in 2023, the only team in the NFL without one.

Miller was snakebit as a rookie.

He injured his knee in August and then suffered an ankle injury in the middle of the season.

By the time the dust settled, he played just 112 offensive snaps, turning 51 touches into 273 yards (5.4 yards per touch).

Alvin Kamara is at the age cliff and has been a declining rusher, as we highlighted earlier.

While Miller is an intriguing player should Kamara miss any time, he runs into similar issues that Kamara has even if that happens.

Even if there is a situation where Miller is operating as the lead back for a stretch of the season, he will have to contend with Taysom Hill poaching scoring chances. We could also see Jamaal Williams get involved in some capacity in short yardage under that premise.

Ty Chandler

Bye: Week 6

The Vikings have Chandler as support for Aaron Jones, who will turn 30 this December.

Chandler also closed the 2023 season on a positive note, ending his second season in the NFL with 123 touches for 620 total yards (5.0 yards per touch) after having just six touches as a rookie.

Chandler ranked 14th out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushes in EPA per rush (-0.03) and 19th in success rate (38.0%).

Rico Dowdle

Bye: Week 7

Dowdle should compete for touches alongside Ezekiel Elliott.

After only seven touches through two NFL seasons, Dowdle climbed up to 106 touches for 505 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2023 behind Tony Pollard.

You have to go back to Dowdle’s senior season in high school to find a year in which he posted over 1,000 yards from scrimmage, so he takes a leap of faith, even if you are down Elliott’s chances of handling a high workload.

Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Bye: Week 11

Tracy is a converted wide receiver who can immediately earn a role in the passing game behind Devin Singletary.

He has adequate size for that role at 5-foot-11 and 209 pounds to get more rushing work than a true pass catcher while he stood out at the NFL Combine with a 91st percentile athletic score.

The red flags here are that Tracy is one of the older backs in this class (already 24) while having his best season in his sixth year in college. That best season was also only 848 total yards.

Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert

Bye: Week 7

The Bears have Herbert and Johnson behind D’Andre Swift in an open competition this summer.

Herbert is in the final season of his rookie contract, and Johnson was selected in the fourth round a year ago.

Herbert has been steady whenever given opportunities, but he just has not been able to consistently earn touches.

Since entering the league, Herbert ranks seventh among all running backs in yards per carry (4.9) and 10th in explosive run rate (12.0%).

Johnson handled 115 touches as a rookie, turning those opportunities into 561 total yards and 2 touchdowns.

He was the team’s least efficient rusher, but in his first year in the NFL led the team in snaps on third down and snaps in pass protection.

Jaylen Wright

Bye: Week 6

On brand with their approach to building the fastest roster in the NFL, the Dolphins grabbed Wright in the fourth round of the draft.

Miami already has De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert ahead of him on the depth chart, so it will be hard to project Wright’s opportunity in the offense out of the box.

But both of these backs missed time last season.

Achane is a sub-200 pound back while Mostert is 32, so we do not necessarily need to squint to see something opening up for Wright as early as this season.

At 5-foot-10 and 210 pounds, Wright has the requisite size paired with the tangible explosion to churn out splash plays.

At the NFL Combine, he registered a 91st percentile speed score paired with a 98th explosion score in the jumping drills.

That shows up in his metrics as well.

Wright led this class with an explosive touch on 22.0% of his opportunities in 2023, the highest rate of this class.

51.9% of his rushing yardage came on breakaway runs, which was fourth in this class.

13.9% of his runs went for 15 or more yards, second in this class.

Wright’s 7.3 yards per touch were second in this class.

Turning 21 in April, Wright is also the fourth-youngest running back in this class.

Bucky Irving

Bye: Week 11

Irving was the sixth running back off the board this spring, joining a Tampa Bay backfield that had plenty of issues running the ball in 2023.

We ran through Rachaad White’s struggles as a runner while Chase Edmonds only totaled 63 touches.

The tough part in projecting Irving is that on the surface he looks like a worse version of White in a smaller package.

Irving averaged 4.0 receptions per game for his college career, trailing only New Hampshire’s finest Dylan Laube in this draft class. No other running back in this class even averaged 3.0 receptions per game across their collegiate careers.

As a runner, Irving also has a solid profile, but it is hard to extrapolate that production heading into the NFL due to his size and athletic profile.

Irving averaged 7.6 yards per rush against light boxes (fourth in this class) but dipped down to 5.3 YPC against boxes with seven or more defenders, which sagged down to 12th in this class.

Irving has the benefit of being young and building up a solid pass-catching resume but was in optimal conditions behind the highest-graded offensive line in college and a quarterback who took what was given.

Sports Info Solutions charted Irving as running to the designed gap on a class-low 51.9% of his rushes.

At the NFL Combine, Irving tested in the sixth percentile in athletic score.

At 5-foot-9 and 192 pounds, Irving does not profile as a back that will garner a high workload rushing and he does not have the top-end measured athleticism like say De’Von Achane to offer a trump card to counter being undersized.

Audric Estime

Bye: Week 14

Estime was selected in the fifth round, which makes him a tough blind bet, but he joins a Denver backfield that is helmed by Javonte Williams in the final season of his rookie contract.

Sean Payton has used multiple backs and often has run open competitions for touches, in a similar way that Pete Carroll did in Seattle.

If Williams is no longer the same runner after the injuries that he showed early in his career, then the door opens for Estime to fight for early down opportunities.

Estime is another back that has several positive points paired with potential limitations.

First, the age-adjusted production is strong.

After 1,055 total yards and 12 touchdowns at age 19, Estime came back this season with 1,483 yards and 18 scores on his 227 touches.

Estime also has a size (5-foot-11 and 221 pounds) that can carry a high workload.

He logged 15 or more rushes in 8 of 12 games last season with 18 or more rushes in six of those games.

Estime failed to gain positive yardage on just 12.4% of his runs a year ago, a rate bested by only three backs in this draft class.

Only 30.0% of his 210 runs came against light boxes. Only Blake Corum had a lower rate.

Unlike Corum, however, Estime punished those light boxes. He averaged 7.2 yards per carry against those fronts, which was fifth in this class.

Estime also averaged 6.1 YPC against seven or more box defenders (fourth in the class).

He had 75 rushes with eight or more defenders in the box, trailing only Corum (109).

Whereas Corum only averaged 3.5 YPC on those runs, Estime averaged 5.7 YPC.

One of the potential issues with Estime is the limitations that he could face in terms of a full-time role in the NFL versus one that leaves him dependent on early-down or goal-line production.

Only Kendall Minton and Miyan Williams averaged fewer receptions per game than Estime (0.70) for career production in this class.

Estime also did not help himself by running a 4.71 forty at the NFL Combine, which is a 13th-percentile speed score.

The interesting part about that is that Estime had plenty of explosive plays. His 16.7% explosive play rate per touch ranks seventh in this class.

Estime turned in 591 yards (44.1% of his total rushing yards) on runs of 15 or more yards, which was fourth in this class in 2023.

Going back to Kyren Williams a few years ago (who ran a 4.65), we may have to look into how the Notre Dame strength and conditioning coach is preparing these guys in that drill.

Although he did not run a fast time, Estime did pop for an 88th percentile score in the jumping drills, something that fellow big-back Braelon Allen did not.

Still, even if you are looking to throw out that clocked speed at the Combine compared to his on-field output, that registered forty does not make us feel warm inside.

The only running backs to run a slower time than Estime at the combine that produced an RB2 season or better were LeGarrette Blount and Shaun Draughn.

Tier 11 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • Chuba Hubbard
  • Jerome Ford
  • Elijah Mitchell
  • Dameon Pierce
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire

This is our secondary batch of contingency backs.

The first was made up of early-career players that could have more upside than assumed.

This one is a more established group that has given us something to latch onto so far over their careers to this point, but also some downside that is not overly intoxicating even if they do get full-time work.

Chuba Hubbard

Bye: Week 11

Hubbard took over as the lead-back early in the year and should be the front-runner to keep the seat warm for Jonathon Brooks as he ramps up from his return from his ACL injury.

Hubbard handled a career-high 277 touches for 1,135 total yards and 5 touchdowns last season.

He ranked 26th out of 49 running backs with 100 or more rushing attempts in success rate (37.0%), 31st in explosive run rate (8.8%), and 36th in yards per rush (3.8).

Hubbard has shown that he is a viable back that you can throw touches at, but he is still largely non-descript as a back that is going to elevate an offense.

The Carolina offensive line is improved if you are looking to throw early-season touch opportunities on your roster.

Jerome Ford

Bye: Week 10

Ford also could open the season as the lead back for the Browns as Nick Chubb recovers, but his grasp on that role is more up in the air than that for Hubbard.

The Cleveland run game all but fell apart after Chubb’s injury last season.

Out of 49 backs with 100 or more rushes last season, Ford was 47th in success rate (28.2%).

Ford conceded money touches to the ghost of Kareem Hunt, which forced him to live as an all-or-nothing rusher and chip in as a pass catcher.

To open this season, Ford has better competition in both areas this season while Chubb will inevitably be back.

The Browns have added D’Onta Foreman and Nyheim Hines to this portion of the roster.

Hines missed all of the 2023 season with a knee injury that he suffered in a ski accident.

Hines can play special teams and contribute on passing downs, something that kept Ford afloat last season.

Foreman can be a direct replacement for the role that Hunt had as a short-yardage rusher and push Ford for early-down snaps.

Foreman had a 41.3% success rate with the Bears last season.

Elijah Mitchell

Bye: Week 9

Mitchell is still the favorite to be the primary option for San Francisco should anything happen to Christian McCaffrey.

Mitchell once again battled through multiple injuries last season, only managing 81 touches.

But when he was the next man up in Weeks 17 after McCaffrey left with a small issue and Week 18 when he rested, Mitchell found the end zone in both games.

Dameon Pierce

Bye: Week 14

Pierce completely flatlined last season.

He was so bad in his second season that the team aggressively moved on from him in season and turned to Devin Singeltary full-time.

Pierce struggled with the scheme change, finishing last among all backs with 100 or more rushes in yards per carry (2.9) and success rate (23.4%).

But Pierce is also the only other back outside of Joe Mixon on an offense we are buying into. If Mixon were to miss any time, Pierce would draw another shot.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Bye: Week 6

As quiet as his rookie contract run was, Edwards-Helaire is still with the Chiefs.

With the team no longer having Jerick McKinnon, we may even see Edwards-Helaire find a role as a receiving back with larger potential should Isiah Pacheco miss time.

Receiving ability was the calling card for Edwards-Helaire as a prospect, but he never found footing as a pass catcher over his first four years in the league.

Still, this is an offense where the backup running back can run into usable weeks.

Tier 12 Fantasy Football RBs:

  • D’Onta Foreman, Bye: Week 10
  • Alexander Mattison, Bye: Week 10
  • Dylan Laube, Bye: Week 10
  • Tank Bigsby, Bye: Week 12
  • J.K. Dobbins, Bye: Week 5
  • Trey Sermon, Bye: Week 14
  • Evan Hull, Bye: Week 14
  • Miles Sanders, Bye: Week 11
  • Justice Hill, Bye: Week 14
  • Keaton Mitchell, Bye: Week 14
  • Braelon Allen, Bye: Week 12
  • Kenneth Gainwell, Bye: Week 5
  • Will Shipley, Bye: Week 5
  • Rasheen Ali, Bye: Week 14

Wrapping this up with one bulk set of thoughts, these are the back-end darts to throw in deeper formats.

We already mentioned that D’Onta Foreman could be a direct improvement over what Kareem Hunt gave the Browns as a touchdown-driven scorer and push Jerome Ford while Nick Chubb gets on track to return.

Justice Hill will surely play passing downs for the Ravens and could run into more work should anything happen to Derrick Henry. Keaton Mitchell is unlikely to be 100% to open the season while Rasheen Ali is a late-round rookie.

Jonathan Taylor has missed time in each of the past two seasons. Evan Hull was above Trey Sermon before his injury last year, but Sermon closed the season on a positive note.