The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 4 matchup between the Bills and Saints.
Find a breakdown of every Week 4 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| New Orleans | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5 | Spread | -16.5 | ||
| 15.5 | Implied Total | 32.0 | ||
| 15.7 | 29 | Points/Gm | 34.0 | 4 |
| 30.0 | 25 | Points All./Gm | 23.7 | 20 |
| 68.7 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 68.7 | 1 |
| 61.0 | 17 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 52.0 | 1 |
| 4.4 | 29 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 4 |
| 5.1 | 16 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 21 |
| 38.35% | 24 | Rush% | 49.03% | 6 |
| 61.65% | 9 | Pass% | 50.97% | 27 |
| 46.99% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 48.08% | 28 |
| 53.01% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 51.92% | 5 |
- The Bills are averaging 3.19 points per drive, third in the league.
- The Saints are averaging 1.42 points per drive, 30th in the league.
- New Orleans has allowed 2.68 points per drive, 30th in the league.
- The Bills have 14 plays of 20 or more yards on offense, tied for second in the league.
- The Saints have four plays of 20 or more yards on offense, the fewest in the league.
- New Orleans is one of two teams still without points scored in the first quarter (the Browns being the other) and has been outscored 0-30 in the first quarter.
- The Saints are the final remaining team in the league that has yet to run an offensive play with a lead.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen cruised to a QB5 (23 points) scoring week last Thursday night.
Buffalo was almost overly nonchalant against the Dolphins, as Allen only averaged 4.0 air yards per attempt with a season-low 39.3% of his passes five or more yards downfield.
Only 14.3% of his passes were 10 or more yards downfield after rates of 43.5% and 36% to open the season.
Even so, Allen threw 3 touchdowns and added 25 yards rushing to charge his fantasy production.
Allen has only thrown for 148 and 213 yards the past two weeks.
Allen is always in QB1 consideration.
The Bills are the largest favorite we have seen to start this season, carrying an implied team total of 32 points.
The matchup is excellent, as the Saints have allowed solid weeks to Kyler Murray (18.3 points), Mac Jones (21.8 points), and Sam Darnold (16.7 points).
New Orleans is 29th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.618).
They are 31st in pressure rate (24.5%).
The only minor concern here would be too much of a blowout.
We saw this happen to Allen in Week 2, when they dusted the Jets.
Allen closed that week as QB24 (11.8 points) with little to press.
This is the 12th time that Allen has been a favorite of 14 or more points.
In the previous 11 times, he has averaged 20.7 fantasy points per game, but has been a top-six scorer in two of those weeks.
Spencer Rattler: The Saints opened the season putting up a fight at home, but when they were finally tasked with a tough road trip, the preseason expectations for this team proved to be truthful.
In Seattle on Sunday, Rattler was 28 of 39 for 218 yards (5.6 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
He ended the week QB23 (11.7 points) before letting Tyler Shough soak up some garbage time.
A few more outings like Sunday for Rattler and this offense, and we could be seeing Shough make his move for playing time.
Things do not get any easier this week for the Saints, who are more than two-touchdown underdogs with a team total lower than the point spread.
We don’t have to linger here. Rattler is a back-end option in 2QB formats.
Running Back
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More Week 4 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Seahawks @ Cardinals | Thursday Night Football |
| Vikings vs. Steelers | Sunday -- 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Browns @ Lions | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Panthers @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Chargers @ Giants | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Eagles @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Texans | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Jaguars @ 49ers | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Ravens @ Chiefs | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Packers @ Cowboys | Sunday Night Football |
| Jets @ Dolphins | Monday Night Football |
| Bengals @ Broncos | Monday Night Football |
