Saturday Night Divisional Round DFS Showdown Analysis: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Divisional Weekend’s Showdown for Saturday night features the Ravens visiting the Bills. My thoughts for Showdown are below, and be sure to check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for a full breakdown of Baltimore at Buffalo.

QBs tend to be the most popular Showdown plays, and that will certainly be the case tonight with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. While they tend to go over-rostered compared to their likelihood of being the optimal CPT, this is a situation where I don’t mind being equal to or over the field on either QB.

I am interested in going underweight with the top pass-catchers on each side. Stefon Diggs has had an incredibly high floor, but does face a very tough matchup. Additionally, there are four other receivers involved for Buffalo at much lower exposure. Cole Beasley and John Brown are the only two I’d consider for CPT, but Gabriel Davis is a solid play, and Isaiah McKenzie an MME dart-throw.

I’m also looking to go over the field with Devin Singletary, who should get the majority of RB opportunities with Zack Moss out. If things play out unexpectedly, T.J. Yeldon would likely be the beneficiary. Dawson Knox is the only TE worth serious consideration. He rarely exceeds two receptions and is unlikely to go off, but does produce TDs.

For Baltimore, I’m going underweight with Marquise Brown. He has also been consistent in the latter half of the season and is coming off of a high-ceiling game. I expect Buffalo to limit his production and would rather use Mark Andrews here at a lower salary and similar projection. The other Ravens pass-catchers are all tough-sells, but worth mixing in if fading brown. Willie Snead is a bit overpriced, while Miles Boykin and Dez Bryant are cheap punt-plays. The depth TEs have also been known to catch a TD once in a while.

I am most interested in allocating my ownership to the Ravens’ backfield (rather than Brown). J.K. Dobbins has a slight lead in the backfield and has shown a nose for the endzone, scoring in seven straight. Gus Edwards has been getting enough carries to be in consideration. He is a significantly better value than Dobbins, priced below the kickers, and the matchup is fantastic.

Unlike most QBs, Jackson and Allen don’t need to be stacked, so some of the normal build rules don’t apply here. The kickers are solid values per usual, and the DSTs will be unpopular with the high total and explosive offenses. I will update later with ownership details.

Ownership:

Using projections from Establish The Run, Allen (17% CPT / 72% Total) and Jackson (15% / 71%) will be the most popular.
Diggs (12% / 58%) is the only other above 10% at CPT, with Marquise Brown and Andrews next, near 8%.
The RBs offer good leverage with Dobbins (5% / 30%), Singletary (7% / 37%) and Edwards (3% / 25%). My preference would be Singletary followed by Dobbins.
Any receiver from Beasley and below should offer good leverage over the top options. I like Beasley and John Brown most. Consider one or both of them in place of Diggs for your Allen stacks and Bills onslaughts.

DK Values: