Wild Card Weekend’s Showdown for Saturday night features the heavily favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Washington Football Team. My thoughts for Showdown are below, and be sure to check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for a full breakdown of Tampa Bay at Washington.

There are four injuries to monitor that could make a big difference in your build strategy tonight. Mike Evans, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson are questionable, and Alex Smith has been ruled inactive. Be sure to check for updates to these around 90 minutes to lock before finalizing lineups.

Taylor Heinicke will get the start for Washington. He’s an intriguing play at only $6,000, and there is more uncertainty over his preferred targets than with Smith, who heavily targeted Logan Thomas as well as J.D. McKissic (when trailing). I like the idea of going overweight on the lower-owned WFT pass-catchers, to leverage the uncertainty of where Heinicke’s targets will go.

McLaurin is projecting very well, but he’s also coming off a serious injury that tends to limit WR production. However, he’s likely one of the best in the NFL and has upside in any game. Tonight, I prefer Cam Sims and Steven Sims Jr. at much lower salaries. I also like Thomas, and there is a slight narrative boost to new QBs leaning on TE’s.

If Gibson plays, he is a decent floor play with multi-TD upside, but the game environment is tough. Should Gibson sit, McKissic becomes one of the best plays overall. Consider playing at most one of these guys or at least negatively boosting them. McKissic is better for pass-heavy game scripts and Gibson better when leading.

Tom Brady has had some great performances this season, but struggled against tough defenses like Washington’s. My favorite player to go underweight on is Mike Evans, coming off of a hyperextended knee just last week. I’ll be pivoting to Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski. I’m partial towards Godwin usually, but will rely on ownership projections to dictate my exposures.

The backfield is still split and somewhat unpredictable from game to game between Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette. Jones is generally in the lead and has been more productive, and is my preferred choice.

(UPDATED) Ownership:

  • Brady looks to be most owned with (15.5% CPT / 77.5% total). Five more options are clustered right behind him with Godwin, Jones, McLaurin, Gibson and Brown all between 8-11% CPT.
  • Evans is under 6% CPT / 31% total. If you aren’t worried about the injury, you could go overweight but I will opt to fade him as I still think these numbers are too high.
  • Everyone priced from Gronkowski ($5,800) and below are projected for under 30% total ownership, so going heavy on any will help differentiate especially when using 2+.
  • Both defenses have high ceilings here, though The Buccaneers DST will be owned nearly twice as much. Per usual, I use at most one per lineup.
  • Scotty Miller and Cameron Brate are sub 10% punt options to consider, especially if you think Evans is limited. Steven Sims Jr. looks to be the lowest owned starter (WR3) and could be a great value.

DK Values:

  • Steven Sims Jr. ($1,200)
  • Ryan Succop ($3,800)

DK Leverage:

  • Steven Sims Jr. ($1,200)
  • WFT DST ($3,000)

DK Build Guide:

  • Max 1 DST
  • Max 1 K
  • Max 1 TE from each team
  • Max 1 RB from each team
  • If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
  • Leave salary on the table, especially with chalky CPTs

FD Values:

  • Ryan Succop ($8,500)
  • J.D. McKissic ($9,500)

FD Leverage:

  • Mike Evans ($14,500)

FD Build Guide:

  • No K MVP
  • No TE at MVP
  • No solo CPT in 1-4 construction
  • Focus on 3-2 build construction
  • Max 1 QB (wins nearly 3x as often)
  • Max 1 TE from each team
  • Max 1 RB from each team
  • If WR CPT, boost or force QB
  • Leave salary on the table, especially with chalky MVPs