The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Wild Card Weekend Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team Saturday night game.
| Tampa Bay | Rank | @ | Washington | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8 | Spread | 8 | ||
| 26.75 | Implied Total | 18.75 | ||
| 30.8 | 3 | Points/Gm | 20.9 | 25 |
| 22.2 | 8 | Points All./Gm | 20.6 | 4 |
| 63.6 | 23 | Plays/Gm | 65.7 | 8 |
| 63.9 | 16 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 10 |
| 36.3% | 30 | Rush% | 38.1% | 24 |
| 63.7% | 3 | Pass% | 61.9% | 9 |
| 35.0% | 1 | Opp. Rush % | 42.6% | 21 |
| 65.0% | 32 | Opp. Pass % | 57.4% | 12 |
Against the Spread
Buccaneers: 9-7
Football Team: 9-7
Football Team ATS at Home: 5-3
Buccaneers ATS Away: 4-4
Buccaneers ATS as Favorite: 7-6
Football Team ATS as Underdog: 8-5
Game Overview
This game features the only team in the playoffs with a losing record, but that does not mean there are not intriguing aspects surrounding this game.
For one, it is extremely rare that we ever see a home underdog in the playoffs getting a touchdown or more. It has only happened twice regardless of the round.
The first was in 2010 when a 7-9 Seattle team beat the Saints 41-36 as a 10.0-point underdog. This was the Beast Quake game.
The second was the very next season, when an 8-8 Tim Tebow-led Broncos beat the Steelers 29-23 in overtime as a 7.5-point underdog.
Even lowering the spread down to five or more points for a home underdog, we only get one more game to pop up and that home dog (the 2000 Saints) also won outright, beating the Greatest Show on Turf 31-28 as they were defending a Super Bowl title from the year prior.
Lowering that total to 4-point home dogs, those home underdogs are 6-3 straight up and 8-1 against the spread since the 1970 merger.
We also have the Buccaneers in a primetime slot that has not been kind to them this season. Tampa Bay played in the primetime spot four times this season, going 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread versus the Bears, Giants, Saints, and Rams.
Washington hits the postseason allowing opponents to score on a league-low 22.6% of their possessions from Week 10 on and reach the end zone on a league-low 14.3% over that stretch.
After losing Alex Smith’s first start of the season, Washington has won each of the past five of his starts, although just one of those wins (Pittsburgh) came against a team with a winning record this season.
Offensively, only the Bengals, Broncos, Giants, and Jets scored a touchdown on a lower rate of possessions than Washington (19.5%) this season.
Another component to this game is that these are the two best second-half teams in the NFL with each having a 109-point differential in the second half of games this season, tied for tops in the league.
The Buccaneers have scored on a league-high 55.4% of their possessions in the second half this season while Washington has allowed opponents to score on a league-low 19.3% of their second half drives. Washington has allowed just eight second half touchdowns, the fewest in the league.
Washington has scored on 43.4% of the second half drives offensively. That is only 12th in the league, but in the first half their scoring rate is a league-low 27.5%.
Tampa Bay is allowing opponents to score on 44% of their first half drives (19th), and just 26.4% in the second half (third) of games.
Quarterback
Tom Brady: Brady enters the postseason playing his best stretch of football of the season. Brady has thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven straight games with over 8.0 yards per pass attempt in each of his past five games.
Three of those starts have come against teams in the bottom five of points allowed per pass attempt while Washington ranks second (0.36). On the season, Brady has faced just two other defenses in the top-10 of passing points allowed per attempt. One was the Rams, who he threw for a season-low 4.5 Y/A against while completing a season-low 54.2% of his passes. The other was the Broncos, who he hit for 297 yards and three touchdowns.
We also always are aware of Brady and teams that can generate pressure (especially pressure without blitzing). When kept clean, Brady is completing 71.7% of his passes for 8.3 Y/A as opposed to 43.9% and 5.2 Y/A under pressure. Those drop-offs are 31st and 35th at the position compared to when kept clean.
Washington is sixth in the league in pressure rate (25.6%) despite being 13th in blitz rate (32.4%). That is the highest pressure rate defense the Bucs have faced this season, with five other games coming against teams in the top-10, being the Saints (x2), Broncos, Giants, and Chiefs. Outside of the two matchups with New Orleans, Brady scored 19-plus fantasy points.
Washington has allowed the league’s fewest amount of passing points on throws within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage (0.28 per attempt), but do sag slightly down to 15th against deep passes (0.73). Grain of salt for strength of schedule, but Brady’s deep ball has picked up, attempting a league-high 41 passes on throws over 15 yards downfield from Week 12 on. On those throws, he has completed 56.1% for seven touchdowns, 18.1 Y/A, and a 120.2 rating as opposed to 41.1%, four touchdowns, 11.5 Y/A, and a 76.0 rating prior.
Washington QB: Ron Rivera has come out and suggested that Washington may have to be forced to use a rotation of Alex Smith and Taylor Heinicke Saturday with Smith still dealing with a calf injury that limited his mobility in the season finale. We will see just how accurate that suggestion is, but we know the Buccaneers are going to bring pressure.
Tampa Bay blitzes 39.0% of the time (fifth) and are second in the NFL in pressure rate (26.7%). Washington has faced three teams that are in the top-11 in blitz rate (Ravens, 49ers, and Seahawks) and combined to score a total of four offensive touchdowns on 34 possessions in those games. Smith only started one of those, but also did not generate a touchdown on offense in his start.
Washington enters the playoffs as the 30th ranked team in the NFL in expected points added via passing (-18.3) and one of just six teams to have negative EPA passing in the NFL with the Eagles, Patriots, Broncos, Giants, and Jets.
Running Back
Antonio Gibson: Gibson has returned to the lineup off turf toe with 13 and 20 touches for 69 and 81 yards. Gibson accounted for 32.4% of the Washington offensive touchdowns, which trailed only Alvin Kamara (36.2%) among running backs. He will need to find the end zone here as Tampa Bay allowed a league-low 8.3 rushing points per game and 3.2 YPC to opposing backs.
Washington faced five other teams that ranked in the top-10 in rushing points allowed to backs (LAR, BAL, SF, PIT, and SEA) with their backs rushing 91 times for 293 yards (3.2 YPC) with three rushing touchdowns.
Because Tampa Bay is so good against the run and force teams to be one-dimensional, they faced the fewest amount of rushing attempts per game (16.5) from backfields.
J.D. McKissic: While Washington struggled to run the football against those tougher run-stopping opponents, they targeted their running backs 26.4% of the time in those games. McKissic accounted for 40 of those 55 running back targets, catching 34 passes for 230 yards and a touchdown while having at least six receptions in all of those games but one.
Tampa Bay is excellent versus the run, but did allow 10.9 receiving points per game to opposing backs (28th) and a league-high 6.0 receptions per game to backs.
Buccaneers RBs: With Ronald Jones returning to the field after missing the previous two games, Tampa Bay went back to their mid-season split between him and Leonard Fournette. Jones played 36 snaps to Fournette’s 30. Jones was also back to out-performing Fournette, turning his 12 touches in 78 yards while Fournette had just 27 yards on his seven touches. Jones ended up closing the season averaging 5.2 yards per touch compared to 4.5 for Fournette.
Washington’s front is not Tampa Bay levels versus the run, but they were also strong during the regular season, allowing 3.93 yards per carry to backs (ninth) and just 10.9 rushing points per game (eighth). They were also good against the pass, allowing 7.3 receiving points per game to the position (seventh).
Wide Receiver
Buccaneer WRs: Mike Evans hyperextended his left knee in Week 17. The injury is not expected to be serious and the team plans to have him on Saturday night, but keep tabs on his practice availability throughout the week.
Evans was just hitting his stride this season. Prior to injury, Evans had seen 8.8 targets per game over his previous six games after just 5.8 per game over his first nine games of the season. Evans also is tied for the team lead with 14 end zone targets, converting a team-high eight for touchdowns.
With Evans forced from the game Sunday, we saw Antonio Brown get a season-high 34.2% of the team looks, catching 11-of-14 targets for 138 yards and two touchdowns. Brown has now reached the end zone in each of his past three games. Brown has hit 70 yards in just his two games (both versus Atlanta), but if Evans is limited in any capacity, the addition of Brown is magnified.
Chris Godwin just keeps continuing to churn out solid games. Catching 5-of-7 targets for 133 yards and two touchdowns himself, Godwin had his first 100-yard of the season. He also has scored in each of the past three games and has at least five receptions in nine of his 12 games this season.
If Evans is limited, Scotty Miller also stands to see increased usage. Miller ran a pass route on 39.5% of the team dropbacks in Week 17, his highest rate since Week 8, the last game played prior to Brown joining the team. Miller leads the team in depth of target (16.4 yards) and yards per catch (15.2) if chasing a splash play.
Washington is overall excellent versus wideouts, ranking third in points per target (1.61), fourth in yards per target (7.4), and third in touchdown rate allowed (3.3%) to receivers. But when they have gotten beat, it on the outside and downfield. Only six wideouts posted 20-plus PPR points against Washington this season with those being Marvin Jones, Amari Cooper, Brandon Aiyuk, Diontae Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Curtis Samuel. The only slot option to have success versus them was Tyler Boyd (9-85-0) with just two of their 10 touchdowns allowed to opposing wideouts coming out of the slot.
Terry McLaurin: After missing Week 16 due to an ankle injury, McLaurin played 81% of the snaps in Week 17, catching 7-of-8 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown. It was his first red zone and end zone touchdown all season of the season, previously scoring from 24, 52, and 68-yard catch and runs prior to his 5-yard score. McLaurin has two warts on his resume with Alex Smith as the start in Weeks 13-14 when he had just four catches for 38 yards, but had at least five catches in his four other games with Smith as the starter. Tampa Bay is 21st in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 (15.9), but 48% of those points allowed came over just three games to Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, and Robert Woods.
Cam Sims: Sims has posted double-digit PPR points just once this season, but has shown some life down the end of the season, catching five passes in three of the final five games of the season. Sims has just one touchdown on the season, but is the clear No. 2 wideout for targets behind McLaurin.
Tight End
Logan Thomas: Thomas has put up double-digit PPR points in six straight games. His six targets in Week 17 were his fewest in a game since Week 12, but he was able to secure his sixth touchdown of the season and first since Week 13. Thomas leads the team with 24 red zone targets and nine end zone targets. Tampa Bay has allowed a 71.7% catch rate on targets to tight ends (27th) and a 7.1% touchdown rate to the position (19th) with a touchdown catch surrendered to a tight end in three of their past four games.
Rob Gronkowski: Since acquiring Antonio Brown, Gronk has just 19 receptions, catching two or fewer passes in six of those eight games. While the catches are down, he is getting high-leverage opportunities still, averaging a team-high 15.9 yards per catch over that span while matching Mike Evans with a team-high seven end zone targets (four for scores).
Washington was seventh in yards per target (6.8 yards) and 12th in catch rate (67.0%) allowed to tight ends, but were 22nd in touchdown rate (7.2%) allowed to the position.
More Wild Card Weekend Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
IND at BUF | LAR at SEA | TB at WFT | BAL at TEN | CHI at NO | CLE at PIT
