The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Wild Card Weekend Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints Sunday afternoon game.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | New Orleans | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | Spread | -9.5 | ||
| 18.75 | Implied Total | 28.25 | ||
| 23.2 | 22 | Points/Gm | 30.1 | 5 |
| 23.1 | 14 | Points All./Gm | 21.1 | 5 |
| 65.2 | 12 | Plays/Gm | 65.3 | 10 |
| 63.8 | 12 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62 | 4 |
| 37.7% | 27 | Rush% | 47.3% | 5 |
| 62.3% | 6 | Pass% | 52.7% | 28 |
| 42.9% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 39.3% | 7 |
| 57.1% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 60.7% | 26 |
Against the Spread
Saints: 9-7
Bears: 8-8
Saints ATS at Home: 4-4
Bears ATS Away: 5-3
Saints ATS as Favorite: 8-6
Bears ATS as Underdog: 7-6
Game Overview
The Sunday afternoon game is another overtime rematch from the regular season, as the Saints went into Chicago back in Week 8 and won 26-23.
Since that game, the Saints have been the league’s hottest defense, allowing opponents to score on a league-low 26.7% of their possessions over that span and a league-low 14.9% of their drives ending in touchdowns. Over those nine games, the Saints held six opponents to 16 total points or fewer.
The Bears gained a spark when they transitioned back to Mitchell Trubisky and elevated Bill Lazor to offensive coordinator, but really their entire story orbits their schedule. The Bears were just 1-6 this season against teams with a winning record, the worst record among all playoff teams. They faced just five teams all season long that were in the top-10 in defensive EPA allowed. In those games, the Bears scored 16.2 points per game as opposed to 26.5 points per game otherwise. Trubisky himself only started one of those games and the most points they scored against those opponents (23) did come against this Saints team to leave the door open.
The Saints being this heavy of a favorite in the Wild Card Round is not common. Since the 1970 merger, just 11 teams have been favored by nine or more points in the opening round of the playoffs. Those teams have held steady, going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread. The Saints themselves visiting Seattle in 2010 were the lone loss and one of the failed covers, but also the only road team in that sample.
Quarterback
Drew Brees: Brees threw for just 245.2 yards per game this season, his fewest since 2005. Missing multiple games for the second straight season, Brees also averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt, matching 2014 as his lowest mark since 2010. On a positive end, Brees still posted a 6.2% touchdown rate, which was ninth among all quarterbacks.
Since returning from multiple rib injuries three weeks ago, Brees has thrown three touchdown passes in two of those three games while passing for 311 yards and 12.0 Y/A in the other.
When these teams played in Week 8, Brees threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns, notching 19.6 fantasy points without Michael Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders active.
The Chicago pass defense sagged as the season progressed. Through eight games, Chicago was allowing 6.6 Y/A and 12.4 passing points per game to opposing passers. Over their final eight games, those numbers spiked to 7.9 Y/A and 18.8 passing points per game.
Mitchell Trubisky: Since taking back over as the starter in Week 12, Trubisky has put up thee top-10 scoring weeks paired with three as the QB23 or lower. Of Trubisky’s four QB1 performances this season, they came against teams that are 32nd, eighth, 28th, and 27th in passing points allowed.
The Saints are 13th (14.4), but they are worse where Trubisky is at his best. The Saints are second in the league in passing points allowed per attempt on deep passes (0.43), but are 23rd in points allowed per attempt on passes within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage (0.41). Trubisky was third among all quarterbacks this season with a 106.9 rating on those passes.
The Saints also pressure the quarterback, something Trubisky has not had to deal with often. New Orleans is fifth in the league in pressure rate (25.6%), which will be the highest-ranked team Trubisky has faced and just the second team that resides in the top half of the league in that area, with the other being the Giants (13.2 points).
Running Back
Alvin Kamara: Kamara tested positive for COVID-19 and missed Week 17. With this game being played Sunday, Kamara has a chance to play if he is cleared, but he will have to be quarantined through Saturday and will be unable to practice all week. Kamara certainly knows the offense, but his usage could also come down to how the virus has impacted him.
The Saints would love for that be minimal as Kamara 163 yards on 21 touches when these teams met in Week 8. Kamara caught nine passes for 96 yards as he gave the Bears issues on angle and option routes all game. Chicago also may be forced to be without Roquan Smith Sunday as well, who is dealing with an elbow injury that allowed him to play just nine snaps a week ago.
It will all come down to how Kamara has handled the virus and how he responds, but he is obviously a top-shelf option at his position when on the field.
David Montgomery: Montgomery has hit 20 PPR points in six straight games. He has posted six straight games with over 100 yards from scrimmage and his full-time workload has resulted in 33, 25, and 31 touches over the past three games.
All six of those games have come against defenses that are in the bottom-12 in rushing points allowed per game to backfields. The Saints are fifth (10.4 per game) and eighth in yards per carry allowed to backs (3.87 YPC). New Orleans allowed just 10 touchdowns to backfields, which was tied for second in the league. Montgomery rushed 21 times for 89 yards when these teams played in Week 8, adding two catches for 16 yards receiving.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas: Thomas is expected to be back in the lineup after the team shut him down to close the season due to a recurring ankle injury. In what was just about a lost regular season, Thomas appeared in just seven games. He received 34.2% of the team targets over his five games played prior to being shut down again, but Thomas played just two games in full with Brees under center.
Thomas did not play in the first game between these teams, but he did have 9-131-0 in this matchup a year ago. The Bears allowed 4.9 receptions per game to opposing WR1 (10th) and 62.2 yards (eighth), but eight touchdowns to those options (20th).
Allen Robinson: Robinson is coming off a season-low two receptions last week for just 37 yards. It was just his second game this season with single-digit PPR points. Despite the low output to close the regular season, Robinson still received 31 more targets this season from Trubisky (27.6%) than any other offensive player.
Robinson has hit in two games versus the Saints while with Chicago, catching 6-of-7 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 and 10-of-16 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown when these teams played a year ago.
Emmanuel Sanders: With Thomas on track to return to the lineup, Sanders is impacted the most. In the games that Sanders played with Thomas active this season, he saw 13.7% of the team targets and averaged 8.6 PPR points per game as opposed to 22.4% of the targets and 14.9 points per game in games Sanders played with Thomas inactive. Sanders did still score three of his five touchdowns with Thomas on the field, so there is still touchdown potential for those chasing a score.
Anthony Miller: With Darnell Mooney out this Sunday, Miller will need to have an extended role. One he could have anyways with game script projecting to work against Chicago.
Miller has seven catches for 52 yards over the past four weeks, but did see a season-high 11 targets when these teams met back in Week 8, catching 8-of-11 targets for 73 yards. As a near punt-option, Miller is a deep dart for salary relief if needed.
Tight End
Jared Cook: Cook had double-digit PPR points in four of his past five games, but as usual with Cook, we know what we are getting. Cook is a low-volume asset, seeing 4.0 targets per game and having three or fewer receptions in 12 games, but he is a touchdown asset, leading the Saints with 10 end zone targets and seven touchdown receptions. Cook now has 16 touchdown catches in 30 games played with the Saints after 27 touchdowns in 152 games played to start his career.
In his lone games against the Bears with the Saints, Cook had a 5-51-1 line on seven targets with neither Thomas nor Sanders on the field. Opposing teams targeted their tight ends 25.1% of the time against the Bears, which was second in the league behind only the Saints.
Bears TE: Cole Kmet took over the lead tight end in Week 10, playing 84% of the team snaps and running a pass route on 65.1% of the team dropbacks. Kmet is coming off season-highs with eight targets and seven receptions, although they resulted in just 41 yards. Kmet now has 164 total yards over those seven games as the lead tight end, while Jimmy Graham has 154 yards over the same span on 15 fewer targets and seven fewer receptions. Graham also has more end zone targets (five) to Kmet (zero) over that span.
As mentioned above, opposing teams targeted their tight ends a league-high 25.8% of the time against the Saints. New Orleans stood up to the volume, allowing a 59.5% catch rate (third) and 1.62 points per target (seventh) to the position, but did allow nine touchdowns (25th) on those targets.
More Wild Card Weekend Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
IND at BUF | LAR at SEA | TB at WFT | BAL at TEN | CHI at NO | CLE at PIT
