The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Wild Card Weekend Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans Sunday afternoon game.
| Baltimore | Rank | @ | Tennessee | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | Spread | 3 | ||
| 29 | Implied Total | 26 | ||
| 29.2 | 7 | Points/Gm | 30.7 | 4 |
| 18.9 | 2 | Points All./Gm | 27.4 | 24 |
| 62.1 | 26 | Plays/Gm | 64.4 | 17 |
| 63.6 | 11 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 67.2 | 30 |
| 55.9% | 1 | Rush% | 50.5% | 3 |
| 44.1% | 32 | Pass% | 49.5% | 30 |
| 37.6% | 4 | Opp. Rush % | 39.7% | 8 |
| 62.4% | 29 | Opp. Pass % | 60.3% | 25 |
Against the Spread
Ravens: 10-6
Titans: 7-9
Titans ATS at Home: 4-4
Ravens ATS Away: 5-3
Ravens ATS as Favorite: 8-6
Titans ATS as Underdog: 3-2
Game Overview
Tennessee is in a familiar spot as underdogs to the Ravens. Sunday kicks off with a rematch from Week 11 when the Titans went into Baltimore and won 30-24 in overtime, coming back from a 21-10 deficit. That game featured 729 yards of total offense and just five total punts.
Tennessee also knocked Baltimore out from the postseason a year ago, winning 28-12 in Baltimore.
This matchup features the top two teams in expected points added via their rushing offenses. Nobody runs the football at a higher rate than the Ravens, while the Titans are third. On first downs outside of the fourth quarter, Tennessee leads the NFL in run calls (65%) while Baltimore is second (63%).
Many expected regression from the Titans insanely efficient offense this season, but Tennessee stayed at the top of the leaderboard in a number of areas. The Titans were second in the NFL in points per drive (2.87) and second in red zone touchdown conversion rate (75.0%).
A year after setting an NFL record by scoring on 57.0% of their possessions, Baltimore took a step back to 10th this season at 47.5%, but have hit their stride as of late in resembling the offense they looked like a year ago.
After losing three straight games Weeks 10-12, and suffering the largest COVID outbreak for a team this season, Baltimore has reeled off five straight wins, scoring on 62.5% of their possessions (30-of-48) over that span, which was second in the league over that stretch to close the season.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: After posting just three games with 20 or more fantasy points through eight games played, Jackson turned it on to close the season, scoring 20-plus points in six of his final seven games of the season.
Jackson rushed for at least 50 yards in nine of his final 10 games played, with at least 80 yards on the ground in four of his final five games. That pushed him over 1,000 yards rushing for the second straight season, becoming the first quarterback in league history to have consecutive 1K rushing seasons.
Already stocked with rushing ability, Jackson also gets a favorable matchup through the air when the Ravens do pass. Tennessee struggles to get to the quarterback at all, ranking 31st in the league in pressure rate (17.3%) and were 30th in overall sacks (19) on the year. They closed the year 30th in passing points allowed per game (18.7) and 31st in passing touchdowns allowed (36).
Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill did see regression this season off his hyper-efficient 2019 season, seeing his completion rate (65.5%), yards per pass attempt (7.9 Y/A), and touchdown rate (6.9%) all check in lower than a year ago, but all remained above the base rate for quarterbacks. With that, Tannehill still checked in as the QB10 in fantasy points per game (21.5).
Tannehill had just three QB1 scoring weeks through nine games, but then turned it on to close the season, with five top-7 scoring weeks over his final seven games of the season, averaging 23.8 points per game over that stretch. That includes a 21.9-point game back in Week 11 when these teams met.
That was one of just four QB1 scoring weeks the Ravens allowed on the season as they were sixth in passing points allowed per game (13.8) and third in points allowed per pass attempt (0.37). Including the Ravens, Tannehill faced five teams inside of the top-10 in passing points allowed. 259 yards passing were his most in those games, but he threw 10 touchdowns to three interceptions and averaged 30.2 rushing yards in those games to propel himself to 20.9 fantasy points per game in those contests.
Running Back
Derrick Henry: With 34 carries for 250 yards to close the season, Henry became the eighth running back to clear 2,000 yards on the ground. Obviously leading the league in rushing, Henry was the first back to pace the league in rushing yards since LaDainian Tomlinson in the 2006-2007 seasons.
Leading the league in carries (378), rushing yards (2,027), and rushing scores (17) for the second straight season, Henry was the first back to lead the league in all three categories since Leroy Kelley in 1967-1968.
Henry also has done well in this matchup, rushing for 133 yards and a score back in Week 11 while accruing 195 yards on 30 carries when these teams played in the postseason a year ago. Neither Brandon Williams nor Calais Campbell played in the matchup this season, but even with that game factored in, the Ravens still ranked sixth in the league in rushing points allowed per game (10.7) to backfields, although they were 14th in yards allowed per carry to backs (4.28).
J.K. Dobbins: Dobbins has been the front pin for the Ravens backfield to close the season, leading the backfield in snaps played in each of his final nine games played this season. Dobbins has scored a touchdown in six straight games, one short of the franchise record set by Willis McGahee in 2007.
Although Dobbins has taken the lead in this backfield, his overall volume is still being supported by his scoring streak to close the season. Dobbins had fewer than 15 touches in every game but two this season and rushed for more than 77 yards just twice. With Dobbins still sharing work with Gus Edwards, who is averaging 10.8 touches per game over his past six, and Jackson’s added rushing component in the offense, Dobbins has had 40% of the team carries in three games as well.
One of those games was in Week 11 when these teams met in Week 11, with Dobbins tallying a season-high 17 touches.
The other good news is the Titans enter the postseason 23rd in explosive rushing yardage allowed (57.6 per game), the lowest rate of any playoff team in the NFL. 54.9% of Dobbins’ yardage on the ground came via explosive gains on the ground, which trailed only Nick Chubb (60.9%) among running backs with over 100 carries on the season.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown: Brown is coming off a season-high 11 targets last week, catching 10 passes for 151 yards and a score. It was his first game with double-digit targets this season, but his 10th game this season with a touchdown reception over his 14 games played.
The Ravens allowed the fewest points per game to opposing WR1 this season (10.5) and a league-low 44.9 yards and four touchdowns to those options, but Brown himself caught 4-of-7 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens in Week 11.
Corey Davis: Davis set career-highs this season per game with 4.6 receptions and 70.3 yards while also setting career marks in efficiency with a 70.7% catch rate and 15.1 yards per catch.
For fantasy, that came with some volatility playing in a low-volume passing game across from a true alpha wideout. Davis posted some strong weeks, with three games as a top-10 scorer this season. But he also had another five weeks outside of the top-40 at the position. Over his past five games, Davis has been all over the place, scoring 35.2, 4.4, 21.0, 0, and 8.9 PPR points.
Davis has had some of his best moments against teams that limit opposing WR1 options. In five games played against teams in the top-10 versus WR1 options, Davis has three 100-yard games, including a 5-113-0 game on seven targets versus the Ravens. Of course, not fully escaping volatility, Davis also has two complete zeroes in those other two games against those defenses.
Marquise Brown: Brown hits the postseason with six straight games reaching double-digit PPR points. He has seen 6.8 targets per game over that span (32.2% of the team share) while scoring a touchdown in five of those six games. Brown has been elevated through those scores, with 37.6% of his points scored over that stretch coming directly through touchdowns. For context, Adam Thielen led all top-50 scoring wideouts with 33.1% of his points scored coming via touchdowns.
Brown caught just 1-of-2 targets for a three-yard touchdown when these teams played in Week 11, but the Titans were 31st in points allowed per game to opposing lead wideouts (19.6).
Tight End
Mark Andrews: After catching three or fewer passes in six of his opening eight games, Andrews has at least four catches in six straight games. Andrews has seen 29.0% of the team targets over that span, including catching 5-of-7 targets for a season-high 96 yards with a touchdown against the Titans in Week 11.
Tennessee closed the season 30th in catch rate allowed per target to tight ends (74.5%), 30th in yards per target (8.33), and 23rd in touchdown rate (7.5%) allowed to tight ends.
Jonnu Smith: Through four games this season, Smith looked like he was going to be the next major tight end breakout. Smith caught 18-of-27 targets for 221 yards and five touchdowns to kick off the start of the season and then caught 23-of-38 targets for 227 yards and three touchdowns over his final 11 games played. Smith has cleared 32 yards in just one of those games with two or fewer receptions in eight of those games.
Smith did find the end zone against the Ravens in each of the past two games, but also had just 20 and 12 receiving yards to go with those touchdowns.
More Wild Card Weekend Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
IND at BUF | LAR at SEA | TB at WFT | BAL at TEN | CHI at NO | CLE at PIT
