The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Wild Card Weekend Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills Saturday afternoon game.
| Indianapolis | Rank | @ | Buffalo | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spread | -7 | ||
| 22.5 | Implied Total | 29.5 | ||
| 28.2 | 9 | Points/Gm | 31.3 | 2 |
| 22.6 | 10 | Points All./Gm | 23.4 | 16 |
| 64.5 | 16 | Plays/Gm | 64.6 | 15 |
| 62 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 64.1 | 17 |
| 44.5% | 8 | Rush% | 39.8% | 20 |
| 55.5% | 25 | Pass% | 60.3% | 13 |
| 39.3% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 40.4% | 11 |
| 60.7% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 59.6% | 22 |
Against the Spread
Bills: 11-5
Colts: 8-8
Bills ATS at Home: 6-2
Colts ATS Away: 5-3
Bills ATS as Favorite: 7-4
Colts ATS as Underdog: 0-1
Game Overview
The Bills enter the postseason as arguably the league’s hottest team. Buffalo has gone 9-1 over the final 10 weeks of the regular season, with their lone loss coming on a last-second “Hail Murray” completion in Arizona.
Over that span, Buffalo is second in the league in points scored (34.5 per game) and sixth in points allowed (20.7). Since their Week 11 bye, Buffalo has outscored opposing teams 229-110, the largest differential in the league.
The Colts began the 2020 season off as the only team to lose to the Jaguars this season, but then quickly rebounded to close the year at 11-5. As you can see from above, Indianapolis did not play many games in which they were expected to lose, being an underdog just once on the season back in Week 5 visiting the Browns. Outside of that loss to the Jaguars, the other four losses the Colts had this season were to the Browns, Ravens, Titans, and Steelers, all teams in the postseason.
Against teams with a winning record this season, Buffalo was 5-2, going 4-3 ATS in those games with a 5-2 edge towards over the game total. The Colts were 2-4 against winning teams straight up and against the spread with those games also going 5-1 towards the over.
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen enters the postseason as the highest scoring quarterback in fantasy this season and second in points per game (24.8) among full-season starters. Making a seismic shift in output, Allen entered 2020 with zero 300-yard passing games and closed the season with eight, a franchise record for a single season.
No passer attempts a higher rate of his passes on first down than Allen (48.8%) where he completed 72.0% of his passes for 8.9 yards per pass attempt. On all other downs, Allen completed 66.6% of his passes for 7.0 Y/A.
For fantasy, Allen was a top-five weekly scorer in nine games this season with at least 27 fantasy points in five of his final seven full games played.
The Colts closed the season 12th in passing points allowed per game (14.3), but Allen played eight games versus defenses ranked higher than that. In those eight games, Allen threw 23 touchdowns to four interceptions while averaging 22.5 fantasy points per game. The only game of those in which he did not throw multiple touchdown passes was a Week 8 windstorm against New England when he threw a season-low 18 passes. Since the Colts’ Week 7 bye, they have allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt after 6.5 Y/A prior.
Philip Rivers: Rivers accomplished exactly what the Colts had in mind this season, raising all of their team passing output while Rivers himself protected the ball, throwing an interception on just 2.0% of his passes after a 3.4% rate in 2019 with the Chargers.
For fantasy, Rivers closed the season as the QB20 in overall scoring. He held a high floor for the most part, but because of his lack of rushing ability, Rivers had just four QB1 scoring weeks and hit 20 fantasy points just three times on the season.
The Buffalo pass defense started the season out slowly, but has closed well. Through nine games, the Bills had allowed 7.6 Y/A and 16.3 passing points per game. Over their final seven games, they allowed 5.8 Y/A and 10.2 passing points per game. The schedule did them some favors to close the season, but they also held Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, and Ben Roethlisberger below their season averages entering their matchup.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor: Taylor closed the season on a monster clip. After 631 total yards and four touchdowns on 135 touches through nine games of his rookie season, Taylor turned 133 touches into 837 yards and eight touchdowns over the past six weeks of the season.
A light schedule played a role in his counting stats, but Taylor also gained confidence and opportunity along the way. Through 10 weeks, Taylor had forced just 13 missed tackles on those 135 touches and then produced 33 on 133 touches during his six-game hot stretch. He also did this with both offensive tackles Anthony Castonzo and Braden Smith missing time.
The Bills also fall into the category of a light matchup if you can maintain a neutral game script against them. Buffalo ranks 31st in the rate of runs to gain five or more yards (40.8%) and 25th in the percentage of carries to gain 10 or more yards (13.8%).
Bills RBs: Buffalo running backs produced just 20.2% of their non-passing fantasy points this season, the lowest rate for any backfield in the NFL.
Since the team’s Week 11 bye, this backfield has been an even split with Zack Moss having 43 touches for 202 yards over the past four games while Devin Singletary has 35 touches for 183 yards. The one stark contrast between the two is Moss has held an inline to the money touches, accounting for 10 opportunities inside of the 5-yard line in the 13 games these backs played together compared to two for Singletary.
The Colts were seventh this season in yards from scrimmage allowed to backfields (104.1 per game) and third in yards per carry (3.75 YPC) allowed to backs.
Nyheim Hines: Hines has had 17 and 18 touches in his two games versus Tennessee as his spike weeks, but 9-13 touches in all of the other six games orbiting those two games. With Taylor on his hot run, Hines is averaging 32% of the team snaps. Even with Taylor’s ascension, Hines has sustained value in PPR formats as he is 11th among all running backs in routes per team dropback (45.8%), reaching double-digit PPR points in seven of his past 10 games. We have not seen the Colts trail outright by a lot often this season, but if the game hits the projected script, then we could see him on the field more often late In the game.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs: Diggs closed the 2020 regular season leading the league in receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535) becoming the first Bills player to do either. Diggs was the only wide receiver in the league to reach double-digit PPR points in every game this season and has had at least seven catches in eight straight games heading into the postseason. The Colts finished the season 20th in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 (15.6). They were eighth in receptions allowed per game to those lead wideouts (4.8), but allowed 11 touchdowns to those players, which was tied for the fourth-most.
T.Y. Hilton: Hilton caught more than four passes in just three games all season, but has re-established himself as the lead option in the passing game, receiving at least 20% of the team targets in each of the final five games of the season. Hilton found the end zone in four of the final six games after failing to score through 11 weeks. The Bills have not used Tre’Davious White to shadow wideouts often, but if they did here, Hilton has played two games with White on the Bills, catching six total passes for 45 yards in those games. Buffalo has allowed 4.8 receptions per game to opposing WR1 options (ninth) and 63.3 yards per game (10th) to those options, but did allow eight touchdowns to lead wideouts.
John Brown: After sitting out since Week 10, Brown returned to the lineup in Week 17 to play 30 snaps (47%), catching all four of his targets for 72 yards and a touchdown, his first score since Week 2. Over his past three appearances, Brown has turned in lines of 8-99-0, 6-72-0, and 4-72-1. Brown has only played more than half of the offensive snaps in seven games this season, receiving 18.5% of the team targets those weeks. In totality, the Colts are allowing 8.9 yards per target to opposing wideouts (26th) and 1.87 points per target to the position (23rd).
Bills WRs: Cole Beasley is dealing with a leg injury and his status for Saturday is unknown this early in the week after being labeled “week to week” after Week 16. We do know the Bills added Kenny Stills to the practice squad, which could be insurance.
If Beasley does play, he may not be 100% and we also have the dynamic of him and Brown playing together. Beasley has seen 16.9% of the team targets when Brown is on the field near full capacity. Beasley’s average line in those seven games with Brown on the field is 4.6-53.9 but he does have three of his four touchdowns with Brown out there as opposed to one during all that time Brown was out.
With Beasley out in Week 17, Isaiah McKenzie led the Bills with 25 snaps from the slot with Diggs as the only other wideout to play a snap in the slot. McKenzie logged a season-high 38 routes run in total in the season finale, catching 6-of-8 targets for 65 yards with a 4-47-2 line specifically from the slot. Should Beasley remain out, McKenzie would serve as his backup.
Gabriel Davis was part of the crew that rested in Week 17, playing 59% of the snaps and running just 17 routes (38.6% of the team dropbacks). Those were his lowest rates since Week 10, which was also the last time that Brown was on the field. In the seven games with Brown playing at least 50% of the team snaps, Davis caught 9-of-15 targets for 125 yards while running a pass route on 45.8% of the team dropbacks. The other weeks, Davis ran a pass route on 88.7% of the dropbacks. Davis leads the team in depth of target (17.1 yards) and yards per reception (17.1).
Zach Pascal: Pascal has not had more than six targets in a game since Week 6, but has had a recent spike in usage, receiving 17.6% of the team targets over the final three games of the regular season (10-184-3) after having fewer than 10% of the team targets in the four games prior. Pascal’s season-highs for a game are five catches and 79 yards, but he runs 74.9% of his routes from the slot. That is a team-high and where the Bills have been the most vulnerable this season. Pascal had a 44-629-5 line this season with 30-360-4 coming from inside.
Michael Pittman: With Hilton’s reemergence and Pascal getting added targets, Pittman’s mid-season breakout was stopped in its tracks. After games of 7-101-0 and 3-66-1 Weeks 10-11, Pittman had more than three catches in just one of his past six games with 46 yards or fewer in each without a touchdown. The Bills are allowing 1.65 points per target to opposing wideouts (fifth).
Tight End
Colts TEs: The Colts’ triumvirate of Trey Burton, Jack Doyle, and Mo Alie-Cox has cannibalized itself. The last time a Colts tight end even reached double-digit PPR points in a game was in Week 12 when Burton had 3-42-1. For the season, Burton and Doyle each caught three touchdown passes while each had four end zone targets. Alie-Cox had a pair of scores with two end zone looks.
Opposing teams targeted their tight ends 23.6% of the time against Buffalo (the fourth-highest rate in the league) with Buffalo checking in 20th in yards allowed per target (7.64 yards) and 19th in points allowed per target (1.86) on those looks.
Dawson Knox: Knox reached double-digit PPR points just twice all season with more than two receptions in just two games. He was third on the team in end zone targets (five) if chasing a touchdown opportunity attached to Allen. Since their Week 7 bye, the Colts have allowed 7.3 yards per target to opposing tight ends after 3.7 Y/T prior.
More Wild Card Weekend Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
IND at BUF | LAR at SEA | TB at WFT | BAL at TEN | CHI at NO | CLE at PIT
