The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Wild Card Weekend Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday night game.
| Cleveland | Rank | @ | Pittsburgh | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Spread | -6 | ||
| 20.75 | Implied Total | 26.75 | ||
| 25.5 | 14 | Points/Gm | 26 | 12 |
| 26.2 | 21 | Points All./Gm | 19.5 | 3 |
| 63.9 | 21 | Plays/Gm | 65.2 | 11 |
| 64.7 | 19 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.2 | 6 |
| 48.4% | 4 | Rush% | 35.8% | 31 |
| 51.6% | 29 | Pass% | 64.2% | 2 |
| 39.8% | 9 | Opp. Rush % | 41.6% | 17 |
| 60.2% | 24 | Opp. Pass % | 58.4% | 16 |
Against the Spread
Steelers: 10-6
Browns: 6-10
Steelers ATS at Home: 5-3
Browns ATS Away: 3-5
Steelers ATS as Favorite: 6-5
Browns ATS as Underdog: 2-3
Game Overview
The Browns are in the postseason for the first time since 2002, but the story flagging them this game is the impact that COVID has had on their roster to close the season.
After being forced to play without their wide receiver room in Week 16 and losing Denzel Ward a week ago, the Browns will now be without head coach Kevin Stefanski this week and starting guard Joel Bitonio due to positive tests.
The Steelers have starters Joe Haden and Eric Ebron on the COVID list, with a pending update still, but Haden will not be cleared of 10 days in quarantine by Sunday.
Pittsburgh lost their footing some as the season progressed on both sides of the ball. After averaging 29.8 points per game through 10 games, the Steelers averaged 19.7 per game to close the season. We will have to see how much the final two quarters versus the Colts in Week 16 carry over into the postseason, but from Weeks 13-16 with Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers scored on just 23.5% of their drives (31st).
The Steelers are 14-0 (8-5-1 ATS) at home versus the Browns under Mike Tomlin, including a 38-7 victory back in Week 6.
The Browns also have some historical trends working against them here outside of a bunch of bad Cleveland teams failing to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Cleveland also potentially has the only first-time playoff quarterback pending what happens surrounding Jared Goff.
First-time playoff quarterbacks have had a tough road when facing quarterbacks with playoff experience, especially in the opening round. Since 2002, teams in that spot have gone 10-28 straight up and 12-26 against the spread. One note on those games is that those games have gone under the game total at a 29-9 clip.
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger: The last time we saw Roethlisberger on the field in Week 16, he was continuing to struggle. To start the game, Roethlisberger was 11-of-20 for 98 yards (4.9 Y/A) in the first half, which was more of what we had seen over the previous month. Then Big Ben and the offense caught fire in the second half, with Roethlisberger completing 23-of-29 passes for 243 yards (8.4 Y/A) and three touchdowns.
While there is a question on which Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh offense shows up Sunday night, the matchup is favorable. The Browns are 24th in passing points allowed per game (16.7) and have allowed 17 or more fantasy points to five of the past six starters they have faced, which includes Mike Glennon, and Sam Darnold.
Cleveland will be without both cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Kevin Johnson and Olivier Vernon was last for the season a week ago to a torn Achilles.
Baker Mayfield: Mayfield threw for a career-low 222.7 yards per game this season, but made significant improvements from his second season in completion rate (62.8%), touchdown rate (5.3%), and interception rate (1.6%).
When it comes to Mayfield, we always start with pressure. Mayfield has averaged 4.5 Y/A under pressure as opposed to 8.1 Y/A when kept clean. That 3.6 Y/A drop is 37th among passers. The Steelers lead the league in pressure rate (32.2%) and are third in blitz rate (40.3%). In two games versus Pittsburgh this season, Mayfield was pressured on 34.5% of his dropbacks and sacked on 8.6%. In all other games, he was under pressure on 25.4% of his dropbacks and sacked on 3.8%.
In five career games against the Steelers, Mayfield has yet to throw for 200 yards or throw more than two touchdown passes.
Running Back
Nick Chubb: Since returning to the lineup in Week 10, Chubb has hit 100 total yards in six of those eight games while scoring a touchdown on the ground in seven of those games.
No running back with over 100 carries had a higher explosive run rate than Chubb’s 17.9%, which accounted for 60.9% of his rushing yards on the season. The Steelers were strong overall against the run, allowing 3.85 YPC to backs (seventh), but were middle of the pack in allowing runs of 10 or more yards on 11.8% of carries (15th) with 46.9% of their rushing yards allowed on those carries (21st).
Kareem Hunt: Hunt has scored single-digit points in four of his past 11 games played. He still has games of 102, 132, and 110 yards over that span to showcase that he still has a high ceiling, but has 62 or fewer total yards in six of his past seven games. Over the past three games, Chubb has out-touched Hunt 47-28 and has out-touched Hunt 146-103 since returning to the lineup.
James Conner: The Steelers enter the postseason with the worst running game in the NFL, not just among playoff teams. Pittsburgh was dead last in expected points added via their rushing offense (-41.8) while the next closest team (the Bengals) was at -28.7. From Week 7 on, the Steelers were last in the NFL in rushing yards with just 60.6 per game.
Conner has come back to reclaim the full-time lead role, however, playing 61.8% and 64.2% of the snaps the past two weeks, but has managed 65 and 62 yards in those games. As a positive, Conner does have five receptions in each of the past two games.
Wide Receiver
Jarvis Landry: Forced to miss Week 16 due to close contact tracing, Landry caught 5-of-6 targets for 51 yards last week against the Steelers. Landry has cleared 62 yards just twice on the season, but has held a high floor. Landry has double-digit PPR points in each of his past five games played with five or more catches in all of those games. The Steelers are ninth in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 (14.0) but are expected to be without Haden again this weekend.
Diontae Johnson: Johnson closed the season sixth among all wide receivers in targets (144), but was 13th in receptions (88) and 25th in yardage (923) at the position. While Johnson was not overly efficient, his volume did give him a high floor, posting double-digit points in 10 of his 13 full games played. Despite missing a full game and nearly two others to go along with drop issues, Roethlisberger still targeted Johnson 20 more times than any other player this season.
Chase Claypool: Claypool said his snaps were cut as the season wore on to prevent him from hitting the rookie wall, but then was not only active, but fed 11 targets in a Week 17 game. Those 11 targets were a game-high since Week 9 while he had his second 100-yard game of the season and scored his first touchdown since Week 11.
When it comes to big plays, Claypool is still that upside option in this passing game, averaging a team-high 13.8-yard depth of target and 14.1 yards per reception. The Browns are 30th in points allowed per target on throws over 15 yards downfield.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster reeled in 97 passes this season, which was seventh among all wideouts. But a career-low 6.0-yard depth of target and 8.6 yards per catch turned all of those receptions into just 831 yards, which was 36th among all wide receivers.
While Smith-Schuster was used in a limited capacity near the line of scrimmage, he still matched Claypool with a team-high nine touchdown receptions as he the slot receiver had a team-high 10 end zone targets which he turned into seven touchdowns. Smith-Schuster enters the postseason scoring in six of his past eight games.
Rashard Higgins: Since Cleveland lost Odell Beckham for the season, Higgins is tied for second on the team with 40 targets (16.9%) and 26 receptions, and 436 receiving yards. Despite having 22 fewer targets than Landry over that span, Higgins has just 37 fewer receiving yards and has posted more receiving yards than Landry in four consecutive games.
Tight End
Austin Hooper: In his first year in Cleveland, Hooper averaged just 3.5 receptions and 33.5 yards per game, his lowest totals since 2017. Despite the low yardage production, Hooper has found his way to double-digit PPR points in four straight games while scoring a touchdown in three of his past five.
The Steelers allowed a league-low 1.24 points per target to opposing tight ends, with Hooper posting 5-52-0 and 4-37-1 in his two games against Pittsburgh this season.
Eric Ebron: Ebron is eligible to come off the COVID list and play this week, but monitor his status throughout the week. With the Steelers this season, Ebron averaged 3.7 receptions for 37.2 yards per game. As was the case with the majority of this passing offense forced to work near the line of scrimmage, Ebron’s 10.0 yards per catch were his lowest since his rookie season. Ebron’s 6.1 targets per game were still good for 11th among all tight ends.
Cleveland was 28th in targets faced to opposing tight ends (7.5 per game), ranking 25th in catch rate (70.8%) and 15th in yards allowed per target (7.3) to the position, but also allowing an 8.3% touchdown rate (26th).
More Wild Card Weekend Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
IND at BUF | LAR at SEA | TB at WFT | BAL at TEN | CHI at NO | CLE at PIT
