The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Wild Card Weekend Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks Saturday afternoon game.
| LA Rams | Rank | @ | Seattle | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Spread | -4.5 | ||
| 19.25 | Implied Total | 23.75 | ||
| 23.2 | 23 | Points/Gm | 28.7 | 8 |
| 18.5 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 23.2 | 15 |
| 68 | 3 | Plays/Gm | 63.9 | 20 |
| 61.8 | 3 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 69.5 | 32 |
| 43.47% | 11 | Rush% | 40.22% | 19 |
| 56.5% | 22 | Pass% | 59.8% | 14 |
| 39.2% | 5 | Opp. Rush % | 35.3% | 2 |
| 60.8% | 28 | Opp. Pass % | 64.8% | 31 |
Against the Spread
Seahawks: 8-8
Rams: 9-7
Seahawks ATS at Home: 6-2
Rams ATS Away: 4-4
Seahawks ATS as Favorite: 7-7
Rams ATS as Underdog: 2-2
Game Overview
This will be the third matchup between these teams this season and over the past eight weeks. The Rams got the better of the Seahawks at home back in Week 10 23-16 while the Seahawks won 20-9 at home two weeks ago.
In the postseason under Sean McVay, the Rams are 2-2 straight up and against the spread while the Seahawks have a 10-7 record (9-8 ATS) in the playoffs under Pete Carroll. Carroll-led Seahawks teams have a perfect 6-0 record in the playoffs at home (4-2 ATS).
The front half of this season was dominated by the “Let Russ Cook” mantra, but the Seahawks offense has largely been lackluster over the back half of the season.
Through eight games, Seattle had thrown the ball on 56% of their first down plays outside of the fourth quarter, which was the fourth-highest rate in the league over that span. During that run, Seattle averaged 34.3 points per game with a low of 27 points.
Over the final eight games, Seattle has thrown the ball 47% of the time on first down, 21st in the league. Over that span, Seattle has averaged 23.1 points per game with two games scoring more than 26 points.
The Rams have had their own offensive struggles as the season has progressed. After scoring 30 or more points in three of their opening five games of the season, the Rams have hit 30 points in just one other game since.
Since their Week 9 bye, the Rams are 21st in the league in percentage of scoring drives (33.8%) and 30th in the rate of drives to end with a touchdown (15.6%), ahead of only the Jaguars and Bengals over that span.
Defensively, however, the Rams allowed a scoring drive on a league-low 28.7% of opponent drives and a touchdown on 16.3%, also the lowest rate over the season.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson: Wilson had a high of 263 passing yards over his final eight games with 6.4 Y/A and a 4.6% touchdown rate after clearing 263 passing yards in six of his opening eight games of the season with an 8.6 Y/A and a 9.4% touchdown rate in those games.
In two games against the Rams, Wilson managed 9.9 and 19.9 fantasy points, throwing for 248 yards (6.7 Y/A) and 225 yards (7.0 Y/A) with two touchdown passes and adding a rushing score. His 19.9 points in Week 16 were good for the third-most the Rams allowed in a game this season to an opposing quarterback.
Where the Rams have been excellent at is defending the deep ball. They allowed a league-low 30.9% completion rate on throws over 15 yards downfield with just one touchdown pass on those attempts. Their 0.22 passing points allowed per attempt on those throws was nearly half of the difference of the next closest team (New Orleans at 0.43 per attempt).
Wilson was seventh in the NFL in fantasy points generated on those throws (90.0). In two games against the Rams, Wilson completed 4-of-14 attempts (28.6%) for 7.9 Y/A and a 30.1 rating. Against everyone else, Wilson completed 44.3% of those throws for 13.8 Y/A and a 101.3 rating.
Rams QB: The Rams have not ruled out Jared Goff for Saturday after having surgery on this thumb last week, but have suggested that it will be “challenging” for him to play although he did put in practice time this week.
With Goff out last week, the Rams turned to John Wolford for his first career NFL start. Wolford was largely non-descript as a passer, completing 57.9% of his passes for 6.1 Y/A, but did manage to add 56 yards rushing on six carries.
We could even see both quarterback in this game. Goff’s first game against Seattle was strong, completing 73% of his passes for 8.2 Y/A in Week 10, but that was arguably the turning point for the Seattle defense as Goff completed just 55.8% of his passes for 5.4 Y/A in Week 16 against the division rival and suffered that broken thumb in the 4th quarter.
After a historically bad pass defense through the 10 weeks, the Seahawks have allowed 5.6 Y/A over their past seven games and 11.3 passing points per game over that span. The schedule has been more than favorable in facing Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins, Goff, and C.J. Beathard. While that has been a light rogue’s gallery, they have also improved as they did not elevate any of those passers. Both are allowed to be true.
Running Back
Chris Carson: Since returning to action in Week 13, Carson was the RB13 in overall fantasy output, 12th in touches (90), and 11th in yards from scrimmage (498 yards). Carson has hit 20 touches in just one game this season, but has at least 15 in four of his past five games.
The Rams have been tough against the run, allowing 3.83 YPC to backs (sixth) and 10.4 rushing points per game to backfields (10.4). They also allowed the fewest amount of rushing yardage on explosive carries this season (29.1 per game).
Carson only played in one of the games versus the Rams this season, tallying 79 total yards on 19 touches in Week 16.
Cam Akers: Even playing through a high ankle sprain, Akers returned right back to dominating the Rams backfield, playing 65.8% of the snaps and accruing 25 of the 29 backfield touches for 86 yards. Over his past four games played, Akers has 94 touches while all other Rams backs have totaled 19.
Darrell Henderson is still out with his own high-ankle sprain, so nothing should change this weekend.
Seattle allowed 3.93 YPC to back in the regular season (10th) and 11.4 rushing points per game (10th) while allowing the Rams backfield to total 122 yards and three rushing touchdowns on 26 touches in Week 10 and 97 yards on 20 touches in Week 16 when Akers was absent.
Wide Receiver
D.K. Metcalf: Along for the ride of the passing game and playing a role in propelling it over the front half of the season, Metcalf posted 92 or more yards in seven of the opening eight games of the season. As regression and reduction hit the offense, Metcalf had more than 61 yards in two of his final eight games with more than 80 yards in one. He also had just two touchdowns over that span after eight prior.
In his first game against the Rams in Week 10, Metcalf had 2-28-0 (four targets). The team found a way to get him more involved in the rematch as he had 6-59-0 (eight targets). Only the Ravens allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing WR1 this season than the Rams (12.0 per game) while Los Angeles ranked second in receptions (5.1) and yards (54.6) allowed per game to those lead wideouts.
Metcalf was fifth among all wide receivers in points created on deep targets (99.3), but caught just 1-of-4 targets for 19 yards on throws over 15 yards downfield versus the Rams.
Robert Woods: Woods caught 90 passes in the regular season while producing a career-high eight touchdowns. He did average a career-low 10.4 yards per reception, but has averaged over 5.0 receptions per game in each of his past three seasons. Woods also was third among all wide receivers this season with 155 rushing yards.
At the end of the season, however, Woods has trickled to the finish line with the Rams offense. Woods has single-digit PPR points in three of his past four games to end the season with 56 or fewer yards in each of those four games. That said, the targets have not dried up, with Woods receiving 23.7% of the team targets over the past month with at least seven targets in each of his past seven games played.
With Wolford last week, Woods secured 4-of-7 targets for 36 yards, but his 18.4% target share was his lowest rate in a game since Week 10.
In his two games versus Seattle, Woods caught 5-of-6 targets for 33 yards and 4-of-9 targets for 48 yards.
Tyler Lockett: After several weeks of dormancy, Lockett snapped off a 12-90-2 game on 14 targets in Week 17. This after catching one touchdown pass and having fewer than 67 yards in each of his previous nine games. When Lockett does hit, he does hit big at least.
In his two games against the Rams, Lockett caught 5-of-9 targets for 66 yards and 3-of-5 targets for 44 yards. The Rams were first in the NFL in yards allowed (7.13) and points allowed (1.55) per target to opposing wideouts with a league-low 2.5% touchdown rate to the position.
Cooper Kupp: Kupp is back practicing this week after missing last week due to COVID. Kupp reeled in a career-high 6.1 receptions per game in 2020 with a career-best 74.2% catch rate, but averaged a career-low 10.6 yards per catch with just three touchdowns Against Seattle, Kupp had games of 2-41-0 (five targets) and 8-66-0 (nine targets).
Rams WRs: With Kupp out last week, Wolford targeted Van Jefferson a team-high eight times (4-50-0) and Josh Reynolds six times (4-29-0). Reynolds himself had the most success versus Seattle among all the Rams wideouts, turning in games of 8-94-0 (10 targets) and 6-65-0 (10 targets).
Seattle has not faced an overly strong stretch of opposing games, but have not allowed a wide receiver to catch a touchdown pass or reach 100 yards in a game since Week 9.
Tight End
Rams TEs: This is a team effort as both Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett are running nearly identical pass routes per game. Over the past four weeks, each Rams tight end has seen 17 targets come his way, but Higbee (12-176-1) had more success than Everett (7-75-0) in turning his opportunities into anything. In both games against Seattle, Higbee saw six targets (3-60 and 3-34) while Everett had three in each game (2-27 and 2-13).
Seahawks TEs: It remains to be seen if Greg Olsen will be available Saturday due to a foot injury that has limited him to just 12 snaps since Week 11. Over that time span, Jacob Hollister has 11 receptions with two touchdowns (one against the Rams in Week 16) but has also not had more than 20 receiving yards in any of those games. Will Dissly also has 11 receptions over that span for 98 yards and a touchdown.
More Wild Card Weekend Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
IND at BUF | LAR at SEA | TB at WFT | BAL at TEN | CHI at NO | CLE at PIT
