The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 2 Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers Sunday afternoon game.
|31.25%||7||Opp. Rush %||66.07%||32|
|68.75%||26||Opp. Pass %||33.93%||1|
- Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 8-12 (11-9 ATS) with a rest advantage, including a 2-6 record over the past two seasons.
- The Seahawks are 22-23 (23-21 ATS) with a rest disadvantage under Pete Carroll.
- Under Shanahan, the 49ers are 2-8 (4-6 ATS) against the Seahawks.
- San Francisco posted a 32.4% success rate per passing play in Week 1, ahead of only the Cowboys (28.3%).
- Trey Lance had the lowest completion percentage below expectation (-21.1%) in Week 1.
- With a league-low 49 offensive plays in Week 1, the Seahawks now have 15 games with fewer than 60 offensive plays since the start of last season. The next closest team (Houston) has 10 such games.
Trust = spike production for that player
Trey Lance: Getting his first legitimate run with the keys to the team, Lance closed Week 1 as the QB28 (9.9 points), completing 13-of-28 passes (46.4%) for 164 yards (5.9 Y/A), with no touchdowns and an interception. He added 54 yards rushing on 13 carries to give him 5.4 rushing points compared to just 4.5 passing points, which only beat out Dak Prescott in Week 1.
The question here is how much of a hall pass does Lance get due to the conditions in Week 1?
The end of the game was played in a borderline monsoon. In the fourth quarter, Lance was 5-of-14 passing (35.7%) for just 43 yards (3.1 Y/A) with an interception. But even in the first half, Lance was just 6-of-10 passes for 70 yards as the 49ers carried an 18-to-11 run-to-pass ratio.
The other area of concern for Lance is the offensive line. Lance was under pressure on 37.1% of his dropbacks (13th highest) despite the Bears not blitzing in the game. Under pressure, Lance connected on just 1-of-8 passes for -2 yards.
Playing at home as a huge favorite provides a runway to bounce back, but will the 49ers just turtle on offense like they did in the first half last week with a lead, or will they actually push Lance to carry the offense? Especially if the Seattle offense fails to punch up again, this game has the potential to be a slow-paced slog.
But if the 49ers do want to rebuild some confidence for Lance if any has wavered, this is the spot.
Despite the final score on Monday night, the Seahawks’ pass defense was what we thought it’d be. Seattle allowed 8.1 yards per pass attempt (25th) and 11.7 yards per completion (21st).
This is a spot to be bullish on Lance if you believe in him big picture, but there are enough orbiting cons in place to keep us honest with him as a boom-or-bust option in Week 2. I personally am on the former side (for fantasy points) and will be mixing him into DFS lineups but understand the trepidation in season-long leagues turning to safer points.