Super Bowl LV DFS Showdown Analysis: Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Showdown for Super Bowl LV features an explosive rematch as the Chiefs visit the Buccaneers. My thoughts for Showdown are below, and be sure to check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for a full breakdown of the Kansas City Chiefs against the Tampa Bay Bay Buccaneers.

With GPPs this week exceeding 650K entries, it will be even more difficult to avoid duplicates. If your goal is to take first place with a unique lineup, then make sure to formulate your strategy with the field size in mind. Any lineups remotely close to an optimal build are likely to be heavily duplicated. For smaller field or single-entry tournaments, just a little differentiation can be enough.

Antonio Brown, Cameron Brate, and Sammy Watkins have injury designations worth monitoring, with all expected to play. Demarcus Robinson must test negative for COVID to play after a close contact. Their statuses should be confirmed around 2:00 PST on Sunday.

Patrick Mahomes will be the most popular player for both CPT and flex, with his top receiving options, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill a ways behind but still among the four most popular. It’s hard to find a reason to dislike any of these three other than ownership. QBs tend to be over-rostered, especially at CPT, so I favor a strategy of going heavy on pass-catchers and lighter on their QB. My top choice of these is Hill, who has the highest ceiling and should be near or below Kelce in ownership.

Watkins is expected to return from injury, and if he does he would be my favorite of the remaining Chiefs. If he is a full-go, it would lower the upside of Mecole Hardman and Robinson, while reducing Byron Pringle to a complete dart-throw. Along those lines, Nick Keizer is the backup TE available at min-price.

I don’t have much interest in the KC backfield against TB’s top rush defense. Darrel Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are currently expected to split work, with Le’Veon Bell projected for one or two touches. I slightly prefer Williams at his price and given CEH’s recent struggles and injuries, but CEH is a more contrarian choice if trying to be unique. Bell could be a low-priced difference maker if he gets more work than expected or converts a goal-line touch.

Tom Brady should be between the second and fourth most popular for CPT and Flex. If I was going to use a QB for CPT, I would favor Brady due to the exposure discount. Chris Godwin has been more popular than Mike Evans this season and that is expected to be the case again. Evans has shown a higher ceiling thanks to both deep and red zone targets, so I’ll go overweight for leverage. I won’t take a stand on Godwin and am fine using them together.

If Brown plays, I might be with or below the field on exposure. I really like Scotty Miller as a low-rostered flex play, but if Brown misses then his ownership and projection will go way up. Additionally, Tyler Johnson would come in to play as a WR4, but remains a dart-throw if Brown starts.

Projections vary greatly between Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, likely due to Brate’s recent addition to the injury report with a back injury. His status should be confirmed before finalizing your lineups, but both TEs are fine options with Gronkowski being a better value currently, and a huge upgrade if Brate is limited or ruled out. It normally makes sense to use at most one TE per team, but they both succeeded in their previous game against KC, who is weak against the position.

Leonard Fournette is expected to lead the backfield, with Ronald Jones as a change of pace, early down RB. Either one would be a contrarian choice for CPT with Fournette clearly more owned there, and ownership projections differ on who will be a more popular flex choice. I believe Jones will be in more lineups than projections suggest due to his low salary.

Strategy:

Given how closely lined the game is and the fantastic players on both sides, I expect onslaughts to be under-used, especially for the underdogs. Due to the staggering amount of entrants, I’m willing to embrace some negative correlation to help differentiate. I’ve removed some build rules including “at most one RB from one team”, and “at most one TE per team”. These can still be encouraged with negative correlation boosts if you choose. Even using a DST and opposing QB together is worth consideration in a projected shootout, as a pick-six would give those lineups great potential.

Using Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce together has not been as popular as one might think, and will be very expensive here. Most who opt to do so will include Jones as a salary-saver, so avoiding him in those builds will help differentiate. Try to think through how your lineups could make sense if the game plays out a certain way, and tweak rules as you build. Keep in mind the obvious and ‘optimal’ things the field will overdo and avoid them. On FD, it would take an extremely strange lineup to take down a solo win, so I will be sticking with DK.

DK Values:

Ronald Jones ($2,200)
Rob Gronkowski ($3,000) – Big upgrade if Brate is limited or out
Either K ($3,800/4,000)

DK Leverage:

Mike Evans ($8,400)

Sammy Watkins ($4,200) – Unless ruled out

DK Build Guide:

Max 1 DST
Max 1 K
If CPT RB, negative boost opposing DST/K
If CPT QB, force 3+ pass-catchers (or boost)
If CPT WR, force/boost QB
Leave salary on the table, especially with chalky CPTs
Include more dart-throws than normal in large-field MME

FD Values:

Rob Gronkowski ($6,500)
Sammy Watkins ($7,500)

FD Leverage:

Cameron Brate ($7,000) – Monitor injury status
Scotty Miller ($6,500) – Better value but less contrarian if Brown is limited or out
Demarcus Robinson ($5,500) – Better value but less contrarian if Watkins is limited or out
Tyler Johnson ($5,500) – WR5 moves to WR4 if Brown is out

FD Build Guide: