The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 3 Houston Texans at Chicago Bears Sunday afternoon game.
| Houston | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Spread | -2.5 | ||
| 19 | Implied Total | 21.5 | ||
| 14.5 | 26 | Points/Gm | 14.5 | 26 |
| 18 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 18.5 | 12 |
| 63.5 | 15 | Plays/Gm | 48.5 | 31 |
| 77.5 | 31 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.5 | 22 |
| 4.2 | 32 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.5 | 29 |
| 5.6 | 17 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 18 |
| 36.22% | 23 | Rush% | 65.98% | 1 |
| 63.78% | 10 | Pass% | 34.02% | 32 |
| 44.52% | 21 | Opp. Rush % | 56.39% | 32 |
| 55.48% | 12 | Opp. Pass % | 43.61% | 1 |
- Chicago (-313) and Houston (-334) rank 30th and 31st in yardage differential gained versus their opponent through two weeks.
- Houston has 19 fewer first downs than their opponent (32nd) while Chicago has 18 fewer (31st).
- Houston has had 25 possessions through two games. Just two (8.0%) have reached the red zone, the lowest rate in the league.
- 55.0% of the Chicago possessions have failed to gain a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in the league.
- Houston is 31st in the league at 44.0% of possessions failing to gain a first down or touchdown.
- 24.0% of Davis Mills’s pass attempts have resulted in a first down or touchdown, the lowest rate for all quarterbacks to play in full both weeks of the season.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Justin Fields: Fields has gotten out of the blocks as the QB23 (13.6 points) and the QB27 (8.8 points). He has just 11.6 passing points in total through two games while attempting just 28 passes. 26 quarterbacks threw more than 28 passes just last week.
For further context, the 28 pass attempts by the Bears are the fewest through two weeks of the season since 2001 when Arizona threw just 28 passes. You have to go all the way back to 1978 to find a team that threw fewer than 28 passes over the first two weeks of the season.
Trailing 24-7 at the half on Sunday, the Bears called 17 run plays to just seven passes in the second half.
There is nowhere to go but up in terms of passing volume for the Bears.
While tongue in cheek, playing the 49ers in a monsoon and then the Packers were bad runouts regardless of the play calling.
This week versus Houston should provide more opportunity to be aggressive… or just swerve into the 1960’s completely and never throw the ball as a home favorite.
Houston has allowed just a 56.8% completion rate (fifth), but they have allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt (16th) and 12.4 yards per completion (29th) to Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson.
The Texans are 25th in pressure rate (25.8%) if the Bears are concerned about their offensive line, since they faced the 49ers who are fourth (37.5%) and the Packers, who are first (42.0%). The Packers were third in pressure rate in Week 1 when not facing the Bears and San Francisco was second in pressure rate in Week 2, if wondering how much influence facing the Bears had in elevating either defense.
The approach so far in Chicago makes it hard to handle Fields as more than a matchup-based QB2, but I would not be surprised to see the Bears be more aggressive and Fields to have his best fantasy game of the early season on Sunday.
