The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 14 matchup between the Chiefs and Texans on Sunday Night Football.
Find a breakdown of every Week 14 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
| Houston | Rank | @ | Kansas City | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Spread | -3.5 | ||
| 19.0 | Implied Total | 22.5 | ||
| 21.9 | 21 | Points/Gm | 25.4 | 9 |
| 16.5 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 19.3 | 7 |
| 64.4 | 7 | Plays/Gm | 65.9 | 2 |
| 56.8 | 5 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 55.3 | 1 |
| 5.1 | 22 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.7 | 8 |
| 4.7 | 4 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.6 | 23 |
| 41.27% | 22 | Rush% | 40.83% | 25 |
| 58.73% | 11 | Pass% | 59.17% | 8 |
| 40.03% | 7 | Opp. Rush % | 42.84% | 17 |
| 59.97% | 26 | Opp. Pass % | 57.16% | 16 |
- Houston games are 9-3 toward the under this season, tied with the Saints for the highest rate below the game total.
- Texans games average a combined 38.4 points per game, the fewest in the league.
- Houston has held opponents to 47.5 fewer points than their implied totals, the lowest margin in the league.
- The Chiefs are 2nd, holding opponents to 34 points below their implied totals.
- The Chiefs have allowed 1.47 points per drive at home (6th) compared to 2.52 points per drive on the road (26th).
- The Texans have converted 43.6% (19 of 39) of their red zone trips into touchdowns, 31st in the league.
- Kansas City has converted 43.8% (7 of 16) of their red zone trips into touchdowns over the past four games (25th) after converting 70.6% (24 of 34) prior (5th).
- The Chiefs have scored on 49.1% of their possessions, 2nd in the league.
- Houston has allowed points on a league-low 26.4% of possessions.
- Kansas City averages 11.0 passing plays of 10 or more yards per game, second in the league.
- Houston leads the league in EPA as a pass defense (44.7).
- Houston has held opponents to a 33.8% conversion rate on third downs, 2nd in the league.
- Kansas City has allowed a league-high 50% conversion rate on third downs over their past four games.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Mahomes was the highest scoring quarterback in Week 13 (29.3 standard points), completing 23 of 34 passes for 261 yards (7.7 Y/A) with 4 touchdowns, adding 30 rushing yards.
That was the first week in which Mahomes was higher than QB10 in scoring since Week 7.
Things are more challenging here, and Mahomes is a tricky start this week.
I have him as a volatile option on the QB1/QB2 line.
The Chiefs have their lowest home implied team total this season, facing a Houston defense that has allowed more than 20 points twice.
In the past two tough passing matchups that Kansas City has faced, Mahomes was the QB14 (13.3 points) against Denver and the QB22 (10.5 points) against the Bills.
Houston has not allowed a QB1 scorer this season.
They allow 10.4 passing points per game (3rd), a 58.6% completion rate (3rd), 6.3 yards per pass attempt (4th), and a 3.2% touchdown rate (3rd).
On their resume, they have faced Josh Allen (8.1 points) and Matthew Stafford (13.6 points).
Baker Mayfield (19.9 points), Bo Nix (18.5 points), and Daniel Jones (16.1 points) did not have QB1 games against Houston, but they did post viable lines.
Mahomes faced Houston at home twice last season.
In those games, he passed for 6.3 and 7.1 yards per pass attempt, throwing 1 touchdown in each game.
He scored 23.7 and 12.5 fantasy points in those games.
In the first game, he got over for fantasy by adding 33 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
He has that in his range of outcomes here again, since he is running more this season.
Mahomes is averaging a career-high 29.0 rushing yards per game and has matched his career-high with 4 touchdowns on the ground.
The most concerning development is that Kansas City could be without three starting offensive linemen this week, with Josh Simmons, Jawaan Taylor, and Trey Smith all injured.
This is the wrong defense to come in short-handed against up front.
Houston ranks second in the league in pressure rate (42.8%) and third without blitzing (38.9%).
Mahomes has been sensitive to pressure this season.
When pressured, Mahomes has completed 44.3% of his passes (23rd) with an 18.9% inaccurate throw rate (31st).
When Mahomes has been pressured, he has attempted to push the ball downfield, which has contributed to those rates.
He averages 11.8 air yards per attempt when pressured (2nd highest)
Without pressure, Mahomes has averaged 6.6 air yards per attempt (23rd).
C.J. Stroud: Stroud was back on Sunday after missing the past three weeks with a concussion.
He ended the week as the QB26 (9.0 points), completing 22 of 35 passes (62.9%) for 276 yards (7.9 Y/A) without a touchdown and an interception.
Stroud has two QB1-scoring weeks this season, against a depleted Baltimore defense (28.8 points) and a depleted San Francisco defense (21.7 points).
On the road with a low team total, this is not a spot where Stroud is more than a floor-based QB2.
In two games in Kansas City last season, Stroud scored 16.1 and 14.0 fantasy points.
At home this season, the Chiefs have allowed 6.0 yards per pass attempt (3rd) and 8.6 yards per completion (2nd) and a 3.7% touchdown rate (11th).
Running Back
Chiefs RBs: Kansas City got Isiah Pacheco back last week, but Kareem Hunt still led this backfield with 15 touches (75%) for 80 yards.
Pacheco only played 16 snaps, handling 5 touches for 33 yards.
With more time off since playing on Thursday, Pacheco should ramp up more snaps this week.
Paired with the matchup, Hunt is a touchdown-dependent FLEX while Pacheco is a low-ceiling FLEX.
Houston is allowing 3.9 yards per carry to running backs (7th) and 74.4 rushing yards per game (4th).
The only backs to reach 100 total yards against Houston have been James Cook (129), Jonathan Taylor (121), and Bucky Irving (121).
Woody Marks: Marks turned 20 touches into 67 yards on Sunday.
He had an injury scare early in the game due to a foot issue, but returned in the second quarter.
Even with a trip to the locker room, Marks handled 68.9% of the backfield touches.
Marks has 19, 17, and 20 touches in the past three games, but only has 51, 69, and 67 yards.
He has been the RB42, RB32, and RB42 in those games.
Nick Chubb also pilfered a touchdown last week.
Out of 38 running backs with 100-plus attempts this season, Marks is 31st in success rate (33.6%), failing to gain yardage on 23.9% of his attempts (33rd).
The Chiefs are allowing 76.0 rushing yards per game to backfields (fifth), facing the second-fewest rushing attempts per game (17.6).
Marks has not had an outlet for fantasy points through receiving, either.
He has 4 receptions for 5 yards over the past four games.
Marks could see a spike in targets with Houston as a road underdog, but that takes guesswork.
In a tough spot on the road, Marks is a volume-based FLEX.
Wide Receiver
More Week 14 Fantasy Breakdowns From The Worksheet:
| Matchup | Time |
|---|---|
| Cowboys @ Lions | Thursday Night Football |
| Seahawks @ Falcons | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Colts @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Bengals @ Bills | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Titans @ Browns | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Commanders @ Vikings | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Dolphins @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Saints @ Bucs | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Steelers @ Ravens | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
| Broncos @ Raiders | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
| Bears @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Rams @ Cardinals | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
| Texans @ Chiefs | Sunday Night Football |
| Eagles @ Chargers | Monday Night Football |
