Thursday Night Football DFS Showdown Analysis: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Week 11’s Showdown offerings are some of the most exciting yet, beginning with the Cardinals visiting the Seahawks on Thursday night. My thoughts for Showdown are below, but be sure to check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for a full breakdown of Arizona at Seattle.

Since these teams already played each other in a Showdown this season, we can look back for some insight into how the field built their lineups. The big winning lineups on DK and FD were both duplicated 100+ times. Normally, leaving $900 in salary helps differentiate, but when the studs are this expensive it can lead to a stars and scrubs approach. (DK Winning lineup shown below)

The QBs are obviously the top plays and will be the most owned. Last time, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray were stacked with a WR in near 80% of lineups. The breakdown for QB usage was: no QB (<2%), single QB (73%), both QBs (25%).

I’m curious how much the pricing changes and recency bias will impact ownership this time. The prime example would be Tyler Lockett, who was the optimal CPT and MVP last time with 20 targets, versus DK Metcalf, who had a quiet game. Locket also has an injury designation which could depress his exposure slightly, but his price is much better than Metcalf and DeAndre Hopkins. Christian Kirk was the most stacked WR last time because of his low price. I prefer Lockett (if fully healthy) and Hopkins, but will wait to see projections.

The Cardinals’ backfield situation is clear: Kenyan Drake will lead in carries while Chase Edmonds will mix in for some carries and targets. I prefer the latter, who has been far more explosive this year and has a lower price.

The Seahawks have been dealing with injuries at RB and their rotation has been changing regularly. With Chris Carson listed as questionable and not expected to play, it is currently projected that Carlos Hyde will return and lead the way with Alex Collins as the RB2, if they call him up from the practice squad again, and DeeJay Dallas as a dart-throw RB3. Hyde, Collins, and Edmonds will be popular value options. Be sure to check Seattle backfield updates before kick-off regarding Carson and Collins.

My favorite angle I’ve read so far is that Jacob Hollister could be a sneaky good play. His snaps were trending upwards until last week when he suffered an in-game injury and lost work to Greg Olsen. He is a full-go now, so the usage could swing back his way. Will Dissly is also in the mix. Dan Arnold might have similar potential as a low-priced guy, because the other two Cardinals TEs have been on the injury report this week.

The depth WRs to consider for Seattle are David Moore, who is somewhat expensive for his role, and Freddie Swain, who is less consistent but much cheaper on DK. For Arizona, the WR4 is Andy Isabella, who has not been involved much recently but does have high upside. The DSTs will be low-rostered and might be one of the keys to differentiating from the field. Shootouts present more opportunities for sacks and turnovers which lead to the TDs we seek from a DST. I will update once ownership projections are available.

(UPDATED) Ownership:

Murray and Wilson are each projected between 16 – 20% for CPT. Very similar range for FD MVP as well.
The “lead” backs both offer leverage if they can get some red zone opportunities. Drake (<6%) and Hyde (<4%) both have an outside shot at multiple TDs.
Both DSTs are in the 4 – 9% range for total ownership. Kickers are 9 – 12%. Mixing these in more than the field makes sense, but limit exposure per lineup.

DK Values: