The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Thursday Night Football game.
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| Arizona | Rank | @ | Seattle | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 27.5 | Implied Total | 30.5 | ||
| 29.6 | 7 | Points/Gm | 32.2 | 1 |
| 23.3 | 9 | Points All./Gm | 29.6 | 28 |
| 68 | 6 | Plays/Gm | 64.3 | 17 |
| 67.7 | 29 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 73.1 | 32 |
| 47.1% | 7 | Rush% | 37.1% | 26 |
| 52.9% | 26 | Pass% | 62.9% | 7 |
| 39.1% | 8 | Opp. Rush % | 35.4% | 1 |
| 60.9% | 25 | Opp. Pass % | 64.6% | 32 |
- Under Pete Carroll, Seattle has a league-best 21-3 record (17-6-1 ATS) in home prime time games.
- Under Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals are a league-best 8-2-2 against the spread as a road team.
- Games involving Seattle average 137.4 offensive plays per game, second in the league.
- Games involving Arizona average 135.7 per game, third in the league.
- Seattle leads the league in touchdowns scored from outside of the red zone (11) while Arizona is second (10).
- Kyler Murray is the first quarterback with a rushing touchdown in five consecutive games since 1956. The record is six straight games set in 1950 by Johnny Lujack.
- Murray is second in the league with 26 runs of 10 or more yards, which are 10 more than any other quarterback has on the season.
- Murray is averaging 9.4 yards per pass attempt on first downs (second) and 6.5 yards per attempt on all other downs (31st). That 2.9-yard differential is the largest in the league.
- Russell Wilson leads the NFL in passer rating on first and second down passes (120.8), completing 73.7% of his passes for 8.9 yards per attempt and 21 touchdowns to four interceptions.
- On third downs, Wilson’s 52.2 rating is ahead of just Sam Darnold and Joe Flacco, completing 52.3% of his passes for 5.6 Y/A and three touchdowns to five interceptions.
- Over the past four weeks, Seattle has allowed 6.3 sacks plus turnovers per game offensively, the most in the league. After 3.8 per game over their opening five games.
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Kyler Murray (TRUST): Murray has been a top-10 scorer in every game this season and has finished first or second at his position in each of his past three games. That includes a 37.1 point performance when these teams played in Week 7 when Murray threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns while adding on 67 yards and a score rushing. Seattle is allowing 19.9 passing points per game (31st). They are 15th in passing points allowed per pass attempt (0.44), but face 44.8 pass attempts per game, the most in the league. Even though Jared Goff was not a top scorer last week versus Seattle, he still threw for 302 yards and 8.2 yards per pass attempt.
Russell Wilson (TRUST): The odds of Wilson sustaining a touchdown rate over 10% for the entire season was always overly lofty and we have seen him fall back to pack in that regard over the past two weeks. Last week, Wilson threw zero scores with a season-low 6.7 yards per pass attempt. It was the first time this season that Wilson failed to reach 20 fantasy points, so there is no reason to believe the sky is falling. Wilson has been under pressure on 47.4% of his dropbacks the past two weeks after 34.9% prior. We have seen the Seattle offense be an issue in the past that Wilson has overcome and he still ranks fourth in the league with 7.8 Y/A under pressure.
Arizona is 19th in the league in passing points allowed per game (16.0) and have allowed over 20 fantasy points to the past three quarterbacks they have faced, including 29.9 to Wilson in that 71-point overtime game between these teams in Week 7. Look for Wilson to bounce back as a top-five option.
Running Back
Cardinals RBs: Kenyan Drake returned to the lineup and played 52% of the snaps last week against Buffalo. Although Chase Edmonds played 49% of the snaps and made the snap shares here much tighter than Drake had pre-injury, Drake led the backfield with 17 touches for 109 yards. Edmonds turned his 11 touches into 77 yards himself against a Buffalo defense that is 22nd in yards allowed per game to backs.
Seattle is a bit tougher, ranking ninth in that category (117.8 yards per game) and seventh in yards per carry allowed to the position (3.7 YPC). Drake was injured during the game when these teams met in Week 7 after 15 touches for 41 yards before Edmonds cleaned things up with 145 yards on 12 touches, orbiting seven receptions for 87 yards. Seattle has allowed a rushing touchdown in every game this season, but Drake is a volume-based RB2 who has posted just 11.8 receiving points total on the season. Edmonds is a RB3/FLEX in reception-based formats.
Carlos Hyde: Hyde is returning to the lineup this week while Chris Carson remains sidelined on a short week. Travis Homer is also sidelined, leaving DeeJay Dallas is the compliment to Hyde and potential receiving back. Hyde turned 18 touches into 76 yards and a touchdown when these teams played in Week 7 prior to injuring his hamstring. Hyde becomes a touchdown-dependent RB2, but one in a potentially high-scoring game.
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins (TRUST): Hopkins enters the week second at the position in catches per game (7.4) and yards per game (95.7) among all wideouts. He has exchanged blow up games for WR4 games over the past several weeks and has yet to have over 100 yards in back-to-back games, but this is as good of a spot as any to change that. Seattle is allowing 21.7 points per game to opposing lead wideouts (31st), including a 10-103-1 line to Hopkins on 12 targets back in Week 7.
Christian Kirk: After a season-high 30.8% target in Week 9, Kirk dipped back down to 18.8% last week. Just twice this season has he reached a 20% team target share, which puts Kirk on the scoring dependent side of things. In four games without a touchdown, Kirk has been the WR54 on average as opposed to the WR19 on average in his four weeks with a score. But if chasing a score or points in general for a wideout, this is the matchup to do so. Seattle is allowing league-highs in receptions (21.7) and yardage (269.8) per game to wideouts, including a 5-37-2 line to Kirk on eight targets in the first meeting. Kirk has scoring upside here as a matchup-based WR3 option.
D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett: Obviously, everyone here will be circling what played a few weeks ago when Arizona chose to use Patrick Peterson heavily on Metcalf (2-23-0) and let Lockett go wild (15-200-3). In that game, Seattle targeted Peterson’s coverage just four times while they threw 16 times at Dre Kirkpatrick for 13 completions, 136 yards, and two scores.
While Arizona won the game and limited Metcalf in the process, will they treat that approach as a success or will they change things up?
We also have Lockett potentially dealing with a knee sprain on a short week. That is not something anticipated to keep him off the field, but he did not practice on Tuesday, so keep tabs on him. That Arizona matchup in Week 7 was the only time Lockett has been a top-30 scoring receiver in his past six games, but he fits the archetype of wide receiver that has had the most success versus Arizona this season even removing his high-scoring Week 7. The other top-20 scoring games against the Cardinals outside of Lockett have been posted by Cole Beasley, Jamison Crowder, Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, and Robby Anderson.
Other bigger-bodied wideouts such as Kenny Golladay (6-57-1) and DeVante Parker (6-64-0) have had double-digit points against Arizona, but not top-shelf efforts. I would expect Metcalf to have an improved line and Lockett a reduced one compared to their initial efforts in Week 7, but the matchup still favors Lockett if he is close to healthy.
Larry Fitzgerald: Fitz has just one WR3 or better scoring week this season and I bet you can guess which game it came in. When these teams met in Week 7, Fitzgerald secured all eight of his targets for 62 yards. Those 62 yards were a season high and Fitz has not yet scored a touchdown this season, so there is not much of a ceiling here to latch onto, but Fitz is a floor-based FLEX option in PPR formats.
David Moore: It is easy with Moore. Did he score a touchdown? In his four games with a touchdown, Moore has been the WR28, WR14, WR30, and WR21. In his other five games, the WR66, WR118, WR53, WR109, and WR71. In the first matchup he caught all three of his targets for 54 yards.
Tight End
Seattle TEs: After weeks of losing snaps, Greg Olsen led the team with 72% of the snaps last week and ran a pass route on 66.7% of the team dropbacks, his highest share since Week 5. After a small surge with 14 pass routes per game Weeks 7-9, Jacob Hollister ran just four pass routes Sunday while Will Dissly ran six. The trio of Seattle tight ends combined for a 7-78-0 line in the first matchup with Dissly leading the way with 38 yards. Everyone here is a TE2 option hoping to get a touchdown based on attachment to Wilson.
This article is normally behind a members-only paywall, but is 100% free this week as part of Sharp Football’s 2020 Free Week.
Don’t miss out: Join Free Week, where anyone can get total access to Warren Sharp’s NFL betting recommendations and our premium fantasy football for all of Week 11.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
ARI at SEA | ATL at NO | PIT at JAX | DET at CAR | CIN at WFT | NE at HOU | PHI at CLE | TEN at BAL | MIA at DEN | NYJ at LAC | GB at IND | DAL at MIN | KC at LVR | LAR at TB
