The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 11 Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings Sunday afternoon game.
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| Dallas | Rank | @ | Minnesota | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | Spread | -7.5 | ||
| 21 | Implied Total | 28.5 | ||
| 22.7 | 23 | Points/Gm | 26.2 | 15 |
| 32.2 | 32 | Points All./Gm | 27.4 | 23 |
| 73.4 | 1 | Plays/Gm | 58.9 | 31 |
| 66.2 | 22 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 66.6 | 24 |
| 37.1% | 28 | Rush% | 50.6% | 4 |
| 62.9% | 5 | Pass% | 49.4% | 29 |
| 47.8% | 30 | Opp. Rush % | 42.2% | 18 |
| 52.2% | 3 | Opp. Pass % | 57.8% | 15 |
- Dallas is a league-worst 1-8 against the spread this season.
- Every Minnesota home game has gone over the game total this season, one of just two teams (Detroit).
- Since their Week 7 bye, Minnesota has allowed opponents to score on just 28.6% (6-of-21) of their drives, fifth in the league. Prior to the bye, that mark was 61.3% (38-of-62), 32nd in the league.
- The Cowboys have scored a touchdown on 2-of-47 drives without Dak Prescott under center.
- Dallas quarterbacks have completed 7-of-18 passes (38.9%) for 26 yards and one touchdown to three interceptions inside of the red zone since losing Dak Prescott.
- 41.2% of the yardage allowed by the Cowboys has come via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
- Minnesota leads the league with 5.8 yards per first down run play.
- Dallas is allowing 4.8 yards per first down run play (29th).
Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins: Cousins is currently sporting a career-high 6.9% touchdown rate while leading the league in yards per pass attempt (8.8 Y/A) and yards per completion (13.3 yards). The only thing that has gotten in his way for fantasy is that he is averaging 29.8 drop backs per game, which is 36th at the position. Dallas should have no trouble aiding efficiency as they are 32nd in passing points allowed per attempt (0.56) and touchdown rate (6.9%) despite ranking 15th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.1 Y/A).
Cousins has had 17 or more points in three of his past four games, but has had just one QB1 scoring week this season with fewer than 30 pass attempts. Cousins is a solid streaming option with upside should the pass attempts come, but Minnesota should also have no issues moving the football on the ground here as well to potentially limit overall volume.
Andy Dalton: After missing the past two games due to a concussion and then being placed on COVID-IR, Dalton is returning to the lineup this week. Dalton has averaged 4.9 yards per pass attempt and 3.9 yards per pass attempt in his two starts this season. I have a hard time believing he is that lowly of a passer, especially with these weapons, but Minnesota has started to turn the corner a bit defensively, allowing 6.2 yards per pass attempt since their bye against Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and, of course, Nick Foles. The back end of the Minnesota defense is still nothing to be scared of on paper and I expect Dalton to be better than what he showed in his first two starts, but he is still stuck as a QB2 option that requires a large step of faith to turn to as a starter in 1QB formats and DFS.
Running Back
Dalvin Cook (TRUST): Coming off a career-high 34 touches on a short week may have some lag for Cook, but this is as good of a spot as you can whip up for any back, let alone one of Cook’s caliber. As a huge home favorite, Cook is drawing a Dallas defense that is 30th in rushing points allowed per game (17.9) to backs and faces 29.6 touches per game from opposing backfields (29th). Cook had his first game without a touchdown last week, Dallas has allowed lead backs to reach the end zone on the ground six times over their past six games.
Ezekiel Elliott: After averaging 22.3 points per game in five games alongside Dak Prescott, Elliott turned in 8.8 points per game over his four weeks prior to the bye with a game high of 80 yards from scrimmage. Elliott closed as the RB39, RB35, and RB30 in his past three games played. The usage has still been there, with Elliott reaching 20 touches in every game but this season and he is second among all running backs in routes run per team drop back (61.8%).
Minnesota has not allowed a rusher to clear 75 yards on the ground since Week 2, but have allowed 97 total yards to D’Andre Swift and 102 yards to Jamaal Williams in their previous two games prior to facing a Bears offense that started a wide receiver at running back Monday Night. You are playing Elliott if you have him, but he is a volume-based RB2 as a road underdog.
Wide Receiver
Adam Thielen (TRUST): Thielen has 12 catches for 159 yards over the past four games with a game of 51 yards, but carries as strong as scoring upside in the league, corralling nine touchdown passes and leading all wide receivers with 13 end zone targets on the season. 35.9% of Thielen’s fantasy points have come via touchdown production, the highest dependency among the top-50 scorers at the position. But if we are chasing efficiency and scoring potential from a wide receiver, we are in the right place.
Dallas is 32nd in the league in allowing opposing wide receivers to score on 8.9% of their targets, allowing the most points per target (2.18) to the position while allowing 8.8 yards per target to receivers (24th). Dallas has lost Trevon Diggs to a foot injury, but is expected to get Chidobe Awuzie back in the lineup for the first time since Week 2. Thielen is a touchdown-based WR1.
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson has matched or bested Thielen in targets in three of the past four games, but he does not have the touchdown equity of Thielen, receiving just one end zone target this season compared to 13 for Thielen. That does not give Jefferson the out to save low yardage games brought on by the lack of passing volume this offense has when leading in games.
In his seven games since being inserted into the lineup, Jefferson has three top-10 scoring weeks and another three at WR53 or lower. But when Jefferson does hit, he hits big, with four 100-yard games and turning in 18.1 yards per catch. Dallas has allowed a league-high in passing touchdowns on throws over 15 yards downfield, keeping Jefferson as a boom-or-bust WR2.
Amari Cooper: After losing Prescott, Cooper has turned in games of 7-79-1, 7-80-0, 1-5-0, and 5-67-0. He has still managed to find his way to double-digit PPR points in every game outside of facing a strong boundary corner in James Bradberry and Darius Slay. There is no one here on the Minnesota secondary that is that type of threat. While Cooper has found footing as floor-based WR2 still, his ceiling moments have dried up like all of the playmakers in this offense.
CeeDee Lamb: After opening the season with six games of having at least five receptions and 8.2 targets per game, Lamb has secured 8-of-17 targets for 98 yards and a touchdown over his past three games. Dalton has targeted Lamb a team-high 19 times while under center to offer some floor assistance here. Lamb is still a WR3 option, but he has not been a top-24 scorer since losing Prescott after three such weeks with the QB1 under center.
Michael Gallup: Gallup was targeted 19 times the past two weeks from Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert, but Gallup is fourth on the team with 10 targets from Dalton while he has targeted Lamb 19 times, Cooper 18 times, and Elliott 12 times. Gallup has a high scoring week of WR34 since losing Prescott with three of those four games as the WR70 or lower. Minnesota is 25th in the league in completion rate allowed on deep passes (48.2%) if wanting to chase the matchup allowing Gallup to cash in on a deep opportunity, but he is in WR4/FLEX territory.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz: Schultz has seen 15 targets come his way the past two games, but like Gallup, Schultz was not a popular target for Dalton, receiving just nine of the 91 targets that the veteran quarterback has dealt out on his limited sample. Minnesota is allowing a league-high 9.7 yards per target to opposing tight ends, but have allowed just three touchdowns to the position. Schultz is a TE2.
MIN TE: Irv Smith Jr. missed Monday night with a groin injury, so we will have to follow his status throughout the week. With Smith sidelined, Kyle Rudolph received a season-high five targets (4-63-0). Dallas has faced just 5.9 targets per game to tight ends (fifth) since wideouts are typically having their way with them, but have allowed a touchdown on 9.4% of the targets to tight ends, 28th in the league.
This article is normally behind a members-only paywall, but is 100% free this week as part of Sharp Football’s 2020 Free Week.
Don’t miss out: Join Free Week, where anyone can get total access to Warren Sharp’s NFL betting recommendations and our premium fantasy football for all of Week 11.
More Week 11 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet:
ARI at SEA | ATL at NO | PIT at JAX | DET at CAR | CIN at WFT | NE at HOU | PHI at CLE | TEN at BAL | MIA at DEN | NYJ at LAC | GB at IND | DAL at MIN | KC at LVR | LAR at TB
